Ray_T

the reason you wouldnt likely do that is because I dont think he drops that far in the majority of drafts. I'm sure it happens, but the odds of him being on the board at 11or 12 is likely less than 50% and if you are drafting at 7 or 8, the real issue is if you dont take him, you wont get him. Thats where it becomes more difficult. in some leagues Im sure the trade back option is there. but in a lot of leagues there is no trading of draft picks so I'm not sure your option works for most. in the draft I'm gonna be in next week I do have the ability to trade back. I just dont know that I will. I drew the #5 draft slot. I dont see myself trading back.

hey, if you think you can draft an above average team across the board and think this guy in the middle or late part of round 1 could put you over the top, yeah you take the chance. Even if you think its only a 30-40% chance he performs. The upside is there. but there are also other players who could get you there. whether you could get them at the point you are picking CMC may be another matter. hes a boom bust pick. no doubt about that. I guess whether you take him really depends on your tolerence for risky picks. Not saying taking him is bad. I'm saying I'd take him at the turn of round 1-2. If you're saying you'd pick him at 7 the difference there isnt huge. likely comes down to personal preference. If I knew h'd be fully healthy and play up to his abilities Id take him at #1 or #2 overall. The reason I wont is because of injury history. Thats my preference. Like I said, you know where my numbers come from on this I explained it earlier. if you think the risks are different than what I've assessed or you are willing to take the risk maybe you do take him at 6 or 7. That doesnt necessarily mean either of us are wrong. we just have different risk tolerances. its not like our projected rankings are 3 round apart lol its likely less than 6 draft slots. hes still a premium RB (assuming hes heatlhy)

Well, Lawrence has underperformed, but I'd also say the team (so far) has not put him in a position where he should be able to succeed. if Hunter is the player hes supposed to be and gets decent play at WR he will have two good weapons at WR a solid 3rd WR (dyami Brown) and a young TE with a little upside still. they still have not solved the O line problems there. They traded their starting LT at mid season last year. this may have contributed... but PFF had them ranked at a D+ for the year of 2024. though just shy of being a C- rating. so maybe not dire, but certainly below average. They drafted Milum in round 3, but 3rd round guys rarely make an impact in year 1. he might. they could get lucky but I'm not planning on that scenario playing out. They did sign some free agents. to what degree that helps them I cannot say. but this is the largest Impediment for the Jags Ofense going forward. (unless the problem is with Lawrence)

considerably less risk with Kyren Williams. Most of the risk associated with him is if Stafford gets hurt. He does have a gimpy back so he could miss time. and if hes gone the whole offense there will sputter. Walker has other risks such as a bad O line (predicted to be 2nd to worst by PFF for 2025) and was a bottom 5 O line last year. I like Walker but he can only do so much behind that terrible o line. until that gets resolved, his production will not come close to matching his talent.

his back has been a problem off and on for some years now. I keep thinking hes gonna retire but then he comes back. but His bad back is something I am using to downgrade all players in the Rams offense to some degree. without stafford the whole offense puts up less in terms of stats. The risk there is significant

if you look at last years July Mock, I did something similar. at the turn I took Henry and Sequon. both RB's I felt were underrated at the time. I never looked back I was so happy. unfortunately I had no top tier WR. an area I didnt draft exceptionally well. (partly due to taking RB in round 1 and 2) so I did not win the draft but I did place 2nd or 3rd (I forget.... I only remember I didnt win) but overall I had a pretty strong team.

well, a top 5 pick on him is drafting for his upside without really taking the risks into account. People do it all the time. That doesnt mean they should..... but they do. Problem with this guy if you look, the years where he spent significant time injured were basically a writeoff. Hes not one of those guys who can play while dinged up. Usually when he gets hurt, hes out for a while. Not like some RB's who get hurt, miss 2 or 3 games and then return. over the last few years hes been injured pretty close to 50% of the time. sure hes played closer to 65% of the games but those years where he played 4 and 7 games he was highly ineffective when trying to play hurt. Might as well not have played at all. In fact it would have been better for his fantasy owners if he hadnt played because they put him in the lineup only to see him lay an egg. so might as well call those injury games and say he was healthy half the time. (or slightly more than half the time) either way, 4 seasons is a decent size sample so saying hes a 50-50 player is likely reasonably fair. so there is roughly a 50% chance of health. 50% no health. so using that as a guideline, the midpoint is around 75%. to be generous, lets say 80%. so if you cut his expected production while healthy by 20-25% that is likely a reasonably fair place to value the guy. so if you expect 19-20 fantasy points per game, this reduction for risk takes him into the 15-16 points per game and places him roughly #6 among players who had a reasonable number of games played. That puts him around Derek Henry's ADP. roughly at the turn between round 1 and 2. Personally I'd rather have Henry who has at least been durable. Henry's only problem is hes on the wrong side of the age 30. so he is not without risk. but he is more likely to stay on the field, so I'd pick that risk ahead of CMC's risk. either way, thats how I got to my projection. you dont have to like it. but at least you know Im not pulling these numbers out of thin air. for the record, if you wanna go back 5 years instead of 4 the numbers dont actually get better for him. but he was productive in the 3 games he played that year prior to getting hurt. Either way, this is just food for your thoughts.

that goes without saying. going from an offense that was a gong show to one that actually functions seemed like a no brainer. but it is surprising how many people just looked at his numbers and said 'hes bad' not taking situation into account. I was pretty happy to get him in the leagues where I got him.

it is probably Irving. but I see the attraction in keeping Jayden Daniels. I'm really high on him as a QB

thats ok. if he slides in the draft I may get him in one of my drafts. I think his current ADP is at #4 or 5 overall last I checked. I think one site I saw had him at 3. so here is hoping he slides a couple extra spots and I can get him. it likely wont happen but I can dream......