GobbleDog

4 out of 10. Back to the drawing board.

After some research... Breshard Smith (just turned 22) was a Miami Hurricanes Wr for three years with uninspiring stats. Transferred to SMU his senior year and switched to Rb. Did well finishing with 1,332 yds (5.7 ypc), 14 rushing Tds, 39 rec, and 4 rec Tds. SMU played several bad teams, but some of his big games were against decent competition (Clemson, Pittsburgh, FSU, TCU). He's not big (194 lbs) which makes his 235 carries last year impressive. But he runs a 4.39 - third fastest among Rbs at the combine. Didn't test well in broad jump or vertical, and graded a RAS score of 7.02. His lack of athleticism likely attributed to falling the draft. Though don't take too much stock in that ... last year Bucky Irving had the worst combine possible with a pathetic RAS score of 2.3. Scouts joked "Bucky couldn't jump over a two dollar bill." But I digress. So we've got a Wr turned Rb who's small, but fast. Won't be seeing goal lines, short-yardage, or high volume carries... but word is he could be the Chiefs next Jerick McKinnon - a passing catching specialist. Probably needs to bulk up if he's to survive, or be a decent pass-blocker. Considering everything, doubtful he has a major impact in fantasy next year.

I'm with you. This moral police game after their career is over is ridiculous. "Well his stats are HOF worthy, but he was involved in those DUI car crashes. On the flip side, nobody died and he does seem really sorry... Ok, he's in!" Give me a break. Rose should be in. As for juicers - they wouldn't be HOF worthy without the juice. So no, they don't get in.

Kansas City Chiefs: 1) Pacheco - returned from a broken leg mid-season and didn't look great (3.7 ypc). Probably why he was sparingly used in the playoffs. Chiefs didn't offer an extension so now in the final year of his (7th rd) rookie deal which means peanuts... $1.1 mil. Very motivated to prove his worth for next year's contract with Chiefs or whoever. 2) Hunt - 200 carries and a sad 3.6 ypc. The Chiefs resigned him to a 1-year deal ($1.5 mil). Was good at short-yardage/goal lines finishing with 7 Tds. Turns 30 yo in a couple months. 3) Mitchell - free-agent from Niners were he was often injured, but decent while healthy. Chiefs gave him a 1-year $2.5 mil deal. 4) Smith - who? Chiefs 7th rd draft pick Brashard Smith. Supposedly a speedster and probably relegated to special teams... but who knows. Everyone and their uncle predicted the Chiefs were gonna invest a high draft pick in Rb this year. Didn't happen so does that show confidence in Pacheco returning to '23 form? Do they expect Mitchell to stay healthy and perhaps take over the lead? Will Hunt continue to vulture short Tds? Pacheco has been going first in mocks - late 8th rd. Good value if he does return to old form - and the Chiefs actually give him decent volume. But in that murky mess, hard to predict anything. Anyone care to venture a guess?

Jaguars Rb riddle - gold to be mined, but I can't decipher the code. Jags have a new coach - Liam Coen, former Bucs o-coordinator. Prior regime picked up Etienne's 5th year option, but the new coach reportedly isn't thrilled with the inefficient running. Tank is still there, but hasn't impressed. Jags drafted two more Rbs this year... a 4th on Bhayshul Tuten (speedster Rb with size) and a 7th on LeQuint Allen (receiving specialist/pass blocker). All have low adp's, so there's value somewhere... just not sure where. We'll see where things stand in the coming months. Interestingly Coen was at the Bucs when they drafted Bucky Irving in the 4th. Perhaps the coach sees Tuten as his next Irving.?.

(Rb 33) Kaleb Johnson - Steeler's 3rd round pick. 6'0" 225 lb bruising Rb who's scouting report reads: "Doesn’t go down on first contact. Light in tight quarters on inside-zone concepts. On outside-zone runs, displays patience picking the line and waiting for opportunity. These runs he looks like Le’Veon Bell … waiting, waiting, waiting, and then exploding up-field. Johnson baits second-level defenders, forcing them to declare first, sucking them into a muck of bodies as he escapes into space. Johnson will appeal to zone-run offenses looking for a bellcow." Zone-run offense - check; Coach who loves bell-cow's - check; "Runs like Lev Bell" ... perfect. Tomlin drafted Najee in '21... 307 carries his rookie year. Johnson is currently projected mid-9th rd.

I doubt any contending team would've taken him.

11 seasons with a win-loss record ... 77-92 Playoff record ... 0-1 Career Qb rating ... 92.8 meh

Carr will forever be remembered as ... meh. Perhaps the greatest meh of all-time. The Saints were already in for a long crappy season, but it just got worse. Qb options... Shough, Rattler, Haener Wouldn't be surprising if all of them get a few starts this season.

(Rb 23) Pollard - missed a game and finished Rb 21. 260 carries (4.2 ypc) and 41 receptions. That volume usually results in a top 15+ finish, but only 6 total Tds held him back - though entire team only had 8. Problem was the offense was terrible, defense abysmal (allowed most points), and the o-line ranked near the bottom. Game script wasn't good for Pollard as they were usually losing by half time and defenses had nothing fear from the passing game. Impressive Pollard even managed 4.2 ypc in that mess. Enter Qb Cam Ward who's mobile, but not necessarily a running Qb. The Titans signed a big name o-lineman from Detroit, but he's 35 and not much else changed to fix the o-line. Spears missed 5 games last year which helped inflate Pollard's volume some, but even when healthy Spears didn't impress. Titans drafted a Rb the late 6th, but he's a short-yardage guy and at best a change of pace. Doubtful he steals much, if any, goal line work. Bottom line... Pollard's durability probably means another year of big volume which means low-floor - at worst another Rb 21 finish. But the team's sad state of affairs probably means the best one could hope for Rb 15+-. So relatively safe in that respect and reasonable for a late-6th pick.

Learned a little more about the Aaron Jones situation. The Vikes didn't just get Jordan Mason out of free-agency... they traded a 5th rd pick in '25 & 6th rd pick in '26 with the Niners, before signing him to the 2-year deal with $7 mill guaranteed and a max value of $12 mill. Aaron Jones had a good fantasy season with lots of receptions and a healthy 4.5 ypc. But inside the five yd line... 13 carries for NEGATIVE 2 yds, and just 3 Tds - awful. This is reportedly one of the big reasons the Vikes aggressively pursued Mason - he's gonna get most if not all the goal-line carries and short yardage situations. Even Jones himself recently told reporters his role is going to change yielding to Mason. He's 20 lbs heavier, a great interior runner, and after three seasons has a carrier average of 5.3 ypc. Given the situation, Jones could finish with a meager 4+- Tds this year. He'll still be the pass catcher, but he's 30 years old with a history of getting dinged up, and last year's full work load could work against him. Some speculate that as the season the progresses, it's quite possible that Jones and Mason's roles reverse and Mason becomes the lead back with Jones as the change of pace. Given all that ... Jones Rb 21 adp suddenly doesn't look so great. Food for thought.

Not "likely" - they're definitely going with JJ. But I get the sense the Vikes coach is bit of a Qb whisperer - much like Andy Reid. Doesn't seem to matter who he's got, they all succeed. Don't expect much offensive drop-off from that. Jones main issue is staying healthy, though he finally did it last year and showed he can still be very productive. Aside from health, the other concern is Jordan Mason signing - 2 years $10.5 mill. Vikes are gonna want some return on that and it probably cuts into Jones touches. Also might help keep him healthy, so perhaps a trade-off. Still Jones at Rb 21 put him around mid-6th round. A fair price in my mind.

I've been saying that about Henry the past three years, and yeah. I give up... he's inhuman. Also another Rb who benefited from a great run blocking o-line with a Yards-Before-Contact per attempt rate of 3.1, third place only to Barkley and Gibbs. From that list of top 7 ranked Rbs... I'd be most nervous about McCaffrey. Missed significant time in 3 of the last 6 years. Now entering his 10th season and about to turn 29. Mid-2nd round isn't nearly enough discount. Regardless, I won't be drafting any of them. '24 adp -vs- actual finish... the top Rbs correlated much better than the top Wrs. That almost never happens. Lighting might strike twice, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Of all the players I was wrong about last year... I was DEAD WRONG about Barkley. Metrics were on the decline, didn't expect the volume, and a bunch of other stuff that sounds ridiculous now. The one thing I ignored that everyone kept saying "yeah, but that o-line will make him great." Turns out they were right - more than they even realized. Quickly became evident - Barkley popped through the line (showed more agility/speed than I expected) and ran for first downs/Tds completely untouched. It was too easy. Most Rbs finished the season with about 2.4 Yards-Before-Contact-Per-Attempt. But Barkley... led all Rbs at 3.8. Next closest was Gibbs at 3.3. As much as I'd love to join your bandwagon and call Barkley a potential disappointment, I've lost all credibility on that subject. And considering that o-line I wouldn't dare try.

Jags let go of Wr Christian Kirk, Te Evan Engram, and now Gabe Davis. They also let go a bunch of no-names... Wr Devin Duvernay, Te Luke Farrell, Wr Tim Jones, Te Josiah Deguara, Wr Josh Reynolds. Total revamp of receiving options.

More than a couple. In '23 Hall had six games with 20+ fantasy points (ppr). Only McCaff had more. Regardless, which anchor Rb do you recommend avoiding this year? Just for discussion sake - doesn't matter to me... I'm Wr guy. 1. Bijan 2. Barkley 3. Gibbs 4. Achane 5. Jeanty 6. McCaff 7. Henry

Giants 4th rd pick... Cameron Skattebo (currently Rb 41). From what scouts say - "tough, gritty, bruiser" does sound like Alstott. Probably gets goal line and short yardage work. Gotta worry how many total carries he gets with Tracy and Singletary still in town. Might be boom or bust each week with goal line Tds.

Yes... "Sean Payton." I'm old, and it's still early in the season. Cut me some slack.

Dang... apparently so. Here's a couple articles - first about how high Redskins are about their 7th Round pick (jeesh). The other about a possible Robinson to Chicago trade. Seems strange to me. Trading a productive commodity in Robinson and banking on a 7th rounder. Guess we'll see what happens over the next few months.

I had high hopes for Pickens last year finally getting a decent Qb... but every Wr metric you can think of - he absolutely stunk. I guess he'll be better in Dallas, sure as hell can't do any worse. He's not on my fantasy radar. Ranked Wr 33.... yeah, no thanks.

2024 ADP vs actual finish, noticed something unusual - very few Rbs missed more than a handful of games to injury - sorry McCaff drafters, he was an outlier. The few early/mid Rbs who didn't live up to ADP simply under-performed for whatever reason. In year's past, it was an extreme mix of injuries and under-performance. The data usually proved why drafting Rbs early was quite risky. Not last year. Among the 15 top ranked Rbs, only 3 were total disasters (McCaff, Etienne, Pacheco) and 2 were disappointments (Hall, Taylor). The others either met or exceeded ADP. Even old-man Alvin Kamara stayed healthy until Wk 16, and still finished 7 spots higher than his ADP. More RBBC systems reducing injuries - better medicine... or just a statistical anomaly.?. Whatever the reason, 2024 was unusually good for Rbs.

1) Citizen Bull 13-1 11) Flying Mohawk 28-1 2) Neoequos 38-1 12) East Avenue 39-1 3) Final Gambit 15-1 13) Publisher 30-1 4) Rodriguez 9-1 Scratched 14) Tiztastic 20-1 5) American Promise 12-1 15) Render Judgment 16-1 6) Admire Daytona 39-1 16) Coal Battle 24-1 7) Luxor Cafe 8-1 17) Sandman 5-1 8)) Journalism 4-1 18) Sovereignty 9-1 9) Burnham Square 17-1 19) Chunk of Gold 27-1 10) Grande 18-1 Scratched 20) Owen Almighty 37-1 21) Baeza 17-1 Odds updated May 3, 2:40 pm. Post time: May 3, 6:57 pm. Gentlemen, get your dollar bills ready!

Coming around the stretch with Journalism mowing them down, I thought he had it. At least the system held up - top 2 in the major preps. Props to Sovereignty for finding speed he'd never showed before. Had the field down to him and Journalism... and chose poorly. Chalk up another top Derby finish for jockey Flavian Prat on Baeza. Dude can ride. Win Place Show 1) Sovereignty $17.96 $7.50 $5.58 2) Journalism $4.94 $3.70 3) Baeza $8.38 4) Final Gambit Exacta - $48.32 $1 Trifecta - $231.12 $1 Superfecta $1,682.27

Good luck everyone! The sun shines bright on my ole Kentucky home...

Coal might hit the board... but I'd be surprised if he won. 29 of last 33 winners had a Beyer speed of 95 or better on their resume. Coal's best is 91, but it wasn't even from his last race - only posted 88 at Arkansas. Might be partly attributed to the ridiculous early pace in that race, but still... he's gonna need to do a lot better here.