Ray_T

one conclusion and I think this thread proves it..... market value isnt finite. it is a range of value. your job as a buyer is to find the lowest price within that range that your trading partner will accept. As a seller, your job is to get the highest price within that range. somewhere along the way negotiating skill will play a role but in the end you have to be happy with the deal you make. this has been a fun discussion and the best part is that nobody got angry we all said what we had to say. see. we can have a civil conversation about players values.

get in line. Everyone and their dog wants him.

fair enough. that said I've seen people do some real stupid stuff in a fit of rage after losing a game in some leagues. odds are low that you find him on the wire, but not zero. that said, maybe you send a nice low offer or a draft pick or something. if you dont ask, you will never acquire.

impressive. and this kid wasnt drafted at all? I'm guessing thats because of where he played college but hes shown more on that tape than what I've seen on most of the backup QB's in the league. I saw the ability to throw his WR open, I saw going to the checkdown and throwing the ball away to avoid the pick/sack. sure there was one or two bad throws in there but you will get that even with a guy drafted in the first round. I see your point. Kid has some moxie. I'll check out the scouting report to see what that says but I can see the bears giving this kid a shot if things go sideways. if they dont, they should.

I will check his scouting reports and see if I can find some game tape on him and I'll let you know. problem with game tape is its only as good as the person putting it together. some people will conveniently not put in the tape that contradicts what they are saying about the guy and can taint the results a bit.

haha in the offseason I'm more of a hockey guy. I dont do baseball. that said if any of you need advice on your hockey pool, I'm your guy.

I think when the matchup is right thats where he is. he lacks the consistency of a true RB1. TBay is right in his analysis with respect to this part of his production. he wont be a true RB1 until the consistency is there. Keep in mind the difference between a high end RB2 and Low end RB1 isnt all that huge. we dont differ by all that much.

fair enough. and I cannot disagree. maybe the knee is still giving him issues. as you Polecat said..... hes having Quad issues and he is not wrong in saying thats a bad sign for someone coming off of an ACL issue. either way, not a guy you break the bank for in redraft. but if you have a non competitive team in a dynasty league, you do pick this guy up if he is on the waiver wire or if you can acquire him for cheap. Better days are ahead. you just may not see them until next season.

I am gonna check out his scouting report. if what you say is true this feature alone makes him likely better than a chunk of starters currently playing. Knowing what the defese is doing is half the battle. but that isnt everything. Leftwich was a QB who famously was good in this way but his super slow throwing motion largely negated any advantage he got from this. but it is one of the talents that the elite QB's all seem to have. guys like Manning or Brady knew what the defense was doing maybe even before the defense did. it didnt seem to matter what the defense did. they'd fake the blitz then they'd fake the fake and then fake themselves out. fun to watch those guys play against top defenses and still lite them up anyways. anyhow that said, if this kid is good in that way I'm surprised they have not already given him a shot. he could be the next Brady.

thursday games are always harder to predict because of the short week. I have found that the shorter week takes coaching and preparation out of the equasion and its more like backyard football where its more about talent and the ability to AD LIB when plays break down. but I'm not a big gambler. I have a buddy who asks me to make picks for him every week. he wins a fair bit of cash off of it and occasionally gives me kickbacks when he has a good week. its not much but I get a little pocket money out of the deal and dont have to risk anything.

no it isnt. that is the thing with ACL injuries...... the player is far more susceptable to Quads and soft tissue injuries in the year after the surgery. not sure why that is, but it seems to happen a lot. likely muscles compensating for an ACL that isnt functioning optimally. cant say for sure. I am not a doctor. but that does seem to be the case more often than not and is the reason I avoid these players unless I can get them at the price of an RB3 or cheaper. At least at that price the risk isnt huge. replacing players at the bottom of the lineup is far easier than replacing them at the top of your lineup. either way, hes a guy you treat as an RB3 until he shows he can be an RB2 and I'm sure late in the season (assuming good health) he will have some decent games. but the Burst and cutting ability everyone loves wont return until next year.

well, I can see where you come from on this. I own him in one league and he was firmly on my bench in week 1. I figured the game script was not gonna be great with the team playing without Kelce and what looked like an injured Toney (who was supposed to be the teams WR1) Detroit being a pretty good team I figured the game script might be negative. (and it was) Pacheco also had a pre season injury which may have played into week 1 and 2 (though maybe not. hard to say these days) My dobbins injury forced me to play Pacheco in week 2 so I really had no choice at the time as I hadnt seen enough of Kyren Williams to trust him at that point. week 3 and 4 he was solid against two teams I expected some garbage time love for Pacheco. so the dud I expected may happen in week 1 was somewhat predictable for me. week 2 was not....but week 3 and 4 were largely as expected for me and he has 5 straight matchups that are looking good. what I dont like is he has Buffalo and New England in week 14 and 15 and those wont likely be pretty. but I do think the next 4-5 weeks look good (assuming good health)

that might be pushing it. I think certain promises were made to Jimmy G to get him to sign there. but he gets hurt a lot. so its not pushing it to maybe sit him an extra week and give the kid an extra week of playing experience.

I agree. it would I love when (for example) TBay comes in and posts on the status of his team. I trust the homer on whats really going on with their team as they are more likely to know all the significant injuries and even some of the politics with the team (ie. who is in the coaches doghouse and such) That kind of info is tough to get if you are not getting the local news.

well, Javonte so far is doing about what I thought he would do. I figured early in the season he may be on a pitch count. hes certainly not getting a lot of carries but part of this may be due to gamescript. I have not watched enough to say for sure that its one or the other. The team has been bad overall. Worse than I thought they would be to be bluntly honest. Garbage time is basically a steaming hole where the run game used to be because in many games, the team has been down a lot of points far too early in the game. this takes away from his value in a huge way. if you are playing in dynasty and on a losing team, now would be the time to buy him if you can get him on the cheap. Next year I'd expect better things from Javonte. but in Redraft, hes probably an RB3 for much of this year. depending on how his recovery goes, in the second half of the season he may or may not be an RB2.... but if the team as a whole continues to play badly that may be wishful thinking.

honestly, his value has already depreciated. I dont see them getting a whole lot less for him at the end of the season as compared to today. so might as well hold and see if he can be the player they hope he can be. like you said, if he cant cut it, they will inevitably get a high draft pick and select another QB. This is the way.

I think when he said nobody will give them anything for him.... I think he meant relative to the price they initially paid for him if they trade him for a 4th round pick, thats the price you pay for a backup QB or a washed up #1 QB (which is likely what hed be treated as in the event of a trade) while its not nothing, its also not a lot.

you are right. he was RB24 or better only 6 times but he also never became the starter until week 10 so that stat is deceiving. even then it was a somewhat shared backfield which (to some degree) has resolved itself now. I do think he will still have his ups and downs as his value will be somewhat in the matchup and gamescript. like I said, KC will win a lot of games so this will only affect him in a few games. but if KC has (for argument sake) an 8-9 season Pacheco would lose a lot of his value. This is one reason you would not be wise to pay the price of an RB1 for him. but if you could get him for a price that says Middling RB2 or lower I'd say its a good deal.

yeah can we consolodate to only one thread per team? I do agree if you were betting this might make the betting line a lot wider but in general the bears are a pretty boring team and I dont care to talk about them much

well, it also makes me wonder how much of this is QB play and how much is coaching. I'm sure it is some combination of the two. at times he showed flashes of looking like a player only to regress and then progress and regress again. its like every time the bring in a new OC they have to start from square one with him.

despite the results he looked like a capable nfl QB. obviously its his first start so there is still a lot for him to learn but I think hes already better than some NFL starters in this league. If Jimmy G stinks the joint out I could see them moving to this kid to see if they can develop him into a starter

when the gamescript is positive hes a borderline RB1. when negative hes a borderline RB2/3 chiefs win most of their games so I'd treat him as a solid RB2 against all but the toughest matchups and defenses.

he also needs to get into game shape. just because hes good enough to play doesnt mean he can take a full workload. hes missed 4 weeks and some preseason time.

that is the dilemma with this guy. and I hate to say it, but when the mid WR1's are going and you are up to bat, the right move is to pass and let someone else take the chance on him. if he slides to you in the next round you get him at a price that is more in line with what he delivers. its tough, but sometimes you gotta draw the hard line on players like this. pick them where you think there is value and dont reach for them early as the odds of it paying off isnt great.

I agree. though during the game I noted (either here or on another thread) someone complaining that the giants are using Waller to block too much. I assume this was an attempt to solve this issue but clearly it did not work. (not well enough anyhow) yes part of this falls on the coach, but even so, the line is not doing its job either. Not sure if this is a drafting issue a coaching issue or a player development issue (or all of the above) I do not know if the line has been dealing with injuries so this could (in theory) play a part as well. All I do know is while I was watching it was Bad. so bad I actually ended up turning the TV off. Its no fun watching a good team kick the crap out of a bad one.