kcBlitzkrieg

I see Pickens' TD total closer to the 8-10 range for this season. His ADP is pretty volatile from what I've recently looked at. ESPN is closer to a 5th rd pick than a 3rd. In a setup like that then you should have no issue getting DK and George. Pickens is getting more love than DK due to his "new situation" when DK has just as good, perhaps better, "new situation". I like both to have their best pro seasons to date (DK equal to), question is where can you draft each for best value. 3rd rd between the two and I'm taking DK first. A RB/RB start that follows up with a DK/Pickens in 3/4 could be pretty solid....or something like a ASB/Etienne/DK/Pickens WR heavy start for those 3 WR starting lineups looks nice too.

Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke weren't exactly lighting the world on fire either.... Pickens is going about 1.5 rounds after DK in the range of Tee, Cooper, Keenan slot.... I like Pickens upside over those guys but definitely NOT over DK. I have Pickens on my dynasty squad as my WR3 and/or FLX weekly starter and feel just fine about it. I would be nervous is Pickens was my WR2 in redraft no doubt. The Steelers keep getting tossed into the Aiyuk trade rumor spots and if that were to happen I would be more nervous.

In 2019 and 2020 AJ Brown put up the following stats: 52 / 1051 / 8 TD on 84 targets (rookie year) 70 / 1075 / 11 on 106 targets Arthur Smith was his OC those 2 years. I think Pickens will be just fine. I like DK as my WR1 I can get in the 3rd round.... I love DK as my WR2 I can get in the 3rd round to pair with a Chase/Amon Ra/AJB type. Their new OC Grubb is big upgrade over Waldron. Geno's career bounced back with Canales' west coast system in 2022....then we saw how 2023 worked out without Canales. Sam Howell fits the new Offense better than Geno....

Javonte isn't getting cut.

"I would lower my expectations for: Justin Jefferson: With their QB situation, I don't think their inclination would be to throw the ball enough to get Jefferson double digit targets per game, like the prior 2 seasons... plus, during his absence, Addison performed at a level to where he's going to command targets. On top of that, they brought in Tonyan to be an option until (if), Hockenson gets back. Not sure what Hock will bring, but assuming he comes back, it could be around fantasy playoff time. I think he's a top 7 guy, but unlikely to be top 3... a shot at top 5." 10, 10, 10, 14. Jefferson's targets post injury comeback with Nick Mullens as QB. KOC is still the head coach. This is still the Cooper Kupp X role in a Shannahan / McVay offense. They move him all over the field. They just paid him over $100 mill guaranteed. Why would "their inclination" be "not to throw him the ball 10 plus times a game" ?? Robert Tonyan ?? Why is this name even mentioned in a breakdown of why or why not JJ will get 10 plus targets a game?? When was the last time, if ever, the name "Robert Tonyan" was relevant in a FF discussion.... If he plays a healthy 15-17 games he will have 1500 yards receiving. Pencil him in for 6-8 tuddies and he's the 4/5th overall WR.

Puka averaged 8 ff points more per game playing Kupp's role in McVay's offense. That is 15 ppg with Kupp vs. 23 ppg without....Good for that 12th to 15th slot in overall WRs ppg in ppr. Unless you know Kupp is going to miss time due to injury this year, Puka is overvalued at #7 overall WR. His floor is great, the highest WR2 out there. No Kupp and he will put up top 3 wr numbers. Someone going WR/WR to start could pair with someone like Wilson and should feel good.

Tua played all 17 games last year. He has reportedly slimmed down 25 pounds for this season to be "more mobile". This is contrary to the previous offseason when he "bulked up" to help avoid injuries. We will have to wait and see. Also....There are worse backup QB's to be throwing Tyreek the ball than Mike White.

He was 2 yards per reception below his career average last year at 10. Never had a previous season less than 12 ypr. Targets were lowest of Mahomes era. TDs tied for 2nd lowest of career. We all know Mahomes was forced into the dink and dunk style passing attack without any legitimate deep threats last season. Kelce was the only real offense before you saw Rashee step into his breakout role last year. I could see Kelce getting a TD bump and his ypr going back towards his career average of 12 due to the additions of Brown and Worthy. They had no threat of this factor with MVS and Mecole. I think that changes this year, opening up the underneath stuff for Kelce and Rice. Kelce targets will be even or regress slightly. Last year he was tied for 1st in fppg, finished 3rd missing 2 games. I don't see him falling off out of top 5 though....Negative age regression with potential for positive game flow on the reverse side leads to a top 5 fantasy finish. But as you said, just not the hands down overall TE1.

Accurate assessment

Why do we like Mixon again ? ADP like or I want him on multiple squads like ? What do we expect the split to look like with him and Pierce? Texans run zone, Mixon ran zone in Cincy since '21 so that's a plus. He's 27 years old, not too old for nfl RB.

Fair.... But you'll be missing out on some tremendous value on Rashee and to a lesser value, Hollywood.

The same improvement reasoning for Love can be said for Brock, who basically finished tied with Love last season in ppg and total scoring. As of now, my first option will be Kyler in 7th, Dak/Brock then Love after than in the 8/9 area. Waiting till 10th round though you are looking at Goff, Tua, Herbert types. I had Tua on a couple teams last year as my QB taken in DD rounds and he did me well. This year I am leaning more towards Goff as my DD round qb target. I'm not sold yet on Roman as OC for Herbert with the weapons, or lack of, that he has. I know Harbaughs QB track record but idk yet, need to see how camp goes before possibly moving him up. I could see myself doing a late round combo too, Goff/Herbert b2b rds 9-11. Or a Goff pairing with Lawrence or Stafford type of deal. P.S. Mahomes had his worst statistical fantasy season career last year. We are all familiar with the reasons why so no need to rehash. Surprisingly though, it was his first season without a rushing TD. He's had at least 2 every starting season. I'd expect that to come back to the mean this year. I would never take him at his price in a non-superflex league, but dare I say, expect a major "bounce back" season from Patty. Offense is going to open back up this year, much less dink & dunk stuff. Offensive roster is much better, defense will still be good but harder schedule wise so more points needed for offense. 350 fantasy points minimum, top 2-3 in QB scoring.

Yes. Because he threw 30+ Tuddies for 2nd most in the League. He will likely be a better NFL quarterback this season yes. Will that translate into a higher fantasy finish than QB5 ?? Perhaps, but it won't be because he magically turns into Lamar or Jalen.

He had 2.8 points per game in rushing last season. 240 some yards. 4 TDs. Just behind Bryce Young and Sam Howell. I'm much more interested in Love due to the fact that he had the 3rd highest RZ passing attempts in the league, which led to him throwing the 2nd most TDs in the league. I'm in rounds 8-10 but would rather grab Kyler before Love. Dak and Brock are slightly ahead of Love as well for me.

I saw a stat the other day on Mattison that was something like 9 carries within the 5 yard line for -7 yards rushing. Puke.

hence, the "fun fact" label.

Speaking of Zamir.... fun fact about Raidahs rookie RB Laube. His receiving stat line from ONE game last year..... 12 / 295 / 2 tds

With Hollywood injury perhaps or 8 game suspension for Rice..... otherwise, Worthy's season will be no better than a Mecole Hardman like stat line.

Hollywood has had a minimum of 100 targets every season he's played except his rookie year with Ravens. Rashee barely broke 100 targets this past rookie season for him. Hollywood is playing the MVS role in this offense. MVS got a little over 80 targets his best season with Mahomes, with an exact 50% catch on target rate. Only scored 3 TDs with Patrick in those 2 seasons. Brown's career catch rate is a little better than 60% so this comes down to how many targets one expects Brown to get. Is he MVS ? No, he is a faster more elusive version with a little better hands and explosion. Mahomes will be the best QB the guy has every played with. He will score TDs with Patrick. Hollywood's career high is 8 TDs. He should get to that number. He will also be a guy who gets about 100 targets, catches 65-75 balls for maybe 1000 yards. IF Rashee gets suspended then obviously Brown will be of much greater value ADP wise. He would be in store for a career year if Rice were to get 6 games or more. IF Rashee is not suspended then Rice will be the better value ADP wise for sure as he will start off just like he left off last season....a very close #2, or about even, target monster for Sir Patrick.

Yep

Little talent gap there between Breece and Kyren.... one is a potential overall RB1 and the other is far from it....

Not discounting this at all, hence the possibility of suspension is already priced into the ADP. I guess then I am a proponent of the value you are getting by the "implied odds" the market has set for suspension. My perceived value is based on facts at hand, not "guess work" on what some people "think Goodell will do". “Well, first, we allowed the legal process to move through,” Goodell said during his opening interview Thursday with ESPN’s Mike Greenberg at the first round of the draft. “We obviously are following it closely, and as soon as they’re done with the process, we will be engaged and be prepared to look at that under all of our personal contact policies.” -Goodell, April 26th 2024

Mostert at 31 years of age. 2nd oldest RB ever to score over 20 TDs. 1st oldest? Riggins 1983 at 34 years of age. Riggins 1984 = only 14 TDs. Mostert 2024 = ??

Yes. We know. Again, there is no recent precedent for Goodell to suspend BEFORE the courts make any determination. I'm waiting for a recent relevant example showing otherwise. Not saying there isn't, but no one has provided one yet.....