GobbleDog

It's that time of year gentlemen. Let's talk turkey! Top 10 Rb (ppr) per FantasyPros: 1) Christian McCaffery - ADP 1.01. Last year 16 games, 272 car, 1,459 yds (5.4 avg), 67 rec, 564 yds, 21 total Tds with seven 100-yd rush games. Finished #1 Rb with 24.5 pt/gm. No major coaching or personnel changes. O-line ranks 1st. Ironman past two years, but turns 28 yo soon with 1,968 career touches. At 1.01 McCaff is the ultimate boom/bust player considering age-usage-history. Some worry the Niners might reduce work for playoff push, but the same was said last year and never happened. We shall see... 2) Breece Hall - APD 1.07. Last year 17 games, 223 car, 994 yds (4.5 avg), 76 rec, 591 yds, 9 total Tds with three 100-yd rush games. Finished #2 Rb with 17.1 pt/gm. Jets drafted a 1st rd O-lineman - no major coaching change, but offense should boost with Rodgers healthy. O-line ranks 4th. Hall just turned 23 yo and enters junior season. Nothing to knock... the clear goal line back, reception guru, great o-line, no injury problems last year, and probably faces fewer stacked boxes with Rogers - the Jets are solid all around. 3) Bijan Robinson - ADP 1.08. Last year 17 games, 214 car, 976 yds (4.6 avg), 58 rec, 487 yds, 8 total Tds with two 100-yd rush games. Finished #9 Rb with 14.5 pt/gm. Falcons drafted... qb Penix (wtf) and nothing else offensively. New head coach, o-coordinator and Qb - Kurt Cousins so offense expected to improve greatly. O-line ranks 15th. Bijan is 22 yo entering softmore season. The former 8th overall NFL pick didn't quite live up to last year's lofty expectations, which was mostly blamed on coach Smith and bad qb play. Does Bijan get more goal line work over Algeir with new coaches? Probably, but nobody really knows. Still, a young talented Rb on a loaded offense. Cousins made Cook a reception king years back, so receptions should stay solid and possibly increase. Looks to be a good year. .................................................................................................. 4) Jonathan Taylor - ADP 1.12. Last year 10 games, 169 car, 741 yds (4.4 avg), 19 rec, 153 yds, 8 total Tds with only one 100-yd rush game (week 18 unfortunately). Finished #33 Rb with 15.6 pt/gm. Colts drafted o-linemen rds 3 & 4 - no major coaching change. O-line ranks 22nd. Taylor is 25 yo with 1,048 carrier touches. Now enters 5th year with a monster contract (clearly Colts believe). Missed early games last year - supposedly ankle, but more likely hold out... then missed time for thumb surgery. Hard to know how this situation plays out with qb Richardson eating goal-line work, designed runs, and the o-line not so great. Taylor used to be good for 3-4 rec per game, but that didn't pan out last year. Will Richardson dump it off ? Lot of questions here. Feels a bit risky. 5) Jahmyr Gibbs - ADP 2.01. Last year 15 games, 182 car, 945 yds (5.2 avg), 52 rec, 316 yds, 11 total Tds, with two 100-yd rush games. Finished #10 Rb with 16.1 pt/gm. Lions drafted o-lineman 4th rd and some scrub rb - no major coaching or personnel change. O-line ranks 6th. The former 12th overall NFL pick recently turned 22 yo and had a very productive rookie year. David Montgomery is still around who vultured 13 Tds last year... and shockingly had 219 carries and 1,015 yds (4.6 avg). Monty turns 27 soon, but no reason to believe Gibbs gets a considerably bigger piece of pie this year given how efficient the offense ran. Still, Gibbs seems like a relatively safe pick for another top 10 finish with the receptions, solid o-line, and overall potent offense. If Monty goes down, Gibbs becomes a monster. 6) Saquon Barkley - ADP 2.03. Last year 14 games, 247 car, 962 yds (3.9 avg), 41 rec, 280 yds, 10 total Tds, with one 100-yd rush game. Finished #13 Rb with 15.9 pt/gm. O-coordinator fired and replaced by Kellen Moore (fired from Chargers). O-line ranks 3rd in spite of Kelse retiring. Barkley is 27 yo with 1,489 career touches. Once one of the most elusive Rb's in the league - injuries, age, and usage have taken a toll as metrics have declined in recent years. There won't be much Rb competition in Philly, except for - Jaylen Hurts who cannibalizes goal line TDs. Hard to know what to expect from Barkley this year... he can catch, but the Eagles aren't known for that - last year Swift (known for receptions) had ten games with 2 or fewer catches. So, we have an aged Rb with declining metrics, Hurts taking goal lines, and probably not tons of receptions.... ADP 2.03 ??? Wow. .................................................................................................... 7) Travis Etienne Jr. - ADP 2.09. Last year 17 games, 267 car, 1,008 yds (3.8 avg), 58 rec, 476 yds, 12 total Tds, with two 100-yd rush games. Finished #3 Rb with 16.6 pt/gm. Jaguars drafted Wr Thomas Jr. with first pick - no major coaching or other personnel changes. O-line ranks 19th. The former 25th overall pick enters his junior season (25 yo) coming off a great '24 campaign. Many worried the '23 drafting of Tank Bigsby (3rd rd) would spell the end of Etienne's goal line work as he struggled with it in '22, but that didn't pan out - mainly because Bigsby kept fumbling at the season's start and coaches seemed to give up on him. Pure volume made Etienne relevant last year... but his 3.8 yd per carry was awful - Out of the top 25 Rbs, only Rachaad White was lower (3.6). Moving forward, hard to see much change unless coaches decide to give Bigsby a second chance, which they might if the inefficient running continues. Etienne doesn't seem to be a "special" Rb with elite skills - he's just-a-guy and another top 3 finish would be shocking. Top 10-ish feels about right as the receptions are the saving grace. 8)) Kyren Williams - ADP 3.04. Last year 12 games, 228 car, 1,144 yds (5.0 avg), 32 rec, 206 yds, 15 total Tds, with six 100-yd rush games. Finished #7 Rb with 21.3 pt/gm. Rams drafted rb Blake Corum in 3rd, no major coaching or other personnel changes. O-line ranks 14th. The former 5th rd pick (23 yo) enters his junior year after an amazing season. Missed four games mid-season due to high-ankle sprain, but immediately picked up where he left off. Has now missed some ota's due to a "foot issue", which doesn't sound like a big deal. So going forward, what to make of Williams? Dude was a stud last year and if he had the back-field to himself and no injury concerns, he'd probably be a top 5 pick. Prior to last year, coach McVay had historically favored multiple backs over a bell-cow usage. Williams solo work last year might be partly explained by the Rams lack of Rb talent and McVay sticking with the hot hand. Enter Blake Corum (3rd Rb taken) who was excellent at Michigan and is described as a "bowling ball Rb", thus might vulture some goal line work. Overall though, Williams' only real knock is the injury concern, which is somewhat accounted for as an early-mid 3rd rounder. 9) Rachaad White - ADP 3.10. Last year 17 games, 272 car, 990 yds (3.6 avg), 64 rec, 549 yds, 9 total Tds, with two 100-yd rush games (just barely... 100 & 102). Finished #4 Rb with 15.8 pt/gm. Bucs used a 1st rd on O-lineman, and 4th rd on rb (Bucky Irving), o-coordinator left and now replaced by Kentucky's coordinator (known for running). No other personnel changes. O-line ranks 18th. White - former 3rd round pick is 25 yo and enters his junior season after a strange season. Racked up a lot of receptions and was given 272 carries in spite of unspeakably bad efficiency - likely due to lack of rb competition. White only averaged 3.7 ypc in 2022 so his running skills are questionable at best. The Bucs clearly drafted Bucky Irving - an elusive runner, hoping to add a little more efficiency to the running game thus White's carries will almost certainly decline along with the Td total. But the receptions should remain high and is probably good for a top 15-ish finish. ............................................................................................. 10) Isiah Pacheco - ADP 4.03. Last year 14 games, 205 car, 935 yds (4.6 avg), 44 rec, 244 yds, 9 total Tds, with three 100-yd rush games. Finished #15 Rb with 15.3 pt/gm. Chiefs drafted wr 1st (Worthy) and o-lineman 2nd. No major coaching changes, but did sign wr Marquise Brown. O-line ranks 3rd. Pacheco is 25 yo and a former 7th round pick entering his junior year. He did miss two games late last year for a shoulder clean-up procedure, but came back strong and scored in 3 out of the 4 Chiefs playoff games. He's the clear lead back coming off a great season, and maintained high efficiency from the year prior (4.9 avg in '22 on 170 carries). Word is the Chiefs likely acquired wr's Brown and Worthy to try to stretch the field a bit with deep shots, which could open up some running room. Interesting stat - games where Pacheco touched the ball fewer than 15 times last year, the Chiefs record was 1-3, in all games the Chiefs won - Pacheco average 20.3 touches. Seems likely the Chiefs will want to continue feeding him the ball. Overall, an early 4th round pick seems like value.

Watch Giants Week 7 highlights.... it wouldn't matter if the Giants had Brady or Manning at their peak. That o-line played so horribly, nobody could succeed under those conditions. Heck, if anything Jone's wheels kept some plays alive. He probably won't ever be a franchise Qb and the Giants will likely move on... but until they fix the o-line, it won't change anything.

Agreed. I can pick up as many free-agents as I want for $1 a pop. If my competitor desperately needs a Qb that week... I could theoretically pick up and drop the remaining Qbs and they'd all be on waivers til the following week. Perfectly legal, but about as douchery as possible.

Get bucket - empty bucket... patch roof next day. Yeah, there isn't much you can do while the winds are pummeling. But at least try to keep water from ruining interior.

When the storm shifted south of Orlando, thought we dodged the bullet. Just rain and light gusts... til 4 am. Then the south-bound winds started pummeling. Power went out and massive gusts for two long hours. Next morning damage check - backyard tree fell crushing the fence, but luckily missed the houses. No roof damage or flooding. Spent yesterday cutting up an oak tree, cleaning up, and eventually the power came back on. We got lucky. One home in our neighborhood was less fortunate as an oak tree fell on their roof. They survived, but have to find somewhere else to live the next few months. Hurricanes are stressful. A week of apocalyptic headlines and then riding it out... relief when ya make it without major damage. But know eventually there will always be another one.

Orlando - 5:30 pm... started raining hard about 3 hours ago and hasn't let up, but not too much wind yet. Supposed to hit us about 3 am or so. Hoping it's path across Central Florida slows down the wind some. Have to admit I rarely fear hurricanes in Orlando, but this is a stronger than I'm used to. Wife, daughter and dog will be sleeping together in the only bedroom with no windows tonight, but I won't be with them. I'll be wandering the house all night checking for roof leaks. Gonna be a long miserable night listening to the wind howling so hard you can hear the house make strange creaking sounds and wonder if the roof holds on. When ya dare look outside, ya see debris flying by at 100 mph and huge oak trees bending in ways they ain't supposed to bend. Expecting to lose power around 12 am and probably out for a couple days. Got water in bathtubs in case we lose water too. Extra propane tanks to cook food next few days, cooler for food... and beer to drown my misery. Just hope by morning no oak trees fell on the house, roof still on, and fences still standing. Beyond that, I'll be ok. Pray for Gobble.

Saw the headline Doubs Suspended, but had no idea why til reading this. Assumed PED's or whatever. Never would've have guessed ... he played hooky. Gotta wonder if just comes back like nothing happened - it'll cost him a game check of $60k, media embarrassment, and he won't be cool with the GM after this - maybe not even the coach. Can't remember this happening before... suspended for playing hooky.?. Surely it has at some point (probably a non-starter), but I can't think of any.

Wee for Prez!

Months back when I was touting my support here for drafting JJ, I said I expected Darnold to play better than people were giving him credit... but I only meant competent - not MVP production. That won't last all season, but at this point he's shown what he can do on this loaded offense. I re-watched the Jets highlights on Youtube from last week's Broncos loss. Heard some say "Rodgers can't move like he used to..." Nuts to that, he moved just fine - extending plays, avoiding sacks, even running for 1st downs. Main problem I saw was the o-line couldn't stop Bronco's onslaught of blitz's, who rank #1 in blitz rate... interestingly Vikings blitz rank #2. Other problem was Rodgers doesn't seem to be on the same page with his receivers. Rodgers passing looked solid and threw with accuracy, but several times the receivers just weren't where they were supposed to be. So between the poor o-line and the incohesive passing game... I don't expect much from the Jets offense. But their defense is the tricky one. They held the Broncos to just 10 points, but that's the pathetic Broncos. Can they hold back the Vikings and Darnold who's currently on fire? Doubtful, but probably not too high-scoring being in London and Jets defense is still decent. Funny thing about the Vikings, in pre-season the fans were debating when McCarthy would likely take over with the consensus being after the Week 6 bye when their record would likely be 1-4 after the tough schedule and Darnold's poor reputation. Even the most optimistic Darnold supporters could never have guessed they'd be 4-0 at this point. Incredible story. Sam Darnold ... to hell and back.

Steelers makes sense. They have Pickens for deep, and Roman Wilson for slot.... but they need a possession Wr. Sorry Van Jefferson/Calvin Austin... yall suck and the Steelers know it. That's why they were interested in Aiyuk. They also have plenty of '25 draft picks to spare.

Harris 17 gm, 255 car, 1035 yds, 4.1 ypc, 29 rec, 8 total Tds... Rb 28, 10.7 ppg (34th) Warren 17 gm, 149 car, 784 yds, 5.3 ypc, 61 rec, 4 total Tds... Rb 20, 11.8 ppg (28th) Adp's roughly Najee Rb 25, Warren Rb 26. So, it's round 7 or 8 and ya see both available. Who ya drafting?

A 2nd rd & Wilson ... for a 31 yo Wr ? I'd be surprised if the Jets agree to that.

Surprised Adams didn't demand a trade in the off-season. He can't possibly be shocked by their 2-2 record. Some though he might demand a trade before last year. At this point in his career - it's not about money, it's about contending for a title.

I went into my draft specifically targeting Tua ... he was going 10th / 11th rounds in mocks. I gladly spent a 9th to ensure I got him. I was projecting ton of yardage and 35+ Tds this year. Obviously, my hopes were dashed. But even as bullish as I was / am about Tua... I immediately dropped him after the concussion. Four games out, at a minimum... too long to hold. I'm in a one-Qb league (12-team) and as of now... he's still available on the free-agent market. I will be looking to pick him up just before he comes back.

Facing Broncos defense. Though Denver's pass D is better than their run D so maybe Raiders run more. Broncos offense is, of course, terrible so it should be a low-scoring close game with Raiders getting plenty of possessions. Adams might be traded by then, or possibly just out for injury. Never know... game script might work out well for White - assuming he doesn't fumble again. As for Corum, it probably will require a Kyren injury because he seems to be hitting his stride. Some wondered if the Rams might go back to the rbbc system McVay historically used, but hasn't been true so far.

So frustrating - White had 17 carries... and did nothing. No Tds, no receptions - just 50 yds and a cloud of dust. Also fumbled in the 4th quarter giving the Browns a chance to come back which isn't going to make the coach want to keep feeding him. I don't know what to think anymore. He's droppable, but I'm holding. Nobody on waivers will get double-digit carries... and ya never know - maybe a mid-season miracle coming, but my Z. White optimism has officially bottomed out.

Really wanted Walker in the 4th rd, but some jerk stole him early 3rd. Lucky to avoid these missed games to injury I spose, but when he does comes back those who invested will get paid. Especially with the new o-coordinator who has Seahawks rolling. Watched some random games of Walker last year to get a sense of his running style. Good lord it's impressive. The main word - VISION. Finds holes out of nothing. And when he doesn't see what he likes up the middle.... bounces outside for a big gain. Fast too which is evident when he's beating linebackers to the edge. Stinks his season hasn't gotten off well, but the injury shouldn't hurt his running game when finally healthy (oblique I think it is).

We rarely get much in Orlando, especially with this one since it headed up the west coast. Been raining all day and there's occasional huge gusts of wind, but meh... so long as the big oak trees don't fall and power stays on... we cool. It's the coastal communities that get their asses handed to them. Somebody posted this website here years back.... I bookmarked it because it's so damn cool. Especially when hurricanes are brewing. Highly recommend. https://www.windy.com/?29.119,-83.013,7

Actually there's a bye-week in there, but whatever... obviously he won't finish at the insane 45 Tds currently on pace for, but low- mid-30's probably. Regardless, the most important thing - in three games he's shown he can be a fully competent NFL qb. That's all Jefferson needs to succeed.

Nearly all of those games were from Darnold's stint with the Jets and Panthers. I wouldn't put much stock in that given those deplorable situations. No Qb would've succeeded, especially at Darnold's young age with the Adam Gase led talent-less Jets. Darnold is on pace for 45 Tds... probably won't finish with that many, but your projection of 20 ??? He should easily hit that mark by Week 10.

Vikings defense is probably better than some thought... but regression is a coming. Vikings over/under wins was 6.5 for a reason.

Vikings have been leading after the 1st quarter in every game this year. The game was effectively over by 4th quarter in two of those with Vikings leading by so much. Those targets will increase once they get into some shootouts.

Three weeks in.... which Rb has the most Yards Before Carry average at 4.1 ??? If you've watched Eagles games, it'd be no surprise. Saquon Barkley goes virtually untouched on every carry. My dead grandma could get positive yardage behind that o-line. Impressive. And yes, I'm the idiot who said Barkley was wayyy over-valued. Certainly hasn't been so far, but let's see where he is at the end of the season. I'll save my plate of crow til then.

Odunze... crazy talent as his draft stock reflects. Last week shows he can get it going with the rookie Qb. Expect several more big games. Jennings ...When Deebo / Kittle are back, and Aiyuk is doing his thing, nobody will remember Jennings week 3 flash in the pan.