Ray_T

I dont disagree

now you have my projection. not that it matters. even if my projections are higher, the bottom line is that hes not really draftable in any format unless you are looking at 20 team leagues or something of the like

if those are the likely destinations, then yes. sure he might make more money in the short run, but the inferior offense will hurt his numbers and hurt him financially when its time to re-sign

no, historically he has gotten between 400 and 600 yards. and in the new home they will try hard to utilize him as an asset. I figure 450 -500 total yards wth about half of that coming on longer TD throws. so lets estimate 3-5 TD these numbers are roughly in line with career averages

probably. unless they get a comparable WR in return.

yeah but there are positives too. I think he was among the leaders in Yards after first contact though I have not verified that. I'm going strictly from memory so if I'm wrong, someone correct me.

bingo. I predict low catches but high TD (at least relative to the # of catches) but no, not fantasy relevant. and likely not close either.

yeah, hes only 26 still. guy has been fairly durable throughout his career. I dont anticipate that he will be the #1 back in football ever again, but I think his numbers will improve moderately in Green Bay just because its a better team so he will get more red zone opportunities. line is better too, so YPC may go up a bit but his usage should remain about the same

someone almost always does.

if dropping Jacobs allows you to spend $2 per player instead of one, I question whether Jacobs should then be dropped. in the end, its not helping a ton on the back end. I dont know that a 2 dollar player is a substantial enough improvement on a $1 player to make this move worth your while. That said, it could be a know your league thing, and nobody here knows your league like you do. my 2 cents. as for CMC, if you can trade him (or any player) for dollars, thats potentially a game changer and wed need to look at everything again. but assuming that's not the case, he may be a player who is easier to move after the protection deadline. then you could trade him for a number of assets without auction dollar consideration. before the draft thats a much harder move to make and in most cases the return wont be as good.

no, he likely does have football left in him, but at an ADP in the 10th round I'd suggest you dont pick him in round 4. if you like him it is better to wait until at least round 8 before pulling the trigger. no point paying the price of a 4th when you can have him in the 8th or later.

ok to answer your question first I'm gonna put up the likely candidates (based on ADP) 1) Etienne (ADP 45)- if he falls to you. I suspect he goes early. 2) Pacheco (ADP 44)-not sexy but a solid player. just not 100% suited to PPR play. it did look like they are running a few more routes with him later in the year. so his receiving numbers may bump up a bit this year and that could be enough to make him a reasonable value pick at this point in the draft. 3) Jacobs (adp 54)-better team, better situation. but hes got a lower floor and higher ceiling than he had last year. 4) Mixon (ADP 61)-Hou- Mixon was running behind what might have been one of the weaker lines. part of this was due to injuries on the line. either way, hes running in a better situation. I expect a bounceback year. 5 James Cook ADP 60-might be a sneaky good pick. guy looks talented enough, but is stuck in an offense that likes to throw- a lot. but given that all the WR's have departed they may lean on the run early in the season until the new WR's develop a chemistry with Josh Allen. 6. Rachaad White (adp 63)-probably the least sexy pick here. but he catches a lot of footballs. you could do worse 7. Kenneth Walker (ADP 72)-I actually love this guy, but noting the coaching change its not a lock that he gets the volume hes had in the past 8 Kamara (ADP 75)-guy is a douche, but presents decent value in PPR leagues at this ADP. Not sure you wanna take him in round 4 but its an option 9 Naj Harris ADP 86-this rises if they announce hes for sure going to be the starter on day 1 of the regular season) and I like that he is playing for a contract. This is most likely the top candidates if you are looking in round 4 for a RB in PPR. there are others these are the ones you are most likely to have left.

hey lets try to keep it civil guys. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and just because their opinion does not jive with yours doesnt mean they are invalid opinions. I'm the first guy to admit I dont agree with everything he says. and he doesnt agree with everything I say, but we do sometimes agree. but that's part of fantasy football. if everyone agreed with your opinion, your best picks would be poached by other players before you got to draft them most of the time. Thats what makes fantasy football great. sometimes he will see something in a player that you dont or vice versa. and thats cool. thats how we learn from each other. and maybe you dont like a guy on the board (it happens) but that doesnt mean every opinion they put up on here is wrong. all I ask is we try to keep things civil so we can have a decent discussion about the topic without making people overly upset.

for sure. lots of teams will go QB-QB in that format. or at worst will draft 2 QB in the first 3 rounds

yeah and the beat writer gets to see the open part of the practice, but not the closed part. that also hinders the reliability. when the team officially releases a depth chart you will know for sure.

yeah i figured. but that means you have a legit chance of having Carr as your QB3. in a 2 QB or superflex league, that's huge. That kind of depth at QB in that format is a huge advantage because there will always be demand for startable QB's and I consider Carr to be startable in that format

if Carr is your QB 25 and you are getting him as your QB3, you jump on that. guy in our league(first place) lost his top QB for the season the week before the trade deadline and paid a kings ransom to get Derek Carr. while he wasnt lighting it on fire, he was good enough to get him to the final. Bryce Young could be a nice pickup too. wouldnt be surprised to see him take a big step forward. ditto for Levis who has a low floor and high ceiling.

count me in. I have a couple days where my job may prevent me from picking, but I'll send a list in when needed.

probably. hes probably still discounted because his sample size of good play is yet small. so the certainty isnt there like some of the top QB's. but I personally think he represents very good value at that point in the draft

well, the good thing about an auction is you do not have to get anyone you dont like. I try not to spend big on the first couple players to come out and in a case of CMC given his age and injury history I'd actually avoid him. I'd look at guys a tier down who have upside and go that direction. at an auction I dont ever pick a player who doesnt have significant upside for what I am paying. to that end, I have found that once you get through the first 15 -20 WR, the rest are mostly interchangable. so no point paying a premium for those (unless you feel the possible upside is really high) But for the most part the dropoff from WR20 to WR30 is not huge the last couple years. so the only thing to make sure you get is a WR1 and I'd go a teir below the big money WR that go for top dollar. by saving 10 or 15 bucks at this spot, you can save that cash and spend elsewhere. one thing I will say, is there always seems to be a shortage of RB's once the season starts as a handful always get hurt early. so if you can get extra depth at that position, likely you can unload one at good value once the injuries start to come in . if the injury happens to you, at least your season wont go down the toilet because you drafted well.

I dont see him sliding that far unless he gets hurt or coach talks about dialing down his playing time or something. I suppose of Corum has a great camp it could bite into his adp too. but I dont see him falling below mid 2nd round.

thats a bit more reasonable. I've seen him going top half of the first in some mocks. granted, the reliability of some mocks out there are questionable but still.....

thats probably a better indicator. sometimes people dont win because of dumb luck. but if a person is consistently in the top 4 or so and never winning I'd suggest that person is just extremely unlucky.

Thats fair. and I guess the question is where to draw the line. my guess is top 20. and most of the lower ones on that list can support a #1 but cannot also support a decent #2(fantasy wise) there are qb in the top 20 that dont feed their #1 enough but those guys typically lose their starting gig within a year if they cannot form a connection with their #1 WR

I get that. you dont care where they are rated, but the QB needs to be good enough to feed a #1. My point is that some QB are not that good. and it also depends on which player you evaluate. in the Raiders offense Adams got 175 targets and 1144 yards which seems good, but when you are used to getting 1500 yards its a bit of a haircut. so clearly the QB change made the difference there. most of that is likely efficiency due to having less throws on target. so yeah it does make a difference. Adams is still a #1 WR. but not an elite #1 like he was before. but then again I dont know that. O'Connell is the type of QB that fully meets the threshold of a starting calibre QB. dont get me wrong, I think its amazing that any WR performed that well with him at QB. But in the end, hes not the QB they need him to be. Granted, things may change next year, the kid is young. but he had some ups and downs as young players will have.