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Ray_T

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Ray_T last won the day on May 31 2016

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About Ray_T

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    Suggestions 13.
    Thou shalt be amused rather than angered by the words and deeds of idiots; for i am thy noodly lord and I have created idiots solely for entertainment purposes, mine first and thine likewise. -The Pastafarian Bible-Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

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  1. Ray_T

    Thoughts on David Johnson as a top 5 pick

    I have noticed that teams with rookie QB's usually go a bit more run heavy in the game plan during the rookie year. There are likely exceptions so I'm not going to pretend this is cut and dried. and the QB is a threat to run the ball himself, so teams cannot over commit when the ball gets handed to the RB because if its a fake, that QB will light them up. To that end, I think David Johnson should at the very least be more efficient in terms of yards per carry. But there is the chance this will be offset by the QB poaching some TD's that would normally go to him.
  2. Ray_T

    Thoughts on David Johnson as a top 5 pick

    The RB stats (moreso than the stats of any other position) are tied to the fate of the team. if the team is winning, that RB gets a lot of second half carries. if they are losing.... not so much unless it is a close game and the run is working. AZ was a losing team last year. They were terrible. I honestly cannot anticipate a situation where this year's team is worse than last years team. So I think his stats will improve. He is still a top talent. so to that end, I think a ranking between #5 and #10 is most likely appropriate. I do think there will be a bounce back, but maybe not into top 3 like he was before. The team still needs to improve some more before that can happen.
  3. Ray_T

    Keeper Question - This is a tough one!

    anytime you have a player who is top 3 at his position you should keep him (in my opinion) in this case you have a top 3 QB and a top 3 TE. Unless you have a lot of people in your league hoarding RB's I'd keep Mahomes and Kittle. Williams looks like he is set for a breakout year, but there are no guarantees here. he is a considerably less proven commodity than Mahomes and Kittle. I understand he had 3 or 4 good games in Miami late last year, and one good game the year before, but that's not enough of a track record that I'd consider making him a keeper over the other two choices. it is also worth noting that Hyde is a starting Caliber player, so even though Williams has the inside track to be the starter, he may have a very short leash even if he wins the job. So I'd advise you to take the sure thing in Mahomes and Williams. you will have 2 positions (TE & QB) where you will outscore your opponents most of the time going into draft day. Thats a good place to be.
  4. Ray_T

    Derrick Henry train 2019

    I think injured players are overrated a lot of the time. It truly is rare when you have an ADP situation where you have an ACL surgery done, and are back in less than a year and just as productive as before. I agree the medical technology has improved, but not to a point where this type of thing happens more often than not. I also do not think you should look at one year of production and say- See its no issue. To me, Any player with an ACL injury has an issue. we do not know if that issue will rear it's ugly head today, tomorrow, or after the RB turns 30, but I'd agree that you take your chances when you value the player the same as a fully healthy player of the same caliber. while I do not see the quote Maulers refers to, I will not blame TBay for knocking Gurley down a few spots in his rankings due to injury. The fact he had a good season or two since does not make him wrong. it just means the issue hasnt become a problem at this point in Gurleys career. The thing about projecting possible injuries..... none of us are doctors, and none of us get access to the players actual medical report, so any medical information is largely speculative. it is rare that a doctor says a surgery was not successful. but I'm sure it happens. So when a person feels that someone is ranked too high due to an injury history, I'd argue it is a speculative assessment of a situation based on his own risk preferences (vs those of the person making the statement) The reality is.... each player has a range of values based on expected production. you may adjust more (or less) for certain things than I do. if everyone valued players the same, there would never be any trades. this goes back to my first rule of fantasy football: 'There are times when you have to assume you are right and everyone else is wrong' No need for mudslinging. TBay has an opinion, Maulers, you have another. and that's fine.
  5. Ray_T

    Derrick Henry train 2019

    This situation will always exist. too often owners get mixed up in affairs that coaches and GMs should be doing as well. I would be surprised if we ever got to a point where this is gone from the league.
  6. Ray_T

    Derrick Henry train 2019

    I see him as a low end RB2 with a little bit of upside. I acknowledge there is some upside there, but I havnt seen enough from him to feel he'd be worth more. as mentioned earlier, because he is not generally a good pass catching back, he would REALLY need to get a lot of yards from Scrimage and/or a lot of TD's to be good enough to consider as a RB1 and I just dont think hes good enough. The team isnt good enough either. When you think of offensive powerhouses, Tennessee is not one team I think about. Last years stats of 1059 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving is pretty close to what I would expect this year. I dont know that I'd expect the same number of TD's. That Tenessee offense as a whole isnt very good. As such, I really cannot see him putting up much more in the way of stats than that. If the offensive line turns out to be better than expected or if Mariota has a good season, there is some upside there, but what really holds him back is that he is very much a one dimensional back. he runs well, but does not catch much in the way of passes. So his floor is considerably lower than other people who project to score the same amount of fantasy points this year.
  7. Ray_T

    Tyreek in trouble

    worth noting here, to be convicted criminally, you need to be proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt. to be suspended or sued in civil court, I think the odds are more based on a balance of probabilities.
  8. Ray_T

    Tyreek in trouble

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001033074/article/criminal-case-against-tyreek-hill-no-longer-active Tyreek hill file no longer active. looks like there is insufficient evidence to convict.
  9. Ray_T

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Miles Sanders, Eagles

    I dont consider Sproles to be a threat to the starting job. at best he will be a third down specialist in passing situations where they need a scat back. but on this team I think Smallwood can play that role, so its tough to say if Sproles will play much at all unless some people ahead of him on the depth chart get hurt.
  10. Ray_T

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Dwayne Haskins, Redskins

    This Running QB's are fantasy gold. Remember Tim Teebow? Terrible QB, but his rushing yards made him a good QB for fantasy. This has nothing to do with skill its about playing style.
  11. Ray_T

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Dwayne Haskins, Redskins

    well, there is no question managment (and ownership) is a bit of a dumpster fire. That is always a possibility. but top talent usually does well despite these factors. There are always exceptions in cases where the disfunction is exceptionally bad, but I think its a good rule to live by. Bottom line: Either you believe in Haskins or you dont.
  12. Ray_T

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Dwayne Haskins, Redskins

    I agree with Brutus. I think hes more choked at sliding in the draft. it cost him money and maybe hurt the ego just a bit. Personally I think the hurt ego is maybe the best thing for him. I truly believe that some players read all the good press and think they are better than they actually are. so this scenario actually gives him a better chance at success because he may work that much harder to become the player he was supposed to be. As for the mobility thing, its overrated. While a mobile QB forces a Defense to do things differently, those types of QB's seem to have shorter careers. (likely due to the extra hits they take playing this style) I think his chances of success are about the same as any first round QB. The scouting report says a lot of good things. At this point its mostly a matter of waiting to see how quickly he picks up the offense. As for the comment about coaches believing a QB needs to be able to run their system, Id say that's true to a certain extent. I think a coach also needs to be willing to adjust the system and insert certain plays to maximize the talents of the QB he has. In Today's NFL, If you just try to make a player fit the system, that can sometimes be a recipe for failure. you need to be willing to adjust the system to fit the talent available. If the talent does not exist to do things a certain way, you need to find another way to get the job done. This often means adjusting your scheme to give your players their best chance at success.
  13. Ray_T

    Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Parris Campbell, Colts

    its hard to say. Maybe its a case where teams could never contain him on the short routes, so why push him to do more when you dont have to?
  14. Ray_T

    Doug's Top 50 Rookie Rankings

    I'd agree. The player needs some development still, but I'd say he landed in the right place. Seattle loves to trade down and pick players with potential who they feel they can develop. I wouldnt be surprised if they have him running a decent route tree by midseason and have special plays developed just for him and his skillset ready for opening week.
  15. Ray_T

    Dynasty league value question

    The problem with Brady is definitely his age. in my experience its better to cut bait on a player like that one year early rather than one year too late. I'd shop him around. That being said, you didnt say how many players you guys keep in your league. That will play a role in the price people pay for Brady. If only keeping one or two, you may have a hard time moving him, even to a Brady lover/pats fan. If keeping 3 its hit or miss. if keeping 4 or more, you should find a market for him its just a question of what people are willing to pay. That being said, it also depends on what your keepers actually are. In some cases you are better off hanging onto Brady until the season starts. if he puts up a big game or two early, people will forget about his age and trade for his value Today. The first 2 games are Pittsburgh and Miami. While Pittsburgh is traditionally a tougher opponent, they are missing Antonio Brown so will have a big hole to fill. They might be a decent matchup. Miami(week2) has been a train wreck of late. If you keep him, I'd plan to shop him after the Miami game. only downside of this strategy is you will NEED to pickup another QB in the draft. Possibly earlier than you wanted to initially. and its not a guarantee the strategy will work.
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