Ray_T

I have to agree with Kilroy......if he scores 20 TD he has a shot. but thats an awful lot of TD's to predict for anybody. no matter how good the team and the offense is. an RB has only scored 20 TD 11 times ever since the league formed.

I dont think there is any doubt he is in decline. historically there have not been a lot of TE's who put up top 5 numbers beyond the age of 31. and at his age, the only one who has put up top 10 numbers was Tony Gonzalez. Granted he may be the best of all time, so its possible he has one more elite year in him. I'm just not betting on that at his current ADP. I will let someone else take that risk

the NFL did at times too. there were some games (especially early in the year) where they played to stuff the run and dared him to throw the ball. but he turned out to be a bit better than everyone thought hed be. I fully agree the line additions via the draft should help though sometimes it takes a year for an O lineman to fully get their feet under them at the pro level. that said, if we assume that Barton is a plug and play guy (and he could potentially be) that would be a difference maker for this offense.

I wouldnt say he was over the hill. he still passed the eye test for me. but hes not quite as fast as he was the year prior. but there were definitely some nights when the line did not open much in the way of holes to run through. when the line played well, Henry performed without fail. when the line didnt perform it was hit or miss. that said, I fully realize the end is near. but the slip in rush production was more a function of the decline of the line in Tenessee than it was due to Henry.

there is usually one or two matchups each year against top defenses where he wont be all that good. but overall, I'd agree with this

agreed. he still lights up bad defenses. at worst hes a spot start. but hes one of those QB's who is a better fantasy QB than he is an actual QB I dont know that you will ever win a superbowl with him but he will always get the cowboys to the playoffs so long as the surrounding cast is decent

no offense, but coming off an ACL injury I was pretty sure he wasnt gonna be that good last year. Honestly given the situation, he was actually better than I thought hed be. I had him pegged for maybe 700 total yards. He exceeded that total. Year prior he played only 4 games due to the injury. bad luck for you I'll admit. but I do believe in his talent. I'd predict more for him if I knew his QB situation was for sure gonna be average or better, but that situation is likely a coin flip so its hard to predict much more than low end RB2 production. but if things fall right he could become a low end RB1 and one of the things he needs for this to happen is good QB play. but add the risks (QB, bad team and possible residual injuries that sometimes come after an ACL tear) I'd say if you get him at the price of an RB3 you wont likely be disappointed. obviously the more you pay, the less likely he lives up to expectations as those expectations rise if you draft him earlier.

well, if his ADP is that late, then I draft him as my RB3 and hes a fantastic insurance policy

I actually think Javonte williams has an outside shot at becoming an RB1 this year. last year he was coming off an ACL injury and still performed reasonably well. with the ACL fully healed I wouldnt be surprised if his performance got better this year. What I dont know is how the QB change is likely to play out. They could run the ball a whole lot more to put less pressure on their QB. but the concern of course is if the game script flips (as it may if they are a losing team) and that could hinder his production. either way I dont mind taking this kid as my RB2. I dont know where his ADP is at the moment but I suspect his price is likely reasonable.

Dak was never truly a top 5 QB. his stats were huge for about 3 or 4 years because he played in the worst division in football and racked up the stats against all those bad teams that he got to play 2x per year. lots of years I looked at strength of schedule and Dak had one of the top 3 easiest. Now that the division has at least one legit defense (philly) and Washington and New york are improved (but still bad) its not so much of a cakewalk as it was. also a couple years ago I did an analysis on here. Daks record against sub .500 teams is huge. against playoff calibre teams... not great. hes honestly a slightly above average QB who lit it up with stats against some really bad defenses.

This is kind of my thought as well. but I'm willing to keep an open mind and wait and see how camp plays out. a lot of these questions get answered in camp.

well, if you go by the follow the money theory, the money is on Moss.

he had the bones for his own fantasy football board (mostly a blog) but then never followed through on it. I visited as a courtesy when he gave me the url. I think on this board only myself and Weepaws ever visited (though maybe one or two of you also visited and never posted) I went to the site today and the board is still operating but no activity. I think his dream was to get this thing up and running but clearly he ran out of time.

lots of good, valid points here. I am going to add a couple more. Moss never lost the job to Singletary. the job belonged to Singletary and moss was supposed to take it from him but he never did. That said..... the Bills have been a team that has done a mediocre job of running the ball at best. Their O line is decent but seems to do a far better job in pass pro than they ever did running the ball. So even if he won the starting job, there, I dont know that I'd think that much differently about him. I felt he and Singletary were pretty close in terms of talent. for whatever reason the team liked Singletary better. Then he moves to Indy. maybe one of the best run blocking lines in the NFL and his efficiency gets a whole lot better. based on YPC his efficiency would suggest he could start. and behind a good line I think he does an adequate job. but I'm not a big believer in the line in Cincy. they have had some issues the last couple years (partly due to injuries) but still seemed to run the ball ok most nights. This is part of the reason why Mixons efficiency dropped as well. My expectation is that Moss drops to around 4 YPC which is better than his buffalo days but not as good as his Indy days. which is ok. but not so good that he cannot be displaced by someone who comes in and plays well. Is Chase Brown that guy? I dont know. but thats where we are at. if his efficiency is below 4 YPC I could see the team giving brown a shot at some point regardless. but I am with you. if he had other options and chose to come here, it is likely because some promises were made. so Chase brown likely has to kick that door down in order to change peoples minds. to that end, it is likely that Moss starts off the season as the #1 guy there. how long he holds that job depends on how he (and the team) perform.

its possible. though I think a committee of sorts is the most likely scenario. thereby making neither back any better than an RB3 if someone wins the starting job outright, then RB2 is possible and likely

his ypc were not bad but he was playing behind a far better line than the one he will be running behind in cincy. he might be a volume based RB2 if he is not in a committee. but I dont see him cracking the top 10.

yeah, I swear there were some days when I swear he had to be online almost all day. either way, different strokes for different folks.

well, it looks like they could have shortened that up by 75% and the article would be just as useful. important takeaway is he has a lower body injury at the moment. given he came back from an ACL injury, not entirely surprising. you are usually a bit more prone to the soft tissue injuries once you have your ACL reconstructed.

New York Jets Release Concerning Injury Update On Superstar RB Breece Hall (msn.com) since hes ranked top 10, I figured I should post this link which just popped up on my feed

true. sometimes when a piss poor organization drafts a QB its hard for that QB to thrive in that kind of scenario. though the guy replacing him is the shiny new toy drafted in round 1. politically its a dangerous move to not give the kid the starting job at some point. Darnold would need to blow the doors off statistically and win his games to keep the kid off the field. if Darnold goes 3-3 or 4-2 in the first 6 games.......I'd suggest that may not be good enough. Though 4-2 may warrant giving him a couple extra games. (if they give him that much of a leash) more likely if hes not winning they pull him after 2 or 3 games and put in the kid.

well, they will probably need it.

yeah, playing on a better team will usually improve the stats.

I dont trust a lot of the mocking sites. especially for auctions it feels like yahoo throws in an AI who then bids up to a level its programmed to bid(for auction) or drafts according to the draft list of whoever does the Mock draft and doesnt take situation into account. and in a lot of cases you get a guy who comes in to mock round 1 and then bails for round 2 or 3 and his team essentially drafts from the list. so the mock doesnt actually help a whole lot in cases like that. the fftoday mock is useful. some of the other mocks on other fantasy sites can be useful too. but these sites that do 5-10 mocks per hour are mostly useless. Certainly there is info to glean from it. but once you've seen one or two of these, you've probably seen enough.

yeah, and white was a pass catching RB so when the game script went poorly he still got fed.. that helped. generally when the game script goes upside down because the team is bad, the run game gets abandoned in the second half. (at least if the game isnt all that close) so RB's on bad teams tend to underperform when compared to their actual talent as a player. pass catching RB's can do a little better when the game script flips like that but it also depends how much the team/qb like to throw the ball to their RB too. In Tampa, white got fed a lot in the pass game. honestly a lot more than I was expecting. His run stats are actually quite mediocre. 3.6 yards per carry. but 64 catches at an average of 8.6 yards per catch is pretty sweet. and for a 2nd year player, thats pretty good. usually takes a RB a while to get the reads and the routes down pat. I figured hed build on his rookie year (which was ok) but he did more than that. as for Brooks, he tore his ACL late last year, so the odds of him being a top 10 RB this season is pretty slim. Breakout for him is likely next year. but hes a nice dynasty add now if you are willing to wait a year. I could see them using him as a scat back to start, but the running will mostly stay with Chubba. Chubba doesnt excite me as a player, but I think he takes the first and second down role in this offense.

well, I used to do a work draft on yahoo. most people used the yahoo rankings so I'd just go through the yahoo rankings (which are not that good) and find the players who are over/under valued and I planned for the undervalued players to drop in the draft a bit. I would then tweak my strategy and sometimes pass over a player on the assumption he may drop another round. strategy worked brilliantly. so when that is the scenario, finding problems in the rankings of the draft provider can be a very easy path to victory in an office draft (or something of the like)