Showboat

Something doesn't make sense here. If 3rd round feels right for Kyren, that is no better than a top 15 RB, not a top 5 RB.

A decent list - yeah, tough to rank Jacobs as a top 5. Gibbs is someone I don't think will improve much on last season's numbers, so I see him closer to 10 than 5. Monty is still around and the Lions coaching staff seems determined to get him plenty of value touches (which kind of limits Gibbs' upside). When Gibbs was unleashed in the middle of last season, I think it caught some teams off-guard. With a more tape, I expect D's to be a bit better prepared for him so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a sophomore slump.

No doubt, it's more of a gut feeling on my part. IMO bold predictions should be based on kernels of truth and plausibility - just trying to lay out what I think those are. I'm sure many will continue to take Lamb as #1 or #2 WR - I just don't see it as a sure-fire slam dunk. As noted, the Cowboys have roughly stayed the same - I just don't see any areas where they really upgraded. When much of the rest of the league is improving and you staying the same, I see that as falling behind

Yes, but what will he do this season? In the financial world they use the axiom that past performance is no guarantee of future results. I think the Cowboys took a couple of steps backwards compared to the rest of the league and they will not be very good. Throw in a probable holdout and any buyer taking Lamb as the first or second WR off the board should beware. The best-case scenario may be that he doesn't get an extension and is playing for a next contract (but that might mean he holds out into the regular season). Any holdout is problematic as those guys seem to often have nagging injuries throughout the season (and if he gets an extension worked out prior to the season, his motivation might be low once he realizes that the Cowboys stink). My bold prediction is that he falls out of the top 10.

Hmmm. No chatter about CeeDee Lamb. Reports are that he definitely won't participate in training camp without a new contract. I think the Cowboys are a hot mess and even if they manage to work out a deal, I think he will disappoint anyone expecting top 5 WR numbers (not to mention #1).

I said easily a first rounder - I think we agree. I was just trying to answer your question about why people might be concerned with Hall.

The potential issues I see with Hall are associated with Rodgers - he's old (does he still have it or is it his time to fall off the cliff), if he does still have it, he has the tendency to throw those 1-yd TD passes (that can cap the ff value for the lead back). Still, easily a first rounder.

If BB was still around, I'd be more concerned about Gibson limiting Stevenson's numbers. I get the sense that Mayo would prefer a workhorse featured back - I suspect Stevenson will get all the work he can handle with his upside limited by an offense that does not appear to be that great on paper. Of course, if Maye exceeds expectations there is the potential for massive value at his current ADP.

I think you are mis-reading the chart for playoff wins - the number applies to each QB so that would be 36 combined wins versus 15 for Mahomes (not counting Wilson & Rodgers). But still, I don't think that anyone doubts that Mahomes is the best QB in the league right now.

If we could predict the future with 100% accuracy, all the decisions would be easy. With what we know today and the uncertainty of how Rice will handle the off-field distractions (not to mention any potential punishment), I think Brown is the better and safer choice. I could certainly be wrong and Rice could build on his promising rookie year or Worthy could turn out to be a dominant rookie or Toney could suddenly figure it out..... I just happen to think that all of those scenarios are less likely than Brown being the alpha WR for KC this year.

To answer the OP question, I think Brown is the KC WR to own. I like that he is playing on a one year prove-it contract in the best situation he has ever been in. I just don't trust Rice to keep his nose clean and even if he does, I expect some regression and a bit of a sophomore slump. By the end of the season, Worthy may be the man but I don't think he will produce consistently this year.

I think the point is that precedent in the NFL means nothing. Goodell could turn on a dime and hand down a suspension before there is any legal determination or he could give a slap on the wrist even if there is a conviction. Plus there is the fact that stupid people usually can't stop themselves from continuing to do stupid things. It is probably foolish to not incorporate those uncertainties/risks into any FF value/ranking you make for Rice, or any other KC WRs.

Who knows, but it is a risk because the NFL has no consistency in penalty enforcement. Big Ben got suspended even though charges were eventually dropped and Brady got suspended where the threshold certainly was not "beyond a reasonable doubt".

If it becomes clear that forcing a return results in better average field position, I think teams will quickly concede the touchback to the 30 yard line. Teams that master kick-off coverage won't be giving up big returns. Either way, I don't think there will be any consistent FF benefit for potential returners.

Most teams look pretty good on paper post-draft and cases can be made that they won the draft. It means nothing as the ultimate league winners will be determined not by projections, but by who under-performs, over-performs, falls of the cliff, gets injured, etc.

I believe a lot of that was due to being injured last year and I don't think he ever got right. They are still paying him a lot of money for an RB. If he makes it out of training camp, I expect he will be used (if for no other reason, to try to justify what they are paying him), and most likely as a goaline specialist which (along with the presence of Hill) will limit the upside of both Kamara and Miller. I stand by my original assessment that it is a situation to avoid.

Well, isn't J. Williams still there, too, to potentially vulture goal line carries? I think I'd avoid the Saints RBs.

My not-so-bold prediction is that Russ will be benched before the season ends and I'd bet the under on 35 TDs (if I was a gambler). Carroll worked some magic with a younger Russ - I don't think those days are ever coming back.

I actually like Fumbleweed's squad - needs some RB depth to finish out, but if Henry has another year left, that team is golden.

I suspect Jerry will pay him before the season starts. If not, will there be some kind of hold-out (or hold-in)? That could ultimately impact performance/conditioning too. My CeeDee skepticism is more of a gut feeling rather than based on logic.

CeeDee and the Cowboys in general kind of scare me. If he is going to be the first WR off the board he won't be on my team. Yeah, the numbers suggest he is a lock for top 5, but I think my bold prediction (we don't have that thread yet, do we?) is that he won't finish in the top 10.

If not a break-out candidate, maybe he is a regression candidate.

It also means means that the people who are owed money get screwed over (and if people invested in/extended credit to AB, maybe that's well deserved). The person declaring bankruptcy rarely suffers that much (AB may have to trade in his Lamborghini for a Chevy SUV).

The irony is that bankruptcy is only for the wealthy. I have no sympathy for AB. The truly poor that literally have no money can't afford bankruptcy.

Doesn't change a thing. I'm still never benching Stephen Davis.