Ray_T

This may actually be a fair bet. he played with a lis franc injury last year and it showed. no burst whatsoever in the second half. these injuries tend to be career enders if surgery is done (more often than not) but if rehab without surgery, it is possible to bounce back, but the injury is the type where the recovery can be very slow. a smart team would be very scared of that injury but I'm sure some teams will do their homework and do a very thorough medical exam of that injury to make sure. I dont recall hearing about a surgery, so there is the chance he can come back and be productive. but there is also the chance the injury lingers and if that happens, hes a backup at best. I have not heard much. but maybe TBay may be able to chime in. the guy was a Buc so chances are good that TBay knows what the deal is with the injury.

you know, I'm looking and I see a handful of guys on the cusp of RB2/3 rankings (assuming 12 teamer) based on fftoday rankings that I dont mind at their ADP. any of these players I'd be happy to have as a RB3 if they fall that far (and chances are good that at least one of them will) James Connor ranked #20 in fftodays RB rankings actually was having a subpar season but came alive after Kyler Murray got hurt and those last few weeks of the season were very good. Hes not a glamourous name and I wouldnt even be surprised if his ADP is lower than fftodays ranking. and if that is the case, hes a guy you target as your RB3 Dameon Pierce (fftoday rank #21) got 900 yards rushing as a rookie and the offense is more potent with the addition of Stroud. I see a small bump in yards, but the larger bump should be in TD. Pacheco (fftoday rank #24) got 830 yards rushing as a rookie and 130 yards receiving. pretty good rookie season. and the RB room looks to be less crowded than it was this time last year. he doesnt even have to improve to hit 1000 yards as the shorter bench likely means more touches even if he plays to the same level. if he takes a step forward, he could have a real nice season. I love this kid and if the ADP resembles the fftoday ranking hes a reasonable RB2 selection when the talent thins out and if you can get him as your RB3 you're in great shape. Dobbins (fftoday rank #25)- this is an Axe Elf Special. he took him in nearly every draft I saw him post last year, but due to the ACL injury and recovery, he may have jumped the gun, but I do like him a lot this year if his health holds up. if the ADP on this guy matches the fftoday rank, hes likely a buy at this point in the draft. Miles Sanders (fftoday rank #27)-I also like this guy a lot. it looks like hes gonna be the bell cow in carolina. yes, I know they are not a great team, but neither was philly until last season. they were absolutely terrible. while Chubba Hubbard has a cool name, hes not a RB who has passed the eye test for me. I dont think hes anything other than a backup and will go in when Sanders needs a rest. fftodays current projection is pretty similar (slightly higher)to the numbers Sanders got in Philly the 2 years prior to his breakout last year. but Sanders only played in 12 games to get those stats on a very bad Philly squad. so I think there is some upside here as well. any of these guys I'd be extremely happy to get as my RB3 and a couple I'd be willing to settle as an RB2 (especially in a best ball format where you took a lot of WR early or did a zero RB strategy) I think all of them have a decent chance of outperforming this ranking. I dont know their respective ADP's. I find ADP data this early in the year is sketchy at best. so I'd rely more on the fftoday rankings (or whatever other rankings you like to use)

yes, and that complicates things for sure. what I dont know is how that affects the recovery. to my knowledge (going from memory)ACL is the one that takes longer to heal, so I suspect if there is an issue in recovery, thats likely where the holdup will be. it wouldnt surprise me if a doc told me it affects the physio and that it will tack some time onto the recovery but there is not enough data for me to really nail that down and say 'this is how it is' but from a logical standpoint, this could affect the recovery time. I just dont know to what extent.

well I have done a lot of research into ACL injuries. from what I can tell, the first thing to return in the process of rehab is the straight line speed. the ability to move laterally and make cuts takes a fair bit more time. sometimes a team can cover up a certain amount of this by not calling as many plays that require certain cuts on the surgically repaired knee. but generally that part of the game can take a fair bit more time to return. (usually 4-8 months longer than it takes for the straight line speed to return) unfortunately the ability to make a sharp cut at high speed is what separates the elite backs from the average ones so you will likely see a guy who is not quite as electric. because of when he did injure himself, he could be poised to have a decent second half of the season but I wouldnt be prepared for a full return to form for at least one more year. And if hes limited early in camp or on the PUP list then I'd likely avoid him altogether. Let someone else take that risk.

It is hard to say what the issue is there, but bringing in a better offensive coach wont hurt him. I'm also a believer in Payton but like you, I dont know how much Wilson has left in the tank. I wouldnt be surprised to see a bump in his stats due to better coaching, but I dont know that I'd put him back up there as a high end QB1 anymore. those days may be done. I still have not decided where I'd rank him. Likely I have him as a top quality back up (QB2) in most formats. if he looks great in camp, maybe he becomes a low end starter in 12 team leagues. but I wouldnt be drafting him early. I'll say that much for sure.

ACL recovery is 9-12 months until you can play. but most players do not return to their full playing ability until closer to 18 months. There are exceptions to this rule. ADP did it in less than a year, but hes really the only one I can think of that came back in less than 18 months and was just as good as he was before. and he did it in less than a year to boot. Ever since people have been over estimating the value of players coming back from this injury. But I've come to the conclusion that ADP is a physical freak (in a good way) who heals phenominally. Not everyone heals like he does and I dont think you can bet on it. Williams will play. I have no doubt of that, but hes a low end RB2 or high end RB3. Next year I'd bet on a very good year (assuming good health of course) if you wanna take a chance on him this year, take him one round earler than his ADP comes in at. Ie. draft as your RB3 and if he gives you RB2 or RB1 numbers you consider it to be a big bonus. Thats how I'd approach that one.

I was commenting on the way Belechek rotates his backs. no one back gets all the reps so none of them will be RB1. from that perspective I am 100% right. I just probably didnt explain it clearly enough. now we are not looking at starters here, we are looking at backups. I've already stated earlier, if both starters are healthy Strong is likely the better play as he gets regular reps as part of that committee. while Moss got almost no reps until an injury happened and he was thrust ito the starting role. I see no reason that this situation changes next year. so Moss may be the better player, but I dont think he gets nearly the reps if the starter there remains healthy. but if the starter goes down Moss gets all the reps and he becomes substantially more valuable. so Moss is valuable if you also have the starter in Indy (JT) otherwise, not so much....

this is the right answer. with the Pats, todays starter is tomorrows bench warmer. they tend to do most of their running by committee and each RB has a role and certain situations they specialize in. They occasionally have fantasy worthy RB's but its inconsistent at best. I've avoided Pats RB's for fantasy over the last decade (or a bit longer) for this very reason even when I have liked the player and have been happy with that decision. its generally a fantasy wasteland for RB owners in fantasy. good players.... good team.... but not so good for fantasy.

I fully expect it. keep in mind of course that only 50% of the job is complete. obtaining quality free agents and setting a good lineup based on matchups can make up a whole lot of ground and you have not even shown what you can do on that front (yet).

yep it definitely looks like a studs and scrubs auction strategy. but I dont mind Aiyuk at $13 or Toney at $7. Doubs is as good as you will get for $1. I also like the Kareem Hunt for $1. Seems like a hefty price for Bijan, but I know you like him more than I do. and I dont mind Gesicki for $2. Mahomes is Mahomes. I dont think I need to comment on him. You are most likely a playoff team. whether you are a high end playoff team or low end would largely depend on how those $1 players pan out for you. If they pan out, you'll do well. and I think I like most of your $1 players so I'm guessing probably a 3rd or 4th place finish during the regular season?

ok can you explain how they measure average rush yards over expected. I have not gone into the metrics all that much in the past but knowing how they measure it would be helpful to my understanding how much weight to place on this particular metric

are we still talking about this guy? the news is old now. unless something new happens in the story, lets let it die.