GobbleDog

We all need mid/late round Rb gems, so is Brian Robinson Jr. worth the adp ? Fantasypros Rb 31, FFToday Rb 29 '22) 12 gm, 205 car, 797 yds, 3.9 ypc, 9 rec, 3 total Tds '23) 15 gm, 178 car, 733 yds, 4.1 ypc, 36 rec, 9 total Tds Finished Rb 21 last year despite missing two games (also Rb 21 in pt/gm). 3rd rd pick out of Alabama didn't start off with a bang. Bad pun, but might explain the poor metrics that rookie season. Those metrics improved a lot in '23 in spite of playing on a terrible team with coaches waiting to get fired. Washington overhauled the offense with a new coach, coordinator, Qb, and signed/drafted o-linemen. Recently Youtubed some of his games. Not "highlights", just every carry/target from random games last year. I'm no NFL scout, but it's impressive. Patience, breaking tackles and surprisingly nimble for 6'2". Several plays he'd get hit in the backfield (bad o-line), but managed to make something out of nothing. Partly explains his impressive 9th overall ranking in Production Premium metric (situational comparison of play outcome to league avg). He also made beautiful catches and had a knack for getting open down the sideline. Finished with 10.2 yds per rec - highest among all Rbs with at least 20 rec. Though to be fair, a drop rate of 7%. I think there's an over-reaction to Ekeler's signing happening. Ekeler wasn't given much money, and seems mostly like a replacement for Gibson. FFToday projects Robinson at 204 car, 836 yds, 32 rec, 7 Total Tds... good for Rb 27 last year. The numbers seem reasonable, but look like the absolute floor considering he was Rb 21 last year on a horrific team. Lastly, nobody ever talks about the run game coordinator/running back coach, but worth noting Washington hired Anthony Lynn who's track record with Rbs is impressive - Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Shonn Green, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, McCaffery, etc. Rb 30 ish... think I'm buying. What say ye?

Excuses are finished. But reasons to be optimistic with Jonnu Smith gone (70 targets) and given what Cousins did with Hockenson. Pitts had 90 targets last year.... only 57 were charted as catchable. That's not good.

Noticed that earlier only twice did a Packer's Wr break 100 yds... wk 17 and 18. Even red-zone - Doubs 9 targets inside the ten, scored 6. Reed had 8 targets, scored 4. Still, Reed probably builds some after an impressive rookie year. Especially if teams keep blitzing Love and he needs those short targets - finished as the most blitzed qb. Guess teams wanted to test the newbie.

I don't follow Eagles football, but I always thought they fired him for not winning the big one. Which seemed insane... 4 NFC title games and a SuperBowl appearance. I'd kill for my Dolphins just to win a couple playoff games. But maybe that wasn't the real story. I knew the son died. Didn't know he just quit. I mean, what NFL coach quits? And now that I google it.... "Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie made the decision to fire him in 2012 after a 4-12 season" Yeah, he was fired. "Thanks for the four NFC title games - hit the road." Philly... ugh. Try being a Dolphin fan the past 25 years.

Neither were Pitts drafters last year about Jonnu Smith, but he sure ate into the targets. I'm obviously a little more concerned about Knox than others. No idea where the targets finish, but it's something to consider.

Wow, you're gonna have some high scoring Qbs. Never heard of that point system. So much for running Qbs. Downgrades guys like Hurts, Jackson, and Richardson. All you care about is big passing yards. This is similar to one of my leagues which gives 0.5 pts per completion. Not a huge fan, but it does screw up rankings... yet some keep drafting off their sheets like nothing changed, but it makes a big difference. If I were in your league... I'd still wait. Prescott, Goff, Cousins, Tua... all available in later rounds and all have a legit shot of finishing with top 5 passing yards. I'd draft two late and see which one rises to the top. That's my strategy even my 0.5 pt completion league... which occasionally has 70 pt Qb games. And ppr.... wr-wr. Especially if people are drafting Qb's early. Benefit off that mistake.

Never heard that nickname. Reminds me of Big Shot Bob - Robert Horry who by the end of his career mostly came in to drain monster 3-pointers in the playoffs - and did, time after time.

I've looked a bit at Reed and I'm intrigued. 5'11" 187 lbs out of Mich St... 2nd rd pick. Had a respectable rookie year playing slot - 94 tar, 64 rec, 8 Tds. Watson is the deep threat, Doubs is the other split. Hard to guess where the targets fall this year with Watson missing so many games last year. Still, Reed's rookie campaign was impressive and seems to have a connection with Love - who being a young Wr probably likes that short-yardage slot pass.

Knox went on IR starting Week 8. Prior 7 games.... Knox 28 targets, Kincaid 27 targets.... Kincaid did miss a game during that span (concussion). When Knox came back Week 14, Kincaid out-targeted the rest of the season 27 to 8. Was it because Kincaid completely took the job, or attributable to Knox's long absence and coming off IR ? Who knows, but one thing is certain, the Bills need reliable hands this year.

Fantasy land wants to totally write off Knox, but that might not be reality. One reason Kincaid got so many targets last year was Knox broke his wrist Week 5 and played through it for two more weeks, before hitting IR for surgery and missing the next five. Given the lack of air weapons at Bills disposal, Knox could end up with way more targets than Kincaid drafters would like.

That's fair. I'd be a little more confident if there was amazing talent around him. Reed Wr 35, Watson Wr 43, Musgrave Te 17... also worry about their overworked Rb. One thing going for him - Green Bay always seem to have one of the better o-lines. 3rd fewest sacks allowed last year.

First nine ... 2,009 yds, 58.7% 14 Td, 10 Int, 2 rush Td... Qb 17 pt/gm Last eight... 2,150 yds, 70.2%, 18 Td, 1 Int, 2 rush Td ... Qb 4 pt/gm Can't argue he's a bad pick at Qb 9 adp, but which guy shows up?

Deneric Prince ... '23 undrafted free agent out of Tulsa. Played 2 games last year - no snaps. Never heard of him til this thread. Thought CEH was clear #2. I will say Andy Reid doesn't care about draft stock ... CEH 1st rd, Pacheco 7th rd. Whoever's best, plays.

I'd prefer Godwin (Wr 33) over Evans (Wr 16). Last year the Bucs inexplicably moved Godwin from slot role to split end... he finished with 12.4 pts/gm or Wr 38. This year the Bucs are moving Godwin back to slot. Godwin's previous years as the Bucs slot man: '22) 15.2 pts/gm Wr 14 '21) 17.3 pts/gm Wr 8 '20) 15.9 pts/gm Wr 15

I'll pay up for AJ Brown who I believe is a special talent and seems to be Hurts first read. Also Smith only weighs 170 lbs... incredible he's only missed 1 game in three years. Worried that durability might not last. I'll pay up for Nacua. Rams coach has a way of force-feeding targets to players he likes, as he did with Kupp for years and Nacua last year. Kupp is clearly nearing the end. I prefer getting out a year early, than a year late. I'd pay up for Collins over Diggs/Tank - have way more faith in Collins living up to that adp. But probably won't have to make that decision - in all likelihood I'm drafting DK Metcalf around that spot. As for Gibbs vs Monty, Achane vs Mostert.... I'll take the #2 banana at drastically discounted prices.

Yeah, not big on Ekeler. Last year's metrics weren't pretty: True yac 62nd, Yds/touch 31st, Juke rate 36th. "He'll get lots of receptions because he's the great Ekeler!" Maybe, but Gibson had the 15th most receptions (48) among Rbs last year... finished Rb 46 in pt/game (8.1). It takes volume and Tds in fantasy football - I'd be surprised if Ekeler gets much of either. His veteran presence might turn out to be a boost for Robinson, rather than diminishing like some view it.

'23 most drops by position and target %. RB - Ford 9 14.3%, Gibbs 8 11.3%, Mattison 7 15.9%, Cook 6 11.1%, Pollard 6 9.0%, Ekeler 6 8.1%, B. Robinson 6 7.0% WR - Nacua 13 8.1%, Hill 12 7.0%, Njigba 10 10.8%, Rice 8 7.8%, Diggs 8 5.0%, St. Brown 8 4.9%, Adams 8 4.6% TE - Njoku 11 8.9%, Higbee 7 10.0%, Kelce 7 5.8%, Engram 7 4.9%, Okonkwo 6 7.8%, Ferguson 5 4.9%, LaPorta 5 4.2% Rather surprising how bad Ford was, considering he used to return kicks so you'd think he'd have reliable hands. Lamb had the most targets (181) yet only 6 drops - 3.3%. Only four players with 100+ targets had 2 drops or less... Aiyuk, Pickens, Meyers, and Jefferson.

1st rd out of Ohio St... supposedly a "slot specialist". Seattle figured he'd replace aging Lockett. Njiba's adp is Wr 44... 9th round. I don't get it - he seems undraftable. Wrs can have fantasy relevance from slot (Kupp), but it requires a lot of volume. Last year Njigba averaged 9.1 fantasy pts / gm (weeks 1-17)... Wr 55.

Njigba's 10.8% drop rate was the highest among all Wrs... by a lot. Strange thing is he mostly played slot - usually short passes. His avg distance of target (adot) was a pathetic 6.1 yds, ranking 95th in the league. And he still kept dropping the ball.

As I said the most sacks allowed were the Giants, Redskins, and Panthers. Their respective rank getting sacks: 26th, 29th, and 32nd. Oof. The Chiefs allowed the 2nd fewest sacks, but their defense had the 2nd most sacks. Another SuperBowl win and Mahomes gets credit. Funny how that works.

They made him an offer last week. No details, but Dak reportedly wants $60 mill per year... which would top Lawrence and Burrow ($55 mil).

I got your back Weepaw - I found your last pick of the draft Te... Colts 2022 third-rd pick out of Virginia - Jelani Woods. Sparingly used his rookie year on an abominable team finishing with just 25 rec and 3 Tds. Missed all of last year due to a hamstring, which is why he's now ranked Te 29. But that's a mistake. His RAS (relative athletic score) coming out of college? That would be a perfect 10.0 ... in the history of the RAS dating back to 1987, Woods ranks first among 998 Te's. He's a giant standing at 6'7" 253 lbs which makes an easy target for Richardson and a nightmare for secondaries to tackle. Now entering his third year which is often when Te's start to blow up and he's got virtually no competition at the Te position (Mo Alie-Cox & Kylen Granson).

I hated to have to report that stat, but it jumped out while number crunching... so yeah. Not great. In his defense he did have some amazing catches last year, but I also saw some easy passes clank off his hands.

Ekeler signing is why nobody is excited about Robinson. "Rb 2" ... c'mon. Robinson gets the bulk of carries and goal line, along with 30+ receptions. I'll give ya Daniels might steal some carries and Tds, but hell... have ya seen where Barkley, Taylor, and Cooks are getting drafted? Their Qb are guaranteed to cannibalize Tds and carries. We don't even know what Daniels role will be yet. Yes, Lynn was Chargers coach with Ekeler and Melvin Gordon - both had some good years.

If I could be assured of getting Brock Bowers in the 8th round... I'd take it. I've mock drafted him several times there, but when it's down to him and Ferguson in the 7th, I often chicken out and take Ferguson. But for people like you who have no fear of "missing out on a great Te"... Bowers should absolutely be on your radar. He's not quite double-digit rounds, but darn close. Read up on Bowers... perhaps the post I made on the previous page. You'll be intrigued. Or should be. Might be LaPorta 2.0.