Ray_T

what is it with these college speedsters who keep getting hurt when they make the pros. its like if you get faster than 4.3 on the 40 you suddenly are getting injured all the time. pulled hammy, strained calf. whatever.

It is still early, but Javonte had himself a nice rookie season, but when you tear multiple ligaments in the knee its a tougher recovery than just a plain old ACL tear. To be frank I didnt like him at all last year as I felt not enough time had passed for the knee to be where it needed to be. but he needs to step up this year. I think he can, but its one of those wait and see things. At the end of the day if he cant beat out Perine, his career is likely done.

I think AJ brown is pretty safe too. Hes produced everywhere he goes. biggest risk is injury to his QB or to himself. Ditto for Tyreek. higher upside but higher risk of injury to his QB who has had concussion issues. I value them pretty close to the same but give the edge to Tyreek who has the higher upside (assuming good health)

there is also the risk that he gets hurt. health has been a concern for Stafford. but given Kupps Ceiling I can see McVay finding creative ways to keep them both productive. I also noticed Puka was not nearly as productive when Kupp was on the field (on average) so this made me think its not a given that Puka is better than Kupp for fantasy (though I fully admit its possible) and also Kupps last couple years were not where they should be but he was also injured. I think he gets a chance to prove he can still play just because of how high he proved his ceiling can be.

remember the big media outlets write their articles to get clicks. they accuracy and research are secondary) they also need to have new content often so they can keep making money from the clicks. food for your thoughts

Wanted to Take Deebo and Pickens here. nice floor for Deebo due to rush yards and if Aiyuk leaves/holds out his ceiling will be higher. Either way, I needed a WR so I took the next WR on my list which was Pickens. an 1100 yard WR with a QB who is not starting in the NFL anymore. I have to think the change to Wilson should help his numbers (at least on the TD side if not overall) Waddle (round 4) I considered a reasonably safe pick. only downside risks is injury to himself or Tua, but I was willing to accept this risk at this point in the draft.

4.01 Jaylen Waddle, MIA

3.12 George Pickens, PIT

I am in Alberta, Canada. its 3pm here wont be an issue for me

he is. no question. but I think part of his issue was that he wasnt healthy all year long. its still a decent pick if you think he stays healthy

in a best ball format, its all about the upside. Especially at this position. if he gets 200 yards one week and zero the next, you are not actually getting zero. You're getting what the 3rd best RB on your roster is getting. so his ups and downs will be forgiveable so long as his good games are big like they were last year. further to this, his ADP last I checked was #24 overall. so by both standards this is a decent pick at this point in the draft. especially if you have a need at RB

initially my plan was to take a WR and a RB at the turn, but the run on WR at the start made me pivot. but if I'd have followed the original plan he was one of the guys I was hoping would fall to me at the end of round 3.

guess vikings beat me to the punch

for last year? we did. the link to it is in the 2023 july mock round 12-16 commentary but the link is reposted here Fantasy Football: 2023 FFToday: July Mock (myfantasyleague.com)

The big difference I find is that the players I Identify as breakout guys who will be a value at their ADP are also identified by most of the guys here. so you quite often get sniped on a player that would often fall to you in a regular draft. thats a testiment to the knowledge of the drafters. its a higher level of competition than we often see anywhere else.

I'm in the same boat as Robb. I really wanted a WR but I never anticipated that all my picks at WR would be gone. only guy I liked has a chance to go to another team (which is risky). so you guys forced me to flip the script. went with 2 RB. Sequon who is in a better offense and a better line than he had last year and Henry who also has a better line and better offense. With Henry I expect the value will be in TD. With Sequon I see them moving him around and using him in a multitude of ways. I think it will be interesting to watch. wasnt wanting to go RB-RB but sometimes you gotta take what the draft gives you.

2.01 RB-Sequon Barkley,PHI

1.12 RB Derek Henry, BAL

I am going into a long meeting at some point today but sadly wont know exactly when. I've sent my list in to Mike on the off chance I cant be here. Mike can you confirm you got my email?

its all good. so far no big surprises. the first few picks went largely as I would have expected (give or take)

there are enough of you saying this that I am forced to admit its not as crazy as I thought. I was pretty sure at the very least that the 4 big WR would likely go ahead of him but I guess not so much for the record he just went 1.04 in the July PPR Mock

well, in prepping for the July Mock I have some interesting ADP news. last year more RB's were drafted in round 1 than we are seeing this year (so far) only 3 in the first 10 and 5 in the first 12. This is the first year the first round was significantly tilted toward the WR that I have ever seen. I'm also seeing a lot of discrepencies between ADP and rank. not just for fftoday but for other sites too. I suspect thats because of all the player movement we have seen this last year. anyhow, it would be interesting to see if anyone else has a good take on this. comment at will.

well, its good for you. I'd take that offer too if someone made one like that to me in that situation

Thats actually very good

if you have the #1 pick and you are not allowed to trade it, CMC needs to be who you take. if you are allowed to trade the pick, I'd at least shop it around to see what you can get. Im not 100% keen on the durability so if someone gave me a great offer for that #1 pick I'd let them take that risk. but thats all speculative. because the next question becomes.... how much is enough to make you part with the pick.