Ray_T

well, anything beyond 3 years should not be fully guaranteed. I figure he likely has at least 2 and possibly 3 years left in the tank. beyond that it gets real dicey. the way I'd write the contract is 3 years guaranteed. if his shelf life is only 2 years, eating one year on a contract isnt completely outrageous. 4th year becomes guaranteed if he plays x number of games over the first 3 years. or if hes still on the roster at the end (or the start) of 3 years (meaning if the team keeps him beyond 3 years the 4th year becomes guaranteed). 5th year not guaranteed or partial guarantee ( likely signing bonus portion only or a small amount of 5th year gets a guarantee) This way there is an out at the 3 and 4 year mark if he doesnt perform or cannot stay healthy. most teams have insurance policies on their top players that will cover the salary in the event of career ending injury. it is the cap hit that kills them in the event he cannot play.

I dont disagree. running QB's usually expire before age 30. some last longer, but its not typical. and given the # of games Jackson has missed due to injury already, I cant see him being the exception.

its in play if the colts sign him now. this is likely why they wait to sign him. or maybe Baltimore accepts that pick in lieu of 2 firsts. in that scenario it makes more sense for Baltimore to do a trade. Especially if they want to draft another QB.

in the end it really depends what Baltimore actually wants. the #20 pick in each of the next 2 years likely does not get them another QB. Thats what happens if they wait and then the colts sign him sometime after draft day. but the #4 overall pick..... that gets them a QB. the question is whether it gets them the QB they want. if they play ball now, the #4 overall pick is clearly in play. if they wait, that option is off the table when Indy makes their selection (or trades it away) They could acquire Minshew as a throw in along with a first. Then they have two QB's capable of starting. I could see Minshew playing well in that offense but its also possible he isnt the starter. another option is they trade for that #4 pick and get a player that fills a need elsewhere. then Acquire Zach Wilson. It would appear the Jets are keen to move on from him. They can probably get him cheap. Lots of options here, but it really depends what the Ravens want to do.

This is also a good point. but its also a case where the #4 overall pick may be worth 2 normal first round picks if another team signs him instead.

of course it is. All I am saying is.... if something happens here..... there is a fair chance they negotiate something because of the situation.

Well, The colts have the #4 overall pick I believe. why would they sign him now, when they can wait until the draft, spend their #4 overall pick and then send 2 first rounds for the following 2 years? in theory, with Lamar at QB those picks would be late first round picks. so 2 picks at lets say #20 overall and #22 overall is worth close to the #4 pick this year in what is considered to be a deep draft year. so there may be incentive to do a trade now to make sure they get that #4 overall pick which may be worth 2 firsts in other years. if Baltimore thinks they can get a good, young QB at #4 overall, maybe they make a deal to make sure they get the #4 overall pick. if they dont deal, then the Colts can just wait until draft day, draft their guy at #4 and then sign Lamar and give up 2 (presumbably lower value) first round picks. Thats my point.

I guess Lamar would have to be willing to back off the fully guaranteed contract thing. one other possible scenario is that he never wanted to stay in Baltimore and the outrageous ask on the contract was an attempt to make them move him. so it is possible that if the colts acquire him, a deal may be signed that is more in line with what the market is for his services.

regarding the last post I made... here is the link https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35972064/colts-mull-deal-qb-lamar-jackson-special-player

there is now talk that indy is looking at possibly doing something here. but it sounds like they dont want to part with 2 firsts. sounds like they want to make an offer to Baltimore.

well, the jones contract has complicated things. guaranteed or not, he is not gonna want to get paid less than him. ideally the fully guaranteed contract would be in the 35-38 mil range, but now that Jones has 40 mil (even though it is not fully guaranteed) I suspect Jackson wont be willing to take less than that even if fully guaranteed. realistic ..... not really but thats what his ego is telling me. he wont accept that.

The best comparable here is Wilson. At his best hes been a better QB than Jackson at his best, but he hasnt been that good since leaving seattle. thing is you pay a player for what they have done up to that point in their career, and Wilson was. Granted at 49 M per year Wilson has come nowhere close to proving value for that contract. Carr is in my mind close to being comparable in terms of value only. but he is a different kind of QB and not all people like him the way I do. hes purely a drop back QB so the people who would shop for Carr likely are not interested in Jackson and vice versa. Jones is a less proven version of Jackson. Not quite as athletic, so he doesnt run as much but also does not take as many hits. in terms of finding out where he belongs..... Watson -----> 5 year 46M/yr 230 M fully guaranteed Wilson -----> 5 year 49 M /yr 242 M but only 124 M guaranteed at signing. Jackson -----> TBD Jones ------> 4 year 160 M contract 81 M guaranteed I figure Jackson is below wilson and watson in terms of body of work at time of signing...... and better than jones. so we should (in theory) be looking at around 45 mil per year with just over 100 M guaranteed. if he wants a fully guaranteed contract, he likely needs to take a little less money per year like Watson did. (as compared to wilson who took less in terms of guarantees but got the larger annual paycheck. so if looking at fully guaranteed money only he should be looking at 5 years 40-43 M/yr if fully guaranteed. and this is just based on the analysis of comparable contracts that have come before this point using the assumption that Watson and wilson were better at time of signing and Jones inferior at time of signing in terms of body of work. personally I still feel a 5 year deal with a QB like him is a mistake, but I doubt any team is getting him without doing a 5 year deal based on the way Jackson has been spouting off to the media and social media.

I dont think hes tier 3. he has gotten his team to the playoffs consistently. at the very least, that makes him tier 2. Regardless, hes asking for Tier 1 money and no team really seems interested in paying 2 first round picks to provide that kind of contract. this is where not having an agent makes this difficult to navigate. when negotiating you need to not let things get personal. It would appear that Lamar has made it personal. that said, given how far out of touch he is with reality in terms of his worth, I am not sure an agent can make this situation better for him. in the end the agent needs to bring the clients expectations into the realm of whats appropriate and I dont believe that this is actually possible with Lamar.

yeah there are signs he may actually be a player, but its not a lock. otherwise everyone would be after the guy.

well, mixon gets hurt more often than typical for a starter, so Zeke may get significant playing time on a good team if it happens again. and he has a shot at a superbowl. not bad. he may be able to make more money elsewhere but I get the feeling given the locations hes choosing ..... this isnt about the money.