TBayXXXVII

I don't know that he is "better", even though the numbers can show that. Like you, I think Johnston is a WR3/Flex play, but I think he'll be volatile. One week 25, the next 9. The next week 15, then next 7. Over 4 weeks, he's at about 56 points and you look and say, "huh, 14 fpg... not bad for WR 30". The thing is, 2 of those were pretty bad. You may not be happy with the 9 or 7 point week. Keenan Allen, I think will be a guy that gets 11, 12, 10, 13, 10, 12, etc. It's a matter of... do you want consistency or ceiling (with the risk)? My problem when I do projections like this, is that I usually give too much credit to health and I end up with 20 guys who are WR1's, 20 who are 2's, and 20 who are 3's. LOL I just pick guys based on ADP and trust that they'd hit that projection.

I don't think they will be Tampa pass heavy, but in relation to targets, I think they will. Tampa, legitimately had 8 targets... Evans, Godwin, Brown, Gronk, Howard, Otton, Fournette, and Jone. The Chargers have 6 with only McConkey, Allen, Johnson, Dissly, Conklin, and Hampton, so they don't think the volume to yield the same results. Here, I'll quantify my point: Last year, LA Chargers target share... Ladd McConkey 22.81% Quentin Johnston 18.53% Josh Palmer 13.24% Will Dissly 13.03% J.K. Dobbins 7.74% Stone Smartt 3.87% Derius Davis 3.46% Simi Fehoko 3.26% Hayden Hurst 2.65% Jalen Reagor 2.44% DJ Chark 2.04% Kimani Vidal 1.83% Tucker Fisk 1.63% Gus Edwards 1.02% Scott Matlock 1.02% Eric Tomlinson 0.81% Hassan Haskins 0.61% Of this group, 3 of the top 6 are gone and replaced with Keenan Allen, Tyler Conklin, Omarion Hampton are the additions. We're looking about about 25% of the target share is getting redistributed. I also think that McConkey will see a drop. With that, I can see Allen will likely get the bulk of that remainder and Hampton getting most of the rest. I can see it as approximately McConkey getting 23%, Allen getting 19%, Johnston with 18% and Hampton getting 8%. If everyone else replicates their prior year's share, that leave's 4% for others for miscellaneous. If we assume just 550 pass attempts for Herbert, that leaves this scenario... Player Share Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD FP FGP Ladd McConkey 23.25% 127 88 1232 14 9 265.2 15.60 Quentin Johnston 18.23% 100 68 1020 15 10 230 13.53 Keenan Allen 19.25% 105 73 803 11 7 195.3 11.49 Will Dissly 6.00% 33 22 176 8 1 45.6 2.68 Tyler Conklin 6.00% 33 22 154 7 1 43.4 2.55 Omarian Hampton 8.50% 46 30 195 6.5 2 61.5 3.62 With similar contributions from other players, this would result in Herbert having a 4100 yard / 31 TD season. I think that's the floor because I think Herbert ends up closer to 600 attempts than 550. It's also me being conservative on target share.

To me, the Chargers are akin to the the 2021 Bucs in the sense of, people said "I'm not taking Evans, Godwin, or Brown because there are too many mouths to feed." Part of their argument was also the existence of Gronk, Otton, and OJ Howard. Tampa threw the ball 730 times that year, which is what made their argument invalid. There weren't too many mouth's to feed because there was enough to go around. Are the Chargers going to throw the ball 730 times? No, but 580 is. You know what 580 attempts averages out to ? The Chargers also don't have 3 TE's that they could target 5 to 7+ times nor 2 RB's that they could target 5+ times. They have 3 WR's and 1 RB... that's it. For the record, Herbert is averaging 629 attempts per 17-game season. That's 37 per game. My point is that I don't think Johnston is viewed by the Chargers as the 3rd option, but one of three options... like Tampa in 2021. Now, the problem in 2021 for the Bucs was that both Godwin and Brown got hurt. But, if you look at weeks 1 through 6 where Evans, Godwin, and Brown played together in 5 of them, their weekly totals were: Evans: 5.4, 24.5, 14.5, 29.3, 4.7 Godwin: 23.5, 16.2, 8.5, 14.0, 9.3 Brown: 23.7, 2.7*, 13.3, 31.4, 24.3 * Injury - left game early There were 2 WR1's in 3 of those 5 games. In another week, there were 2 WR2's. Is it going to work out every week? No, but I think the Chargers throw the ball an average of a minimum of 30 times a game. I think all 3 of their WR's can get an average of (at worst), 7 per game. Herbert completes 67% of his passes. Based on career averages, a typical game might be: Allen, 8 targets - 5.36 receptions for 65 yards and .4 TD's His average game could be 14.26 points. McConkey, 9 targets - 6 receptions for 72 yards and .5 TD's. His average game could be 16.2 points. Johnston, 7 targets - 4.69 receptions for 70 yards and .6 TD's. His average game could be 15.29 points. With that, I think McConkey will have be more consistent, Allen to have the highest floor - yet lowest ceiling, and Johnston be the most volatile. As Ray pointed out, if people are expecting WR1 numbers more often than not and some WR2's, then they are buying Fool's Gold. If you're looking for WR3/flex production with the occasional big game, then you're buying what he's likely to produce.

Like I said to Skinny_Bastard, I'm not seeing that argument.

Those are the people then, who are buying Fool's Gold. That doesn't mean, however, that Johnston himself is Fool's Gold. I think he's a solid WR3 who could put up 15 to 20 point games, but you should expect 11 to 13 the majority of the time.

This argument I don't understand. Why won't they pass that many times? Herbert has thrown at least 30 passes in 69 of his 80 career starts. In 3 of that other 11, he left the game early. He's thrown 34 or more in 53 of his 80 starts. For his career, he's averaging 37 attempts per game. Is your argument that because last year with Harbaugh, they averaged 29.6 attempts per game last year, that's the new norm?

Depends on what you mean by "Fool's Gold". I don't think anyone expects 5 for 80 and 2 every week, right? When we look at Johnston's short career, we have Y1 where he had 67 targets, 38 rec, for 431 yards with 2 TD's. We saw that production increase in Y2 up to 91, 55, 711, & 8. Is there not a reasonable chance that with a possible upgrade in the backfield that the passing game can be even bigger? So, we all know he's not going to be a WR1, right? I think the expectation by people is that he's probably a strong WR3 that could produce WR2 numbers occasionally and once in a while, have a WR1 game. Is that "Fool's Gold"? Or do you think people are going to expect WR2 production more often?

Not really. Half of the country knows that the Democrat party is the worst political organization to ever exist... the other half are split. Half agree with it, the other half are useful idiots.

LOL, he always has some issue.

I'm sure you know where I stand. lol Unless Mac Jones is named the starter, Brian Thomas is a WR2.

Yeah, cause Putin cares about that. Wait, I thought Putin and Trump were buddies. Why would he do this to his buddy?

I have a feeling that's going to be the NFL in a couple years. I think they want to push for an 18-game season.

Yeah, Lawrence isn't good. That whole offense went from a target to DND for me. The only Jag I drafted this year was the kicker. How does a guy get 8(?), targets in a game and come away with 1 catch for 10 yards against a below average defense? Personally, I thought Carolina was going to win. I think they're going to be better than last year, but like 20+ other teams in Week 1, they played like crap. We'll see though.

Yeah, he'd have just invaded them like he did with Ukraine.

What, he didn't even "Biden" and say "Don't!"?

I went with, and sticking with, Goedert... until he gets hurt. So, about 3 or 4 more weeks.

Correct. Changes nothing I said in my post. Do you think Jackson is throwing 40+ TD again or do you think it's an outlier? Do you think Jackson throws for 4000+ yards again or do you think it's an outlier? Do you think Jackson throws 475 passes again or do you think it's an outlier? All of those things matter because the RB's, WR's, and TE's are directly impacted by that. Let's take Jackson's average starts and project that to a 17-game season... that would bring us to him having a 464 attempt season where he throws for 3600 yards and 30 TD's. You still think Andrews gets 11 TD's, 55 catches, 673 yards? I don't. Let's say Jackson has a season that is inline with just the last 3 years. The attempts and yards would be similar, but an 8 TD drop bringing him to 33 TD's. Do you think Andrews would replicates last years numbers? I don't. Also, there's been a steady decline in Andrews' playing time and increase in Likely's + Andrews - 83%, 70%, 61% + Likely... 40%, 44%, 60%.

It was a racial hate crime. I thought we were supposed to be upset by that?

You're sure it was a "white" "guy"? The only thing I found online about this was a CBS article and they don't mention the suspects race at all. Not even a picture. They do say that that "The LAPD initially reported that the suspect was a woman, but later updated that the person was actually a man." Is that because maybe the suspect may or may not actually be a man?

Kamala Harris. I mean, she used to be Asian, right?

So true. I have no problem with people starting Andrews every week and hoping he gets a TD, I just think that's being overly optimistic. When Likely gets in there and, assuming he's healthy, I think their production flips (from last year). I think Likely is the guy that gets double digit TD's and Andrews is getting 5 or 6. I also think his target share drops a bit. I don't think Jackson throws the ball more that 475 times this year. Assuming health across the board, I think Flowers is going to get about 25% of them (like last year), let's call it 120. I expect Bateman is going to be around 80 and D-Hop with at least 50. Likely will probably get about 70 or 80, like Bateman. Then you got Hill and the RB's that are good for at least 60 and that gets to around 380 (give or take), leaving us with about 100 targets for Andrews and every other player not mentioned. So, I don't see Andrews getting around 70 targets, I think 50 is more reasonable. I also don't see Jackson throwing for 41 TD's again... 30 (or so), seems more realistic. In a ideal scenario where everyone is healthy and the Ravens win about 13 games like expected, I see Andrews' final numbers to be around... 55 targets, 42 receptions, 450 yards and 5 TD's. That'll put him around 7 points per week. If you're ok with about 2.5 receptions for around 26.5 yards every week, then have at it. To be fair, he did only get 1 catch for 5 yards Sunday night, so this week he could get 4 for 45 to even it out. So there is that. I wouldn't have a problem with 8.5 from a TE... and it might be a week he gets a TD, so boom, 14+ points.

I'm surprised he went undrafted. I mean, even in my 8-team office league, he was drafted in the last round.

Probably homer Chief's fans and then Dolphin's fans. All like, 1 of them.