GobbleDog

I'm the guy who doesn't draft Rb's early... not til rounds 4 or 5, in a 12-teamer to boot. If anyone should be hyping Zeke, it's me. But I ain't. I can't. I think he's totally cooked. Metrics are garbage and have been for two years now. This has rbbc written all over it and good luck guessing which Rb has a semi-decent week or even finishes with most carries/touches by season end. Looking back at what Zeke did 2 or 3 years ago is meaningless for a 29 yo washed Rb. Wish he was a late round gem, because Lord knows I'll need 'em. But I don't see it. Rather take a shot on Benson in that adp range.

Makes sense as it's a contract year for Harris - Steelers declined his fifth-year option. One article I read speculated if his efficiency increased by just a smidge, he'd easily crack top 20 with all the volume. Steelers drafted o-lineman with their 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks which should help (1st rounder in '23 as well). And of course Arthur Smith calling plays. Smith used a maddening rotation in Atlanta, but before that at Tennessee in '19 and '20... Derrick Henry had 303 and 378 carries averaging 5.1 and 5.4 ypc. So which Harris shows up and how much volume does Arthur Smith give him? We shall see...

Warren's metrics were off the charts last year as one of the most elusive and efficient Rbs. If he wasn't so small, he'd be the backbone of any offense. But at 5'8" he's not built for that much work. Amazing he's only missed 1 game in two years. Have to say I'm not excited about either... just thought it was an interesting topic given their adp's are nearly identical. If I had to pick one, I'd take Harris with all the goal line work and 15+ carries per game. Might not be as consistent point wise as Warren with his receptions, but more durable at 6'2" and I'd expect a few more monster games.

Fun stats... thirty-five Wrs had 100+ targets last year. Among them catchable passes / targets: Highest... 1) Rice 85.3%, 2) Thielen 80.3%, 3) Lamb 79.0% ... notable Rice and Thielen had extremely low Air yard/Rec ratios. Lowest... 35) Hollywood 54.5%, 34) Hopkins 58.4%, 33) Wilson 61.3% ... that's some crappy Qb play. Average among the 35 Wrs was 69.7%. In 2022, 80.6% of Rodgers passes were charted as on target, ranking 2nd in the league.

Early picks help build good teams on the cheap. Browns haven't had a 1st round pick in three years, or a 2nd rd pick until this year. Watson's $64 mil hit accounts for 25% of their cap. It'll be the same in '25 and '26. Considering all that I'd be surprised if they sign Aiyuk to a monster long-term deal AND trade a 1st / 2nd pick. But maybe... we are talking about the team that made the worst trade and contract deal in the history of the NFL.

Jets defense was stout last year. With improved offense, they might be a playoff contender.

The Browns are still reeling from their last fleecing. For the first time in several years they finally own 1st and 2nd round picks. I'd be surprised if they gave them up.

Happily take him late 1st. I'm still soul searching, but currently like Wilson more than Jefferson and AJ Brown. Logic being I feel he's safer than Jefferson (hammy issue and unknown Qb play), and has more potential for a top 3 finish than Brown. I'm a little nervous about Rogers injury - less so than others, but willing to take the risk for the incredible upside.

Regular Season MVP Mahomes +500, Allen +800, Burrow +1000, Stroud +1000, Love +1400, Jackson +1500, Hurts +1600, Purdy +1600, Tagovalloa +2000, Prescot +2000 Offensive Player of the Year Hill +800, McCaffrey +900, Lamb +1000, Chase +1000, Jefferson +1000, Robinson +1600, St. Brown +2000, Hall +2000, Barkley +2000, Henry +3500 Offensive Rookie of the Year C. Williams +135, Harrison Jr. +650, Daniels +650, Worthy +1600, Nix +1600, Nabers +1600, McCarthy +2100, Maye +2500, Coleman +3000, McConkey +3000 Comeback Player of the Year Burrow +200, Rodgers +200, Cousins +430, Richardson +750, Chubb +1300, D. Jones +1600, Dobbins +2500, Herbert +3300, Watson +4000, Bosa +4500 https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl?tab=season-awards

Browns RB Donta Foreman was just carted off the field on a backboard. The injury occurred toward the end of punt period. Status unknown.

Here's what college scout guru Nystrom had to say about him: That kid rolls out of bed getting separation. He's open more than seven-eleven, as the kids say. And he's the inverse of Keon Coleman, who is the can't get separation guy, but gets downfield and out-jump you. Where as with McConkey, it's 'I'm separating from you and I'm going to make myself available to the quarterback right away.' I love this fit with the Chargers. McConkey became the wide receiver one on that team the moment the card was submitted. Now, of course, it's a run first offense. So they're going to run on early downs. But the thing is, and the reason that they were attracted to McConkey, it's not just to address their terrible wide receiver room. It's also because of the constitution of their entire offensive philosophy, which is, we get closer to the sticks on the early downs - then we need efficiency guys in order to convert those third downs. That is Ladd McConkey. He will get open. McConkey one on one and man coverage is shaking his dude, and then Herbert is hitting him on the hands and getting first downs. One of the craziest stats I pulled from this past draft class. Last season, more than 80% of balls that left the quarterback's hands which headed in McConkey's direction became receptions. I'm not even talking chartered as catchable. And this was not on the spoon fed targets that a guy like Corley got. McConkey's 12.2 adot was the exact same as Malik Nabers. Last season, McConkey finished with 3.26 yards per route run which was number four among FBS prospects in this class. People were tossing out "Oh, he's just a slot." No, he wasn't. At Georgia, he played 80% of his snaps on the boundary in a twelve-personnel offense. And hello, he's now going to a twelve-personnel offense under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. He's going to be an outside receiver. The guy I compared him to is Jordan Addison, and I think you're going to see a similar sort of deal. The efficiency thing, getting open and then he converts it. And by the way, 4.39 forty for the when they want to send him down the field a little bit. You can't just always be trying to play up on him, cause he can get around you, if defenses try to take that away and start jumping things.

Because in all likelihood it's Conner's last season in Arizona... free agent next year. That often means teams kick the tires to see if their new guy is the future. And there's a good chance Benson simply out-performs Conner and starts getting the bulk.

Death nail for Rbs, but I can't find much data on Qb's suffering a fully torn Achilles. All I found from Google is 1993 Dan Marino. Came back the next year and threw 4,400+ yds and 30 Tds. Though his next five years weren't very good. I think we're kind of in uncharted territory here. It'll be interesting to see how Rodgers and Cousins perform.

They're gonna be run-heavy for sure, but averaging 18 pass attempts per game would break records dating back to at least the 70's. Even Kaepernick threw 26 to 30 times per game with Harbaugh.

Recently read this interesting stat about last year: Collins was targeted 12 times on passes of 20+ yards... caught 11. Diggs was targeted 16 times on passes of 20+ yards... caught 4.

Giants o/u win total ... 6.5 I'd take the over. Not much over, but over. Won 6 last year with a horribly injury plagued team and went 4-3 in the final seven as players returned. The Qb play will be better, the o-line healthy, Nabers shows off, and defense got some help with 2nd/3rd rounders in draft. Jones isn't the best (bad last year in first 5 full games)... some of which could be attributed to wrecked o-line, but better than what the Giants had last year. In '22 Jones led Giants to 9-7-1.

Hands were a problem at TCU and apparently not great in training camp so far this year... but his 3 drops last year (4.5% of targets) gets a bit over-blown. Mainly because one cost the Chargers week 11 which would've kept them in playoff contention. He isn't shifty. Pro-Day cone drill was abysmal. Still, ya think his size and speed would make him a good deep threat. At the very least, a decoy to keep defenses honest.

Maybe not 200 carries with so many Rb's to feed, but even just 12 carries per gm totals 204, so maybe he does. Interesting stat: Mostert started 15 games last year - in the 11 wins Mostert averaged 14.5 carries per gm. In the 4 losses, he averaged 11.4 per gm. The playoff loss... 8 carries. Dolphins over/under wins is 9.5 this year. Even with a low estimate of 170+ carries, 1 or 2 rec per gm, all goal line work. Rb 26 ... I'm in.

Not really fantasy, but fun stats. 11 of 15 teams to allow 40 or fewer sacks made the '23 playoffs. Teams that didn't: Raiders (40), Falcons (40), Seahawks (38), Saints (35). Texans made playoffs with most sacks allowed (47). Fewest sacks allowed: Bills (24), Chiefs (28), Packers (30)... combined wins: 31 Most sacks allowed: Giants (85), Redskins (65), Panthers (65)... combined wins: 12 ............................................................................................................................................................ Highest paid o-linemen... $28m Sewell (Lions), $25m Tunsil (Texans), $23.5m Thomas (Giants) '24 highest ranked o-line per ProFootball Focus: 1) Lions, 2) Eagles, 3) Colts '24 lowest ranked o-line per ProFootball Focus: 32) Saints, 31) Seahawks, 30) Titans

I'm surprised. Assumed with Allen and Williams gone, Quentin would easily assent to 1st or 2nd Wr. But Chargers have a new Gm, coach, and o-coordinator, none have any loyalty to him. He's gotta earn it. Sounds like he hasn't, but it's still early in camp.

Annual contracts: Zeke - $1.25 mil, $375 k guaranteed Dowdle - $1.055 mill, $200 k guaranteed Freeman - $1.125 mill, $65 k guaranteed Vaughn - $915 k, $33 k guaranteed Jeesh... get what ya pay for. There's reports Freeman has looked good in camp, but what do they mean by 'good'? Better than stink.?. Man it's ugly.

Fanduel ... didn't check the odds against other sites, but probably similar.

In the five years Zac Taylor has been Bengals head coach... only once did his Rb finish with fewer than 210 carries. In '20 Mixon only played six games and still had 119 carries. Mike, I demand you increase Moss's carries! 169 is a slap in the face.

I'm stunned Kadarius Toney is still on the team. Thought he'd be the first on the chopping block.

July 29 update... And so it begins.