GobbleDog

In early rounds, it's a lot easier to pick the right Wr than the right Rb.

That's not math. I get preferring an early pick if ya want one of the big three - McCaff, Hall, or Bijan. But I don't draft Rbs early.

I prefer late over early. In PPR, two reliable stud Wrs to start would be my strategy. In your situation I'd be looking at Wilson-Nacua. Too many good Rb options available in rds 5 though 9, to risk my early picks on the most unreliable position in ff.

As someone who doesn't draft early-round Rbs, I'm always scouting mid- and late-round Rb gems and naturally Swift is one I want to like given the low adp. The more I look at the situation, the less I like it. The time share is just too much. The Bears invested 4th rd draft capital into Roschon and likely won't give up on him after a lackluster rookie season. Herbert has been solid for two straight years. Bears coach didn't mind using time-share last year, though they do have a new o-coordinator out of Seattle who gave Walker the bulk over Charbonnet, but no telling how he splits it up between three Rbs. Roschon got most goal line work last year, so who knows where that ends up. At least the Qb isn't known for rushing Tds. Swift is known for receptions, but Roschon had 34 last year and Herbert had 20 despite missing five games. Even if Swift cuts into some of that the Bears still have lots of other great receiving options between Moore, Allen, Odunze, and Kmet. Considering that, hard to imagine Swift getting more than 40 this year. Then there's the injury concern as Swift has missed a few games in every season he's played. I've read the reason the Bears signed Swift was simply because they had a ton of cap space and they're only locked in for two years, despite a 3-year deal. He's an effective Rb and will probably help the Bears win games, but fantasy-wise the situation isn't ideal.

I've read scouts say Worthy is actually a decent route-runner. The knock is too many drops from lack of concentration or "body-catching" due to the short catch radius. Maybe some of that can be coached out of him.

That was my thought, til I knew about Bucky's poor athleticism and small stature. We'll see if he can translate that elusiveness he had in college to the NFL, but it doesn't seem promising.

All-time fastest 40-yd dash in NFL combine history... 2024 Xavier Worthy 4.21 Olympic track star speed. Problem is virtually none of the fastest Wrs in the NFL have fared well. It's like they've perfected speed, but lack other skills to be successful at the NFL level like route-running, tackle-breaking, rebounding, catching, etc. Maybe Worthy will be the exception, but that remains to be seen. My guess is he returns kick-offs/punts and has a couple spike receiving games during the season, but not a reliable starter.

I meant to say "3rd rd feels like good value". If he somehow fell that far, I'd be hard pressed to pass him up. But unlikely I'll face that dilemma as he'll go 2nd round. Even though I won't draft Rbs that early, I can't argue with those who do take Williams 2nd rd. It's reasonable.

Listened to a college scouting guru about Bucky today - at the combine he listed as 5'9" and 192 lbs (ESPN shows 5'10" 195 lbs, whatever - small dude). His RAS (Relative Athletic Score) was 3.7. For comparison: Jaylen Wright (9.8), Trey Benson (9.8), Blake Corum (8.5). Bucky's 40-yd dash was 4.55 ... not terrible, not fast. His vertical jump - dead last out of the 22 Rb participants at 29.5". Broad jump second to last. As the guru said "Bucky Irving couldn't jump over a $2 bill." He was fairly elusive at Oregon and has some receiving skills, but it surprised some he was even drafted after the combine performance. The guru I heard thought the only job he's suited for at the NFL level is receiving work. Given his small stature and poor athleticism, I wonder if he can even pass block. He's clearly no threat for goal line work, and doesn't sound like much of a threat to many of White's carries, but maybe some receptions. Gotta wonder why the Bucs even drafted him.?. Strange.

Packers did make him the 4th highest paid Rb so they’ll want some return on that. We’ll see how much he can take and if last years’s decline was an aberration due to Vegas being so bad, or a sign of a cooked Rb.

You, me and everyone in the biz. Weird.

Yeah, but that seems like the outlier, not the norm. Murray started 19 total games over the past two years…24 passing Tds to show for it. Terrible ratio and consistent with his poor passer rating. Coincidentally he signed his ridiculous contract prior to the ‘22 season. We’re talking about the guy who had a no playing video games while watching film clause put in his contract and once said “I was blessed with the cognitive skills to just go out there and just see it before it happens. I’m not one of those guys that’s going to sit there and kill myself watching film. I don’t sit there for 24 hours and break down this team and that team and watch every game because, in my head, I see so much.” Shorty doesn’t seem to see much over the middle and rarely ever checks to his third read.

It’d be interesting to see analysis of Rb’s with 550+ carries over two years and how they fair the next season. My guess is not great and probably miss games. Jacobs has only played five years and already amassed over 1,500 touches. Lloyd was likely drafted as insurance and to compete with Dillon (who’s been ineffective) as #2. I’m not loving the adp’s or situations of any Packers back.

110 receptions would be a rookie record. McBride was force fed targets partly out of necessity with Wr injuries and finished with an ADOT of just 6 yds. Harrison runs deeper routes which requires qb skills. Murray’s passer rating was 20th last year and 23rd the year prior - he’s never eclipsed 4,000 yds (not much nowadays) - not even on pace in shortened seasons. No Murray Wr has ever had double digit Tds… most was 8 by Hopkins in ‘21.

If Harrison finishes as #10+- wr it would be an absolutely incredible year. So where’s the upside? Nobody really believes he could do much better than that. And where’s the floor…. 25th or so? Lower? A late 2nd/early 3rd rd pick? We’re in uncharted territory here. No rookie wr has ever been drafted this high. I believe Harrison is as good as hyped, but he’s got a lot to overcome - rookie wr, Kyler Murray’s unimpressive passing stats, and a bad Cards team. There’s much safer options at that adp range.

I agree with this. Barring injury or hold-out, hard to foresee Lamb finishing outside top 10. Same coaches, same qb, same system. I don’t think Lamb finishes 1st again as that took a career season from Dak, insane volume and 14 total Lamb Tds (2 were rushing). Doubt all that comes together again, which is why I rank Lamb behind Hill and Chase, but I’d be happy with any of them - all idiot proof. The 1st rd WR pick is easy (early/mid/late) can’t go wrong. It’s the 2nd rd Wr’s that make me nervous.

That’s fair. Correction “fans still haven’t seen the amazing fantasy output he supposedly posses.” I agree with those who think Rodgers may not be nearly as good as some hope after the injury/lost season/age. But with Wilson’s talent, it shouldn’t take an MVP type Rodgers to finish in or near top 10. Just competent will do. And if Rodgers does have another great season left in him.… sky’s the limit. Solid pick IMO.

Williams is about to turn 24 yo. In other post someone was raving about all the Tds 29 yo Zeke had four years ago in Dallas. I'm inclined to believe a soon-to-be 24 yo still has it. Old man Zeke... good luck.

K Williams is really good. Corum is supposed to be good. The unknown touches split is the crux of the Kyrem draft pick and nobody knows where it'll end up. Given McVay's historical committee Rb systems and willingness to force feed the hot hand - even rookies (Puka), I understand the trepidation. Based on last year's sick metrics, I still like the 3rd round investment on Williams, but odds are he'll be gone by then. Somebody else will get (what I consider) a solid Rb who was 2nd in points per game last year. Currently RB 8.

He was definitely "an every down back" last year... on the field for 70% or more snaps in 10 out of 12 games. Week 3... 100%, Weeks 13 & 17... 94%. Rushing attempts, short yardage, goal line duty, receptions - did it all. I think what you really mean is McVay doesn't want him to have to be the every down back. McVay ran Todd Girley into dust and probably learned a valuable lesson on over-worked Rbs. After Girley retired, the Rams played a damn near even backfield between Akers/Henderson in '20, then Michael/Henderson in '21, and Akers/Henderson again in '22. Last year was the anomaly and many think McVay did it out of pure necessity with old Royce Freeman being the Rams next best Rb. So they drafted Corum to add some depth and McVay will probably lighten Kyren's load a bit ... but maybe not nearly as much as years past - Kyren Williams is just so damn good. His metrics were unbelievable. I think we're looking at a 66% - 33% split. Which is good enough to justify a 3rd rounder on Kyren in my mind. And I'm usually opposed to drafting Rb's early. But 3rd feels right for Kyren.

Didn't even realize he was talking dynasty. Yeah over-spending on McCaff is probably a bad strategy. Probably better to spend the big bucks on young Wrs like Wilson, London, Harrison, etc.

If your the Dolphins coach and get to the goal line, who's number you calling? 188 lb Achane who's shown to be somewhat brittle or 205 lb Mostert who's proven to be effective around the goal line? Achane will score from distance, and get a few with receptions, but probably not much goal line work. "14 to 15 Tds"? I'd be surprised. He blew up Week 3, but after that he played eight full games (not counting his 1 carry game) and a playoff game... had 4 total Tds. Nearly a half a Td per game is decent, but still won't get him to 14. I think it's way more of a time-share than Achane drafters would like to believe.

It did turn out well for McCaff. Could be argued the Niners Qb wasn't vulturing goal lines and McCaff's metrics were better coming in... but definitely similar in terms of a huge upgraded team. Interesting everyone is so divided on Barkley. Most fantasy players have fairly similar feelings on the high-ranked players. Not Barkley, great value - vs- terrible pick. Not much in between. Gonna be interesting to see where the chips fall.

Thank you voice of reason.

I wouldn't try to talk anyone out of McCaff early... #1 two straight years. I wouldn't take the risk, but understandable why many do. Auction or regular - my Rb advice is draft quantity in mid- to late-rounds, over quality in early rounds. I don't want to invest my most valuable draft capital, in the least predictable/highest volatility position. Most top ranked Rbs last year didn't finish top 10 ... even though there were relatively few major injuries other than Chubb. Rb's who actually did finish top 10 generally came out of rounds 3-5... lowest was Mostert in rd 10. Der's gold in dem dar hills, just have to mine it.