Ray_T

I think what keeps him on the field is his pass catching ability

we all are. some here are better at admitting to it than others haha but we all are human and we cant all be right.

I trust the homer on this type of stuff more than anyone else. he likely gets daily info on this team that the rest of us do not.

thanks for the excellent analysis. I thought Mayfield had a good year because teams were keying more on the run to force him to throw (thus the volume you speak of) but knowing he had a very easy schedule and now has a difficult one (relatively), I am not going to double check your work on the easy vs hard schedule thing as youve been spot on on this type of analysis in the past. so assuming you are spot on on this one more time I think the add on the line will (at best) allow him to not completely crater statistically. but thats assuming the kid is productive on day 1. that doesnt always happen. so I think I will downgrade Mayfield in my rankings some. not sure by how much yet but betting on a repeat year is a coin flip at best based on the info you just provided.

I think you would find better interest in the 'find a league, fill a league forum' https://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showforum=50

very true. it is rare that an RB on a losing team puts up numbers. it will happen from time to time, but the bottom line is you need the garbage time to bump you from being good to being elite. that garbage time comes when you are up 2 or more scores late in the game and your team just runs the ball like hell to kill the clock. sometimes the garbage time yards is greater than the yards in the rest of the game so it is a significant advantage. and when you have a better team overall, you are getting more short fields and more TD opportunities get delivered to you via the defense. advantages all around. I think Sequon has a very good year. maybe even a career best

this is just negotiating tactics. but if he threatens to sit out then yeah..... I figured they wouldnt be able to keep both him and Deebo for long. personally I'd rather keep him, but San Fran may feel different

not huge on Deebo or Jefferson. Jefferson at 5 with a rookie QB seems too high even if he is the best WR in pro football. There is an awful lot of risk there and I dont like the idea of using a top 5 pick on a guy with that level of risk

ok gabe played all last season. didnt really miss significant time. but putting that aside, I see a guy whose efficiency was superior to that which gabe provided. on 81 targets Gabe caught 45 for 746 yards and 7 TD on 45 targets Shakir caught 39 for 611 yards and 2 TD. way more efficient (except TD) without knowing more of the offense it could be a case where they used Shakir between the 20's and Gabe got the red zone looks. but I cannot say for sure. while Gabe appears to be the better Red zone target but if he got all the reps in the red zone that would make sense why he got more TD. either way, any WR who catches 39 out of 45 targets should get more work the following season. They'd be dumb not to use him more when the efficiency comes out that high. I would not be surprised to see his targets rise to somewhere in the range of what gabe had last year. maybe more if his efficiency continues to stay where it is. if he can sustain the efficiency with increased reps, the sky is the limit with this kid.

I dont think age had much to do with it. he was 26 last year. too early to decline due to age. but whenever you play on a bad team your metrics usually decline some. especially if the QB play isnt good. If I was a defense I'd stack the box and force the QB (or backup QB as was the case much of last year) to beat you through the air. On the Iggles, the Line is far superior, so I'd expect better numbers, more red zone opportunities and more TD.

thats true. some dont. but that was more a thing that was the norm up until about 15 or 20 years ago.m from what i've seen when you have multiple tears the recovery time is generally not as quick (usually at least 6 months longer) and If my memory is correct I was telling people not to draft him last year. either way, in the last decade or two the medical technology has gotten a lot better. dont get me wrong, multiple tears is still career threatening but not to the degree it was 20 years ago. odds of a full recovery is generally good on ACL tears now. on multiple tears I dont know the numbers to be honest but I do know that the recovery times and the ability to make a full recovery is a lot better than it was say.... 10-20 years ago. biggest risk seems to be that in the year or two after the surgery, the player seems to be at higher risk of Meniscus and other soft tissue injuries. I suspect thats a function of the muscles compensating for the repaired ACL/MCL. Either way, it is certainly a risk factor. I'm not gonna pretend its not. but if the team felt his recovery wasnt where it needs to be why wouldnt they have gone out and drafted or signed another RB? This action (or should I say inaction) leads me to believe there is nothing to see here. I still wouldnt be entirely surprised to see him miss a game or two. but given how confident the team seems, I'm willing to take a shot on him at his ADP (whatever that happens to be) if that puts him into RB3 territory, I'd be totally happy to have him as my RB3. if healthy, real good upside and at that price I'm not paying for the upside.

I hear you. the fact that many of us have our own strategies makes fantasy football interesting. if we all felt the same, we'd all draft the same way. how fun would that be? we all have our little things we do that make us think give us an advantage. sometimes they work, sometimes not. but if you are in a league for 10 years and win more than 1 championship, you have likely done better than average. if you win 2 or more, you've crushed it. but most importantly (hopefully) you had fun along the way.

welcome aboard. I'll tell you now, we wont always agree, but even if we dont agree....... if you are respectful so will I be. best rule for the board. have fun!

I"m not fully sure what to make of this yet. I think Spears definitely gets used more in the pass game. and he likely gets a few more runs so It wouldnt surprise me if he outperforms the current projection. Not sure if hes good enough to unseat Pollard but Pollard doesnt look to have the durability of Henry so this could be a legit 2 person timeshare. possibly with a 50-50 split.

you are probably right. but people will look at his playoff (which was pretty decent) and they will ignore what you just pointed out. Hes a top 10 TE. of that I have no doubt. Top 5..... maybe. but that may be pushing it. top 3? no. I'm out on that. and likely only the top 5 or 6 deserve to be drafted before round 5 or 6 so you can probably guess (within a round) where I'd draft him (if he falls that far) and we all know he wont fall that far, so that means I'm unlikely to draft him this year. and I'm ok with that.

stats always go bad in the aftermath of an ACL injury. This is one of those cases where looking at the metrics in the year after the injury wont help you a lot. the acceleration or burst isnt quite there, but moreso than that the lateral agility and ability to make sharp cuts. thats the part where the injury really affects a RB. and thats usually the last thing to return to form when returning from this injury. I wouldnt even look at last years stats other than maybe the last couple games of the year to see if we have seen improvement in the latter half of the year. you want to look at the previous year(s) when healthy. that will give you a better indicator of what hes likely to look like when healthy. that said, outside of the rookie year, the sample size is small. but the early part of 2022 looked promising prior to the injury. the real thing you want to look at is what the team is doing in the offseason. It does not look like they drafted anyone. so they seem pretty confident in what they have. and I dont see anyone on the roster who looks to be a legitimate threat to his job. Given that, I truly think the team is fully committed to Javonte (for this year at least) so he has a chance to do some things. of course how far this goes will also depend mostly on QB play and line play. Bo Nix (or Stidham) have to at least be good enough that teams will see the pass game as a legit threat. if that doesnt happen, defenses will stack the box, key on the run and force that crappy QB to beat them through the air. so in that scenario, he wont be much better than a low ranking RB2. but if the QB play is decent I can see him having a very decent year. especially if the line plays well too.

you can hope. but there will be one person in most drafts who will draft because of the name. hes probably a 2nd round pick. some will still take him in round 1 even though they likely shouldnt

Chase is actually easier to rank. his QB missed 1/3 of the season last year. so you know what it looks like if Burrow misses time. while the expectation is that Burrow is healthy the same thing applies. assuming he plays 10-12 games you project maybe a little better than last years stats(1200 yards) and assume burrow misses 2-3 games. I actually think the fftoday estimate is close to where I'd come out. if he and burrow are fully healthy, you could be looking at 1500 to 1600 yards. but the fftoday estimate of just over 1300 yard is reasonable in terms of accounting for the injury risk. so without doing a deep dive, I'd rank him in the 5-8 range overall among WR. of course Id refine this estimate as we get closer to the season. I'd probably rank him close to #8 right now and move him up as the regular season approaches if it looks like both he and Burrow are looking good (and healthy).

that said, if the starter isnt very good, sometimes an injury is a benefit to the WR haha

for WR if there is a significant risk for their starting QB to get injured I do move them down my board

they always talk up the rookies early in camp. partly to give them a little confidence and partly to say hey we did a good job drafting. and partly to create hype for the team and sell some tickets. this is a nothing burger.

oh yeah, and what do you think the odds are that Kyler Murray is healthy all year? is that factored into your rankings? for the record, that would be part of the worst case scenario for him

I'm leaning towards the 20 mark. I have him as a low end to mid range WR2. certainly hes one of those guys where if you look at end of year he could be anywhere between a WR4(worst case) and low to mid range WR1 (best case). and you should never draft that close to the best case scenario unless the low end of the spectrum is close to where the best case is. That is a situation that almost never happens with rookies. if he blows the doors off in camp I may bump him up a couple spots but that 18-20 range feels like its pretty close. That said, sometimes your rankings go a bit different once you get deeper into them but right now this is where I am at.

well, that makes it easy. I didnt even know about that

I never went back in time to count. I knew he won the July mock a couple years back and all the teams ive seen him draft looked pretty solid to me. either way, I could go on about things I like and dislike about his style but the results speak for themselves.