Ray_T

yep. but the line in Houston was really bad last year. I have to believe they cant be much worse than they were last year, but I dont see a large amount of improvement. This will Hurt Millers value as much as any other factor. and this is largely why I am calling him as not being a top 10 guy.

Their line will be better. in this year's draft they got what is considered to be the two best guards in the draft. Last year they got what was considered the best pulling center in the draft (tuerk) make no mistake, the line has a bright future. but it often takes a half year to a full year (and sometimes up to 2 years) for a top draft pick to realize their potential. so there will be growing pains, but I do think this line will be top notch within 2 years. but this year will have its ups and downs

they were not ranked to 8 last year. they needed another 2-300 yards of offense to be top 8. going on the assumption they will need the same level of offense to be top 8, Rivers will have to throw for another 250-300 yards (meaning 4500 yards passing) or they will need Gordon to get another 250-300 yards (or some splt) I'm not seeing that big a bump to Gordon's numbers. the line just does not look good enough yet. that being said, they are young players, and I think things on the line will come around, But it will take a few games. I'm all onboard for Gordon next year. I just dont think he's gonna have a big year this year. I'm looking at a bit more than what he did last year. Maybe a shade over 1000 yards rushing. I think receiving numbers will be comparable, but TD's in the red zone will be down from last year because Rivers had a few more targets in the pass game so it wont be just pounding the ball with Gordon inside the 10.

the reason people are high on Parker is because Cutler has a tendency of picking the best deep WR and force feeding him the football. Lots of people think that guy is gonna be Parker. it's a bit speculative but people are looking at the upside 100%. dont get me wrong, I like Parker. He was on one of my teams last year, and if given the chance I'd draft him again at the right price. He is capable of being a 1000 yard season with Cutler at the helm. his biggest risk is injury. I dont know that he's prone to injuries per se, but the type of injuries he had (back injuries)are not typically good for any professional football player. the good news is he has had a lot of time to get over it.

I think he's only 30 years old. I was pretty sure he had one good year left if he got fully healthy. But I am pretty sure this is his last chance at being a productive starter (that is... assuming he is given the chance to start).

I took a lot of heat by saying Miller wont be a top 10 RB last year. I think he will be better this year, but not by as much as people think. I still dont think he will be a top 10 back. He is 100% RB2. Draft him higher at your own peril.

well, that is likely what I'm gonna do if given the choice. but, I do draft late enough that my choice may well be made for me. only time will tell....

I hope my league leans towards this opinion. I'd love him as my WR3

have you watched the chargers in exhibition? I watched part of 2 games and from what I saw their line has been horrible. maybe I got a bad snapshot because I didnt watch the full games, but what I did see didnt look good. there are some posts elsewhere on this (and other boards) that basically said the same. I have to downgrade him a bit for this year unless I see something to change my mind.

and he looked talented enough to do it. His problem was that he could not hang onto the football

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000834618/article/chiefs-rb-spencer-ware-out-with-knee-injury

I read somewhere they thought it was a knee sprain. It would not surprise me if Mikes info (above) is more up to date than mine.

well, his future appears bright. that's for sure. but he will probably always be underrated. He plays in a small market and doesnt get the love from the press. That's fine by me. Especially if it means I can draft him later than I'd otherwise get him.

I would grab a ranking list (such as fftoday) and go RB, WR, RB, WR in the first 4 rounds based on best available at each position on that list. The reason I would do it this way is because if he does not like it I'd show him the list. By doing it this way, you cant manipulate the draft to benefit yourself. you're just getting the top guy on the list. then I'd draft for your team based on your own list

if you are that lazy that you dont do even the most basic of research on the players you want to draft, you deserve to end up with an injured player on your roster.

well, a risk of not performing is one thing. Everyone has that. a risk of other things such as off field issues is another. so is fumbling. these are both things that add to a players risk when you are considering drafting them. There are other factors such as quality of O line, and the quality of the team around the RB that also play a factor. these are all risks worth considering. I pointed out that Dalvin Cook had an issue with putting the ball on the ground in college. you can choose to ignore it if you want. I'm just giving you the info. so dont shoot the messenger. Ignore it if you want. like I said, some players resolve the issue without coaching, some require coaching to get over it, and some never get over it. Personally If I was going to draft him, I'd be wanting to watch some tape to see how bad it is. but he and Mixon had the worst fumbling of all the top RB's drafted. I'm not gonna speak to this further. do what you want with the info. You're welcome.

well, I rarely draft a rookie to be my RB1. Usually when I draft one, I draft for an RB2 or RB3 and that usually happens when I am unhappy with the RB2 talent available. I have no doubt that at least one of this years rookies will have a huge season. but some of them wont really do well until year 2. at the end of the day, I dont go chasing after rookies with high draft picks, I generally let the draft come to me, and if a rookie falls into my lap I take him.

He's a huge Red zone target. We'd be foolish to think they wont do this at least some of the time.

In redraft, yes, in a keeper/dynasty I'd take Gordon.

I dont disagree. like I said, I expect both backs to put up similar numbers over the year. I have a preference for high volume players who dont share the workload with anyone else. That's my bias. and I'll live or die on that one. the reality is you really cant go too far wrong by drafting either back. They are both good buys.

The Truth ERTZ

you might be right. Like I said earlier, the Dukes concussion problems have led to his carries being severely limited. (especially on between the tackles carries) and he did have a rather serious concussion and for a while it was questionable whether he would play pro football going forward. You cannot ignore that. He has recovered, but concussions tend to be cumulative, so if he has another one, it could be a career ender. for that reason, if I'm the coach, I likely do as you suggest... move the #3 guy into Crowell's spot and keep the Duke in the same role he's had.

Freeman and Ajayi are two different backs with different styles and risk factors. Ajayi has health issues. I'm not worried about the concussion. it's the only one of his career. If it was a bad one, he would have been out of action for longer than a month. he was out a couple weeks and that second week may have been unnecessary. He will be fine. I am more concerned with a bone on bone condition in one of his knees (I forget which knee it is) This will likely shorten his career by a year or two, but shouldnt affect his production in the near future. Freeman's issue is that he has a very similar back in Tevin Coleman playing on the same team that takes significant carries away from him. while I predict and expect that both will put up fairly similar numbers over the course of the season, I personally would prefer the workhorse who does not share carries with another back. So I'd rank Ajayi a little higher even though Freeman has a bit more talent and ability. so for me, the situation is better for Ajayi than it is for Freeman. If Coleman were to get hurt and miss significant time this year, then I'd rank Freeman ahead of Ajayi. but that is not currently the case, so I rank Ajayi higher. More out of personal preference due to situation than out of any expectation of better production.

they will all benefit. a good O line is good for everyone. It will help Blount and Smallwood more than it would help sproles, but it will help them all.

I dont think anyone here need to be told this. Titans ran teams over with the run all year long.