Ray_T

guess vikings beat me to the punch

for last year? we did. the link to it is in the 2023 july mock round 12-16 commentary but the link is reposted here Fantasy Football: 2023 FFToday: July Mock (myfantasyleague.com)

The big difference I find is that the players I Identify as breakout guys who will be a value at their ADP are also identified by most of the guys here. so you quite often get sniped on a player that would often fall to you in a regular draft. thats a testiment to the knowledge of the drafters. its a higher level of competition than we often see anywhere else.

I'm in the same boat as Robb. I really wanted a WR but I never anticipated that all my picks at WR would be gone. only guy I liked has a chance to go to another team (which is risky). so you guys forced me to flip the script. went with 2 RB. Sequon who is in a better offense and a better line than he had last year and Henry who also has a better line and better offense. With Henry I expect the value will be in TD. With Sequon I see them moving him around and using him in a multitude of ways. I think it will be interesting to watch. wasnt wanting to go RB-RB but sometimes you gotta take what the draft gives you.

2.01 RB-Sequon Barkley,PHI

1.12 RB Derek Henry, BAL

I am going into a long meeting at some point today but sadly wont know exactly when. I've sent my list in to Mike on the off chance I cant be here. Mike can you confirm you got my email?

its all good. so far no big surprises. the first few picks went largely as I would have expected (give or take)

there are enough of you saying this that I am forced to admit its not as crazy as I thought. I was pretty sure at the very least that the 4 big WR would likely go ahead of him but I guess not so much for the record he just went 1.04 in the July PPR Mock

well, in prepping for the July Mock I have some interesting ADP news. last year more RB's were drafted in round 1 than we are seeing this year (so far) only 3 in the first 10 and 5 in the first 12. This is the first year the first round was significantly tilted toward the WR that I have ever seen. I'm also seeing a lot of discrepencies between ADP and rank. not just for fftoday but for other sites too. I suspect thats because of all the player movement we have seen this last year. anyhow, it would be interesting to see if anyone else has a good take on this. comment at will.

well, its good for you. I'd take that offer too if someone made one like that to me in that situation

Thats actually very good

if you have the #1 pick and you are not allowed to trade it, CMC needs to be who you take. if you are allowed to trade the pick, I'd at least shop it around to see what you can get. Im not 100% keen on the durability so if someone gave me a great offer for that #1 pick I'd let them take that risk. but thats all speculative. because the next question becomes.... how much is enough to make you part with the pick.

yeah, for this year at least. keeper/dynasty you obviously want the young guy. but that much is obvious to most of us.

of course

what used to make RB's the better early buy is the dropoff from the elite to the rest. significant dropoffs in the past. Even looking at the fftoday ratings.... after CMC at 274 projected fantasy points you have about 4 RB projected at 210 to 220 fantasy points and Henry at 200. after that its a slow creep down to 180 fantasy points. that decline used to be more steep and thus it made sense to grab a RB early but if you now look at the wr rankings the separation is greater for the first few and then looks fairly similar to the separation you see at RB. so the key is to get as many of those who have separated themselves as superior players as possible. all the rest are mostly interchangable from a statistical perspective. obviously our job is to find out which ones have the greatest upside or chance to break out and try to get those. but its all speculative. I'd say if you dont get a RB in the first 13-18 picks you might as well wait and go zero RB strategy

I actually dont like Taylor in the sense he seems to miss games every year. if you consider there is a lot of miles on the odometer too. people look at carries over a career, but if looking at that you should also look at college. factoring that in, I think hes had more touches than Derrick Henry. (a buddy of mine checked I'm assuming he did his math right) so that being said, not as keen on him. like the talent, not the injuries. Gibbs may also be gone, though I do like him Probably about the same as Sequon. Sequon is more of a proven commodity but I think Gibbs has a bit more upside. so its really mostly a matter of preference. I prefer Sequon, but wouldnt be unhappy if someone took him and Gibbs was sitting there for me to take.

he did better than most people do coming back from an ACL injury. I cannot deny that.

and to be clear, I also highly value workhorse backs.... so long as they can stay healthy

to be frank hes a first round pick. but not #1 for me. luckily (or unluckily)I wont need to worry about it in the July Mock. I draft #12. pretty sure he will be gone before I get a chance to even consider him.

I know. wasnt naming you by name. but if I'm gonna give you hell for this its only fair I give him hell for doing the same thing. not trying to be a jerk but I also dont need to see a lot of flames on the board. I'd prefer this stays about football and not a debate over who is to blame or who is being a jerk.

well, I use metrics. They can be very useful, but metrics are not everything. Sometimes the metrics are a read on the run game as a whole moreso than the player specifically. what complicates things is when the line isnt good and /or the starting QB misses significant time. some of these issue affected all of these RB. when this happens you need to use the eye test. That will tell you if the player is doing the things they need to do or if the run was bad due to subpar line play etc.

guys we need to chill on this. this all started with this comment that was borderline offside. I came down on someone else who criticized you on another thread for a similar action so I'm not being unfair. Lets keep this about football. everyone has a right to express an opinion. You dont need to agree with it. but we do need to be civil to those who do express theirs.

he had less than 1000 yards rushing. for his talent I consider that to be subpar for him. hes talented enough to do better. so maybe its a matter of perspective.

Polecatt-Welcome aboard. I look forward to a fun draft. Glad you are here to enjoy it with us!