Ray_T

once you guarantee the money, you are kind of on the hook until the guaranteed portion is paid out. we are getting close to that point at the end of this year. After that it is dicey on whether he stays a giant.

I would also say that sometimes the eye test is the most telling for example, on 4th and 1 or 2 yards...... if your line is consistently pushing back the opposing teams line, its far easier to gamble on something like that than to count on the stats. and if your team isnt consistently pushing the other teams line back on run plays, it does not matter if you have completed 65% of your 4th and 1 plays this year. if your line isnt getting that push, your expected result will be that you will be successful at a lower rate than 65% because your Line isnt getting that push against the defense today. Either way, while analytics can help you..... you also need to know how to use them. They can be good for telling you there is a problem somewhere, but it still requires you to take a look, use common sense and find out where you are losing the battles. there were other analytics for Derek Henry. he was still breaking tackles and his yards after first contact were still good. its just his last year in Tennessee the line quite often failed him and first contact was behind the line of scrimage. When that happens, the analyitics for the RB will almost never be great.

this is a completely different argument but an interesting commment. Analyitics are too often misused. just looking at them and making a sweeping judgement on a player or team is not fair most of the time. you dont just look at the analytics. you need to find out what the data you are looking at means or what caused the stats to skew that way. Sure your QB or RB are not doing well, but why? lots were down on Sequon Barkley and Henry going into this season because the analytics suggested they were in decline. but if you look at the why, both RB's were running behind bad lines. Now they are running behind decent lines and suddenly those analytics dont mean so much. because the conditions of the test have now changed. in the end those analytics measured efficiency but now in light of the new data with the new team it is clear that the issue was likely a line problem and not a RB problem. so you do need to be very careful how you use that data when using it to help you make a decision. dont get me wrong, Analytics can be very helpful. and in the case above, yeah, they walked from some guaranteed points because the analytics failed them and it bit them later when they needed the points. This just goes to show, that sometimes coaches fall into this trap too. Food for your thoughts. Nice post.

I'm also worried about that second opinion. makes me think something more serious could be happening. I'd keep an eye on that

the playbook isnt all they need to learn. while the plays may be the same and the routes the same, but its the adjustments based on read that are different by team. maybe with a certain look the bills will run a WR up the seam while the Cards might have him hook back to the QB. That requires being on the same page as your QB and that part does not come easy.

he is in a new offense has not had time to work with his starting QB. I didnt expect hed blow the doors off in week 1 in Buffalo. I'd say he likely needs at least another week (maybe 2) to get up to speed. it is physically impossible to learn the playbook in only a week or two.

well, hes sure looking good today. he also looked good the last time they played the TBay Defense. he just didnt get the numbers he got this week

fair enough. I'm not against drafting a QB early but if you are doing it, you better make sure you nail the pick. Thats all I'm saying.

the two are not related. I said I like his call and then I mentioned about the O line for denver and their improvement from what they were earlier and buying into that offense might not be bad. mainly because when the line performs better, the whole offense should perform better as well.

I like this call. I also have noticed the Denver team has had some O line issues early in the year. it looks like the O line is starting to play better, and the injured guys are back so it may not be a bad idea to buy into that offense if you can do so at a good price. I do think they will be better going forward. How much better? I cannot say but I feel like the stock will go up some.

for now, I'd say Mahomes is a better actual quarterback than he is a Fantasy QB. As a Fantasy QB hes been a bit Meh the last year or so.

well, the KC defense is REALLY good. when the D is that good, you really dont need to light it up. all you need is to score a reasonable number of points and protect your lead with a good ground game and a ball control offense. and thats exactly what this offense has morphed into. I'm sure if the Defense was giving up 30 points a night Mahomes stats would be substantially better. but they are not doing that. so the need isnt there to open things up and go for broke.

https://www.nfl.com/news/dolphins-qb-tua-tagovailoa-clears-concussion-protocol-expected-to-play-cardinals

given the health of their WR I could see them running a lot of 2 WR RB sets where one will split out wide partway through the snap count. both are capable receivers. I could see it causing mismatches in coverage if they use them both. corrected the typo. my bad

yeah thats how I'm treating him too. there is probably considerable upside with Mahomes tossing him the ball. How much upside is difficult to figure, but what I really like is his leaping ability to high point the ball. if Mahomes can throw to the right spot where he can do this, it doesnt matter if hes open or not. he will just out jump the defender to get the ball. You cant really defend against that if Mahomes is that Precise. and I do think Mahomes has that ability. but it may take a game or two for him to find his range and timing with DHop. I think he ends up being a fantastic red zone guy for the team. which could bump him into WR2 territory. possibly even low end WR1 if everything goes right (though I dont know that that will actually happen) but hes a guy who you likely wanna start once hes got enough time to get on the same page as the rest of the offense.

mooney has been at the WR1/2 cusp for a while here. last week was an off week and week 1 was a gong show for the whole offense as the team was learning to play together. I'd toss out week 1 from my analysis as that's not a true indicator of where the team is at. and that brings him almost to the WR1/WR2 border. Allen should be rostered too but I'm not sure Mooney is the guy you wanna be dropping to pick him up. Hes been pretty good this year.