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Everything posted by GobbleDog
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At this point there's clearly nothing I can say to convince anyone. The Legendary Barkley with the high-powered Eagles is just too great. But just for fun, in New York Barkley had the advantage of being on the field all the time. His snap counts last year, which is similar to the year prior: 64%, 97%, 78%, 84%, 89%, 75%, 61%, 91%, 81%, 86%, 50%, 89%, 89%, 70%. Wanna see Swift? 29%, 75%, 54%, 63%, 62%, 57%, 68%, 70%, 65%, 64%, 64%, 42%, 51%, 59%, 57%, 47% Sanders had similar numbers. I can already hear yall.... "but this is Barkley and a new o-coordinator. They're going to feed him til he drops!" Really? Even though he's 27 yo with high-millage/injury history and might want to preserve for a playoff push? There's a lot of faith going on here - stays healthy (big one), hasn't lost a step (despite metrics to contrary), catches more passes than any Rb with Hurts before, has higher snap count than any Eagles Rb in recent history, and Hurts stops getting most goal line work. You're willing to risk an early 2nd round pick on all that?
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Try 15 rushing Tds last year. 13 Tds in '22 and 10 Tds in '21. Those 38 rushing Tds are the highest of any player in the NFL over the past three seasons. If Hurts doesn't get double digit rushing Tds this year, you get all the props in the world for calling it. I'm betting he does.
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I wasn't implying anyone should or shouldn't draft them. Just interesting metrics. Etienne doesn't have elite talent, but at least he showed he could handle the work. Some Rbs aren't built for workhorse duty (Jerome Ford ). 5'8" Jaylen Warren might not be suited for it. Interestingly, Najee Harris is 6'1" and with Arthur Smith in town, it looks like a maddening time share with Harris getting goal line and Warren receptions. Probably the same for Pollard and Spears. I wouldn't want to rely them, but decent for occasional spot starts. At least with Warren and Spears, the receptions and relief carries should help them be more consistent. Harris and Pollard will probably have a few more dud games where they don't score and only get 50+- rushing yds. I do expect White's carries to decline, with the Bucs drafting Bucky Irving in the 4th. Seemed like a clear message they weren't happy with White's inefficiency the past two years.
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80+ receptions for Kincaid looks like a given and possibly more. I worry about Tds with Allen running for so many, but not enough for me to fade him. I also like Pitts, Kittle and Ferguson. I'd be happy with any of them. For once, the Te position seems especially deep this year.
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Go back and look at where Russel Wilson's Te's finished the past few years even in Seattle. Not the worst, not the best... a lot like Muth.
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Looking through PlayerProfiler.com of Rb metrics last year. Key categories where most top fantasy Rbs finishers were consistently high (aside from pure volume stats) ... Fantasy Pts per Opportunity, True yac (discounts 10+ yd runs for more accurate measure), Yds per Touch, Juke Rate (elusiveness/evaded tackles), Yds created per Touch (yds beyond what was blocked or juked), Production premium (situational comparison of carries/targets play outcome to league average). Players like McCaff, Hall, Bijan, etc. ranked in top 15 in nearly all those, but some I didn't expect... Jaylen Warren ... fant pts per opp 0.88, true yac #6, yd per touch #7, juke rate #1, yds created per touch #3, prod prem #7. That's incredible. Tyjae Spears ... fant pts per opp 0.9, true yac #26, yd per touch #6, juke rate #4, yds created per touch #5, prod prem #10. Raheem Mostert... fant pts per opp 1.11, true yac #11, yd per touch #17, juke rate #7, yds created per touch #21, prod prem #8. Honorable mention to James Connor and Brian Robinson, who weren't quite as good, but better than expected. Biggest disappointments... Etienne and R. White - volume goes a long way in fantasy football. Food for thought.
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Achane finished with the 4th highest fantasy points per game (17.8). Among 50+ carry Rbs... he finished 1st in Yards after initial contact and 1st in Yards per carry. He's an electric player and his speed matches what the Dolphins want to do. But there's concern - Achane only played 11 games last year, with about 25% of his total production coming from one game - Week 3... (233 yds, 4 Tds). From the time he got rolling in Week 3 til the end of season (not including one game where he only had 1 carry), he averaged 11.2 carries per game, but that dropped later in the season to about 9 per game after Week 13. Seemed coach McDaniel was worried about him getting injured again. Even in the playoff game.. just 6 carries. He gets receptions, but not quite as much as you might expect... only averaged 2.8 rec per game during the nine games he was fully active. Playoff game - 3 receptions. To top it all off this is one crowded backfield... Mostert, Wilson, 4th round rookie Jaylen Wright (Achane speed clone - who was almost certainly drafted to spare Achane from overwork/re-injury as he's only 5'9 and 188 lbs.) Achane is currently ranked Rb 11. I don't understand it. You can get Rbs guaranteed to have 250-300+ touches at that range (Henry, Jacobs, Cook). Achane will have some highlights, but he won't get the volume you might expect at that price.
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Eagles had the 7th highest points per game last year (25.5) and 3rd highest in '22... (28.1). That's a train wreck offense.?. If I had to pick one player to disappoint more than any other this year, it's Barkley. Expectations are through the roof and I can already hear the end-year excuses: "if only he'd stayed healthy..." "if only they'd thrown more to him..." "if only Hurts hadn't vultured so many Tds..." "if only they hadn't used committee backfield..." and perhaps some honesty "well, maybe Barkley isn't the elite rb he used to be." I'm not drafting any Rbs in the early rounds, so I have no skin in this game. Just calling what I see. Barkley at Rb 6 has disappointment written all over it. I'll be the first to eat crow if I'm wrong, but I hope everyone knows the risk going in. If ya think I'm dead wrong and Barkley is a slam dunk/great pick... I'm cool with that too. I don't take anything personally.
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I'll give ya Barkley's receptions will probably be higher than Gibbs and Sanders... how much higher - debatable, but higher. I'll even give the benefit of doubt that Barkley's still an elite runner (I question, but whatever). However I won't budge an inch on Hurts stealing those goal line Tds. They have an unstoppable play. Unless they think Kelce's replacement can't do it, or the play just stops working... I'll have to see it to believe it. Which puts a hard cap on Barkley's value.
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Hurts stealing goal line work isn't a risk? Eagles not throwing much to Rb's in recent years isn't a risk? Barkley losing some skill at this point in his career isn't a risk? Nope, "just injury". We see things differently I guess.
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The guys I "gave you" were the last to play in that system, and they were both quite efficient (4.9 and 4.6 ypc). Barkley hasn't averaged 4.6 ypc in five years - and even if he does now with the upgraded o-line, how much better than 4.6 can he possibly get? Maybe Hurts will throw more to Rbs than he ever has in the past. Maybe, but that's not a given. Hurts will steal goal line work... that is a given. Then there's the age/millage concerns and Barkley's metrics weren't great last year - yds per carry, yds per touch, juke rate, evaded tackles, etc. all down from '22. "Not his fault - the Giants sucked." Ok, there might be some truth to that. The legend of Saquon Barkley going to the high-powered Eagles is making people fantasy stir crazy. I just think they're vastly under-estimating the risk.
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25 yo low-millage Sanders had that o-line and good team in '22... 17 gms - 259 car, 4.9 ypc, 20 rec, 11 Tds, and finished 13th. 24 yo low-millage Swift had that o-line and good team last year... 16 gms - 229 car, 4.6 ypc, 39 rec, 6 Tds, and finished 17th. Here comes 27 yo high-millage Barkley with injury history... and an ADP of Rb 6. At that price your betting your most valuable draft capital that he stays healthy all year and vastly outperforms the prior two Rbs, even though his '23 metrics weren't great. Anything can happen, but I wouldn't make that bet.
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Pollard only scored 6 Tds, with 252 carries and 55 rec. Yet Dallas was the highest scoring team last year.
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You may be on to something... Mooney recently signed a 3-year $39 mill deal with $26 mill guaranteed. The #2 banana for Cousins did well in Minnesota (Addinson). I need to look into this.
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Remember? I didn't even know it. Now that I look it up Dorsey was actually fired after Week 10, but that's interesting. Not sure it completely explains the drop-off, but makes ya wonder. Too bad the old coordinator isn't going with Diggs to Houston.
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Where's Devin Hester when ya need him? It'll be interesting to see how the rule change plays out. There were only 4 kick-off returns last year and 6 in '22. That rule change in 2011 really killed all the fun.
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The two most shocking things from the NFL draft - Falcons selecting Penix with the 8th pick, and Cowboys not drafting a Rb. Cowboys depth: Zeke, Dowdle, Vaughn, Freeman (yeah, Royce) Why didn't they sign Moss or Mixon, or make a trade, or draft a warm body? What the hell is Jerry Jones thinking? "Screw the running game - just throw it baby!" I've played with the numbers... Zeke gets xxx carries, xxx rec, xxx Tds. I can't figure a way to make it realistic and worthwhile. FF Mike's projection seems optimistic 186 car, 35 rec, 7 total Tds... though who can argue looking at that depth chart. Even then he'd still finish out of the top 25 - and that assumes he stays healthy. Seems what we'd really get with Zeke is a few spike weeks while he's on the bench. I give up. I'd rather draft some lotto ticket than a piece of the Cowboys backfield.
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Colelman had monster games against LSU and Clemson early before getting hurt, missed games, and played at less than 100%. Didn't help when FSU's Qb got hurt and was replaced by some god-awful Qbs. Closer look at stats... Coleman had 87 targets, of which only 55 were chartered as catchable because of horrendous Qb play. Of the 55 - Coleman caught 50, with 11 going for Tds. Another 28 went for 1st downs. Coleman isn't the fastest and doesn't get much separation, but he knows how to box out and come down with rebounds (former Michigan St basketball player). Allen is going to have a field day chucking it downfield to this kid. No Diggs, no Davis... only competition is journeyman Samuel and 5th rd pick out of Boise - slot wr Khalil Shakir who hasn't done much in two years. There's a reason the Bills spent their 33rd overall pick on Coleman - he fits with Allen perfectly and they plan on cashing in. Current ADP ... Wr 54.
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Nobody, if Richardson doesn't throw completions. Seriously though... Pittman likely gets target volume and with his skills is probably good for top 25ish. It's just Wr 12 that I question. That requires competent passing which nobody knows if Richardson posses yet. We know the Colts are going to be a run-first team. Even with Richardson missing 13 games, they still finished 11th highest rushing percentage. Baltimore was 1st of course with Jackson as Qb... and he's maintained a fairly high completion percentage (67.2% last year) - though mostly short Te throws. A run-first team with low completion rate doesn't sound great for Pittman. It's all a gamble on how good of a passer Richardson turns out to be... I try to minimize gambling with my early picks.
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Texans signing Mixon to replace Singletary made sense. I think they overpaid given age/metrics... but whatever. I understand it. I don't get the Diggs trade at all. Perhaps they wanted an upgrade over old Woods, or don't trust Dell's health? I guess. They voided Diggs final years and threw in some guaranteed money, so Diggs is in a contract year and will be a free-agent. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. If I were to bet, my money is on Diggs goes on to his 4th team next year.
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Wr 23 - Stefon Diggs finished top 10 last four years. Seems like a bargain, but what a strange situation in Houston. FF Mike projects Diggs at 86 receptions, which seems realistic. Now lets include the other projected receptions (Nico, Tank, Noah, Shutz, Jordan, Mixon, Pierce)... 369 total. Assuming target to catch ratio of 70% (very high)... that's 527 targets at a minimum. But that doesn't include targets to various other 2nd/3rd stringers Wrs, Te's, Rbs, Fb... of which the seven players remaining from last year had 150. Wr's Woods and Metchie take a backseat, but it still doesn't add up. How many targets will Diggs realistically get? Not easy to figure. Lord knows he'll be the first to complain about lack of targets. Gripped his way out of Minnesota and Buffalo. And which player shows up in Houston? Week 1-7 last year Diggs had 6 Tds, five 100+ yd games, rec/yds out the wazoo. Ranked Wr 2. Rest of the season... 2 total Tds, never broke 100 yds, rec/yds down... ranked Wr 35. Same in the two playoff games with no Tds and modest rec/yds. What the hell happened to Diggs? Aside from the salary cap and griping, is that partly why the Bills traded him for a 2nd rounder - (rather cheap given his stature)? Who knows. Stroud was great last year - maybe greatest rookie Qb season of all time. So does he improve or have a softmore slump? Stats were so good a slight decrease seems likely, but not much because ... he's so good. Regardless, one thing with Stroud - he loves the long-ball, but Diggs only had 10 rec of 20+ yds last year, which is very low, as most top ten Wrs had 20+. Last year Collins did it 25 times (in 15 gms) and Tank 10 times (in 11 games). So does Diggs suddenly get better downfield? Overall the situation is very confusing and no outcome (good or bad) would shock. Draft wise, I'm out.
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As I've said, I think a few of the big name Rbs are a bit over-valued (Barkley, Kamara, Mixon)... but I can't say that about Henry. Metrics are solid - in spite of age, usage and playing for a bad Titans team. Incredible. My one concern is the Ravens replaced 3 starting o-lineman which is always a bit alarming. I also wonder if the Ravens might limit the 30 yo to a small degree for a playoff push, maybe 250+ touches rather than 300+.?. Who knows, the same was said of McCaff last year and that never panned out. Still those concerns aren't enough for me to try to talk anyone out of him. He could very well finish with the most Tds and lord knows how many yards. Dude's a beast.
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You have way more faith in Richardson's passing game than me. Maybe he's great... nobody knows. Only completed 54.7% in college, and last year's NFL - 59.5% (despite a low 6.9 yds per comp). That has to concern anyone drafting Pittman.
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He's the one I thought everyone would be talking about. Scouting guru's can't say enough great things about him. The Raiders like him so much they used a 1st rd pick when he surprisingly fell to pick 13 due to all Qbs drafted... even though the Raiders previously spent a 2nd rd pick on Te Michael Mayer the year prior.
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Wr 12 - Michael Pittman Jr. 156 tar - 109 rec, 1,152 yds and 4 Tds, finished 13th. Was 20th in '22, and 21st in '21. Entering 5th year and appears to be at the peak of skill. Coming off career best season, though with Minshew as Qb most of the season. Wr 12 implies Anthony Richardson will keep things going just as they were. Richardson still has a lot to prove (to me anyways) passing wise only playing 2 full games last year - completion rate 56.4%, though yardage projected to 3,600 yds. Richardson only started 13 total games in college - finishing with 53.8% completion, 17 Tds / 9 Ints. And that was against some bottom dwellers - South FL, Kentucky, Vandy, E. Washington. I was surprised he went #4 overall (and I'm a Gator fan), but clearly his running game is what GM's want. Week 1 last year Pittman had 8 rec for 97 yds and a Td. Looks good, though the Td came from a behind the line of scrimmage pass which Pittman broke loose for 40 yds. In fact all 3 of Richardson's Td passes were short - other 2 were Te dump-offs. Pittman is a great Wr and Richardson is a great running Qb who might eventually be a true dual threat... but right now Wr 12 feels like a stretch.