Engorgeous George

I acgree we need to immediately nurture those countrieds who seekfair trade with little or no protectionism. There will still necessarily be imbalances based on market size and the fact that we are a wasteful consumer nation addicted to spending so balance is not a realistic goal, but fair trade is. We need to signal that immediately by engaging with Isreal, Taiwan, Vietnam and welcoming the overtures of India and the E.U.

Maybe for a day with a one time buy of military harware, but certainly not on an ongoing basis.

My hope would be that we enter into negotiations with those who ahve made reasonable offeers, and we do so expeditiously. Trump seems to need more. Hhe needs not just reasonable concessions, but he seems to need som ebending of the knee, some groveling, some praise, some admission of past wrong doing. He seems to have ego caught up, as is the norm for him. I say set that aside, take what wins there are in the hope that it spawns more wins. My retirement is not there for his ego gratification, or at least it is not from my perspective. I worked 50 years for my retirement, it is mine and not his bargaining chip.

A bit of good news in a sea of uncertainty is always welcome.

I suspect and hope you are correct. As for being certain enough to bet, well I am generally not a betting man, not anymore. (I do get that your use of that term was simply an expression )

Perhaps you could have gone with Mr. Hankey's identical twin.

Tim has the same impediment as does Trump. They both cannot help themselves but to speak in absolutes when the world is much more subtle and varied. They are the obverse and reverse sides of the same coin.

I am not active in the Market. I have a brother who is a day trader so i follow the swings for conversational purposes..

Professionals I have spoken with have told me 40%. I have gone up to 50% occassioanlly, but not routinely. For instance if I am on vacation and miss my cutting day, or we get a few days of rain and I cant cut it and it gets a bit out of hand I have gotten away with cutting 50%. I think doing that regualrly would stress it too much. I agree 40% to 33% is probably better, but I know folks have other priorites than lawn care and they like to cut less often, if they can. I do raise my mower up a notch or two during July and August. During the hot dry months its better.

As usual on Monday morning I will be at the gym and then out for a paddle. I will miss the market open and not see it until around 12 Mountain time. That should prove interesting. I do enjoy the news blackout while I go through the early part of my day. I see folks with their ear buds and phones in the gym and at the reservior. For me that would ruin the serenity of the morning. I'm glad padding weather has finally arrived. Otherwise when I return from just the gym my wife has the news on and 10:00 or so is too early for that for me.

I believe the key is to never cut more than 50% of the length at any one cutting. If you cut your grass when it reaches five inches cutting it to 3 inches is fine. If you let your rass grow to 7 inches cutting it back to 3 inches is damaging.

I see where Trump states we (meaning America) have been the "whipping post" for China and others on tariffs, but no longer. It seems clear to me that Trump does not understand the concept of the whipping post. It seems he thinks the post itself got whipped. The post itself made out just fine. Sure it may have gotten some splattered blood, sweat and tears, but the post did not get whipped. Donald seems to think it did. Here's a clue Donald, it was the folks tied to the whipping post who had it bad not the post itself.

Off to shovel the snow and then to the gym. I am somewhat bouyed this morning in that my investment losses are not to a portion equal to the market drops. I got hit, but not hurt, thus far. If the costs of Trump's policies stop where they are right now I can bear it. I am not convinced, however, that the total loss is yet known. Maybe Monday will give us some indication.

For some of them is far more accurate. Because in some instances, many perhaps, the tariffs are partially based upon trade deficits would be far more accurate. My thinking was not flawed. i have already acknowledged the defects, from your point of view and mine as well in Trump's structuring of these tariffs. In fact i set out those difficulties or what I would term flaws before you did so in your more univiersal opposition to all things Trumpublican. My post ws in recognition that across the seas we have counterparts, real people with real needs and real fears, just like us, who are being effected, just like us, and who may pressure their governments, just like us, for action. My position on tariffs is that if they are indeed reciprocal in the strictest interpretation of that term, and if we understand that some protectionism by foriegn countries not based on trade concerns or industry concerns but on legitimate health concerns will not be overturned by tariffs but by cahnging American food production standards and practicesd, that reciprocal tariffs are justified. They may be the only way to keep others from seeking unfair advantgqage. Tehy will not give us advantage, we will suffer, but they will prevent long term suffering of unfair imbalance being institutionalized.

So. I wonder how the world is percieving all of this today. The first reaction seems to have been anger and national pride. Anger because this will hurt their economies and national pride because they will not be dictated to by the orange narcissist. Still, at some point they are going to be confronted with their own shrinking versions of their 401K's. Will they thenbe willing to reevaluate their policies to get a bit of a return to some normalcy? will they make some concessions? It is difficult to say. I live in the American bubble so i see how unhappy we are with our markets tumbling. I can only wonder how others around the world feel and are reacting. Sure, I can look at their news feeds but that is a far cry from hearing neighbors and friends reacting over dinner, at workor out and about.

Putting your life, wealth, and sacred honor on the line. You are just like a signer of the Decalration of Independence. Just like a Ranger scaling Pointe Du Hoc. Thank you for your service

Yeah, and the Puffins are next if they don't bend the knee.

Futures currently down 1100. that breaks through the psychological barrier at 40,000. Who knows what the breaking of that numerical threshold will do to the psyches of investors? I know i will hold off making an offer on a home right now until I get a sense of where this all shakes out. Off to the gym, and then maybe to bike if it warms up a bit.Market panic can happen without my input.

They supported Oswald Cobblepotts. Likely they are involved in the fentanyl trade. They are bad birds. Oh sure, they put out that they are innocuous creatures with Happy Feet, but when they get high on herring they are capable of just about anything.

Dow future is down for tomorrow, but currently only 90 points. I suspect that will get worse in the next few hours. 90 points down would almost be a victory.

As i said, this is not my area, yet I find your analysis interesting. It is clear to me that eventually a new equilibrium will be reached. When and what the terms of that equilibrium are alludes my imagination or speculation. I just hope that the process of reachign that point does not have unintended or unanticipated consequences, like the dollar no longer being the world's default currency or allowing China greater inroads into our hemisphere, or alienating longstanding and critical allies. Regardless of my fears we have jumped, and unless we can learn to fly we are going to find out if we have the strength to land on our feet and walk away.

Seems maybe some questioning of Trump on the campaign trail may have been beneficial. Maybe his terms could have been brought into focus. In the end, though, I don't believe a politicians puffery on the campaign trail. Gotchas based upon such don't particulary register with me either, though I do take note as they reinforce my general sceptism and who does not like their world view confirmed?

Multiple jokes tee'd up here. I am going to ignore the one about old fashioned Chinese sailing ships called junks and go with I am german/irish, and so is my junk

An argument can be made that Trump did not start this tariff war, that he is simply joining in and now fighting a war which has raged against America for decades with us doing nothing. As for balance, to my understanding he looks at trade disparity and wants trade equality ignoring the fact that we are a consumer people. The tariffs are not directly reciprocal, but rather are that and a function of equalizing the trade imbalance. I would argue directly recioprocal tariffs, phased in with a bit more lead time, and with a stated policy that we will phase them out reciprocally might have been merited. The current policy is undefined as to phase out or return to normalcy and further they seek to accomplish some non-trade goals such as border security. It is a bridge too far for me, but then I am more or less a functional illiterate when it comes to economics and world trade markets. I am sure those better educated and informed can correct me where I'm wrong and I may learn a thing or two. (Then again, maybe you can't teach this old dog any new tricks as I am in the process of even forgetting my old tricks.)