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Everything posted by GobbleDog
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I've tried to justify reasons why Foreman might be a worthwhile last-pick-of-draft flyer. Analyzed stats, contracts, situations... in the end, even if Foreman did steal the job, here comes Chubb who probably never gets back to anything reliable fantasy wise. Sucks because this is a Kevin Stefanski team - just run it baby! Ultimately I probably won't invest in any Browns player. Watson has been an unmitigated disaster which hurts everyone's value (including Cooper and Njoku), on top of the confusing Rb situation. What a hot mess. The Browns might be decent with their stout defense, but fantasy wise it's a tough nut to crack.
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Browns Rb situation reminds me of the Chargers. Teams destined to run, but noone great to do it. Ford didn't impress with his 4.0 ypc last year. Doesn't seem built for work-horse. So the Browns signed D'onte Foreman who's been fairly effective in recent years. Chubb didn't even start running on his rebuilt knee until April (same knee he tore in college), which is bit surprising considering the injury happened in Week 2. So a little red flag there. The way I see it playing out... Ford splits with Foreman until Chubb is ready. Then they all split, because they won't just hand Chubb his old workload on that knee. Sprinkle in a little Nyheim Hines for good measure and it's a fantasy cluster. Sucks because they all have dirt cheap adps and the Browns are going to run.
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Shows commitment to running game. Bowers will do his share of run-blocking and has skills for it. That 2nd rounder out of Oregon is a run-block specialist. Throw in a 3rd rd lineman and free-agents... o-line should be stout. Again with the "bad team = worthless Rb" theory. I don't buy it and even I did, I expect the Raiders to be way more competitive. Can't wait for this season to get going... I got a whole lot of crowing to do! Or eat crow. One or the other.
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Half. Would've been 4 out of 6, but Conner missed four games (had 208 carries). Redskins didn't do it because Brian Robinson missed two games, they had 3 Rbs sharing carries, and a whopping 20% of all passes went to Rbs. Chargers split backfield and Ekler had 74 targets on top of his 179 carries. Why can't we compare White to Henry and Barkley? Those teams committed to bell-cow work, even though the Rbs finished with just 4.1 and 3.9 ypc respectively. Seems like a perfect comparison. I'm not seeing the implied correlation between bad teams and limited carries for the lead Rb. I'm more concerned with a team's commitment to bell-cow usage and no real rushing competition - not even from the Qb. Even if teams are losing late in games, might that just mean more Rb receptions? Bad team = worthless Rb ... too simplistic.
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"12 carries per game" ... Really low estimate with Antonio Pierce as coach - president of the bell-cow conservation society. Went on record about wanting his back hitting "the magic number of 20 carries". Coached the final nine games as interim with lead back averaging 20.4 carries. White averaged 21 per game with Jacobs out. Raiders beefed up o-line spending a 1st rd pick on Te, then a 2nd and 3rd on linemen, and signed a free-agent center. "Non-factor in passing game" ... White averaged over 3 targets per game with Jacobs out. Jacobs himself averaged over 4 targets per game. Players like Gus Edwards/Travis Henry are non-factors in the passing game. Averaging 3 to 4+ targets per game isn't. "they win 5 games" ... I'd bet over 6.5, but who knows (won 8 last year... defense allowed 9th fewest points, and offense could surprise with improved o-line, better qb play, and phenom Bowers as Te). Losing isn't great for Rbs, but not the death nail either. Barkley finished 9th in ppg, Connor finished 13th ppg, Brian Robinson finished 16th ppg. Those guys played for teams with 6 or fewer wins. In 2022, Raiders only won 6 with Jacobs finishing 3rd ppg.
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I don't like any of 'em other than Chase. But back to the point - I like Metcalf's Wr 20 adp. "Geno Smith" is why he's so cheap and I think that's a mistake.
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Wrs who finished top 15 with bad Qbs. Geno doesn't need pro-bowl stats for Metcalf to out-perform adp.
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To hell with Geno. Elite Qb play isn't necessary to vault Wrs to the top 20. Pedestrian will do. Last year: D.J. Moore 8th Chase 10th - without Burrow half the season D. Adams 11th Pittman 13th Thielen 15th Td's are fluky. I'll take the volume of red-zone targets all day.
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That's the point - if Geno doesn't rebound, it's still a solid pick. If he does rebound (and there's reason to be optimistic he will)... value.
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DK Metcalf career finishes rookie to present wks 1-17 ppr: 32, 7, 14, 16, 19 26 yo Alpha Wr who was targeted 20 times inside the 15-yd line last year - second only to Ceedee Lamb (21) and tied with Tyreek Hill. Seattle has a new o-coordinator from Huskies who ran a fast-tempo offense with big passing stats. Current adp... Wr 20. He's supposed to do worse than last year's disappointing season? Seems like an incredibly safe pick with big upside.
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New Hampshire -vs- Central Michigan Al Bundy once scored 4 Tds in a single game at Polk High! Seriously though Laube carried that New Hampshire team all year and did have a high RAS score (9.2) at the combine. If Zamir gets injured, I'll take a waiver on Laube over worthless Mattison.
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Not cutting Miles Sanders after June 1st could indicate otherwise. They also signed old Rashaad Penny who played for the coach in Seattle. Even if Brooks is ready from the start, I doubt he gets a full workload right off the bat. They'll probably ease him in. Brooks current 10th rd adp looks great right now considering what he might be doing by mid-season... but the hype train is just starting. By late August he could very well be 6th+- rd depending on preseason. Which might be higher than I'm willing to pay considering he won't get the full work all season, re-injury risk, and with Carolina finishing dead last offensively last year.
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Never had the entire off-season to prepare as full time starter... perennial back-up for 5 years. Yet a career passer rating of 90.2. Had some good games last year. From what I hear, the rookie Te Brock Bowers is about to idiot-proof whoever is the Raiders qb is. Adams is still there. If Minshew starts as I suspect he will, I bet he surprises.
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From the way scouts talk about him... good lord. Sounds like a beast. Last two years at FSU, Benson finished #1 out of 226 qualified Rbs in forced missed tackles per attempt. Once he breaks into the second level, his size and speed come into play which created so many explosive runs. Stud of an athlete and multi-skilled - motions out to slot and displays high-level receiver skills. As a receiver, Benson was in the 86th percentile in forced missed tackles per reception. He can sell play action and work his way through the line of scrimmage to get open. Relatively low-millage thanks to FSU's coach not working players to dust. Obviously the problem is James Connor who's coming off the greatest season of his career. But he's 29 yo and the Cards are going to want to kick the tires on their offensive weapon. I'm guessing they split carries pretty evenly til mid-season. Then it becomes Benson's backfield.
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Without looking, I wouldn't have guessed Love finished with the 2nd most passing Tds (32) and 4th most Tds overall (36). I knew he had a good year, but not that good. Impressive. It's hard debating Qb value because scoring systems are so different: 3 pt -vs- 6 pt passing Tds, yardage bonus's, completion pts (yes, that's a thing). Love doesn't run much and his 4 rushing Tds last year is rare for Qbs with 50 or fewer rushes, so that probably drops a bit. But the passing Tds? Nothing would surprise - he's shown he's capable of 30+, but has only done it once and the Packers don't have the greatest Wrs or Te. Overall probably good value, but not on my radar.
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Absolutely. But in games he doesn't score... 43 yds, 0 rec, and a cloud of dust. Gonna be some clunkers. But for a 10th round pick, I'll take the random Tds as a spot start. And hope he magically finds the fountain of youth.
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Look what sheer volume did for R. White and Etienne last year... neither particularly skilled or on high-scoring teams. Jacobs finished Rb 3 in '22 on a rather pathetic Raiders team with insane volume. Who are these "decent backs" behind White you speak of? Surely not 26 yo Alexander Mattison who hasn't broken 4 ypc in three years? Or 31 yo journeyman Ameer Abdullah? Or 6th rd rookie out of New Hampshire Dylan Laube? Please... this is White's backfield. I also think the Raiders are going to be better than expected. Minshew might look like a 70's porn star, but he actually had several decent games last year. They still have Adams, Meyers, and if Te Brock Bowers is half as good as scouts are touting, they'll be moving the ball. I'm not projecting White into the top 10, but he's definitely got a shot which is incredible for a 7th rd pick. Like Al Davis says "Just volume baby!"
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Zamir White not getting enough love. "Raiders suck and Minshew is Qb... no thanks" - I get it. Coach Antonio Pierce loves bell-horses and work-cows... whatever. As interim last year he talked about wanting his Rb (then Jacobs) to get the "magic number of 20+ carries per game." He followed through on that claim. New o-coordinator from Chicago is also committed to the run. Raiders invested in their o-line with a free-agent center and using 2nd and 3rd rd picks on lineman, not to mention a 1st rounder on Te Bowers. White (4th rd out of Georgia) had four starts while Jacobs was out last year and his carries... 17, 22, 20, 25 - along with 13 targets. Had 7 runs of 10+ yds in those games. Dude has some burst. His only competition - Alexander Mattison who's done virtually nothing his forgettable five-year career. Barring injury White should easily surpass 250 carries and could very well get 300+, along with a sizable chunk of receptions. And he gets all the goal line work. We're talking about a 7th round pick.
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Harbaugh did personally select him (albeit 6th rd), and supposedly that bowling ball - low to ground running style is what he likes. Scouts say Vidal is a decent receiver, but didn't do it much at Troy as that wasn't their game. Finished #2 in forced missed tackles among Rbs last year. Might take over the top spot by out-performing, or pure necessity due to injuries... both seem reasonably possible.
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Coach Harbaugh - known for pounding the ball, of course hires o-coordinator Greg Roman who from '19 to '22 made Baltimore a top five rushing team every season. Chargers lose both top receiving options and basically have no Te worth mentioning. So one thing is quite clear - the Chargers are going to run, run, and run some more. In comes 29 yo injury plagued Gus Edwards with a pathetic 30 total receptions over a 5-year career. I was thrilled to get Edwards off waivers after Mitchell went down last year and immediately Youtubed Gus's highlights. Color me disappointment. Plods forward until touched, then falls down. And those were the "highlights." Next... JK Dobbins who had ACL/LCL tears in '21, and then the dreaded Achilles tear last year - death nail for Rbs. Signed a dirt cheap 1-year contract (paltry $50k guaranteed). Might not make the team if doesn't impress in training camp. Next... 6th rd pick out of Troy - bowling ball Kimani Vidal. What a maddening situation. A team guaranteed to run the hell out of the ball, with nobody great to tote the rock. Out of principle I'll have to draft Gus if he actually falls to 9th/10th rd, but I won't be proud of it. Rather hoping to get Vidal with the last pick of the draft.
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Looks more like "random distribution" to me. 4 of the top five came from rounds 3 to 15. Only 2 first-round Rbs actually finished top ten, and just one (McCaff) lived up to expectation as Henry was Rb5. Rb variance makes it too risky to invest my most valuable draft capital. I prefer Quantity later, over Quality early. Shotgun middle-rounds and see which one's turn into gems. Preserve early picks for more predictable positions.
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Where last year's top 15 Rb's (Weeks 1-17 ppr) were actually drafted: 1) McCaff 1st rd pick 4 9) Kamara 4th rd pick 48 2) Etienne 3rd rd pick 29 10) Henry 1st rd pick 10 3) Mostert 10th rd pick 111 11) J. Cook 5th rd pick 54 4) Hall 4th rd pick 46 12) B. Robinson 1st rd pick 8 5) K. Williams 15th rd pick 169 13) Pacheco 7th rd pick 76 6) R. White 4th rd pick 47 14) Ford 17th rd pick 199 7) Mixon 2nd rd pick 20 15) Pollard 1st rd pick 12 8)) Gibbs 3rd rd pick 31 Der's gold out there. Just have to mine it.
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Pick 57) Kenneth Walker - out-carried Charbonnet by a large margin and got bulk of goal line. O-line not great, but can't have everything at this point. Pick 62) Aaron Jones - really good, while healthy. Receptions help consistency. Pick 65) Rhamondre Stevenson - great bounce-back candidate. Patriots gave fat 4-year deal. Expect heavy workload and all goal line. Pick 71) David Montgomery - 12th in pts per game. Gibbs was 7th. I'll take the huge discount. Pick 75) Zamir White - One my favorites and probably reach early. Vegas coach on record about love for work-horse backs. Pick 89) Raheem Mostert - second highest scoring Rb with 21 Tds. Not again, but... half? 10+- Tds, 200+- carries and some receptions. Pick 89.?. Insane. Pick 95) Zack Moss - look what Bengals volume did for washed up Mixon. I don't believe in Chase. Pick 105) Devin Singletary - Crappy team, but work-horse with no competition. Metrics pretty good. Pick 111) Johanthon Brooks - torn acl worries, but if/when healthy could contend for OROY given sick talent. Pick 121) Gus Edwards - never thought Edwards was special, but he's getting paid, it's pick 121 and lead back for Harbaugh. ................................... Lotto - Pick 135) Trey Benson, Pick 146) Kendre Miller, Pick 155) Jaleel McLaughlin, Pick 226) Kimani Vidal
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Don't think you can go wrong with any of them. It's the next "tier" of Wrs that worries me... Adams, Harrison, Olave, London, Pittman. I prefer London, but talk about a leap of faith. None of those guys feel safe.
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Stout defense, great o-line, solid running game... not a cluster. Admittedly nobody knows how good or bad Rodgers will be post-injury. Zach Wilson was horrendous, yet Wilson finished Wr 23. Volume goes a long way in ff... 147 targets rookie year, 168 targets last year. Even a mediocre Rodgers should easily produce Wr 10+-. If Rodgers has a good to great year, top 5 is possible.