GobbleDog

We know what Elliot is at this point, but Dowdle still has hope. I have low expectations for Dallas's running game, but at least Dowdle can be called a viable Lotto ticket. Or least, before Cook signed. Now I don't know what to think other than Jerry Jones has gone completely bananas.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/puka-nacua-injury-update-week-1-9224/ How's Stafford's hammy doing? Is his elbow tendinitis from '22 completely fixed? Meh, probably nothing to worry about.

Some way more than others.

I'm sure the Lions would like some return on their 1st rd (12th overall) investment from '22. But he's clearly the 3rd banana in terms of target share behind St. Brown and LaPorta. Josh Reynolds left (64 targets last year), so that'll help. FFToday Mike projects Williams with 54 rec and 4 Tds, which feels low. I'm thinking more like 85 targets for 60 receptions... 5 or 6 Tds maybe.?. Decent. Not great.

1) Olave ... back-to-back 1,000+ yd seasons, with 138 targets last year - despite missing a game. Michael Thomas (64 targets last year) is gone and the Saints have a new coordinator who should breath much needed life into the offense. Another year of chemistry with Carr, should easily see 150+ targets and another 1,000+ yds. Could very well be a top 10 finish. A distant 2) Kupp ... old and often injured, just like his Qb Stafford. Puca has taken over as the lead guy. Kupp probably flashes here and there, but I wouldn't expect consistency and the injury risk to him and his Qb is quite high. Much rather take a shot on Olave, Adams, London, Collins, Aiyuk or Metcalf. Too many good options to risk it on Kupp. 3) Waddle ... he's damn good and the Dolphins have one of the best offenses. What's not to like? He plays along side a HOF Wr who commands a ridiculous amount of targets. Dolphins acquired athletic freak Te Jonu Smith. Achane is healthy. Dolphins drafted new offensive weapons. Waddle is gonna have some monster games when you wished he was in your lineup. But then he's also gonna have a lot of games with 3 receptions for 50 yds. Again, too many more reliable options out there.

I'd guess Thomlinson '05 & '06? That recent history of #1 Rbs is a testament to the risk involved. I think some just don't want to go against rankings, for fear of being wrong. Not me - I'm wrong all the time. No issue going against rankings; even "reaching" a round for players I want. And sometimes ignoring the supposedly "best" player. By mid-season, the original adp sheet will look ridiculous. Just like every year.

Recent history of #1 Rb per adp (fantasypros) and finish: '15) L Bell ................. 47th '16) T Gurley ........... 15th '17) D Johnson ..... 114th '18) T Gurley ............ 3rd '19) S Barkley ......... 10th '20) C McCaffery ... 54th '21) C McCaffery .... 38th '22) J Taylor ........... 33rd '23) C McCaffery ..... 1st '24) C McCaffery ...... ?

God bless the gamblers!

Yeah, I can't tell anyone who drafts Kamara in the 4th "that's a bad pick"... look at where he keeps finishing! It's incredible. I'm astonished he's still getting that much volume, but he is, or at least he was. We'll see if that continues under the new coordinator. It'll definitely continue for at least the first 4 weeks while Miller is out. After that, I wonder.

No way in the world would I invest the most valuable capital in the entire draft in a 28 yo Rb with significant injury history coming off 650+ touches over the past two years. To top it off... Niners left tackle Trent Williams who's been a vital backbone to the Niners offensive success in recent years is absolutely refusing to practice or play until he gets paid. The fines are piling up... he don't care. If they don't pay him, he might just retire. Can't do it. Rather have Hill or JJ or Lamb or Chase... low risk/damn near guaranteed points. Heck, I'd prefer Breece Hall even though I'm not a big Rb-early guy. I certainly don't blame anyone who does take McCaff... dude finished 1st and 2nd place the past two years. Just hope they understand the risk.

180 carries last season... none broke 20 yds. Only two other Rbs didn't break 20 yards at least once with 75+ carries: Hunt and J. Williams, both with much fewer carries. Longest run over the past three seasons (643 carries later)... 30 yds back in 2021. Ypc the past three years: 3.7, 4.0, 3.9. Last year Kamara had 12 runs inside the five, scored just 3 times. Metrics like juke rate, evaded tackles, breakaway rate, yds per touch, etc. near bottom of the league in almost every category. Caught 75 receptions which is how he finished Rb 9 last year (wk 1-17) despite missing 3 games, but his yards per rec dropped to a career low - 6.2. Kamara isn't "cooked", he's burnt toast. And now he's 29 yo. Clearly, the receptions are his saving grace. But I wonder if the new coordinator is gonna keep feeding him so much volume, especially once Miller gets healthy. We shall see...

If it works out, you'll look like a genius.... that's a deep sleeper. The skinny: Adp No. 326 Rasheen Ali Ravens 5th rd pick out of Marshall. Missed the combine due to injury (torn bicep) which depressed his draft stock, but once a member of Marshall's track team which suggests some serious speed. Scouts tout his quick burst, good vision and receiving skills. Biggest weakness was too many fumbles in college. By using a 5th rd draft pick on him, seems the Ravens were buying some insurance for a Henry injury as Justice Hill is yet another year older and has never amounted to much. If Henry does go down I'd be using my waiver on Ali, definitely not Hill, depth chart be damned.

Alrighty then. So rather than Allen and waiting for an injury to the youthfull/lightly used Breece Hall.... how about Rasheen Ali and waiting for an injury to the old-as-dirt/overworked Travis Henry. If Henry goes down the Ravens will probably turn to their 5th round pick, over Justice Hill. The starting Rb for the Ravens typically does quite well. Or perhaps Kendre Miller and wait for an injury to the old-as-dirt/overworked Kamara. Just some thoughts...

I'd drop Jeudy for some Rb Lotto ticket, but Allen would not be my first choice. Kimani Vidal - whoever guesses right on the Chargers back-field is gonna get paid, be it Edwards, Dobbins or future HOFer Kimani Vidal.

Just wonder how much of that Te 3 was due to injuries of Hollywood, Wilson, Ertz, Conner all of whom missed a few games during McBride's second half romp. McBride was barely used his rookie year and even with last year's 2nd half performance he finished Te 8. Now he's being drafted at Te 3. Not a lot of value there. Also concerning that Murray isn't exactly a prolific passer - five years in the league and never had 4,000 yds, which kind of sad in the modern NFL. Finally, the Cardinals are expected to be a bottom dweller this year... might mean some garbage points, but also might mean fewer possessions and lower overall scoring. Te 3 just feels like it's really pushing it. We shall see... I was wrong once before.

Walker - great pick. Can't go wrong with Chase/Nakua. Top 10ers. Everyone else on the planet loves McBride... I'm luke warm. What do I know. Old man Kamara. He'll be fine so long as they keep checking down to him. Though that strategy got the last coordinator fired. Might think about picking up Miller before he's back Week 5. Kamara isn't the most durable anymore and ya never know how that situation plays out.

Early draft picks are the most valuable capital you own. Investing that capital into the most volatile and least predictable position, can be risky. Among the top 5 Rbs adp last year.... only 1 finished top 10. (McCaff) Among the top 5 Wrs adp last year... 4 finished top 10. (Jefferson didn't) If your early Rbs avoid the injury bug and live up to adp - fantastic, but if ya miss... might need to hit homeruns the rest of the daft. Everyone is worried if they don't draft an early Rb, they'll be hurting at that position all year - I used to be that guy. But it's extremely easy to fill 2 messily Rb spots with very startable Rbs rounds 4-8, along with Lotto picks and waiver pick ups. Completely avoid risking my most valuable capital. Also nice to know that MOST of the top 10 Rb finishers last year, were actually drafted rds 3-6. Mostert was lowest (rd 10). Der's gold in the dem hills - just gotta mine it. Any strategy can win obviously. If ya load up on Rbs early, I'll be rooting for ya. I'm just a bit more risk averse.

Love it when a plan comes together. Draft results from the #6 spot: 1, 2, 3 ... Jefferson, Olave, Collins - PPR and bonus pts for 100 yd games; guess which position breaks 100 yds more than any other... oh yeah. 4, 5, 6 ... Stevenson, Jones, Z. White - shotgun middle. Bound to hit something. 7 ... Ferguson - last of the good one's. Just like mock drafts said. 8 ... Spears - only pick not to plan... Moss, Singletary, and Mostart gone. Oh well, #4 Rb rarely sees the light of day. 9 ... Tua - 0.5 pt per COMPLETION plus bonus pts for 300 yd games. God bless me. 10, 11, 12 ... Bowers, Hollywood, Cousins - remember, safety first! 13, 14 ... Vidal, and who cares - got my Lotto Give it up for the greatest draft in the history of the world!

That's absolutely insane. Never heard of that system. I love it! Greatly alters the draft strategy. I wouldn't know how to begin.

No risk, but my ranking is: Hill, JJ, Lamb, Chase, Wilson, St. Brown.... I'm contrarian, but not just for the sake of it.

I'll one up ya.... my big money league gives 6 pt passing Tds, 0.5 pt per completion, and bonus points for 300 passing yards. Qb's tend to go slightly earlier than normal, but not extreme. Last year the first Qb taken was Mahomes early rd 2, because of what he did in '22. But he stunk it up last year, so doubt that happens again. I'll be surprised if any Qbs get taken before round 3 this year. Even in that scoring system my strategy is still to wait til rd 9. Goff, Cousins, Tua..... all of them should finish top 10. Just like Goff and Tua did last year.

Agree with Jeudy, not because he's "soft" - don't know if he is, but regardless, where is he on the target pecking order? Maybe 4th? On a run-first team with mentally broken Watson at Qb? Bad situation. Hollywood will be inconsistent, but all Chiefs Wrs will be. I don't think it's a terrible pick, just wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out. I'd prefer him over Worthy that's for sure. Odunze is gonna surprise. Dude is a stud and I think he straight-up outperforms Keenan this year. No injury necessary. Might take til mid-season though.

Word that comes to mind is .... Risky. IF Taylor holds up, he should have a very good year. IF Stafford stays healthy - Nacua should finish Wr 10+-. IF Kelce continues to be a top 3 Te (despite slumping second half last year). And IF Mixon isn't washed, even though his metrics indicate that might be the case. I do like Prescott, Cooper, Odunze. All probably outperform adp. What I don't get is.... 7 Wrs, but only 3 Rbs? Might want to exchange some of those late picks for Rb lotto tickets while the getting is good. Kimanii Vidal still out there? Highly recommend. As as Wr-heavy guy, it wasn't my cup 'o tea. But there's many ways to skin a cat. Skin that cat HTH !!!

Don't be scared of Zero Rb. "Oh I'll be hurting at that position all year.... " No ya won't. PLENTY of startable Rbs rounds 4-8. Add in some late round Rb lotto picks (Vidal), waiver pickups.... you'll be fine. We're talking 2 messily spots to fill. And most of the league who did draft Rbs early will be regretting it when they're lost to injury or just flat out under-perform. Happens every year.

Best Wr available... unfortunately that might be Puca, but I'd hold my nose and do it. Pretty much a lock for Olave in 2nd (if he doesn't get 160 targets this year, I'll eat my hat). If I can't get him, I'd settle for Adams. Then comes late 3rd... this is where things sometimes got sketchy in mock drafts. I'm obviously big Wr-Wr-Wr guy, but the last worthwhile Wr's IMO in the 3rd are Aiyuk and Metcalf and in some mocks... they gone. So in those cases I pivoted and took Rb Walker (very bullish). If ya do land Wr-Wr-Wr... again look for Walker in the early 4th. Probably won't be disappointed. Give 'em hell HTH !