TBayXXXVII

This guy still doesn't realize that he's the problem.

I think Jerry Jeudy is and will always be what Jerry Jeudy has been. Big games, no games. I don't this or any one other game changes that. I don't think it's game/team/QB dependent, I just think Jeudy takes plays and yes, even games, off. He's always on my DND list. I won't even draft him as a WR5. I think that's the case, but I'm thinking it varies based on the caliber of the player.

LOL, GC left still doesn't realize they are actually the problem.

Irony at its best.

What, they couldn't have shot him in the leg???!!!!???!!! Flipping ICE agents... they act as judge, jury, and executioner!!!!

I didn't watch the game, as the Bucs were on at the same time, so I had no frame of reference. My initial thought was to say, "Isn't this Jerry Jeudy every week/year?", but I figured I'd check it out. Looks like in the first half, the Brown only had the ball 3 times and one of them was a 3 and out that lasted 58 seconds. Anyway, on the first drive, the TD drive, he was targeted twice and both times a pass interference penalty on third down that kept the drive going. The 3-play drive he wasn't targeted. On the final drive of the half, he had 1 target. So yeah, I understand your point. On the first and third drives, they had 27 plays and he was targeted only 3 times. I do understand the lack of production due to the penalties, but still, only 3 targets? Of those 27 plays, there were 19 passes. This is the target share of those pass attempts (note, it totals 18. pro-football-reference.com has 1 pass with no target. My guess is a throw away [it was the last play before the FG attempt]). Player Tgt Harold Fannin 5 David Njoku 4 Jerry Jeudy 3* Cedric Tillman 3 Dylan Sampson 2 Isaiah Bond 1 * 15.8% target share In the second half, Flacco had 31 pass attempts, here's that target share: Player Tgt Harold Fannin 7 Jerry Jeudy 7 Dylan Sampson 6 Cedric Tillman 5 David Njoku 3 Jerome Ford 2 Jamari Thrash 1 So, while the stat sheet shows 8 targets, there was really 10. Still though, to your point, most of the work was done in the 2nd half (5 of the 7 in Q4). In the end, while Flacco had 45 attempts, he threw the 47 times... of which, 10 went Jeudy's way, so 21.3%. For reference, Joe Burrow had 652 pass attempts last year, of which, 175 went to Ja'Marr chase (DPI's unknown), which is 26.8%. The Lions had 551 pass attempts, 141 went to St. Brown, so 25.6%. I think the data supports your claim. If the Browns threw the ball 47 times, you'd think Jeudy would've gotten at least 2 more targets and possibly he'd have been more involved throughout, not just mainly the fourth quarter. One caveat though, Jerry Jeudy is an enigma. I don't know how much of this is his fault. He's invisible sometimes, by his own accord.

It's not only him. Politicians and media, still echo that. Despite that, they don't think they're the problem.

This guy.

Which is why I say political violence is here to stay. There will be a breaking point... I just don't know where, when, or how it will manifest, but it will. I just hope it's not as bad as I think it may be. Your second to last sentence is at the crux of the matter. Democrats NEVER want to discuss the root of problems because they are the root almost every time. Even you, at the individual level can't even acknowledge that the liberal elites are the root of the problem. If you don't make them accountable, why will they?

Political violence will never go away until we hit a breaking point. No, I don't know what that breaking point will be and what the outcome will bring, but it's probably going to happen. Why? Because liberals view EVERY conservative ideology as "Hate". It started with Obama where any time a Republican disagreed with him, it was because that person was racist. Had nothing to do with the subject, just that, the Obama agenda was 100% correct and there was no "other side", so because that is the case, to disagree with him was purely because that person was racist. That position won them the election 2008 and re-election in 2012, so that mindset is here to stay. We know it's here because it didn't work out in 2016 (because no one actually liked Hillary), but it did in 2020. It didn't work in 2024 (because no one actually liked Harris). We all know that this approach works because Trump would never have won in 2016 or 2024 had the Democrats put forward someone who wasn't worse than Trump. So, the Democrat battle plan to always claim Republican agenda's as "Hate", is here to stay. I mean, it's still going on today, is it not? People say "It's both sides that are guilty". To an extent, this is true. But a more accurate portrayal is "Actionary : Re-Actionary". Democrats did it, it worked... Republicans had to respond in kind, because that's the message the country was buying. So, because the Democrat platform of "Hate" is here to stay, so is Political Violence. The reason that is here to stay is because the entire foundation of the Democrat party, is solely based on targeting "Victimhood". The only way for the Democrat elites to stay in power, is to make sure there are always victims. It's why I say they're the worst political organization to ever exist on this planet. They are worst scumbags, ever. They create victims be conjuring up some kind of problem, that isn't one, say those people are victims, and then blame Republicans. The trans movement and illegal immigrants are the two most current. Simply, your party is the problem. You will say it's both, again, there's truth in that, but as I said "Actionary : Re-Actionary" is a better descripter. If Democrats stop saying that every conservative talking point is "Hate", then division and (as a result), "Political Violence", is here to stay. What you said: "Nor am I going to engage in whataboutisms though I could..." What you meant: "I am a hypocrite and don't like being called out on it, so I'm going to ignore your statements". It's here to stay because as your "Second" point states, you don't realize you are, in fact, the problem. What's the over/under number on days when someone on the left says that Trump is "literally Hitler"?

Always nice to get a debut for a good team against a crap team, eh? One day, I hope the Pirates give that opportunity to a youngster... instead of it being the other way around. Skenes got his debut against the 23-17 Cubs... his second start was @ Wrigley. LOL

I don't know that he is "better", even though the numbers can show that. Like you, I think Johnston is a WR3/Flex play, but I think he'll be volatile. One week 25, the next 9. The next week 15, then next 7. Over 4 weeks, he's at about 56 points and you look and say, "huh, 14 fpg... not bad for WR 30". The thing is, 2 of those were pretty bad. You may not be happy with the 9 or 7 point week. Keenan Allen, I think will be a guy that gets 11, 12, 10, 13, 10, 12, etc. It's a matter of... do you want consistency or ceiling (with the risk)? My problem when I do projections like this, is that I usually give too much credit to health and I end up with 20 guys who are WR1's, 20 who are 2's, and 20 who are 3's. LOL I just pick guys based on ADP and trust that they'd hit that projection.

I don't think they will be Tampa pass heavy, but in relation to targets, I think they will. Tampa, legitimately had 8 targets... Evans, Godwin, Brown, Gronk, Howard, Otton, Fournette, and Jone. The Chargers have 6 with only McConkey, Allen, Johnson, Dissly, Conklin, and Hampton, so they don't think the volume to yield the same results. Here, I'll quantify my point: Last year, LA Chargers target share... Ladd McConkey 22.81% Quentin Johnston 18.53% Josh Palmer 13.24% Will Dissly 13.03% J.K. Dobbins 7.74% Stone Smartt 3.87% Derius Davis 3.46% Simi Fehoko 3.26% Hayden Hurst 2.65% Jalen Reagor 2.44% DJ Chark 2.04% Kimani Vidal 1.83% Tucker Fisk 1.63% Gus Edwards 1.02% Scott Matlock 1.02% Eric Tomlinson 0.81% Hassan Haskins 0.61% Of this group, 3 of the top 6 are gone and replaced with Keenan Allen, Tyler Conklin, Omarion Hampton are the additions. We're looking about about 25% of the target share is getting redistributed. I also think that McConkey will see a drop. With that, I can see Allen will likely get the bulk of that remainder and Hampton getting most of the rest. I can see it as approximately McConkey getting 23%, Allen getting 19%, Johnston with 18% and Hampton getting 8%. If everyone else replicates their prior year's share, that leave's 4% for others for miscellaneous. If we assume just 550 pass attempts for Herbert, that leaves this scenario... Player Share Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD FP FGP Ladd McConkey 23.25% 127 88 1232 14 9 265.2 15.60 Quentin Johnston 18.23% 100 68 1020 15 10 230 13.53 Keenan Allen 19.25% 105 73 803 11 7 195.3 11.49 Will Dissly 6.00% 33 22 176 8 1 45.6 2.68 Tyler Conklin 6.00% 33 22 154 7 1 43.4 2.55 Omarian Hampton 8.50% 46 30 195 6.5 2 61.5 3.62 With similar contributions from other players, this would result in Herbert having a 4100 yard / 31 TD season. I think that's the floor because I think Herbert ends up closer to 600 attempts than 550. It's also me being conservative on target share.

To me, the Chargers are akin to the the 2021 Bucs in the sense of, people said "I'm not taking Evans, Godwin, or Brown because there are too many mouths to feed." Part of their argument was also the existence of Gronk, Otton, and OJ Howard. Tampa threw the ball 730 times that year, which is what made their argument invalid. There weren't too many mouth's to feed because there was enough to go around. Are the Chargers going to throw the ball 730 times? No, but 580 is. You know what 580 attempts averages out to ? The Chargers also don't have 3 TE's that they could target 5 to 7+ times nor 2 RB's that they could target 5+ times. They have 3 WR's and 1 RB... that's it. For the record, Herbert is averaging 629 attempts per 17-game season. That's 37 per game. My point is that I don't think Johnston is viewed by the Chargers as the 3rd option, but one of three options... like Tampa in 2021. Now, the problem in 2021 for the Bucs was that both Godwin and Brown got hurt. But, if you look at weeks 1 through 6 where Evans, Godwin, and Brown played together in 5 of them, their weekly totals were: Evans: 5.4, 24.5, 14.5, 29.3, 4.7 Godwin: 23.5, 16.2, 8.5, 14.0, 9.3 Brown: 23.7, 2.7*, 13.3, 31.4, 24.3 * Injury - left game early There were 2 WR1's in 3 of those 5 games. In another week, there were 2 WR2's. Is it going to work out every week? No, but I think the Chargers throw the ball an average of a minimum of 30 times a game. I think all 3 of their WR's can get an average of (at worst), 7 per game. Herbert completes 67% of his passes. Based on career averages, a typical game might be: Allen, 8 targets - 5.36 receptions for 65 yards and .4 TD's His average game could be 14.26 points. McConkey, 9 targets - 6 receptions for 72 yards and .5 TD's. His average game could be 16.2 points. Johnston, 7 targets - 4.69 receptions for 70 yards and .6 TD's. His average game could be 15.29 points. With that, I think McConkey will have be more consistent, Allen to have the highest floor - yet lowest ceiling, and Johnston be the most volatile. As Ray pointed out, if people are expecting WR1 numbers more often than not and some WR2's, then they are buying Fool's Gold. If you're looking for WR3/flex production with the occasional big game, then you're buying what he's likely to produce.

Like I said to Skinny_Bastard, I'm not seeing that argument.

Those are the people then, who are buying Fool's Gold. That doesn't mean, however, that Johnston himself is Fool's Gold. I think he's a solid WR3 who could put up 15 to 20 point games, but you should expect 11 to 13 the majority of the time.

This argument I don't understand. Why won't they pass that many times? Herbert has thrown at least 30 passes in 69 of his 80 career starts. In 3 of that other 11, he left the game early. He's thrown 34 or more in 53 of his 80 starts. For his career, he's averaging 37 attempts per game. Is your argument that because last year with Harbaugh, they averaged 29.6 attempts per game last year, that's the new norm?

Depends on what you mean by "Fool's Gold". I don't think anyone expects 5 for 80 and 2 every week, right? When we look at Johnston's short career, we have Y1 where he had 67 targets, 38 rec, for 431 yards with 2 TD's. We saw that production increase in Y2 up to 91, 55, 711, & 8. Is there not a reasonable chance that with a possible upgrade in the backfield that the passing game can be even bigger? So, we all know he's not going to be a WR1, right? I think the expectation by people is that he's probably a strong WR3 that could produce WR2 numbers occasionally and once in a while, have a WR1 game. Is that "Fool's Gold"? Or do you think people are going to expect WR2 production more often?

Not really. Half of the country knows that the Democrat party is the worst political organization to ever exist... the other half are split. Half agree with it, the other half are useful idiots.

LOL, he always has some issue.

I'm sure you know where I stand. lol Unless Mac Jones is named the starter, Brian Thomas is a WR2.

Yeah, cause Putin cares about that. Wait, I thought Putin and Trump were buddies. Why would he do this to his buddy?

I have a feeling that's going to be the NFL in a couple years. I think they want to push for an 18-game season.