Showboat

Moss and Pollard both signed big (for RB) free agent contracts, but I expect they will both give way to their younger competition (Brown and Spears) as the season wears on (and the Moss contract has a reasonable "out" after only 1 year). If either of these guys has a fast start, they could be good "sell high" candidates on the trade market. Chubb is certainly worth a mid-round gamble. Knowing when you need to pull the trigger is all about knowing your league.

This Lions regime has always employed an RBBC. I see no reason why Monty won't still be the primary early down/short yardage back. I expect both Monty and Gibbs to finish the season with 1000+ total yards and ~10 TDs each. That's great value for a mid-round pick, but perhaps a bit disappointing for those expecting a top 5 RB stats from Gibbs.

Everyone should know that DeAngelo Montgomery was the swiftiest player ever. It;s a shame that thread was somehow lost and apparently unable to be resurrected.

Something doesn't make sense here. If 3rd round feels right for Kyren, that is no better than a top 15 RB, not a top 5 RB.

A decent list - yeah, tough to rank Jacobs as a top 5. Gibbs is someone I don't think will improve much on last season's numbers, so I see him closer to 10 than 5. Monty is still around and the Lions coaching staff seems determined to get him plenty of value touches (which kind of limits Gibbs' upside). When Gibbs was unleashed in the middle of last season, I think it caught some teams off-guard. With a more tape, I expect D's to be a bit better prepared for him so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a sophomore slump.

No doubt, it's more of a gut feeling on my part. IMO bold predictions should be based on kernels of truth and plausibility - just trying to lay out what I think those are. I'm sure many will continue to take Lamb as #1 or #2 WR - I just don't see it as a sure-fire slam dunk. As noted, the Cowboys have roughly stayed the same - I just don't see any areas where they really upgraded. When much of the rest of the league is improving and you staying the same, I see that as falling behind

Yes, but what will he do this season? In the financial world they use the axiom that past performance is no guarantee of future results. I think the Cowboys took a couple of steps backwards compared to the rest of the league and they will not be very good. Throw in a probable holdout and any buyer taking Lamb as the first or second WR off the board should beware. The best-case scenario may be that he doesn't get an extension and is playing for a next contract (but that might mean he holds out into the regular season). Any holdout is problematic as those guys seem to often have nagging injuries throughout the season (and if he gets an extension worked out prior to the season, his motivation might be low once he realizes that the Cowboys stink). My bold prediction is that he falls out of the top 10.

Hmmm. No chatter about CeeDee Lamb. Reports are that he definitely won't participate in training camp without a new contract. I think the Cowboys are a hot mess and even if they manage to work out a deal, I think he will disappoint anyone expecting top 5 WR numbers (not to mention #1).

I said easily a first rounder - I think we agree. I was just trying to answer your question about why people might be concerned with Hall.

The potential issues I see with Hall are associated with Rodgers - he's old (does he still have it or is it his time to fall off the cliff), if he does still have it, he has the tendency to throw those 1-yd TD passes (that can cap the ff value for the lead back). Still, easily a first rounder.

If BB was still around, I'd be more concerned about Gibson limiting Stevenson's numbers. I get the sense that Mayo would prefer a workhorse featured back - I suspect Stevenson will get all the work he can handle with his upside limited by an offense that does not appear to be that great on paper. Of course, if Maye exceeds expectations there is the potential for massive value at his current ADP.

I think you are mis-reading the chart for playoff wins - the number applies to each QB so that would be 36 combined wins versus 15 for Mahomes (not counting Wilson & Rodgers). But still, I don't think that anyone doubts that Mahomes is the best QB in the league right now.

If we could predict the future with 100% accuracy, all the decisions would be easy. With what we know today and the uncertainty of how Rice will handle the off-field distractions (not to mention any potential punishment), I think Brown is the better and safer choice. I could certainly be wrong and Rice could build on his promising rookie year or Worthy could turn out to be a dominant rookie or Toney could suddenly figure it out..... I just happen to think that all of those scenarios are less likely than Brown being the alpha WR for KC this year.

To answer the OP question, I think Brown is the KC WR to own. I like that he is playing on a one year prove-it contract in the best situation he has ever been in. I just don't trust Rice to keep his nose clean and even if he does, I expect some regression and a bit of a sophomore slump. By the end of the season, Worthy may be the man but I don't think he will produce consistently this year.

I think the point is that precedent in the NFL means nothing. Goodell could turn on a dime and hand down a suspension before there is any legal determination or he could give a slap on the wrist even if there is a conviction. Plus there is the fact that stupid people usually can't stop themselves from continuing to do stupid things. It is probably foolish to not incorporate those uncertainties/risks into any FF value/ranking you make for Rice, or any other KC WRs.