Ray_T

Yeah I like Breece too. and I agree #2 is a bit crazy. Hes a nice talent but people are overpaying at that price. hes an RB1 for sure. but I like a little more certainty than he provides at his ADP. if Rodgers gets hurt again that pick immediately becomes a problem. to be clear I'm not predicting that, but at his age and the fact hes coming off a major injury, his continued good health is not by any means a given. and the value of all the offensive players to some degree is derived from the value they get in an Aaron Rodgers led offense. More Total yards, more TD and more plays from scrimmage due to more first downs. That touches everyone. to complicate things Breece is also returning from an injury himself and had himself a subpar year last year because of it. I dont deny he belongs in the top 10 in terms of RB rankings. Maybe even top 5. But I dont know that I'd be considering him at #2 overall.

I was surprised by that too. I dont know that I'd predict bad things for them. but I think they wont be as good as everyone thinks they will be. that said Rodgers ADP was actually pretty late. 20 among QB and 125 overall. feels like a Weepaws special haha

well, I suspect Diggs would not be the happy camper he is if Houston was planning on playing him out of the slot. hes gunning for another contract in free agency. hed be unhappy if they put him in the slot. Pretty sure we'd see a legendary hissy fit if that were to come to pass.

my point is at this adp the odds of a disappointment are a whole lot lower than they were last year because the bar is set lower with the later ADP

like I mentioned earlier. I dont think this is a desperation play. its more like they needed a field stretching WR3/4 and also wanted someone who has an experience that may be helpful. he played for a superbowl winning team. so they wanted that element in their dressing room and they got it. paid a bit extra because he provides that superbowl experience. but they were happy to do it.

excellent comment. number one rule of fantasy football. 1) Know your league-this includes scoring, rules and what your opponents like to do at the draft table. this trumps nearly every other rule because it affect everything in one way or another including how you should draft your team to maximize results. in terms of waiting, it really depends how the draft falls. you do also need to keep in mind the dynamics for RB isnt the same as the dynamics for WR because if your league starts 2 RB and its a 10 team draft, the squeeze on the position is a whole lot different than it is for a 12 team draft because in a 12 teamer there are not enough starting RB to go around to allow everyone to have a starter as their third RB. someone will need to have a backup/committee guy as their RB3. That dynamic doesnt exist in a 10 teamer as there are enough starting RB for each team to have 2 starters and one backup who are all starters on their respective teams. so the pressure on the position isnt as great. as such, you are more likely to be able to use a zero RB strategy in this scenario.

i understand. Mixons efficiency wasnt good. but when running behind a bad line its only the truly special backs who will perform in that situation. it also does not help when your starting QB goes down and you are running with a backup. if I were a Defensive Coordinator I'd be stacking the box to stop Mixon and force the backup to throw the football. I never got to watch many cincy games after the Burrow injury but it wouldnt surprise me if thats the way it went down. and given that the line wasnt that good to begin with I'm surprised Mixon did as well as he did. so I guess its a matter of perspective. do I think hes a special player. No. do I think hes good enough to provide value as a middling RB2 at a fantasy draft? Yes to be clear if you draft him as an RB1 there is a better than average chance he could disappoint and thats likely where he was drafted the Last couple years. thus, the disappointment

mixons ADP isnt that early to be frank. but for me its a combination of things. 1) when you can draft a player a couple rounds later than the year before, you are getting more value for the draft capital you are expending. so I like Mixon a lot more at this years ADP than I did at last years ADP. 2) the line in cincy has not been good the last couple years. partly due to injury but partly due to non performance of certain players and partly due to losing some starters to free agency. 3) the line in Houston is better than the line was in his old home. so its pretty easy to project a better year. dont get me wrong, I'm not by any means saying this guy is an RB1. but I am saying he provides good value for where his average draft position is. (which happens to be #49 overall and #16 among RB's on average taken early in the 5th round of PPR drafts) so as a middling RB2. I dont mind the pick.

it feels like its likely to be Dell. Though I cannot say for sure. wouldnt surprise me if they move everyone around on some plays

Like I said.... not abnormal for a rookie. and David Montgomery isnt chump change. at one point in his career he was a top 10 back for fantasy. my best guess is on passing downs Monty got the call because hes likely better at blitz pickup. once again, this is a normal thing. young backs sometimes dont get on the field on passing downs for this very reason. if they dont pickup the blitz well, they dont play on downs where its likely to happen. These days the QB is more valuable to a team than a RB so you arent just gonna let your QB get killed. I'm sure they will coach him up in the offseason. while I still think the touches and carries will be split, I do think Gibbs will earn more time on the field and more touches. How much more depends of course on how he progresses.

its hard not to expect a larger workload. early in the season they used him rather sparingly. even after he blew up in week 8 (I think) then he was up and down. That is pretty normal for a rookie until he has fully gained the trust of the coach. I think there were 5 or 6 games where the guy didnt even get 10 carries. I have to believe his workload will even out and he will average at least a couple more carries per game.

to be clear, drafting on the end, flexibility is key. you dont get to set the direction of the draft until it is your turn. you may wanna take a RB but if 9 of the first 11 picks are RB the smart money doesnt buy a RB at that point (even if you had planned it) so I'd plan for 2 scenarios. one where lots of RB go early and one where lots of WR go early. you may even do a third scenario where it is a mix. but the key is flexibility when drafting that late.

100%. if WR (or RB)go early and often, you never wanna go in at the end of a run on a position unless someone slipped through the cracks who shouldn't have. just like if the RB have been picked clean in the first round, you should then probably take the best two WR on the board. its all about getting a premium player. and it doesnt necessarily need to be WR or RB. it can be either. but if you pick 2 WR or 2 RB at the turn and nail both, you will dominate at that position. next goal is to find a second position to dominate.

the upside is there. and to some degree hes been a victim. when the starting QB goes down, your numbers as a WR almost never improve. but there is the recency bias, and he hasnt been super effective recently. fine by me. if hes my #4 WR I really only need him to be effective half the time (hopefully when one of my starters is on bye) but if hes effective all the time I'm totally happy with that. when your WR4 becomes a WR3 or WR2 that's a win.

and I think the third round pick is likely enough to make a 50-50 guy like him not be kept. take the free 3rd round pick and keep who you were gonna keep.

we should probably look at setting the draft order. I am going to be rather busy on the Monday/Tuesday (possibly Wednesday) so knowing where I am picking will help me to organize so I dont make you guys wait

Hollywood Brown's ADP is currently around #78 in standard leagues and #51 in PPR. ranking as the #36 WR in standard leagues and the #32 WR in PPR. this puts him as a low end WR3 or high end WR4. at that ADP I dont mind Hollywood Brown. So as WeePaws said, if you can get him as your WR4 you take him all day long. and if picking your WR3 later than most, hes a decent option but maybe not ideal (depending of course on who is left on the board)

good post. and pass catching RB's usually get scarce once you get into round 3. In my opinion if you can get one or two premium RBs who do it all at the turn, thats a win. Especially if WR have gone early and often in the early part of the draft. while there are one (or maybe two) WR who might be around at this point in the draft I'd make the exception for, I think RB is a good call at this point. You really need a WR in the top tier if you are picking one in round 1. so for me, the answer is..... it depends on who is on the board. That said, I have found that going RB-RB or WR-WR at the turn will create a sense of urgency to grab players at that position after you make the selection, so sometimes doing something like this will turn the draft on its head and start a run at the position (which you likely dont care about if you just picked 2) but may significantly alter the draft strategy others have to use. I know the advantage may be psychological mostly but the problem with that is that you then likely feel like you NEED to take a WR in your next pick. So to some degree, you are also making yourself a bit more predictable. sometimes that matters, sometimes it doesnt.

I never thought he was. at various points I thought he was a WR2 or a top end WR3

That's the thing. you can over think it til the cows come home (to coin a phrase) generally I will go a round earlier than the ADP if I like a guy. in a keeper/dynasty format maybe 2 rounds if I think I'll be the beneficiary for some years. but in redraft there are not many scenarios where you are going 2+ rounds earlier than the ADP where it actually works out. so this rule prevents me from going too far off the rails. I dont mind going a round early on a guy I really like. beyond that I'm likely hurting my own team by doing it. and many years where I have the patience to wait, I end up with the player I wanted a round later anyhow and feel like I made out like a bandit. so it's all a matter of patience and perspective. make a game plan, and stick to it. Especially if you start drinking. you cant stray from the game plan if booze is involved. your draft will fall apart quickly if that comes to pass

fair point. and maybe I'm being a little harsh. Though Washington has been a train wreck for some time. its hard to get the stench of that off of the organization. it actually takes time to change the culture. but I guess we will see. I appreciate your comments. yeah, a change of scenery for both could be good. Though it sounds like San Fran is not going to make this an easy process.

hey I was just putting candidates up based on ADP. its the only info we have at this point. while all of these guys I like at their ADP I also realize that the ADP will move closer to reality as we get closer to draft day. but if you have to draft tomorrow, the ADP numbers is likely your best info in terms of when to draft a player you like. my rule of thumb is to draft the guy one round sooner than his ADP if you feel you NEED to have the player and dont want to overpay by too much. you may have your own way of handling it, but thats how I do it. I have found that when I overpay by too much I almost always end up regretting it. This rule of thumb keeps me from going off the rails too badly.

good info. I thank you for that! but his high efficiency is one of those things that a good coaching staff should look at and conclude they need to involve him more in the short pass game. whether that actually happens (or not) remains to be seen, but it wouldnt surprise me if he got more looks this year.

you say tomato I say Tomahto. lol

I suspect this is probably the case. My gut tells me Deva Diggs wont be the #1 WR here.