GobbleDog

There goes somebody wasting a 1st rounder on Gibbs, pushing really good Wr's further into the 2nd round.

Thanks. Just one problem.... fantasy playoffs. Miami's final schedule: Week 15 @ HOU - decent defense Week 16 SF - very good defense Week 17 @ CLE - good defense and it's gonna be freezing cold

You'd think so. But in my 0.5 pt per completion league with bonus pts for 300+ passing games and 6 pt passing Tds, people still draft off standard cheat sheets. And it's a big money league. I'm still deciding which late round Qbs I want in that league... I'm currently very high on Tua Tagovailoa. Going in 10th+ rounds of most drafts. In standard leagues I get why people aren't big on him.... finished Qb 19 in standard - he never runs. But in my ridiculous scoring system he finished 8th. And that was with Mostert fluking an insane amount of goal line Tds, and Tua taking the 2nd half off several times because they were leading by so much. Add in Jonu Smith, healthy Achane, new fast-as-hell Rb and Wr rookies. And ya never know, maybe Tua adds one or two rushing Tds. Wouldn't be surprised if he finished with 35 to 40 total Tds. along with 4,500+ yds. Not bad for a 10th rounder.

Bargaining chip in negotiations, divert Russian troops, gain international headlines/support, lower Russian moral... maybe all. My guess is the main objective is diverting Russian troops. Ukraine wasn't making any significant gains in Donbas and perhaps hoped this attack might alter that status, along with the other benefits. Reportedly Russia hasn't budged many elite troops from Donbas yet, indicating they also believe that's the true objective. But eventually they'll have to if they want to kick Ukraine out. Then maybe comes the big counter-strike in Donbas.?.

Seems to be a hell of a coincidence Ukraine undertook the surprise attack, within weeks of getting the F-16's. Possibly used to assist the attack, or to hold Russians back in Donbas freeing up Ukraine troops. Possibly both. I haven't read anything that mentions any of that, just a thought that came to mind.

Gibbs finished Rb 8 (Rb 7 ppg). He did it by scoring 11 total Tds - two of which came in games Monty was out. He's currently Rb 6. Gonna have to score another 11 or more Tds to justify that adp. Could be tough considering he doesn't get much goal line work.

That's the clincher. If it was Mahomes or Burrow or some great passer, maybe. We'll see if his elite talent can overcome being a rookie and playing for Murray. If he does it, I'll eat crow and give you all the props.

Of course any player is draftable if they fall far enough, but some high ranking players that would have to fall 3 rounds before I'd consider them... Rb 6 Saquon Barkley - for reasons previously discussed. My pick for '24 Bust of the Year. Wr 9 Marvin Harrison - yall do know he's a rookie, right? And Kyler Murray is Qb.?. Ok then. Rb 9 Devon Achane - only Rb in this range who won't get 150 carries, even if he could stay healthy.

Some metrics outside of pure volume in analyzing Rb's - decent Rbs typically rank around 20th in most of these: Zeke's '23 ranking.... True yac 60th, Yds per touch 51st, Yds created per touch 34th, Juke rate 42nd, Breakaway rate 57th, Production premium 35th Well, that was New England and they stunk. Perhaps he was better in Dallas.... nope, his '22 and '21 rankings were similarly terrible. Zeke is the definition of a cooked Rb. With those metrics, it'd take a ridiculous amount of touches for him to get 1,000 total yards. "But Zeke had 955 total yards last year"... true and 49% of that came from Week 13 onward - after Stephenson got injured. If you start Zeke, the best you can hope for is a fluky Td and 2-3 receptions. And that's on a good day. Imagine all the weeks you'll be glad you didn't start him. Even in the 9th/10th round, he seems more like a wasted pick and season-long roster clogger. I'd rather take a dart throw on lotto ticket that might turn into something.

If scouts weren't touting who the top Qb prospect was, I never would've have guessed Caleb. I would've picked about 5 Qbs ahead of him. Stats were good, but not elite in any particular category. Admittedly I only saw Caleb play two games last year, but he didn't look worthy of the first pick of the draft. Maybe I caught some down weeks, but I didn't see the hype. Shows what kind of scout I am. He's definitely in a great position to succeed with all those weapons in Chicago.

It stinks alright... 31 Qbs had 250+ passing attempts last year. Field's 61.4% completion rate ranked 28th just above Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, and Will Levis. And that was Field's highest completion percentage over his three year career. Oof.

That's exactly how I feel about the situation until Kelce falls of a cliff or retires.

I'm still soul searching over which Wr I prefer in the 2nd.... Olave, Adams, or London I originally dismissed Olave out of hand with Carr at qb, but I'm starting to warm up to him. The two 1,000 yd seasons with poor qb play is impressive. He's certainly proved more than London so far, who might have a bit more target competition with Pitts, but of course now has Cousins. Who knows if it all clicks year one. Adams just goes against my ethos that it's better to get out a year early than a year late. Still hard to ignore that volume. One knock I'd heard on Olave is Carr's air yd/completion ratio (6.5) was fairly short, while Olave's adot (13.3) was high... the numbers don't jive. "Double team Olave past ten yards, and Carr checks it down." Might be some truth, but Kamara's target volume accounts for some of that. And there's a new coordinator in town.

Browns offer to Niners was reportedly Amari Cooper, along with 2nd and 3rd picks. Aiyuk refused reportedly not wanting to play in Cleveland. Amari Cooper responded to the trade news - "LOL I wouldn't mind at all." Nobody knows if that meant he'd love to play for the high-powered Niners, or just get out of Cleveland. Maybe both. Cooper will now be playing for a team that tried to trade him away a month before the season starts.

In spite of what Hall did with Zach Wilson, facing stacked defenses, and while Garrett Wilson was a target hog.?. Metrics were damn impressive. That would ease my concern about Double Douche. Seems clear cut Rb 2 to me. I'd have more concerns about Bijan splitting goal line and early down work with Algier.

I rank Hall Rb 2, but won't draft him in the first round. Reason being what you just said. 1) McCaff, 2) Hall, 3) Bijan .... Good chance 2 of those 3 don't finish top ten. Quite possibly none. 1) Lamb, 2) Hill, 3) Chase.... it'd be very surprising if 2 of those 3 don't finish top ten. Likely all them finish top 10 or darn close to it. Most people would agree with that assessment, yet people keep drafting Rb's early.

As much as Richardson runs, we actually don't know about his goal line usage yet. Not all running Qb's get goal line Tds. Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray are good examples.

Good chance he goes back to San Fran and just accepts the $28 mil annual offer which would make him the 6th highest payed Wr. Reports are he wanted $30 mil making him top 4. I guess he could always hope to ball-out and get bigger money in free-agency next year... but that carries a lot of risk. My guess is he re-signs with Niners if all trades falls through.

Yards Before Contact - shows mix of O-line run-block quality, offensive prowess (less stacked boxes), and to some extent Rb finding holes. Among the 23 Rbs with 200+ touches last year.... Najee was dead last with 1.6 yds. McCaff was highest at 3.1. Average was 2.4. Prior years. '22 Najee ... 2.1 '21 Najee ... 1.7 No wonder the Steelers spent so much draft capital on O-linemen in recent years, and Pitt's offense has been terrible. But, does Najee have a problem finding the hole? Settle down Beavis.

"Ah Darnold sucks"... everyone's first reaction. But if ya look at his situation, might cut him some slack. Entered league as the youngest Qb to ever start - for the lowly Jets no less. His coach the next two years - Adam Gase, among the worst head coaches of all time. The Jets supporting cast was terrible. Goes to Carolina which is of course another cluster. In '22 Darnold starts the final 6 games - under the interim coach. His last game was a disaster throwing two picks early and gets benched. But the prior five... 7 Td / 3 Int 1,100 yds. Topped 103 passer rating in 4 of the 5 with a high of 121.4. Last year he barely saw the field as back-up in San Fran. Darnold has been to hell and back. Now finds himself in the best situation of his career with a great supporting cast and stable coaching regime. Don't expect him to be a pro-bowler, but I bet he's a lot better than many expect. Unfortunately, the Vikings have a brutal schedule to start the season. Be interesting if he hangs on to the job after their Week 6 bye.

I rank JJ lower because of the unknown Qb play and last year's hammy issue. But c'mon... "zero chance?" Might be overstating it. Projected to 170 targets over a full season last year which includes games he got hurt and lightly used upon return. Had 184 targets the year prior. We know he's going to get volume regardless of who's qb. Probably 180+ targets. His final four games last year - with Nick Mullens at qb, JJ was 3rd in points per game. So whether it's Darnold or McCarthy, he certainly has a chance to finish higher than Hill and Lamb. He's the most talented Wr in the league and gets sick volume. Nobody would be surprised if JJ finished #1.

Read the same... all getting snaps with the first team. This quote sounds like they've all been told they'll be using committee Rb's all season. “We haven’t done a running back by committee here so I’m not sure with how it will all go,’’ Rico Dowdle said after Monday’s practice. “But expectations for myself are to do more than I did last year, whatever that may be."

I'd read the Niners didn't want to sign both Aiyuk and Samuel to monster contracts, and were hoping to make a final decision at season's end. If the Steelers trade falls through and he plays the final year in San Fran, he's gonna want to ball-out to increase free agent value. What happens if the volume he wants isn't there? Diva time, disgruntled, or just accepts it? Could be awkward.

Pickens adp is currently Wr 26-28 range. If he goes to Niners, people will expect Aiyuk -ish numbers. His adp probably won't rise to Aiyuk's Wr 14, but definitely higher than it is now. I'd guess Wr 20+-.

I wasn't sure myself when I started this thread - just did it to bs about anything fantasy football. But the more numbers I crunch and think about this situation, I'm really liking Harris at that low adp. Not many Rb's staring at 250+ carries available that late in the draft and he's in a great situation. Admittedly Warren's metrics were off the charts last year... impressive, but gonna be tough to repeat.