Ray_T

I dont think anyone here was suggesting they will be superbowl champs. but I do think they will be better than they were last year. the key question to ask is how much better will they actually be?

well, rush yards are worth double what pass yards. but Mahomes threw for 5250 yards last year. for the record neither fields or Lamar have ever put up more than 3300 yards passing in a season. fftoday projects Lamar to get around 3500 yards passing which is (for me) the top end of the range for him. they project 3200 yards passing for Fields which I think is high as well. it isnt too crazy as I have to think he improves from last year to this year with another year of experience but these kind of projections are difficult to get right. hes a low floor high ceiling player. probably risky to take this early. both QB's are capable of getting 1000 yards rushing in a year. but Mahomes usually gets around 300-350 yards himself and will still outproduce these guys on TD and pass yards. so I'd say Mahomes is by far the better play. another guy you may consider is Hurts. he puts up lots of rush yards and passes for a lot of yards. not quite what mahomes does but hes young so if hes a bit better throwing the ball than last year he could have a Mahomes like season. anyhow, good luck Josh Allen is very capable of putting up similar numbers to Mahomes if the team mends the fence with Diggs. If Diggs is a still a malcontent I'd avoid picking him this early.

ok I wouldnt drive it like that in a residential area but down a highway without a lot of traffic? Probably. Almost everyone wants to know what it feels like to be in a car like that going at top speed. When I was a kid I had a suped up car that I drove at 120 MPH on the highway a handful of times. Not the smartest move but it is what it is. I can also see the attraction of offroading. but not everyone dreams of a Jeep. some people dream of a Ferrari or Lambo. either way, you throw a pile of money at a kid at that age, its a guarantee stupid things will happen. sometimes its fast cars, sometimes drugs, sometimes parties, sometimes gambling..... the list goes on. I'm sure you can think of 10 or 20 other stupid things you can do at that age when you have more money than you know what to do with. its likely a lack of maturity. To be expected at that age. Not saying its a good thing but it shouldnt be unexpected. Not all young men have the maturity to control themselves at that age with that kind of bank account. Some older people cant even do it.

I have not run the numbers on this. but in a standard PPR league QB TD's are worth 4 points. so a PPR league where all TD's are worth 6 will create a bigger discrepency between the have and the have not's at QB. so if (for example) you were thinking about taking Mahomes and if you think he throws 40 TD's, the scoring difference from standard PPR to your league would be 80 points. This is very significant. and most QB's in the top 5are expected to get between 28 and 34 TD's Based on this alone if you believe the FFtoday projections online I would think Mahomes should go in early to mid round 2 in your league as in most formats he likely an early to mid third round pick or late 2nd round pick. to be clear, I have not run the numbers, but I'd think the tipping point is likely middle round 2 or possibly early round 2.. as per the FFtoday projections Mahomes is expected to outproduce on TD by 5-7 TD over all the other top 3 QBs, this 6 point TD rule gives a major advantage to drafting him if you are putting stock in the fftoday projections (which I have generally found to be fairly decent overall) so if you want to know if taking him in round 2 makes sense, I"d say it probably does. especially late in round 2. Early in round 2 its a lot more murky but its likely close enough that you are not likely going to significantly hurt your team by taking him if he produces anywhere close to the projected numbers for him. The 6 point TD really gives a significant advantage to QB's who throw a large number of TD's.

from that perspective, I never was under the illusion that he was gonna be a guy you use at the goal line unless you are doing an outside run or throwing the ball. from what I saw, he never had the power to move the pile in college so I didnt think this would be a strength in the pros. but I did think they'd use him as a scat back and send him out as an extra receiver in goal line situations to create some mismatches in the secondary. so pairing him up with a bruiser in the backfield seemed like an option that could work. but clearly it didnt as he never really lit it up on the TD.

Spanker! long time no see. I hope you're doing well. You should participate in the chat board sometime. cheers

if he was my WR2 I'd be very pleased. and this year it looks like it could happen.

Well, you give a kid a boatload of money that hes never seen before and this is one of the possible outcomes. If I was 22 and had the cash I'd buy a car like that and probably drive it like that too. Not the smartest move in the world... but thats what happens.

they are. This one reason why so many people are excited about Bijan. it also helps that Bijan is talented too.

he was actually decent that year(for a rookie). not spectacular, but decent. you normally expect rookies dont always break out in year 1 so I was encouraged. but after that it has been mediocre. He has shown no improvement in his game (at least from a fantasy perspective) and may have gotten worse. so yeah, big disappointment.

There is no question.... everyone was expecting far more from him than he has delivered so far. Myself included.

I think Kyler Murray at his best(statistically at least) is better than Tannehill at his best. But Tanehill is not in an offense where they are demanding he carry the team. They make it a 2 score game, they just run the ball a LOT and kill the clock. but last year Murray was looking like a bit of a headcase up to the point he got injured. but if you notice the game by game stats. Hopkins was still a decent WR when playing with a backup QB. I think he had a bad game in week 16 and from the look of it, I think that week 16 game was with a third string QB so I'd throw out that game as the QB play was likely so crappy that nobody was catching balls. I'd look at AJ Brown when he was catching Balls from Tannehill. This is along the lines of what I'd expect from Hopkins in that offense. I think they will use him the same way. Hopkins (assuming good health) will get at least 1000 yards receiving. If there is any concern for me, its in keeping good health.

well, they also typically run a pretty stripped down and basic version of an offense for rookie QB's in an attempt not to overwhelm them. sometimes this can contribute to mediocre to poor numbers for a rookie QB. I have found its not usually until year 2 or 3 that you really know what a rookie QB is capable of. Even then..... it also depends on how good a coach they have to work with as well. Either way, they should open a few things up for him this year and we will start to get a taste of what he can do.

This is sadly his best selling feature. but I do think he may break out this year. hes got a good set of WR and he started looking like a pro QB late last season. Thing is.... all the QBs at this point in the draft are going to have issues. I think This is the safer pick. Hopefully you wont have to start him too often. but in Superflex, you can start QB's in other flex spots (which is why QB went early and often in your draft) so you likely do have the ability to start 2 QB if he lights it up.

I heard he got banged up pretty good last season and I think it was shoulder surgery in the end. but he had other injuries he was rehabbing as well. I'd assume it was the shoulder that hasnt yet healed properly but I cannot say for sure.

Agreed. Helaire is serviceable and can start in a pinch. hes just not ideal. and on a rookie contract guys like that still make sense in terms of keeping them on the roster. if you had to sign him on the open market at much more than the rookie wage then you'd question whether you want him.

he is. a very poor man's Josh Allen. but hes not nearly as polished. honestly he reminds me a bit of Tim Teebow in some respects too. all the tools are in the toolbox but the first year starting will have some significant growing pains. his running ability will hold his head above water until his throwing can get up to speed. but that may take some time. if he breaks out it is likely next year. possibly the year after. But hes likely a better fantasy QB than he will be an actual QB due to that running ability. And despite the crappy team he does have some pretty good WR's to throw to. but from what I've seen of him, there will likely be issues with turnovers. or they will run the offense so conservative to protect him that the pass game wont do much but he will burn some teams with his legs. Hard to say exactly how this will play out. hes a Low floor high ceiling guy. The low floor is the scenario where he loses the starting job early (or doesnt even get the starting job) I guess the question is do you want this guy as your second QB? given the original posters situation, if he drafts near the turn, the ideal situation is he takes Pickett or Jones and then after the turn grabs Howell as a third QB. as this is a best ball superflex, there is no doubt he should have been on the QB early and often. By round 7 if you dont have 2 QB you are basically in some trouble. but at this point its damage control. you need a second QB who can actually play every game. Pickett will do that for you and I do like his chances of a breakout. If Howell slides to the next round he should be considered at that point just for his running upside.

I actually dont mind Mac Jones or Pickett. Pickett showed signs of being an actual QB late in the year last year. and now has 3 legit starting WR on the roster. I like his chances of a breakout. Mac Jones I think could easily bounce back. but he has another QB behind him on the depth chart who could potentially take the starting job from him which is a bit concerning. So if you want security Pickett isnt likely to lose his job. Hes your guy. but Mac Jones isnt bad either. I dont think much of Howell. I think he was a developmental QB at the time they drafted him and I dont think hes ready yet.

I guess the good news is... its not an ACL or an achilles or something of the like. there is still hope for him but I dont like seeing someone on the PUP before camp begins.

hes another guy who is recovering from an injury. not a good sign if hes on the PUP.

Hopkins or Burks? and did you get him?

I personally am hoping Burks can learn a thing or two just from watching Hopkins in practice. Burks is most definitely the future at WR for this team.

certainly possible. but the biggest downside is the team is terrible. if they are moving gibson into more of a pass catching role, he wont be affected as much by the poor team. he'll be a checkdown on almost every play if the WR cannot get open.

I love the player and the way he plays. I am a fan. but that injury makes me want to hold off for this year. in a keeper/dynasty league a rebuilding team can probably get him at a discount with the thought he'd be back to full speed next year and mediocre at best this year. but in redraft hes not the best candidate this year. He may start to perform at a better level in the second half of the season but you dont wanna hang your hat on that if you dont have to.

I agree. if his ADP is in round 9 (or if he drops into round 10 or later) and you are up to pick, hes a strong candidate. the rumours have been around that Gibson is to be replaced for a while. at some point it may actually happen. it may be a bit of a risk but the potential upside is there and if you whiff on a 9th or 10th round pick it wont make or break your team.