lesjroza

Currently 1st = 2k 2nd = 750 I'm not lying by saying this is the rare time I hope my league mate sees my post and recognizes who I am

Nice on the guys involved working it out! I think that's ideal for everybody. I personally want to take pressure off the 'mish in all leagues. In most its an easy agreement and avoids potential league turmoil, but 1 league I'm in the 'ship has a running dynasty pot. Money comes off the top every year until somebody wins 2 in a row then they are going to get a very big payday. I was up by 40+ going into the night with my opponent only having Burrow left and Burrow has never scored 40 in the format............. ever. I want to work something out where maybe this year split changes a little, but I get designated champ, mainly to keep that dynasty pot in play for me next year. I'm just not sure how to approach it with the other owner.

Interesting. Do you personally commish a league or leagues and you feel pressure to make a call now? or tomorrow? or by the end of the week?

This is not an attack in any way, I'm just curious. Why do any commish's (others can chime in) feel the need to decide anything right now? What will truly suck for some beyond this tragedy in the first place, is if they are in a few different meaningful games where each goes against them based on decisions by seperate commissioners using different logic. I personally think it's best to see if a general standard emerges to fall back on rather than be in a hurry to be the first to have a great solution. Just my opinion, Les

No worries, all good sir!

I can understand how you could read it that way and many probably would but that was not my intent at all. If you doubt it, that's fair, but in addition to my saying its not the case, look at the last post I made on the topic prior to today which I have copied below. I would not have to go very far to find a post anybody made on pretty much every topic to "prove somebody wrong" including myself. These days I don't make it over here very often and I limit the posts I make to topics I find especially interesting. Often times I'm unsure myself, but hope someone else can add value by talking through it with me, for myself but also the benefit of those who are taking their valuable time to be here at the moment. I like it when I get push back with reasoning whether I reply or not, it helps my thought process. In this case I didn't understand the valuation implied by dynasty trades I was seeing with Brown to be perfectly honest. The pushback I got regarding it coming from the specific individuals who were doing it made me understand the other side better, not agree, but understand which is every bit as important. "Ok, don't think this is my last post on Brown because you convinced me, or because I'm letting you get away with penciling him in for 8 TDs next year (2021 Tyreek 9, Diggs 10, Cooper/Lockett/Diontae 8). We'll just agree to disagree and enjoy a solid debate. Honestly, I thought my take was obvious, but the pushback from you and some others I respect here does give me a bit of pause. That's as far as I'll go though, I'm not taking action and its very unlikely Brown will be on any teams I draft this year. I usually don't come back to this type of banter the following year and highlight out how it turned out, but I'll try to remember to do so in this case regardless of whom turns out to be correct. Cheers! "

Interesting. Is that a single format or amalgamation of all drafts regardless of format (or are all the same anyway at RT Sports)? Do you know if that is the one you posted about a few times last year where some guys looked pretty attractive that includes all drafts in the average? Because its possible drafters prior to the NFL Draft and free agency could be inclusive in the ADP and its possible players following news right now have a very different ADP, but the earlier drafts may still be more heavily weighted than they will be in the summer. Definitely not saying its not correct, just asking................... and Weepaws this is the type of discussion I'm referring to as potentially helpful for some. Not all newbs would consider listed ADP may not actually reflect more current averages.

You are entitled to your opinion sir and I defend your right to voice it! In my opinion the value of player at ANY given moment for drafting purposes should include different types of risks to the production outlook. In January some of the biggest to consider are free agency and draft. If you will read through the above posts ALL of the risk outlook was discussed and promoted as a reason for my own valuation so the fact that it was January is irrelevant in that sense. Additionally, I do not see myself hating on Axeelf or anybody else for their opinion, which I appreciate, but rather intend on highlighting differences as illumination of topics that I think should be of interest to people on this bored AND to help me test my own valuations. Sometimes its specific players, sometimes it process. I've posted previously about the fact that when I began playing, many, many yrs ago I found much wisdom here at FFToday that was helpful to me. My goal is to accomplish the same for others, not that they should follow my opinions, or consider my opinions wisdom but to consider the reasoning as well as the opposing thoughts. I do not make posts such as I like guy A or guy B better and leave it at that. Finally, I will say that I often AGREE with Axeelf, and to me, while I feel good about it when it happens, a post in agreement is rarely useful since often there is no debate to illuminate. I will, go further and say when I do see a positive post from Axeelf and a few others about a situation I like I get even more excited and the Last thing I want to do is highlight for others when my name is literally on the post. As I see it true wisdom comes from the friction of opposing viewpoints Respectfully, Les

I do think things have changed but I also think EVERYTHING that has changed was very, very predictable and for me personally the total outcome for Brown was actually BETTER than what I had discounted........... because the Lions did not draft a rookie QB who then would have put the entire recieving corps at risk of, at a minimum, back half of the year super inefficient passing. So I too could see him now in the 7th, though I wouldn't take him ahead of those 3 I listed every time. I would take Gabriel ahead in most circumstances, and depending how the top of my draft fell I could see Edmonds and Freiermuth being an option over him potentially. But your question hits on another thing I wanted to flesh out back then actually but I had already said I wouldn't post any further regarding him until an update. How do YOU (or anyone else chime in) discount for the possibility/probability that there are likely changes to situation for use in early drafts?? I'm not all that smart, but even I saw the additions to receiver corps as almost a certainty given the cap and draft capital available. Will you take a player in an early draft with the assumption nothing changes and then discount a change completely at the point it happens?

Ok, so its previously promised update #1 time regarding Amon Ra, not because I want to take a victory lap, but because I think this is still a very, very, relevant discussion not only this player this season, but conceptually for future early drafters, especially prior to free agency and the NFL Draft. Assuming I remember we'll check in again right before the season update #2 and then post regular season to discuss how it turned out. Anybody who wants can check this thread above from the start to get a flavor for the discussion but regarding Amon-Ra it was posited that he may/should be drafted in rounds 2/3 in early drafts. This discussion took place in January. I offered I wouldn't touch him before round 8 and listed a couple of reasons. Axe Elf called me out and said he would draft him in round 2 or 3. A healthy discussion ensued that was much more in depth, but I generally listed the risks associated with taking him that high. Others chimed in taking either side. I was a bit taken aback by a couple of the posters who agreed with Axe Elf because they are generally people who I respect and always want to hear their thoughts, whether I agree or not. Fast forward to June. It is very possible Brown will catch fire at some point in the pre-season and rise significantly, its even more possible he will dramatically outperform his current draft ADP regardless, but for now everybody who thought I was too pessimistic about an 8th round valuation may want to check ADPs before you draft. ADPs can be all over the board this time of year and pretty messed up places like MFL due to all the different types of drafts that happen, but FF Calculator has Brown at 8.12 for Full PPR- 12 team leagues. The players going directly before are Gabriel Davis, Chase Edmonds, Pat Freiermuth. https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr So, my questions for those who were on the rd 2-3 bandwagon, including Axe Elf. Have you changed your mind? Do you think the market is badly misguided at this point? For instance do you see Gabriel/Edmonds/Freiermuth in completely different much lower valuation territory than Brown? Have you changed your mind about his value based on some of the risks coming to fruition, or for any other reason? Do you consider him a huge value you would now take in the 6th/7th to make sure you get him rather than targeting say one of those other 3 going right before him?

Ok, don't think this is my last post on Brown because you convinced me, or because I'm letting you get away with penciling him in for 8 TDs next year (2021 Tyreek 9, Diggs 10, Cooper/Lockett/Diontae 8). We'll just agree to disagree and enjoy a solid debate. Honestly, I thought my take was obvious, but the pushback from you and some others I respect here does give me a bit of pause. That's as far as I'll go though, I'm not taking action and its very unlikely Brown will be on any teams I draft this year. I usually don't come back to this type of banter the following year and highlight out how it turned out, but I'll try to remember to do so in this case regardless of whom turns out to be correct. Cheers!

This is a big part of where we differ. IMO Brown's target totals (for a total of 5 games) WILL NOT be sustained into next year. Here are his totals by week 4 5 1 8 8 7 - 5 bye 6 4 4 12 12 11 11 11 10 119 7.4 Is it that Brown took a sudden leap in perceived ability so they had to get him more looks? Or was it the lack of Hockenson/Swift on the field during those weeks? Take Brown back down to a 7-8 target a game avg, (which would still be above his avg the rest of the season) lose a couple of TDs which may instead go to Hock in the red zone and or Swift as a playmaker, and see how the points begin to melt away. I would absolutely concede that IF Brown averages 11 targets per game in '22 he is likely to be worth higher than where I'm willing to draft him now, but honestly still think it would be a risk to take him in the 3rd. I just don't think it's going to happen even without consideration of any pass catching investments Detroit may make On Boyle vs a rookie QB, obviously we have no clue for now, but all things being equal in a garbage time environment where Ds are playing loose so as to shorten the game I'd take the avg backup QB with experience over most any rookie QB. Non - elite rookies make the type of mistakes Ds are playing loosely to take advantage of and have a hard time sustaining drives for any length of time though may be more likely to make a splash play based on athletic talent. It's also realistic that if the rook is a running QB............ the passing volume is way, way down even IF the efficiency were high. Congrats on your prediction if you benefitted! I personally drafted Brown in several best ball leagues based on the potential he could end up being useful as the WR depth chart was very unclear and I believed the team would be a haven for garbage time points. It worked out well for me, but the investment required for '22 makes it a very different bet.

just to backstop my thought process a bit, make of this what you will, but it should open some minds to consider the alternative viewpoint I probably didn't format it as very well to make the point but take a look and let it sink in This is from a full PPR with fairly conventional scoring, other leagues may differ slightly but not by much Amon Ra Hockenson Swift Week 1-12. WR 63 TE3 RB8 Week 13-17. WR 2 TE 39 RB90 (Played only 1 game) (Played only 1 game) Brown benefitted in a very big way from being the only realistic target due to injuries in the short/intermediate area for a team that was in a garbage time type atmosphere mostly.

Do you? Make your list of WRs Are you sure he is even the top target on the Lions.......................... which is what it takes to get him in the top 30 WRs IMO Of course we are talking about this prior to FA, and draft, but its hard for me not to strongly discount the possibility he ends up as even the WR1 on the Lions given potential additions, let alone the top target on the team given Hockenson and Swifts presence and I don't see him top 30 unless he is the top target on the Lions by a margin. Even then don't forget there could be a rookie QB starting for a portion of the year which historically would make even the top target a very inconsistent source of points. My primary point, rather than getting bogged down with exact ranks, it's very poor risk reward to be taking this guy high right now, many more ways to lose this one than win it prior to the season.

The elephant in the room regarding Amon-Ra is how much the environment that supported his target run changes this off-season I'm comfortable saying Detroit is going to have a bunch of changes, including some larger investments at the WR position than they have in Brown. FA signings, draft, and most likely both will be used to address the position and it would not be a shock for the Lions to address WR at the top of the 2nd or if they trade down in the first. There were not many healthy target options in Detroit (including Swift and Hock) for some of his run. Not to mention, its possible the Lions could be drafting and starting a rookie QB at some point in the season next year Just my opinion, but I wouldn't touch St Brown personally above the 8th round for now which means he won't be on any of my rosters for early drafts. Post NFL Draft and Free agency it makes a lot of sense to reevaluate but taking him now based on his statistical production in the last 1/3 of the year would be super high risk.

How would you expect them to put themselves in position to run the ball better, which is the expressed desire and does seem necessary? I guess they could have Diggs blocking more but that's not my own base case. We're all guessing here, and if you're not at least trying to be aware of the waves of change the boat is more likely to flip.

I think his pass catching role may not be the same. In another thread I posited about a quote I thought was interesting and I had changed my mind about a specific move I was considering..............that move was acquiring Knox for the 2nd half of the season where possible. I'm sure he'll do better than he did this week, but I fear its possible the focus may be more on blocking. As was mentioned in the thread, the RBs don't appear to be anything special but you don't need special if you commit to the run game with play calling and formations. Just my opinion but I do believe its possible, all other things being equal, Buffalo may have the TEs focus on blocking more. Injuries happen to pass catchers and that could change the trajectory but we shall see.

It's the time of year when catching the wave of even subtle change can be the difference between beating those guys in the league who think it all comes down to luck. This one caught my eye as potentially important and changed my mind about a specific move I was looking to execute. Curious if others see anything of import (and what) or nah? https://www.nfl.com/news/sean-mcdermott-on-bills-offensive-imbalance-adjustments-are-being-made?campaign=Twitter_atn The Bills have an imbalance problem most everyone could see coming from a year ago. Buffalo simply does not run the ball very effectively in the traditional sense, and it's catching up to the Bills. Buffalo averages the league's seventh-highest rushing yards per game as a team at 119.8, but the team's running backs are only responsible for 74.4 of those yards per contest. Quarterback Josh Allen has led the team in rushing in each of Buffalo's last two games, gaining 55 in a Week 8 win over Miami and finishing with 50 in the team's stunning loss to Jacksonville. Everyone can see Buffalo's offensive problem -- including the team's head coach Sean McDermott. It's not a new development, either. "I don't think it's just been the last couple of games," McDermott said, via NewYorkUpstate.com. "Start with the first game (this season against Pittsburgh). Look at that film. Go back to last year at the end of the season in particular. So yeah, that's where we're at." The Bills aren't in a good place in the rushing department because they aren't feared on the ground. Opposing defenses are more concerned about minimizing the damage done by Allen's arm and his receiving teammates, and keeping him from attacking defenses out of structure by taking off with the ball in his hands. Devin Singletary? Zack Moss? They might be quality backs, but they aren't causing sleepless nights because they aren't seeing a large enough volume to make much of a difference. Buffalo is a pass-first, run-later offense, and has been for about a full calendar year. The biggest issue with this current reality is it makes game-planning for the Bills a little bit easier for opposing defenses. As McDermott said, Pittsburgh did so effectively in Week 1, and both Miami and Jacksonville executed well enough to keep their games close against what is essentially a superior team. Tennessee did it too, though Allen was able to overcome those struggles with his arm for most of that contest before falling to the Titans. "I can promise you that adjustments are being made," McDermott said. "Whether you see them or not, that's what good teams do. It's just every season, you've got to continue to adjust with the team you have. This team is running its own race. Last season was last season. That team ran its own race. 2017 ran its own race. So the challenges this season may be a little bit different than the challenges last season." It's interesting that McDermott noted the 2017 Bills, his first trip to the postseason as Buffalo's head coach with a team that ended the league's longest active playoff drought at that time. Those Bills relied heavily on the running game, handing it to LeSean McCoy 287 times for 1,138 yards that year. But those Bills also saw their season end in the same stadium in which McDermott's current team suffered its most embarrassing loss in quite some time, and in similar low-scoring fashion. A few months later, Buffalo spent its first round pick on Allen, and before long, everything had changed. Perhaps they could use a bit of a blast from the past to get closer to the center of the run-pass differential, which currently stands at 40-60 on first down. "As coaches, that's what we get paid to do is to adjust, try and stay out in front of things the best you can," McDermott said. "And that's what my teammates, these players, these coaches look for me to do. And that's what we're doing."

Derrius Guice no longer on ice

Correct IMO! They have performed exceptionally poorly though the talent ratings, and perception seem have them middle of the pack. Multiple comments to the contrary were what stuck out to me in this thread as well. It isn't getting talked about, but while Fields has a better chance of making plays with the OL in its current state, there is also the chance that it stunts his development............. though that won't be a consideration when the jobs of NAGY and the whole from office are on the line.

Lance for me, but go with whatever your gut is telling you because I think both are solid specs this year. As for "why Lance?" in my case, there are lots of reasons actually but most are very debatable. I do think the idea that SF traded into that slot and had their choice of several QBs including Fields but they saw Lance as the best fit isn't in question. Conversely, Chicago needed a QB of the future desperately, and it was fortunate for them Fields fell to spot they could trade into because he has that kind of potential, but that isn't the same as him being their first choice of fit.

I think its an interesting idea and I enjoy your posts here which I know take time................... so I would play if there was enough interest. I wish we could figure out how you could be an owner as well. There are plenty of random number generators which could be of use but some of the powers do require additional information transmitted ahead and using randomness the tactical choice of when to use a power would be lost. It still could be fun the random way though, and you could be an owner.

As a Saints fan it must be even more annoying that having the quality and depth of targets was one of the things that made them a front runner to sign Tom Brady.

I'm not saying he has a huge value but, the contract is pretty friendly going forward. I just checked the contract on Over the Cap and honestly if they can't trade him for much I would think he is a realistic cut possibility in the off-season because there isn't much difference in cap impact between trade and cut and the Saints have cap issues anyway. IF another team values him............. and IF he doesn't require a new contract I could see a deal getting done pretty easily once he's healthy. Assuming OTC is correct he has ZERO gauranteed '22-'24, tiny roster and workout bonuses and 15 mil salary in '22 and '23 which IMO is manageable for most teams. Looking at his contract though I suspect at least some of this divide (that we aren't hearing about) is over $$$$, including lack of Saints flexibility, and contract going forward.

Of course I read pretty much everything you write! I did not realize the specific stats you quote but I knew he performed well for a short time because I had him on a couple of TE premium rosters believe it or not. I have no idea how the injury could affect him going forward though.