Ray_T

Akers had the Achilles injury going into the start of last season and it showed. early season he was not that good. but based on his performance closer to the end of the year I'm inclined to think the Achilles may no longer be an issue.

hard to say. Cleveland was 7-10 last year. I have to believe Watson is better this year than he was last year. I dont know how the defense is looking but every team in that division was .500 or better. I want to predict but they finish close to 9-8 or 8-9 (or something of the like) but I think Pittsburgh is also improved next year, so its not as clear cut as you would think they may well have the same kind of season they had last year. Though it is possible Baltimore takes a step back. usually after throwing a pile of cash at a QB the team has to give up talent elsewhere to remain under the cap. but its really a crapshoot. I dont see the Ravens becoming a bottom dwelling team either, so maybe they do finish poorly again even if I do think they will be better than last year.

that is unfortunate. for sure. not much you can do about it now. Sequon is solid. I'm not sure this is a move you want to make. he may end up being the #1 WR in Houston. if CJ Stroud can play, you probably dont want to put him on the wire. in general if a WR is #1 on the depth chart for their team, they probably should be rostered. There are exceptions to this rule, (like when the #1 option in the pass game happens to be a TE) but that situation does not exist here. if he doesnt perform early or if the #1 WR looks to be Robert Woods then I'd consider dropping him

this is the right answer. Never bench your studs. if he proves hes unable to perform, then you bench him. so due to the injury you may want to carry a second qb (just in case) for the first couple weeks of the season

yeah, 53% while fully healthy dude. you dont come back from ACL injury and get the same share of the carries. (at least not at first) I think its more likely he starts the season with 30% and gradually rises to 45 or maybe 50% by year end. and only if his knee shows improvement over that time frame. and thats a very big IF. Lots of guys require a cleanup procedure within a year of the surgery to remove scar tissue and such. so its not necessarily a given that you can count on him. sorry dude. we will have to agree to disagree on this issue.

ok further to this. I checked fftoday's article titled the big uglies which takes ratings from PFF for the line. while this line is middle of the pack, the pass block grade is above average and the run block grade leaves a lot to be desired. I'm having a change of heart on Mixon. I'd say avoid at his ADP. I dont think hes a great option unless the line does better than predicted.

technically his ADP was at around #40 among RB's(making him a high end RB4). it should rise drop some with this injury. so he is likely a low end RB3. now I would not draft him as my RB3. I like to have RB depth so I usually draft my RB4 before all the RB3's are gone. if you do what I do, this is your guy. good depth player with a little upside due to situation.

I do agree with your point. any team with reasonable logic and reason wont risk it. but we all know not all teams have good logic/reason in their decision making. they shouldnt risk running with Tua. but they might do it anyway. (or Tua may call his own number despite what the coach calls)

yeah, and i think the third slot might be the toughest slot to do a zero RB strategy as well. though I dont mind the idea of taking a WR in round 1 and then bouncing back and taking a RB in round 2 and 3. some fairly decent RBs are dropping into round 2 and 3 now. a buddy of mine in a draft (not sure the level of competition in that one) called me when his pick was happening in the middle of round 2 and he was deciding between Henry and Jacobs who were both on the board. while I wouldnt count on that happening in your draft, especially in your draft slot because you draft at 1 and then not again until 24 and 25. Thats what really sucks in the #1 slot. the draft can literally go in too many directions before you have the chance to pick again so making an estimate of where you expect to be when you next pick is challenging at best. I do like Pierce and Walker. and based on ADP, they should both be on the board when you are back up to draft. Mixon is an option. his numbers were down but the Bengals had big time line problems last year. The line was average at best and then had early season injuries and it showed in the offenive performance of the team (mostly in the ground game) It looks like they have made some moves to shore this up. Most of the sites that do line rankings have them as middle of the pack. I think one had them at #13 (slightly above average) and another had them in the lower half again. so he might be a good option. I'm looking at whether I want to get him in my auction draft. I'm really on the fence. That said.....so if you went Justin Jefferson and then came back and took Mixon, there is a fair chance both Pierce and walker will be available when you next pick. another option would be to take Jeffereson, and another WR in round 1 and at the 2/3 turn grab another WR and Mixon and then go for Pierce/Walker combo when it comes back to you (or just take one if you think your depth is good enough) but the best strategy will be dictated by the time round 2 comes around. if a run on RB happens, there is more incentive for you to grab a WR at the turn. if a run on WR happens (which I have seen more of) then I'd likely go the other direction and take at least one RB. (possibly 2 if a RB you like drops) the second option gives you the option to let the draft come to you. (which I like)

I would be comfortable with him as my backup. I'd be nervous with him as my starter. in a case where you run a tandem totally fine. for example if drafting Tua, it makes sense to have a reasonable backup on the roster. I think Geno would be ideally used in a situation like this

He’s 28, he definitely could come in to be a goal line back he is also coming back from a Lis Franc injury. That injury is terrible for RB's. especially if surgery is needed. usually surgery on this injury means your career is likely done. I'd say far better than 50% chance the career is over if surgery is needed. if rest and rehab only...... the odds of a recovery are better. but there is still a good chance he will never be the player he was. and given his playing weight, I'd say the odds are greatly against him. The Lis Franc area is a part of the mid foot. nearly every nerve, tendon, muscle in the foot goes through that part of the foot as well as a few small bones. an injury there will significantly affect the burst, the power and the ability to move laterally. it affects nearly everything a RB needs to do to be successful. and because that part of the foot supports the whole weight of the player, the larger the player is, the lower the chance of recovering from this type of injury. the other issue is the injury will often come back after it has healed. If signing a player with his condition, I'd do a very thorough medical as well as a tryout to make sure he can still play. he has had a number of meetings with teams and all have passed on signing him. I am certain the injury has scared some teams away. I do hope he can come back from this terrible injury but I'm skeptical.

I'm watching this show now.... its like a train wreck you cant turn away from. its like they take the most stupid questions and answer them. Makes me really appreciate what we have here. That said, it is funny that some people can be this dumb. its basically like buying a book called fantasy football for dummies.

each is a tool. they have their place and their uses. I like the eye test. when I see players do something special I dont care if they are JAG. once they start doing stuff like that, its only a matter of time til more special stuff appears in their game. the metrics can be helpful in predicting a breakout before the breakout happens. Depending of course on which metrics and how you use them in your analysis. Metrics by themselves are useless if you dont know what they mean or how to use them. just like good metrics can mean nothing if the coach wont give the player the playing time he needs to perform. Lots of factors to consider and you need to look at them all. I once picked a player because of metrics alone. it did not work out. the analytics said he should be a breakout candidate. after I drafted him he didnt do much. i looked at tape to see why. it was because the player had a very specific skillset and the coach used him in a very specific way. the metrics were good. but when they increased the playing time it was discovered that he couldnt do some of the other things on different kinds of plays. teams knew to key on the one type he was good at because the other type he wasnt. so the guy who only succeeds on inside runs but cant bounce it outside eventually gets figured out. Metrics may not tell you that until you get a large enough sample size. and even then, you need to be looking for it. thats where the eye test becomes important. looking at usage. line play, team play. its a nice tapestry with a mix of everything. but to rely on analytics alone? Not wise. you need context. if the analyitics change for a player, you also need to know why and whether the conditions that led to the change (positive or negative) still exist. if they do not, you can expect a regression back to the average in many cases. food for your thoughts.

well, in terms of playing. Dalvin is also on a 1 year prove it deal. hes gonna run his *ss off. the team wont be afraid to run him into the ground. you know they wont do that with their young stud recovering from ACL surgery. They dont want to risk re-injury. (at least if they are being smart about it) this feels like a match in heaven.

well if they thought Breece would be able to take a full workload why wouldnt they spend less money and get a guy like Hunt or Zeke? Thats my point. I know how well regarded Breece is. I love the guy. but when you throw this kind of cash at another RB the belief is that the guy they threw money at will play. This tells me Breece isnt ready yet. at least not for a full workload.

it is hard to say how people adjust their draft boards. a last minute injury like this.....you wont tell how it affects ADP until sometime after your draft. so at this point, its a best guess thing. personally I dont think he should be taken in round 1 anymore. others may throw caution to the wind and draft him at his ADP. and some fantasy players who dont pay attention wont even realize hes got this issue and will draft him anyways. its a crapshoot.

you sign Dalvin cook and give him the kind of cash you are giving him, you might as well be telling Breece to take a seat (at least in the early part of the season) Cook does sometimes get dinged up or hurt late in the year, and that would be the point where Breece may get more work.

honestly I'd try to trade out of the first pick. I hate that draft slot. especially this year. but that may not be an option in your league.

honestly its an issue for all WR. older is a bit worse. I seem to notice anyone who has had ACL surgery seems to be more prone to getting this injury in the 2-3 years after the surgery. I suspect its muscles compensating for the injury. but who knows. I am not a doctor. I'd like to see if there is stats to back that up.

yeah I'm starting to come around to that way of thinking. at the very least, I think hes no longer a first round pick.

took a look. now take a look at Tyler Locketts scouting report coming out of college. the report isnt exactly the same but it reads pretty close. Looks like Mims is a little faster. Lockett was a little more finished in his route running coming out of college, but they look like they are basically the same player. noting that Russell Wilson is his QB I would think Wilson would be able to direct him (help coach) in the same way he dealt with Locket. the skillset looks to be largely the same. the only question is whether he could burst onto the scene as quickly as Lockett did as a rookie. Lockett was a 500-600 yard WR for the first 3 years of his career (possibly 4) before breaking out. So to that end I do not know that hes much more than a late round pickup in redraft. but I do think he should be rostered.

you might be right on this. I'm gonna look at some scouting reports to verify what I suspect to be true

Waller is the guy I am targetting in my big money auction league (if I can get him at a reasonable price)

you are right. hes big. first scouting report I read wasnt super glowing but suggested hes a great blocker and would be a fantastic special teams player. I pulled a different report and found some good stuff. His catch radius is very good. his run after the catch is also good so he can make some big plays. the following was posted in his scouting report. his 40 time was 4.58. so hes a bit slower than you would like him to be. but his size does make up for some of that. hes a nice big target for a QB. Top Reasons For Concern: Season-ending injuries (2020 and 2022) Limited production Raw prospect so he needs some coaching. the report suggests he will have limited use in year 1. and the NFL is far more hard hitting than college, so I fear the injury factor with him. its not generally a good sign to be injury riddled even before you make the NFL. from the look of it the talent IS there. I'm just not sure of everything else.

you are probably right. but there are 2 ways to approach this: 1) keep him on your roster for week 1 (just in case he blows up right away) or 2) if your roster is full, you put him on your watch list and pick him up if he shows signs of being a player. problem in miami is the RB situation is not ideal. and the possibility that they just may suddenly take the plunge and sign Kareem Hunt really dampens any excitement I have about anyone on the roster currently. the difference now(for me) is they are probably a buy at their ADP where before I would wait til they are going later than their ADP to get them. for RB I do typically try to grab a low cost, low floor/high upside player late in my draft or auction and hes now on the list of 3 or 4 guys I will try to get. If I get him and he doesnt show anything in the first couple games he likely gets dropped for another guy who shows some signs of a possible breakout. If I dont get him, he fits into category 2 where I watch him and may buy using FAAB if he shows signs of value.