GobbleDog

Read the same... all getting snaps with the first team. This quote sounds like they've all been told they'll be using committee Rb's all season. “We haven’t done a running back by committee here so I’m not sure with how it will all go,’’ Rico Dowdle said after Monday’s practice. “But expectations for myself are to do more than I did last year, whatever that may be."

I'd read the Niners didn't want to sign both Aiyuk and Samuel to monster contracts, and were hoping to make a final decision at season's end. If the Steelers trade falls through and he plays the final year in San Fran, he's gonna want to ball-out to increase free agent value. What happens if the volume he wants isn't there? Diva time, disgruntled, or just accepts it? Could be awkward.

Pickens adp is currently Wr 26-28 range. If he goes to Niners, people will expect Aiyuk -ish numbers. His adp probably won't rise to Aiyuk's Wr 14, but definitely higher than it is now. I'd guess Wr 20+-.

I wasn't sure myself when I started this thread - just did it to bs about anything fantasy football. But the more numbers I crunch and think about this situation, I'm really liking Harris at that low adp. Not many Rb's staring at 250+ carries available that late in the draft and he's in a great situation. Admittedly Warren's metrics were off the charts last year... impressive, but gonna be tough to repeat.

If I get the #1 pick - Tyreek Hill. McCaff would have to fall to 5th. Hall and Bijan even later. Which ain't happening in any draft in the world. Early draft capital is too valuable to bet on bit-coin. Might pay off, but it's a risky investment.

My total guess is Steelers coaches might think he's a one-trick pony. Great at catching bombs, but not the best route runner which was a knock on him out of college. When I watch video on him, noticed not much zigging and zagging. Either headed straight up-field or does a quit turnaround to catch the ball. But I'm no scout.

Be interesting to see analysis of how Rbs fair after 650+ touches over two years. I have a sneaky suspicion it ain't good. The recent two that come to mind... McCaffrey himself totaled 731 touches in '18 and '19... missed 13 games in '20. Derrick Henry totaled 718 touches in '19 and '20.... missed 9 games in '21.

If he is included, then it's rather telling of what the Steelers think of Pickens - still on a rookie contract playing for peanuts in '24 and '25.

To be fair, Harris was Rb 27 (wk 1-17). Including week 18 messes up the comparison as playoff-bound Rbs don't all play that week, or lightly used. Playoff teams also rest defensive starters as was the case when Steelers played Ravens week 18... Harris had 133+ yds, 5 rec, and a Td. Harris was Rb 34 (wk 1-17) in point per game, mainly due to some real clunkers to start the season. But hell, nothing goes right with Rudolph/Pickett at Qb.

I was wondering if Pickens is part of the trade deal. If not, it has to badly hurt his value as the 2nd banana on a run-first offense.

Seems in recent years... fewer and fewer starters are playing pre-season games. It all started with the Rams hiring Sean McVay who hated his starters playing pre-season games and proved they could just roll into the season ready to go. Most teams are starting to follow suit. Doubt coaches or starters get much out of it anyway. Can't blame them.

At least he'll get the bulk of targets there, I'll give ya that.

Could be argued McCaff only played half a season in '22 and Deebo/Kittle missed some games. Aiyuk obviously could outperform his Wr 14 adp considering he was Wr 12 last year (wk 1-17) - Wr 13 in ppg. Just doesn't seem like much upside. If he's insanely efficient again... Wr 10 to 15. If he's not, then possibly much lower. Purdy had a mind-boggling passer rating of 113.0 last year which partly explains how Aiyuk was so efficient on all those deep passes. Can Purdy keep it up too? Think I'd rather draft a Wr in that adp range who likely gets the bulk of team targets.

Najee's adp starting his rookie year: 2021) Rb 11 2022) Rb 5 2023) Rb 9 2024) Rb 25 If there was ever a time to buy-low, this is it. He doesn't need 300 carries; better efficiency with the 250 he had last year would justify that adp. Considering how much the Steelers invested in their o-line and Smith's successful running schemes, he's in a great situation to succeed - Warren be damned.

Aiyuk had 105 targets last year (to be fair missed a game). Only four teams had their top receiving option finish with fewer targets - Patriots 79, Giants 79, Denver 90, Packers 96. Obviously the reason being San Fran has a lot of mouths to feed between Aiyuk, Samuel, McCaff, Kittle, second stringers, and now their new 1st rd rookie Wr Pearsall. Credit Aiyuk for making the most out of those targets and being so efficient despite a crazy high adot. So if he stays in San Fran, can he repeat? I wouldn't bet on it at Wr 14+-. Too many solid Wrs at that adp with considerably less target competition. If he goes to run-first Cleveland with worthless Watson, I'd want a steep adp discount, which I doubt I'd get. So regardless if he's traded or stays, think I'm out on Aiyuk.

That's interesting. For the record Marino also tore his plant foot. My gut says Achilles injuries won't effect Qb stats much. But with only 1 sample size, who knows.

Doug's 12-team ppr draft through 6 rounds... 1) Wr Wilson 2) Rb Gibbs 3) Te Kelce 4) Rb Jacobs 5) Wr McLaurin 6) Rb Conner

Too late. I already took it to the bank. Don't understand the love for Samuel. Career slot guy who's never done anything notable in his 7 years. All of a sudden, he's gonna be good?

Hope he's healthy enough by draft day for one of my competitors to risk an early pick on him. I sure as hell won't.

"The eight felony charges — six of collision involving bodily injury, one of collision involving serious bodily injury, one of aggravated assault — do not include charges for leaving the scene of an accident involving injury. Those could still be coming." https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/nfl-continues-to-monitor-felony-case-against-rashee-rice Dang, had no idea he was facing so many charges. Figured a 3 or 6 game suspension, but if he's convicted on the whole lot... maybe a full season.?. Whatever suspension, sounds like it'll happen next year.

I was interested in Coleman who I believe finishes with the most receiving Tds simply due to rebounding ability and lack of Wr competition. Was hoping to draft him in double digit rounds... unfortunately he goes 7th or 8th in most mocks. More than I'm willing to pay, because receptions/yardage is a total mystery. Have no interest in any of the other Wrs. Not much in Kincaid either at his adp, because I worry Knox isn't officially dead.

I recently learned the Chargers 7th round pick this year - Brenden Rice... is Jerry Rice's son. Not that he's gonna amount to anything fantasy wise this year, just didn't realize the connection. Marvin Harrison and Jerry Rice are back! Wonder if Steve Largent had any kids.?.

I'm not overly interested either, but for the sake of discussion... what if Harris was guaranteed 300 carries this year.?. That'd do it for me. Gotta love volume. With Smith as coordinator, it's certainly possible. Especially with Harris on the last year of his contract. Might run him into the ground before spitting him out. Like the Raiders did with Jacobs.

Stats... Harris's Playerprofiler.com metric rankings weren't great... Yds per touch 46th, Yds created per touch 39th, Juke rate 22nd, Production Premium 42nd. Though surprisingly nice Breakaway Run Rate 10th. Some advanced Rb stats per Fantasypros.com... not too shabby. 23 Rbs had 200+ carries last year. Yards After Contact per Attempt... Harris tied for 2nd most (2.1). 1st was Hall (2.2), 23rd was Jacobs (1.3) Among those 23 Rbs.... Broken Tackles / Rushing Attempt... Harris had 2nd highest rate (11.7%). Highest was Conner (13.0%), Lowest was White (3.3%) Among all Rb's, Harris played against the 10th highest rate of stacked defenses boxes (27.5%). Hunt faced the highest rate (37.0%)`

Can't argue with 150 car, 3.3 ypc, or 30+ rec...... but "7-12 Tds" - ya lost me. He's a solid goal-line back... yeah, he was a solid goal line Rb in the 1920's. Pollard had better metrics and finished with 6 Tds. I get it - Td's are fluky. But that's the thing - he'll be Td dependent, and I can't expect many Td's and the few that come will be fluky. I'd rather draft a lotto pick rather than deal with "what the hell is Zeke gonna do this week?" At least a lotto pick might turn into something great. There's no greatness left in Zeke. It's over Johnny.