GobbleDog

32) George Pickens ADP 5.01. Played 17 games, 106 tar - 63 rec, 1,140 yds (18.1 avg), 22 deep rec, 5 Tds. Finished 29th last year with 208.8 pts or 12.3 per game. Was 40th in '22. The 18.1 average reception and 22 deep receptions are impressive - type of stats only the best-of-the best usually have, even more impressive considering Pickett was qb. Clearly the big change here is Wilson, who should be a huge upgrade over K. Pickett (one of the worst qb's to ever play modern football). But Wilson didn't exactly light it up himself last year only throwing 3,070 yds in 15 games, with Denver's top receiver - Sutton only getting 59 receptions, but did haul in 10 Tds. I consider Pickens to have considerably more talent than Sutton and will likely finish higher than last year's 29th, so his ADP of 32 feels like easy value. But how much higher than 29? Who knows, given Wilson's lackluster passing stats and now Falcon's Arthur Smith as coordinator who completely destroyed the value of London and Pitts.

Agreed. Not nearly as much variance or injuries. Still get some surprises... Prescott top 3 / Herbert 17th. I have the same take on drafting Qbs as I do Te - late in the season when I'm in a must-win game to either make the playoffs or advance, I want a Qb/Te who's much less likely to end up with a dud game. Don't mind spending some early draft capital to help make that happen, especially when I know I can shotgun the middle/later rounds and get startable Rbs, along with mining waivers. Rbs have the highest variance anyway so early picks don't often produce results equivalent to the draft capital invested. Might as well invest some in positions more likely to help throughout the season and could be crucial in, or near, the playoffs.

Wait, Etienne suffered a Linsfrac injury... not achilles. Here's the high-water mark for Rb's who suffered an Achilles - Donta Foreman. Torn in late 2017. Five years later in 2022 Foreman finally had the best season of his entire career in Carolina... 914 yds, 5 Tds. That ain't saying much. Until some RB finally overcomes the Achilles - and it'll probably happen eventually... it remains the curse of death for Rbs. Good luck Dobbins and I sincerely hope he breaks the curse, but I can't draft him.

Another question - is this a 3-headed timeshare? Rb 38) Gus Edwards, Rb 53) JK Dobbins, Rb 72) Kimani Vidal None of those guys are known for pass-catching skills (not that they'll be throwing to Rb's much), though interestingly Vidal did rank as the 2nd best pass-blocker in college last year. Considering ADP's, Edward's plodding running style (probably gets bulk of goal-line work), and fact that Dobbins tore his ACHILLES (historically the death nail for Rbs)... I'll be targeting Vidal late - who Harbaugh personally selected in the draft. Don't expect much the first half of the season so he might roster-clog a while, but could pay dividends late.

Not many years ago I used to think the exact same way, but I've changed my tune. When it's late in the season and I'm in a must-win game to either make the playoffs or advance... I want one of the top Te's rather than some scrub I found off waivers who's dud-game chances are high. I'm not nearly as concerned as I used to be over the opportunity cost of using a 4th/5th/6th rounder on a Te. The Rb position is inherently so volatile (injury/variance) compared to every other position and you can easily load up in later rounds and end up with a few Rbs who eventually pan out. But I totally understand your mentality.... used to feel like it was a wasted pick on an early Te.

I'm not too concerned about the temporary hold-out. Business decision I guess. My fear with Harrison is he's currently Wr 10. He'll be hard pressed to finish that high as a rookie. As a team the Cardinals aren't projected to be very good with a lowly o/u win total of 6.5. Then there's Kyler Murray who has NEVER surpassed 4,000 passing yards (not a lot nowadays) during his five year career. Murray finished with a passer rating of 89.4 last season... ranking 20th. So we have a rookie Wr, on a bad team, with a Qb who's passing skills are questionable... and he's supposed to finish Wr 10 or higher? Seems like a stretch.

It was widely reported that Waller was contemplating retirement so not a huge shock. From a fantasy standpoint - no impact. Waller probably wouldn't have been drafted. An 8-year career.... only one of which ever amounted to anything ('20).

I think Kelse will be solid, but the Te position is so DEEP this year. If ya pass on La Porta and Kelse in the early rounds, between rounds 4 to 7 there will be numerous solid Te options: McBride, Andrews, Kincaid, Engram, Kittle, Pitts, Ferguson. If there was ever a year to wait a bit on a TE, this is it. I'm particularly interested in Pitts who's disappointed so many times, he's now falling to rounds 5/6. Yet this is probably the best opportunity he's ever had - 4th season, Cousins at qb (made Hockenson great), new pass-happy coordinator, less Te competition (Jonnu Smith gone). Looks like value.

Harbaugh spent three seasons in San Fran ('11-'13)... during which the Niners finished 3rd, 7th, and 3rd in rushing attempts, and 8th, 4th and 3rd in rushing yards. Greg Roman has been hired Chargers o-coordinator. Roman was previously coordinator in Baltimore ('19-'22)... during which the Ravens finished 1st, 1st, 3rd and 7th in rushing attempts, and 1st, 1st, 3rd, and 2nd in rushing yards. The Chargers are going to pound the ball down their opponents throats.

Even though I started this "Top 10 Rb" thread, I won't be drafting any of them. Taking early Rbs has proven to be a poor investment most years... in spite of knowing that I couldn't help myself when Chubb fell to me last year- "he's Mr. Reliable!" Oof. Last season's 1st and 2nd rd Rb's (weeks 1-17 ppr scoring): Rb1 C. McCaffrey, finished 1st. Worked great! Rb2 A. Eckler, finished 25th Rb3 B. Robinson, finished 12th Rb4 N. Chubb, finished 87th Rb5 S. Barkley, finished 16th Rb6 T. Pollard, finished 14th Rb7 D. Henry, finished 10th. Not bad. Rb8 J. Jacobs, finished 23rd Rb 9 N. Harris, finished 24th None of the Rbs exceeded their draft position and only one met their draft position - McCaff. The other eight had a median finish of 20th, despite relatively few major injuries (other than Chubb) and most missed very little playing time - it was just Rb variance. Among the Rbs that actually did finish top 10, most were drafted between rounds 3 and 5... lowest was Mostert (rd 10). Early Wr's: Wr1 J. Jefferson, finished 37th Wr2 J. Chase, finished 10th Wr3 T. Hill, finished 2nd Wr4 S. Diggs, finished 9th Wr5 A.J. Brown, finished 4th Wr6 G. Wilson, finished 23rd Wr7 C. Lamb, finished 1st Wr8 St. Brown, finished 3rd Wr9 D. Adams, finished 11th Median finish of 9th. Only two badly disappointed - Jefferson (injury) and WIlson (qb injury). The other seven were quite productive and owners were happy they drafted them. Qbs taken first two rounds - J. Allen, finished 1st. J. Hurts, finished 2nd, P. Mahomes finished 7th. Te taken first two rounds - T. Kelce finished 2nd. There have been some years when drafting early Rb's turned out to be the right thing to do, typically with an unusual number of Wr or Qb injuries. But overwhelmingly, the safest investment for your most valuable draft capital has been non-Rbs.

Jackson had 5 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last year... scored once. Goal line Tds aren't his "strength". Designed runs from everywhere else is where he gets paid and his rushing stats were on the decline til last year's small spike. He still rushes more than most Qbs, but not like he did in years 2 and 3. Now entering year 7 with Henry in the backfield... Jackson will run, but probably not much from inside the 5. Coach will be calling Henry's number, just like they did with Edwards last year.

Gus Edwards led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the five yard line (23). Henry winning OPY at 50-1 odds seems reasonable. Good luck and if he gets close I'll be rooting for ya!

Over the past three years Allen has averaged 384 completions per season. Let's give Cooks 50 (which would be a record high for Allen to Rbs). Let's give te Kincaid 90 (even though he only had 73 last year). Let's say 30 to te Knox. That totals 170 leaving another 210 on the table - at the very least. One of the Wrs is going to get the bulk of those. I don't know which, but Shakir seems least likely given history/situation - so Samuel or Coleman. Given their ridiculously low adp's... how can you not be intrigued? Looks like free fantasy gold waiting to be mined.

I think Samuel used to play slot at Washington... but doubt he does that at Buffalo as that was Shakir's role last year. Obviously Buffalo saw something they like in Samuel giving him a 3-year $24 mill contract with $15 mill guaranteed. So, you're probably not wrong targeting him.

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I haven't given up on Quentin Johnston yet and the Chargers probably haven't either considering the draft capital invested. Quentin was terrible last year, but he was a rookie and the 3rd banana on the team (sometimes 4th after Palmer). He'll get better - can't do any worse, but how much better in a Harbaugh run-first team with Palmer and McConkey competing is debatable. That's why Johnston is ranked WR 65 with an ADP of 13.5. Looks like value to me.

I'm more interested in Bills Wr Keon Coleman, who's ADP (WR 58) is about the same as Samuel & Shakir. I'm rarely bullish on rookie Wrs, but this is the exception. Coleman isn't fast (4.61 40-meter) and doesn't get separation, but can he do? The former basketball player jumps up and out-rebounds everyone for the football, as he did time and time again at FSU (even with crappy Qb play). This landing spot with Allen is perfect and I foresee a lot of deep targets, big yardage and Tds.

I feel like I have good bead on several Rbs, but not so much on the Wr position. Changing Qbs and situations makes it difficult. Pickens initially jumped off the page at me at a great Wr target. I never believed in Diontae Johnson last year... and I was right - he's a bum. But Pickens - dude finished with 22 receptions of 20+ yds! Incredible - a stat only the elite Wrs had last year. More amazing considering the garbage qb play. But now enter Wilson. He does love the deep go routes... but stinks at most everything else. And Fields might start/take over at some point. Hard to figure, but I'm leaning towards liking Pickens at his adp. Don't know what to make of Kupp... 31 yo, considering Puka took over the top spot... still got some soul searching to do on this one. I'm leaning toward thinking Kupp is value, but I'm quite not there yet.

Was that also the problem in '22 when White averaged 3.7 ypc - Not his fault, back-to-back years with a crappy o-line.?. At least Tampa did spend a 1st rd pick on an o-lineman and signed three more in free-agency, so we'll have to wait and see if that fixes the problem. Unfortunately, my draft occurs prior to regular season so I'm gonna have to make an educated guess.... and I'm guessing the 3rd rd pick out of Arizona St who's career ypc is 3.7 ... stinks. "I'd expect about 70 receptions, 1700 total yards and 12 TD's." - you are the ultimate optimist, sir. God bless you.

I do too. With the new offensive toys, new coach... it HAS to get better (the offense couldn't possibly get worse). But not better to the point of Spears top 10. He's currently Rb 28. The receptions probably justify that. Everything else... (carries, yardage, Tds) is a total mystery.

Feel the same - top 10 is a huge stretch. But if I'm picking between Spears and Pollard... I'd rather have Spears who seems more explosive and elusive. The main problem in Tennessee is Will Levis. Good lord he stunk last year. Surprising the Titans didn't move on. Spears and Pollard will both face stacked defenses all season daring Levis to beat them. And Tds will be scarce.

Rachaad White "246 carries"... I'd be surprised. If we could bet over/under on that, I think even Mike would take the under. Unless his ypc amazingly increases, the Bucs would be insane to keep pouring water down that bottomless well. James Cook is interesting... (2nd rd out of Georgia). Softmore season: 4.7 ypc on 237 carries with 6 runs of 20+ yds. Added 44 receptions and averaged 10.1 ypr - highest of any RB with 40+ receptions. Mr. efficiency and durable. Only knock is the Bills had 22 rushing Tds last year.... Cook got 2. Allen ate 15 with the rest going to backup Rbs Murray (4) and Harris (1). Huge personnel shift with both top Wrs out, along with Rbs Murray and Harris. Bills drafted Rb Davis who seems suited for goal line work. Allen gets his share at the goal line, Davis gets some.... Cook gets crumbs again (still surely higher than the paltry 2 from last year). Allen has never thrown much to Rbs - last year's 44 is the highest any Rb has ever gotten with Allen. But considering how efficient he was with it, he'll likely replicate it and possibly increase especially with the new Wrs. Overall, Cook seems very safe. 230+ carries, 45+ receptions, big yardage, durability... only question is Tds. He finished Rb 12 last year in ppr, yet he's currently ranked Rb 15 per Fantasypros. Mike ranks him Rb 7. I have to agree.

Some say he's washed, others say it's a 4-headed timeshare, and others think he'll bounce back to old form. Numerous comments from Bronco fans on reddit complain "Williams keeps running to the back of his own blockers! No vision." Who knows... fans are idiots. Last year Williams played 16 games and led the team in carries with 217 (closest was 76 by McLaughlin), 774 rush yds (3.6 avg), 47 rec, 4 total Tds, finished 29th among Rbs with 11.2 pt/gm. I've read (and believe) that Russel Wilson's refusal to throw over the middle or basically anywhere except deep go routes, led to a lot of stacked boxes. So that didn't help. Will Bo Nix take some pressure off? Maybe, can't get worse. In the draft, Broncos went Qb, Lb, Wr, Cb, Rb, Wr, C (late 7th) .... so they really didn't do much for their o-line and the only Rb drafted was late 5th round - Audric Estime out of Notre Dame... a slow bruising back per scouts. The Broncos didn't sign any free-agent Rbs and the only o-line signing was a career backup. Rb depth chart: 1) Williams - not drafted by Sean Payton, so no loyalty 2) Perine - turns 29 mid-season. Last year 53 carries (4.5 avg), 50 rec, 1 total Td 3) McLaughlin - undrafted out of Youngstown St. Last year 76 carries (5.4 avg), 31 rec, 3 total Td 4) Estime - the slow rookie There's the data - what to make of it? The lack of bringing in new Rbs (aside from late 5th pick) leads me to believe Payton wants to stick with Williams one more year. Last week Payton said "Williams looks good. It often takes two years from that injury to regain form." The lack of o-line upgrades makes me think Peyton believes most of their offensive problems last year were mainly because of Russel Wilson. So I think we're looking at another 200+ carries and probably an increase in ypc being another year removed from the injury, as well as motivated by a contract year. I don't think there's much to fear from the Rb competition. However.... let's be honest - the team isn't very good. Even on defense they gave up the 4th most yards last year and 5th most points. Bo Nix reportedly doesn't have the strongest arm and the offense isn't loaded with weapons. In the end, my guess is Williams finishes around 20th... he's currently ranked 25th, so that would technically be value. Just don't see a very high ceiling, though barring injury - the floor can't be any lower than the 29th of last year.

Fun stats.... Number of Rbs with 200+ carries by year: 2020 - 10 2021 - 18 2022 - 22 2023 - 23 Not the trend I expected. Among the 2023 Rbs with 200+ carries: Javonte Williams had the fewest 20+ yd runs (2) - James Conner had the most (11) .... old guy/bad team, incredible. James Cook had the fewest rushing Tds (2) - Raheem Mostert had the most (18) Josh Jacobs had the lowest ypc (3.5) - Christian McCaffrey had the highest (5.4) Five Rbs had no fumbles - Bijan Robinson had the most (4)

Probably. Good luck Brown. $5 mill free-agent with proven production -vs- 5th rd pick out of Illinois Anything can happen in this crazy game, but I know which one I'd bet on.