GobbleDog

Te 11 to finish top 10 .?. Bold

Tua finished 18th last year (wk 1-17) in pt/gm (10 overall) mostly due to only playing the first half in several games (score out of hand) and Mostert fluking an absurd amount of Tds. I expect much better this season, with another season in the McDaniel's system, additions of Jonu Smith, Odel Beckham, and offensive draft weapons. Probably much fewer Mostert vultures, and maybe one or two random rushing Tds for Tua... Adp Qb 15 ... seems incredibly low.

I keep flip-flopping ... a month ago I would've said St. Brown, Wilson, JJ. Now I'm JJ, Wilson, St. Brown... starting to lose my concern about JJ's hammy and think there's an over-reaction to his Qb. He's Qb-proof and probably looking at 180+ targets with Hockenson out... and possibly Addison suspended if there's any resolve with his court date in October. I think Wilson has more upside than St. Brown... doesn't have to share with LaPorta and St. Brown is more of short-yardage dude. Regardless, probably can't go wrong with any. Should all finish top 10 or damn close to it.

They're actually tied for 7th favorite to win it all... so midly bold. It's crazy what the Watson trade did for that team. 3 first-rounds, a third, and 2 fourths. To go with their own draft picks. Good lord. If they do win it all they should give Watson a Superbowl ring.

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Antonio Pierce became interim coach mid-season went on record about having his Rb "reach the magic number of 20 carries per game." He followed through on that... when Z. White filled in for Jacobs in the final four games, White's carries were 17, 22, 20, and 25.... on top of 9 total receptions. Antonio Pierce - President of the Bell-Cow conservation society.

If I had to pick one Rb to finish with the most carries this year, I'd bet on Z. White.

Akers tore his Achilles twice - same leg. Amazing he's still in the league.

Bold Predictions thread... coming soon. Be there!

Same. One particular "expert" that I respect and have relied on in the past... I was extremely disappointed when his rankings recently released. My analysis and opinions don't match up at all. I'll bring a "cheat sheet" to the draft just to scratch off names, but as far as drafting players... I'm officially on my own.

Scouts describe Davis as a jack of all trades, master of none. He can do it all, but not elite. At 220 lbs, very well might get more goal line work than Cook. Problem is Allen steals goal line from everyone. Bills had 22 rushing Tds last year, but their lead back (Cook) had only 2 of them. Ugh.... first rbbc became trendy and now rushing Qbs. They're killing independent Rb.

Wasn't saying he's a good or bad pick. Just not impressed with the video. Volume is clearly his saving grace, both carries and receptions. I'll never understand why the Bucs drafted Bucky Irving - dude has zero athleticism and doesn't seem to be much of a threat to White, despite his inefficiency.

Achilles has ended the fantasy value of all Rbs. 2022 Donta Foreman is the high-water mark... 914 yds and 5 tds, five years after the Achilles. That's it. Someday a Rb will finally overcome the Achilles. I hope it's Dobbins, but I wouldn't bank on it.

It's sad because he looked amazing his rookie season. Since then he's suffered a torn ACL (not the end of the world), and a torn Achilles (it's the end of the world)... Truly hope he breaks the Achilles curse of death, because he's a really cool/likeable dude in interviews and it'd be an amazing comeback story. Give hope to all future Achilles Rbs, because as of now... there's no hope.

Recently Youtubed "Rachaad White every run, target and catch" and picked a few random games from last year. I'm no scout, but seems to run straight forward every time, hole or no hole, gets hit, and falls down. Not much vision, juking or tackle breaking. Waits for blockers up front, but in the games I saw never once reversed course and ran toward the edge (not the quickest dude). Good hands and finds open space, but rarely does much after the catch aside from when receivers made terrific blocks. His running style is like Najee Harris being north-south rushers, but Najee is tougher to take down - not surprising at his size. Anyone else watch Youtubes of these guys? I was really impressed with Walker (excellent speed and vision), and more than I expected with Brian Robinson - underrated receiver IMO getting open and making nice catches down the sidelines that ya rarely see with Rbs.

Odds are he ultimately takes the Niners $28 mil offer. He wants $30 mil. Seriously doubt he risks all of it by playing out his contract. Nobody holds out anymore. The last guy to do it was 2018 Lev Bell who now says it was the worst mistake of his life.

Bengals o-line should improve with a top free agent signing (Brown), 1st round pick (Mims), and Orlando Brown finally healthy. Burrow's potent offense kept defenses honest which helped open lanes for Mixon - no change there. Zac Taylor has used a bell-cow back all five seasons he's coached (Mixon had 80% of carries last year). Nobody knows what the split is now, but seems likely the $4 mil free agent coming off two solid seasons, gets the bulk over the second-year 5th round draft pick out of Illinois who spent 5 years in college and has a total of 44 NFL carries. Probably boils down to how Moss plays.... if he's effective, they'll keep feeding him. People just assume Brown will be "much more involved." Based on what?

I've been very slow to come around on Johnson... partly because I correctly predicted how bad he would be last year. So he goes to Panthers and I figured 'ok he sucked at Pitt, he'll continue to suck at the sucky Panthers.' But the more I think about it... he probably won't. He steps in as the best receiving option on the team - sorry Theilen but the party's over. The offense will almost certainly be improved with new coaches and another year for Young. Johnson's adp is Wr 38. I can't fathom he does worse than that. Don't foresee top 20, but somewhere in that range. So ... value.

I keep reading people say that (mostly Barkley supporters) ... "They want to stop relying on the tush push." "Don't want Hurts to get injured." "They lost Kelce so it'll be different now." I'll believe it when I see it. They've perfected a damn near unstoppable play. Hurts leads the league in rushing Tds over the past 3 years. "But now they have the legendary Barkley!" It's still an unstoppable play and Barkley's metrics haven't been legendary for years, but as they say - legends never die.

Brown will steal targets. Although only had 15 targets last year, albeit 12 games. So maybe it goes up to 2 or 3 targets per game. And maybe some change of pace work. He probably isn't getting goal line or the bulk of early down work and there should still be plenty of other targets left for Moss. Plus always a chance Moss simply blows up... this is essentially his last chance to be a big time NFL Rb. He landed in the right spot for that opportunity. More specifically - he chose that team, as the Cowboys reportedly made an offer as well which he declined. We're talking Rb 28 ... 7th round. It's not like your risking all the marbles. Looks like a sound investment to me.

Rodgers is strange... if he finished top 5 - nobody would be shocked; if he finished 25th - nobody would be shocked. I think he probably will outperform his Qb 18 adp, but by how much is anyone's guess.

I've got a bunch of late round players I expect to vastly exceed adp, but my favorite... Rb 28 - Z. Moss. The starting Rb for the high-scoring Bengals is fantasy gold and I don't believe the Chase Brown hype. If I'm dead wrong - Moss is a 7th round pick who still probably finishes Rb 28+-. But if I'm right, could be top 15, possibly top 10. Look what Mixon and his unimpressive metrics did for years in Cinci. I'm buying Moss at that adp. Actually surprised it's so low - God bless Chase Brown hype.

I'll see you in the Bold Predictions thread. Coming soon.

Rb 6 isn't exactly under the radar. Regardless, you'll recognize him - look for the guy on the sidelines watching Hurts cannibalize goal line Tds.

Ford finished Rb 14 last year. I was stunned to see that, because from a football standpoint he was average at best. The 5 receiving Tds really padded the stats. This year I expect he'll continue getting 3rd down work, but considering how mediocre he was (clearly not the work horse the Browns needed when Chubb went down), I could see the Browns spreading out early down and goal line work a little more - Browns signed Foreman and Strong is still there. Obviously when Cubb does come back... Ford will be officially dead.