GobbleDog

Heard a scout guru (Nystrom) about Worthy today. His thoughts: I was surprised when I saw the adp on Xavier Worthy. He of course broke the combine record for forty and creates separation. Where I think it could be an issue initially is Mahomes trusting him and staying on the field. Worthy has got a real issue with drops and that was catching the ball in the intermediate range, even short. Sometimes he was wide open, the ball would just clank off his hands. He also doesn't have a very good catch radius, so you have to fit it in there, and even then he's not money. Also not as good down-field as you would think for a guy of his speed. Texas didn't use him much with that. Right now Worthy is being projected as a starter in the offense with Brown, Rice as well Sky Moore. But the skill set of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown are superfluous. That was one guy that Worthy was comped to during the pre-draft process. But Brown right now is way more reliable than Worthy, certainly as a route runner, but also the hands as well. Mahomes is gonna trust him more, and then the other concepts. Going down the field, posting up Rice for a lot of that stuff, and then of course you have the pass catching vacuum with tight end and Travis Kelsey. I don't know what about Worthy's profile justifies him being taken as high as he is. I don't think he starts super fast as a rookie.

The rule can't get banned this year as owners already met and made rule changes - tush push remained in tact. It was illegal to push and pull teammates forward... until 2005 when the NFL repealed the "push" part. The logic was refs couldn't easily judge who was pushing who, which led to some bad calls. In any case, I keep hearing some Barkley supporters say the Eagles want to get away from it, but I haven't heard that from any official sources (coaches). Even if they did say it - I won't believe it til I see it. The Eagles have perfected a damn-near unstoppable play.

Barkley's metrics declined from '21 to '22, and again in '23 - and last year was really bad. Once one of the most elusive Rb's in the league, last year his juke rate ranked 48th, true yac 51st, yd per touch 42nd, yds created per touch 46th, etc. Some blame the declined metrics on a bad Giants team and there might be some truth to that. But that is some serious decline, which should make anyone drafting him nervous. In New York, Barkley also had the advantage of being on the field all the time with snap counts around 70 to 90%+ (one week last year was 97%). The Eagles have never been that kind of team and there's no guarantee Barkley continues to get that much volume. The Eagles might also want to preserve him for a playoff push, especially given his age and history. Hurts doesn't throw much to Rbs so no certainty he gets the 50+ receptions some are expecting. Last year Swift - known for receptions, had just 39. In '22 and '21, Gainwell led the Rbs with just 23 and 33 respectively. But the death nail is the Tush Push which puts a hard cap on his value. Barkley will have to score most of his Tds from distance - which isn't reliable. Throw in Barkley's age, millage, and injury history for good measure... I'm out. He's currently Rb 6. I think that's ridiculously optimistic. I get the euphoria - The Legendary Barkley going to the high-powered Eagles. Sounds good, but caveat emptor.

Possible, but 200 might be a stretch. The all-time NFL record is 205 by Marvin Harrison in '02. In '22, Lamb only had 156. Over the past five years, the league's highest targets were 181, 184, 191, 166, & 185 (last two being 16 games). Whatever... he's going to get a lot of targets - probably among the top five. I can't blame anyone for taking Lamb first considering he finished 1st last year and 5th in '22. The reason he doesn't top my list is last year took an insane amount of targets (probably happens again), 14 total Tds of which 2 were rushing (not sure if that happens again), and a career season from Dak (not sure if that happens again). But the sheer volume alone should make him a lock for top 5. Seems like a very safe pick.

Haven't fully decided order, but I'm leaning 1) Hill 2) Chase 3) Lamb 4) St. Brown .... whatever order I settle on, I'd take any of them and then McCaff. Which ain't happening in any league in the world.

Redraft and don't know spot yet. The reason I'm sure I won't get those guys is McCaff would have to fall to 5th - I want those sure-fire Wrs. Hall would have to fall to about 10th, and Taylor/Bijan would have to fall to early 2nd round. None of that is happening.

My rank... 1) McCaff, 2) Hall, 3) Taylor, 4) Bijan. I wouldn't rank Gibbs top 10, nor Barkley top 15... shows what I think of their situations. The McCaff over-work thing, yeah huge problem. Hell 339 touches last year, think about 668 touches over the past two years. I'd love to see some breakdown of how often Rbs had that amount of touches over a two year span and how they fared the next year... not to mention age 28 with so much millage already. Very few have done it. But there's no predicting Rb injuries... even the most durable of durable drop like flies (Chubb). Not to mention, under-performance. So much variance at that position. As such, I likely won't be drafting any of them as they won't fall far enough for me to even consider them.

Very true. There are three big-name Rbs with bad metrics and going to new teams: Barkley, Mixon and Jacobs. "They'll do better, that prior team sucked." We shall see. I'm skeptical with all of 'em.

The Jets had some of worst Qb play in league ... Hall finished 4th (week 1-17). So I don't get the logic "If Rogers gets hurt again..." He tore his acl in Week 7 of '22. Didn't miss a game last year and ... finished 4th. Hardly a "sub-par year." I'm the last person to advocate taking a Rb early, but Hall's #2 ranking makes perfect sense. Great metrics, lots of receptions, all goal line work... and now playing for an improved Jets team. He'd be the next Rb I'd draft after McCaff.

Apparently he didn't "fully gain the trust of his coach" by the playoffs, despite a solid season: Wildcard: Monty 14 carries, Gibbs 8 Division: Monty 10 carries, Gibbs 9 Conference: Monty 15 carries, Gibbs 12 This isn't a "trust" issue - it's a two-man team strategy which worked incredibly well. Monty and Gibbs are gonna split carries until it stops working or one gets injured. I wouldn't spend an early 2nd round pick on a player who doesn't get the bulk of goal line work and might not even get 200 carries. If I was to draft a Rb that early, I'd prefer Taylor - he ain't splitting with anyone, likely gets 250 to 300+ carries, some receptions and all goal line work. But I'd still stick with Wr-Wr. Less risk and several mid-round Rbs to fill two spots.

Actually 9th (fantasypros weeks 1-17 hlf pt) https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr-rb.php?year=2023&start=1&end=17 Regardless, what indicates Gibbs gets the ball more? Lions offense was so efficient last year, I doubt they'd want to make much change. Especially with Monty playing so well and Gibbs at a slight 5'9" 200 lbs... makes sense why Monty got the goal line bulk. Probably don't want to work-horse him.

That's not exactly fair. Gets a pass rookie year. Lamar Jackson only broke 3,000 passing yards once (barely) in the three years Brown was there and he still amazingly broke 1,000 yds. His first year in Arizona he was on pace to break 1,000 yds til injury. Last year Murray's passer rating sucked first half of season before injury and then passing got even worse when the backup came in. Brown was a highly-touted 1st rounder for a reason, he just landed in some really bad passing teams. This is the best situation he's ever had. However... I'm still not drafting him. Between Rice playing/not playing and the poor history of Wrs in KC (not named Hill), I'm out. He probably has a few big games and might be a decent best ball, but I wouldn't want to rely on him as an every week starter.

Don't know Fuzzy... but with the 10th pick Brown, Wilson, and Nacua should all be available. Collins and Waddle are fine picks at the 3rd/4th turn, but whichever two early Rbs you select will likely disappoint. How do I know? Because the majority of early Rb picks don't live up to expectation. And those picks are your most valuable draft capital. In a 10-teamer you can easily fill two Rb spots along with depth from rounds 5 to 10. Throw in some lotto picks later, work the waivers... Let the competition feel the pain of their early picks disappointing. I can tell you're dead set on drafting an early Rb no matter what I say, and it might work out. Just riskier. If I was FORCED to draft a Rb that early... I'd want Taylor, after the big 3 are gone of course (McCaff, Hall, Bijan). Taylor is in a much better situation, than Gibbs or Barkley.

I do! PPR, Wr-Wr is too obvious especially in a 10-girl league which guarantees numerous starting Rbs in middle rounds. Early picks are your most valuable draft capital. Investing that into the most volatile/unpredictable position is risky. I've hammered reasons why I think Barkley will be the biggest fantasy disappointment this season. Poor metrics, injury risk, less usage than in NY, Hurts steals goal line. He could fall to the 4th rd and I still wouldn't draft him - that's not hyperbole. I think that low of his prospects. Don't love Gibbs considering Monty gets bulk of easy short-yard Tds... 17 attempts inside five, scored 8. Gibbs had 10 attempts inside five, scored 4... he has to earn his the hard way - from distance. That's not reliable. They also split too many carries as Gibbs only had 182 carries last year (granted missed two games), but still... 27 other Rbs finished with more carries - including Montgomery. I love the receptions, but I wouldn't spend a 2nd rounder on him.

Spent 20+ years on this forum and I miss it. But look at the front page topics... unbearable. Mike should create a "Politics" forum so these idiots can annoy each other to death. Til he does, see yall on the mange forum.

Excellent advice. "Draft your guys" - don't over-think the ADP game and miss out on some players you believe in. I'd rather go down in flames with my-guys, than players I didn't particularly want. I don't mind reaching a round (punz) to make that happen.

Fantasypros Rb 14 ESPN Rb 15 FFToday Rb 14 Yahoo Rb 10 ................................... Rb 14 in ppr is typically 4th round.

In last year's Bold Predictions I picked Nico Collins (then Wr 53) to "finish top 25" because of talent and changes in Houston. Despite missing two games he finished Wr 18 (wks 1-17 ppr) and Wr 15 in points per game. One for the good guys! So now Collins is ranked Wr 17. Ugh... not much value, but I do think that's about right. Even with Diggs, he should continue producing. He's a proven asset in Houston, entering 4th year, and much better than Diggs at the downfield stuff, which is Stroud's bread and butter. Diggs at Wr 23 is too rich for my blood. Old, faded horribly last year, new team, poor deep-pass metrics, and number of targets is a huge question. Dell at Wr 32 seems bit high given the target competition. I think he'd be a better best ball pick as he probably has several spike weeks. He's a deep threat, but that usually means a lot of down weeks too.

Good point. Quick Google search... don't see much. Limited examples I read: "Edgerin James, Ricky Williams, Jerome Bettis, Doug Martin." But those are dramatic cases. Probably see some Rb metrics improve occasionally year-to-year... though they ultimately always trend down.

Asking for a trade is one thing... getting traded requires: Another team offering the long-term big-money deal he's demanding & that team giving enough draft capital to satisfy the Niners. Who knows if that happens. But I can see why the Steelers might be interested. They need help in the air department.

Per Fantasypros Advanced RB Stats... Jacobs had 1.3 yds after contact per attempt. By comparison Z. White on that same Raiders team had 2.2. Breece Hall was 2.2, McCaff 2.1. etc. In 2022, Jacobs had an insane 2.4 It was consistent with PlayerProfiler.com rankings in key metrics like: True yac (63rd), yds per touch (49th), juke rate (53rd), breakaway rate (48th), yds created per touch (49th) A pretty steep decline from 2022: True yac (23rd), yds per touch (18th), juke rate (11th), breakaway rate (31st), yds created per touch (13th) I'm not saying he's washed... but he might be. Guess we'll find out this year. I wouldn't want to gamble my 4th round pick on it. Especially not with Loyd there. I will say the saving grace for Jacobs is the receptions, as Loyd ain't taking those. Probably finishes with 50+ receptions.

Jacobs enters his 6th season with 1,500+ touches and just had a career worst performance - blame it all on the crappy Raiders if ya like, but his stats were good the year prior on a similarly bad team. The Packers o-line should be better, but they also face the most difficult schedule against the run this year. Then there's 3rd round rookie Marshawn Loyd who could eventually become the main goal-line Rb, and potentially take most early down work if Jacob's efficiency doesn't improve. That's a lot of red flags for Rb 14, a mid-4th round pick.

I think I'm out on all Vikings Wrs and Te. Jefferson's Wr 5 discount isn't enough for unknown (likely bad) Qb play and possible reinjury of the hammy which was serious enough to cost him 7 games last year. Addison has the same Qb problem, along with a pending suspension. And nobody knows when Hockenson will return from his torn ACL & MCL or to what form.

Nobody else around here starts topics, so what the heck. "2024" is in the header in case CMH decides to bump this thread in five years and confuse the hell out of everyone. Rankings per FantasyPros (ppr) 1) Ceedee Lamb ADP 1.02. Played 17 games, 181 tar - 135 rec, 1,749 yds (13.0 avg), 29 deep rec (20+ yds), 12 Tds. Finished 1st last year with 403.2 pts or 23.7 per game. Was 5th in '22, and 19th in '21. Extremely consistent last year scoring 10+ pts in every game, a feat only Lamb and Hill achieved. Not much changed in Dallas, other than Rb. Years back I questioned the talent, but after the last two years - hush-yo-mouf... I was wrong. I do wonder being #1 as Prescott probably won't replicate his career best season, but another top 5-ish finish feels safe. 2) Tyreek Hill ADP 1.03. Played 16 games, 171 tar - 119 rec, 1,799 yds (15.1 avg), 29 deep rec, 13 Tds. Finished 2nd last year with 378.4 pts or 23.5 per game. Was 2nd in '22 and 6th in '21. What can ya say... he's incredible and perfectly fits the Dolphins speed system. Turned 30 yo recently, but he's so damn fast even a slight drop is still faster than everyone on the field. Team hasn't changed and feels like one of the safest picks in the draft. 3) Amon-Ra St. Brown ADP 1.04. Played 16 games, 164 tar - 119 rec, 1,515 yds (12.7 avg), 24 deep rec, 10 Tds. Finished 3rd last year with 330.9 pts or 20.7 per game. Was 7th in '22 and 21st in '21. Wr Josh Reynolds left, but not much else changed. Brown and La Porta are the backbone of the offense, which also boasts a strong running game with Gibbs and Monty. Brown doesn't get quite as many deep targets as other elite Wr's, but plenty of volume. Should easily finish top 10 and another top 3 is quite possible. .............................................................. 4) Ja'Marr Chase ADP 1.05. Played 16 games, 145 tar - 100 rec, 1,216 yds (12.2 avg), 14 deep rec, 14 Tds. Finished 11th last year with 262.7 pts or 16.4 per game. Was 11th in '22 (missed games) and 5th in '21. Burrow only played 10 games last year, so the 11th place finish wasn't too shabby. Burrow recently had surgery on his throwing hand, but reports are he should be good to go. So this pick really depends on what you believe. Tee Higgins is threatening a hold-out and Tyler Boyd left town, so perhaps Chase sees more double teams? Regardless, the "experts" I listen to say Burrow will be fine and given Chase's sick talent - double-teams be damned, I foresee a top 5-ish finish. 5) Justin Jefferson ADP 1.06. Played 10 games, 110 tar - 68 rec, 1,078 yds (15.8 avg), 25 deep rec, 5 Tds. Finished 33rd last year with 202.2 pt or 20.2 per game. Was 1st in '22 and 4th in '21. Missed seven games last year due to a hamstring. Kirk Cousins is out replaced by Sam Darnold and rookie McCarthy. Jefferson only played five games without Cousins at the end season averaging 18.6 pts per game, though the average is skewed by a week 18 spike (36 pts) against a Lions team which had already wrapped up the playoffs (but fighting for a bye). Don't know if Lions benched starters, but without that game Jefferson only averaged 14.2 pts per game in the prior four. So, what to expect from one of the most talented Wr's with Darnold and possibly a rookie? Ugh... The impossible question, but looking at how his points dropped in the final games and how Chase declined without Burrow, a top 5 finish seems overly optimistic. I'm leaning top 10-ish, but even that feels risky - god-forbid the hamstring problem returns. Might have to pass and let someone else roll these dice. 6) A.J. Brown ADP 1.09. Played 17 games, 158 tar - 106 rec, 1,456 yds (13.7), 21 deep rec, 7 Tds. Finished 5th last year with 289.6 pts or 17.0 per game. Was 6th in '22 and 32nd in '21 (missed games). Once Mr. Consistent, he dipped some last year having fairly low scoring games in the final four. The Eagles fired the o-coordinator for last year's offensive failures and brought in Kellen Moore who was recently fired by the Chargers (supposedly because he refused to run and always wanted to 'light up the scoreboard'). Sounds like good news for Eagles Wrs. Not much else changed in the offense other than adding Barkley, but Hurts hasn't throw much to Rbs anyway. Brown scored 11 Tds in '22, but that dipped last year along with his average reception (was 17.0). So how will the new pass-happy coordinator effect Brown? Seems like a lock for another top 10 finish with potential for another top 5. ............................................................................... 7) Garrett Wilson ADP 1.10. Played 17 games, 168 tar - 95 rec, 1,042 yds (11.0 avg), 11 deep rec, 3 Tds. Finished 26th last year with 213.2 pts or 12.5 per game. Was 21st in '22. Everything came crashing down with Rogers going out game 1. Fans still haven't seen "the amazing talent" Wilson supposedly possesses in his first two years, but both seasons are attributed to atrocious Qb play. Now with Rogers healthy (assuming he stays healthy), will we finally be amazed? Who knows, but good lord the volume. If Rogers throws to him 168 times, I'd certainly expect a top 10 finish. There is the slight possibility that the Jets are just too good. Great defense, solid running game with a RB who catches a ton... and Rodgers known to milk the clock. Big leads, rushing, and clock killing isn't great for Wr stats. But it's a long season. This feels like a leap of faith, but I'm willing to take the leap. 8)) Puka Nacua ADP 1.11. Played 17 games, 160 tar -105 rec, 1,486 yds (14.2 avg), 25 deep rec, 6 Tds. Finished 4th last year with 298.5 pts or 17.6 per game. Not much changed in L.A. but Kupp should be healthy to start the season - who didn't look right all year and now he's 31 yo. Kupp missed the first four games last year, but while playing together Nacua's average points per game was slightly lower at 15.6. So was Puka's rookie year a flash in the pan or a sign of things to come? Rams coach Sean McVay seems to have a way of scheming players open and force feeding them the ball as he did with Kupp for years and Nacua last year. Stafford clearly has a rapport with him and he's shown he can handle the work. No outcome wouldn't shock here... a dip to 20th, or a Kupp-like season finishing top 3. Considering what he did last year... I'm inclined to agree with this ADP. 9) Devante Adams ADP 2.03. Played 17 games, 175 tar - 103 rec, 1,144 yds (11.1 avg), 13 deep rec, 8 Tds. Finished 10th last year with 265.4 pts or 15.6 per game. Was 3rd in '22 and 2nd in '21. Last year the Raiders had Qb's O'Connell and Garoppolo. Garoppolo is out, and in comes Minshew. O'Connell played 10 games with Adams last year in which he averaged 14.9 points per game. Raiders added Brock Bowers at Te who's supposedly a "generational Te talent" (two years in a row Raiders drafted early Te - 2nd rd Mayer '22). Who knows how much Bowers affects Adams volume, though might remove some pressure. O'Connell was a rookie last year and should theoretically improve, but nobody knows if Minshew or O'Connell starts the season. Amazing Adams hasn't demanded a trade as this garbage isn't what he signed up for. Regardless, Adams is now 31 yo (turns 32 in Dec) but is (was) one of the elite Wrs. Pure volume (175 tar) didn't result in many big plays, but did equate to a 10th place finish last year. It's anyone's guess how much volume he gets this year, if Qb play improves, if age takes a toll, or if Bowers changes the situation... this is a tough nut to crack. Way too much uncertainty for me to invest such early draft capital. .............................................................................................. 10) Marvin Harrison Jr. ADP 2.04. The 4th overall draft pick out of Ohio State was the first Wr selected in '24. He's supposedly way more athletic than his father, with all the receiver skills NFL teams want. Selected by the Cardinals who weren't good last year and aren't supposed to be very good this year (6.5 o/u win total). Kyler Murray has never surpassed 4,000 passing yards in his five year career and his passer rating isn't great (ranked 20th last year). Considering all that... Wr 10? Even if the kid is amazing - which nobody really knows yet at the NFL level, the ADP seems incredibly optimistic. Maybe he finishes top 20... maybe. Top 10? God bless anyone who does take that leap and it works out. I won't be sharing that glory.

That's probably the best thing to say about Zeke: 50+ receptions and 5+ Tds guarantees at least 30th. What I can't figure is what are the Cowboys gonna do if he's only averaging 3.5 ypc? Are they really giving 175+ carries to a Rb who's that inefficient? His metrics last year were unspeakably bad. Maybe a better o-line helps along with defenses respecting the passing game, but still we're talking about a 29 yo Rb with mega millage. Even his last year in Dallas ('22) the metrics weren't great. To make matters worse, he had a pass-blocking grade of 31.7 last year - career low. Makes ya wonder if he'll even be on the field on 3rd downs. If Zeke looks lifeless in training camp, I think there's a strong chance Cowboys make a trade... they have four 5th round draft picks next year.