GobbleDog

I'm not a big "tier guy" ... just like who I like. But I do consider Hill, Chase, Lamb and St. Brown to be the best-of-the-best picks of this draft. After that I'd be happy with Wilson, Brown Jefferson, and Nacua. It's the final two on that list that scare me... Adams and Harrison. I've flip flopped between Adams, London and Ayuik in mocks in the 2nd rd... not really loving any. Not sure where I'll end up on that ranking. But Harrison - I'm not willing to be among the first in ff history to draft a rookie Wr top 10, particularly on a sub-par Cards team. Even when your early Wr fails to live up to expectation, it's rarely as disastrous as with Rbs. They usually still finish inside top 20+-. But the Harrison pick feels like he could badly disappoint. This is uncharted territory - no rookie Wr has ever been drafted this high. Might prove me wrong, but feels risky. I don't like to gamble with my early picks.

I agree with the "thunder and lighting" thinking for Payton - Ingram & Kamara reboot. I'm still not sure who gets cut... Williams or Perine. Surprising they don't just trade Williams to Dallas for scraps, rather than cut. If Williams does make the team, that complicates things with Estime - then they'd split early down work and goal line. The Broncos threw more to Rbs than any team last year, so clearly Payton wants a Kamara type player. McLaughlin seems to be the best candidate for that job with excellent metrics last year and if he is Peyton's chosen one - could have 60+ receptions, if not more depending how successful they are. Bo Nix loved the short passes in college which helps and possibly why Payton drafted him. At this point in the cluster-mess, I'm leaning McLaughlin. Even if Williams is gone, I want the guy getting consistent receptions. And the adp is dirt cheap.

Allen is ranked Qb 1 and it does seem lofty given the changes. I'd prefer Hurts or Mahomes, but I still have Allen 3rd. True they lost Diggs and Davis, but Diggs faded badly in the second half and Davis didn't do much all year... yet Allen still finished Qb 1. Buffalo still has Kincaid, Knox and I suspect Cooks gets more receptions. And they brought in several complimentary Wrs. Bills have a difficult schedule against the pass, but I don't put much stock in SOS with data based on the prior year and given player turnover. Besides Allen does a lot of his damage rushing. Purdy is ranked Qb 11. Finished Qb 6 last year and not much changed in SF. The only thing... look at his stats in 16 games - 4,300 pass yds, 33 total Tds, a spectacular passer rating of 113.0 (dump offs to McCaff helped). I can't see a world where he improves on that, and might not replicate it. He's not considered the best pocket passer and isn't known for arm strength - just has incredible awareness... and surrounded by amazing talent. Considering what he did Qb 11 is probably low, but I'd be surprised if he broke top 5. Jefferson is ranked Wr 5 so there's a small discount baked into his adp for the Qb change. I'd prefer a little more discount for that, along with the hamstring which was serious enough to cause him to miss 7 games. If Jefferson gets insane targets (and he probably will) and stays healthy, he should finish Wr 10+-. Look what old-man Adams did (Wr 11) with terrible Qb play in Vegas.

Youtube fantasy experts - too many "I just sorta feel..." takes. Short on data points backing it up. Talk metrics or team situations, personnel, coaching schemes, pertinent historical data, etc. Compelling reasons why I should or shouldn't draft a player. Their gut feelings don't hold water. But they get clicks, which is what they want and I'm a sucker for fantasy football opinions so I click - usually leave unimpressed.

Heard a scout guru (Nystrom) about Worthy today. His thoughts: I was surprised when I saw the adp on Xavier Worthy. He of course broke the combine record for forty and creates separation. Where I think it could be an issue initially is Mahomes trusting him and staying on the field. Worthy has got a real issue with drops and that was catching the ball in the intermediate range, even short. Sometimes he was wide open, the ball would just clank off his hands. He also doesn't have a very good catch radius, so you have to fit it in there, and even then he's not money. Also not as good down-field as you would think for a guy of his speed. Texas didn't use him much with that. Right now Worthy is being projected as a starter in the offense with Brown, Rice as well Sky Moore. But the skill set of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown are superfluous. That was one guy that Worthy was comped to during the pre-draft process. But Brown right now is way more reliable than Worthy, certainly as a route runner, but also the hands as well. Mahomes is gonna trust him more, and then the other concepts. Going down the field, posting up Rice for a lot of that stuff, and then of course you have the pass catching vacuum with tight end and Travis Kelsey. I don't know what about Worthy's profile justifies him being taken as high as he is. I don't think he starts super fast as a rookie.

The rule can't get banned this year as owners already met and made rule changes - tush push remained in tact. It was illegal to push and pull teammates forward... until 2005 when the NFL repealed the "push" part. The logic was refs couldn't easily judge who was pushing who, which led to some bad calls. In any case, I keep hearing some Barkley supporters say the Eagles want to get away from it, but I haven't heard that from any official sources (coaches). Even if they did say it - I won't believe it til I see it. The Eagles have perfected a damn-near unstoppable play.

Barkley's metrics declined from '21 to '22, and again in '23 - and last year was really bad. Once one of the most elusive Rb's in the league, last year his juke rate ranked 48th, true yac 51st, yd per touch 42nd, yds created per touch 46th, etc. Some blame the declined metrics on a bad Giants team and there might be some truth to that. But that is some serious decline, which should make anyone drafting him nervous. In New York, Barkley also had the advantage of being on the field all the time with snap counts around 70 to 90%+ (one week last year was 97%). The Eagles have never been that kind of team and there's no guarantee Barkley continues to get that much volume. The Eagles might also want to preserve him for a playoff push, especially given his age and history. Hurts doesn't throw much to Rbs so no certainty he gets the 50+ receptions some are expecting. Last year Swift - known for receptions, had just 39. In '22 and '21, Gainwell led the Rbs with just 23 and 33 respectively. But the death nail is the Tush Push which puts a hard cap on his value. Barkley will have to score most of his Tds from distance - which isn't reliable. Throw in Barkley's age, millage, and injury history for good measure... I'm out. He's currently Rb 6. I think that's ridiculously optimistic. I get the euphoria - The Legendary Barkley going to the high-powered Eagles. Sounds good, but caveat emptor.

Possible, but 200 might be a stretch. The all-time NFL record is 205 by Marvin Harrison in '02. In '22, Lamb only had 156. Over the past five years, the league's highest targets were 181, 184, 191, 166, & 185 (last two being 16 games). Whatever... he's going to get a lot of targets - probably among the top five. I can't blame anyone for taking Lamb first considering he finished 1st last year and 5th in '22. The reason he doesn't top my list is last year took an insane amount of targets (probably happens again), 14 total Tds of which 2 were rushing (not sure if that happens again), and a career season from Dak (not sure if that happens again). But the sheer volume alone should make him a lock for top 5. Seems like a very safe pick.

Haven't fully decided order, but I'm leaning 1) Hill 2) Chase 3) Lamb 4) St. Brown .... whatever order I settle on, I'd take any of them and then McCaff. Which ain't happening in any league in the world.

Redraft and don't know spot yet. The reason I'm sure I won't get those guys is McCaff would have to fall to 5th - I want those sure-fire Wrs. Hall would have to fall to about 10th, and Taylor/Bijan would have to fall to early 2nd round. None of that is happening.

My rank... 1) McCaff, 2) Hall, 3) Taylor, 4) Bijan. I wouldn't rank Gibbs top 10, nor Barkley top 15... shows what I think of their situations. The McCaff over-work thing, yeah huge problem. Hell 339 touches last year, think about 668 touches over the past two years. I'd love to see some breakdown of how often Rbs had that amount of touches over a two year span and how they fared the next year... not to mention age 28 with so much millage already. Very few have done it. But there's no predicting Rb injuries... even the most durable of durable drop like flies (Chubb). Not to mention, under-performance. So much variance at that position. As such, I likely won't be drafting any of them as they won't fall far enough for me to even consider them.

Very true. There are three big-name Rbs with bad metrics and going to new teams: Barkley, Mixon and Jacobs. "They'll do better, that prior team sucked." We shall see. I'm skeptical with all of 'em.

The Jets had some of worst Qb play in league ... Hall finished 4th (week 1-17). So I don't get the logic "If Rogers gets hurt again..." He tore his acl in Week 7 of '22. Didn't miss a game last year and ... finished 4th. Hardly a "sub-par year." I'm the last person to advocate taking a Rb early, but Hall's #2 ranking makes perfect sense. Great metrics, lots of receptions, all goal line work... and now playing for an improved Jets team. He'd be the next Rb I'd draft after McCaff.

Apparently he didn't "fully gain the trust of his coach" by the playoffs, despite a solid season: Wildcard: Monty 14 carries, Gibbs 8 Division: Monty 10 carries, Gibbs 9 Conference: Monty 15 carries, Gibbs 12 This isn't a "trust" issue - it's a two-man team strategy which worked incredibly well. Monty and Gibbs are gonna split carries until it stops working or one gets injured. I wouldn't spend an early 2nd round pick on a player who doesn't get the bulk of goal line work and might not even get 200 carries. If I was to draft a Rb that early, I'd prefer Taylor - he ain't splitting with anyone, likely gets 250 to 300+ carries, some receptions and all goal line work. But I'd still stick with Wr-Wr. Less risk and several mid-round Rbs to fill two spots.

Actually 9th (fantasypros weeks 1-17 hlf pt) https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr-rb.php?year=2023&start=1&end=17 Regardless, what indicates Gibbs gets the ball more? Lions offense was so efficient last year, I doubt they'd want to make much change. Especially with Monty playing so well and Gibbs at a slight 5'9" 200 lbs... makes sense why Monty got the goal line bulk. Probably don't want to work-horse him.

That's not exactly fair. Gets a pass rookie year. Lamar Jackson only broke 3,000 passing yards once (barely) in the three years Brown was there and he still amazingly broke 1,000 yds. His first year in Arizona he was on pace to break 1,000 yds til injury. Last year Murray's passer rating sucked first half of season before injury and then passing got even worse when the backup came in. Brown was a highly-touted 1st rounder for a reason, he just landed in some really bad passing teams. This is the best situation he's ever had. However... I'm still not drafting him. Between Rice playing/not playing and the poor history of Wrs in KC (not named Hill), I'm out. He probably has a few big games and might be a decent best ball, but I wouldn't want to rely on him as an every week starter.

Don't know Fuzzy... but with the 10th pick Brown, Wilson, and Nacua should all be available. Collins and Waddle are fine picks at the 3rd/4th turn, but whichever two early Rbs you select will likely disappoint. How do I know? Because the majority of early Rb picks don't live up to expectation. And those picks are your most valuable draft capital. In a 10-teamer you can easily fill two Rb spots along with depth from rounds 5 to 10. Throw in some lotto picks later, work the waivers... Let the competition feel the pain of their early picks disappointing. I can tell you're dead set on drafting an early Rb no matter what I say, and it might work out. Just riskier. If I was FORCED to draft a Rb that early... I'd want Taylor, after the big 3 are gone of course (McCaff, Hall, Bijan). Taylor is in a much better situation, than Gibbs or Barkley.

I do! PPR, Wr-Wr is too obvious especially in a 10-girl league which guarantees numerous starting Rbs in middle rounds. Early picks are your most valuable draft capital. Investing that into the most volatile/unpredictable position is risky. I've hammered reasons why I think Barkley will be the biggest fantasy disappointment this season. Poor metrics, injury risk, less usage than in NY, Hurts steals goal line. He could fall to the 4th rd and I still wouldn't draft him - that's not hyperbole. I think that low of his prospects. Don't love Gibbs considering Monty gets bulk of easy short-yard Tds... 17 attempts inside five, scored 8. Gibbs had 10 attempts inside five, scored 4... he has to earn his the hard way - from distance. That's not reliable. They also split too many carries as Gibbs only had 182 carries last year (granted missed two games), but still... 27 other Rbs finished with more carries - including Montgomery. I love the receptions, but I wouldn't spend a 2nd rounder on him.

Spent 20+ years on this forum and I miss it. But look at the front page topics... unbearable. Mike should create a "Politics" forum so these idiots can annoy each other to death. Til he does, see yall on the mange forum.

Excellent advice. "Draft your guys" - don't over-think the ADP game and miss out on some players you believe in. I'd rather go down in flames with my-guys, than players I didn't particularly want. I don't mind reaching a round (punz) to make that happen.

Fantasypros Rb 14 ESPN Rb 15 FFToday Rb 14 Yahoo Rb 10 ................................... Rb 14 in ppr is typically 4th round.

In last year's Bold Predictions I picked Nico Collins (then Wr 53) to "finish top 25" because of talent and changes in Houston. Despite missing two games he finished Wr 18 (wks 1-17 ppr) and Wr 15 in points per game. One for the good guys! So now Collins is ranked Wr 17. Ugh... not much value, but I do think that's about right. Even with Diggs, he should continue producing. He's a proven asset in Houston, entering 4th year, and much better than Diggs at the downfield stuff, which is Stroud's bread and butter. Diggs at Wr 23 is too rich for my blood. Old, faded horribly last year, new team, poor deep-pass metrics, and number of targets is a huge question. Dell at Wr 32 seems bit high given the target competition. I think he'd be a better best ball pick as he probably has several spike weeks. He's a deep threat, but that usually means a lot of down weeks too.

Good point. Quick Google search... don't see much. Limited examples I read: "Edgerin James, Ricky Williams, Jerome Bettis, Doug Martin." But those are dramatic cases. Probably see some Rb metrics improve occasionally year-to-year... though they ultimately always trend down.

Asking for a trade is one thing... getting traded requires: Another team offering the long-term big-money deal he's demanding & that team giving enough draft capital to satisfy the Niners. Who knows if that happens. But I can see why the Steelers might be interested. They need help in the air department.

Per Fantasypros Advanced RB Stats... Jacobs had 1.3 yds after contact per attempt. By comparison Z. White on that same Raiders team had 2.2. Breece Hall was 2.2, McCaff 2.1. etc. In 2022, Jacobs had an insane 2.4 It was consistent with PlayerProfiler.com rankings in key metrics like: True yac (63rd), yds per touch (49th), juke rate (53rd), breakaway rate (48th), yds created per touch (49th) A pretty steep decline from 2022: True yac (23rd), yds per touch (18th), juke rate (11th), breakaway rate (31st), yds created per touch (13th) I'm not saying he's washed... but he might be. Guess we'll find out this year. I wouldn't want to gamble my 4th round pick on it. Especially not with Loyd there. I will say the saving grace for Jacobs is the receptions, as Loyd ain't taking those. Probably finishes with 50+ receptions.