GobbleDog

Jacobs enters his 6th season with 1,500+ touches and just had a career worst performance - blame it all on the crappy Raiders if ya like, but his stats were good the year prior on a similarly bad team. The Packers o-line should be better, but they also face the most difficult schedule against the run this year. Then there's 3rd round rookie Marshawn Loyd who could eventually become the main goal-line Rb, and potentially take most early down work if Jacob's efficiency doesn't improve. That's a lot of red flags for Rb 14, a mid-4th round pick.

I think I'm out on all Vikings Wrs and Te. Jefferson's Wr 5 discount isn't enough for unknown (likely bad) Qb play and possible reinjury of the hammy which was serious enough to cost him 7 games last year. Addison has the same Qb problem, along with a pending suspension. And nobody knows when Hockenson will return from his torn ACL & MCL or to what form.

Nobody else around here starts topics, so what the heck. "2024" is in the header in case CMH decides to bump this thread in five years and confuse the hell out of everyone. Rankings per FantasyPros (ppr) 1) Ceedee Lamb ADP 1.02. Played 17 games, 181 tar - 135 rec, 1,749 yds (13.0 avg), 29 deep rec (20+ yds), 12 Tds. Finished 1st last year with 403.2 pts or 23.7 per game. Was 5th in '22, and 19th in '21. Extremely consistent last year scoring 10+ pts in every game, a feat only Lamb and Hill achieved. Not much changed in Dallas, other than Rb. Years back I questioned the talent, but after the last two years - hush-yo-mouf... I was wrong. I do wonder being #1 as Prescott probably won't replicate his career best season, but another top 5-ish finish feels safe. 2) Tyreek Hill ADP 1.03. Played 16 games, 171 tar - 119 rec, 1,799 yds (15.1 avg), 29 deep rec, 13 Tds. Finished 2nd last year with 378.4 pts or 23.5 per game. Was 2nd in '22 and 6th in '21. What can ya say... he's incredible and perfectly fits the Dolphins speed system. Turned 30 yo recently, but he's so damn fast even a slight drop is still faster than everyone on the field. Team hasn't changed and feels like one of the safest picks in the draft. 3) Amon-Ra St. Brown ADP 1.04. Played 16 games, 164 tar - 119 rec, 1,515 yds (12.7 avg), 24 deep rec, 10 Tds. Finished 3rd last year with 330.9 pts or 20.7 per game. Was 7th in '22 and 21st in '21. Wr Josh Reynolds left, but not much else changed. Brown and La Porta are the backbone of the offense, which also boasts a strong running game with Gibbs and Monty. Brown doesn't get quite as many deep targets as other elite Wr's, but plenty of volume. Should easily finish top 10 and another top 3 is quite possible. .............................................................. 4) Ja'Marr Chase ADP 1.05. Played 16 games, 145 tar - 100 rec, 1,216 yds (12.2 avg), 14 deep rec, 14 Tds. Finished 11th last year with 262.7 pts or 16.4 per game. Was 11th in '22 (missed games) and 5th in '21. Burrow only played 10 games last year, so the 11th place finish wasn't too shabby. Burrow recently had surgery on his throwing hand, but reports are he should be good to go. So this pick really depends on what you believe. Tee Higgins is threatening a hold-out and Tyler Boyd left town, so perhaps Chase sees more double teams? Regardless, the "experts" I listen to say Burrow will be fine and given Chase's sick talent - double-teams be damned, I foresee a top 5-ish finish. 5) Justin Jefferson ADP 1.06. Played 10 games, 110 tar - 68 rec, 1,078 yds (15.8 avg), 25 deep rec, 5 Tds. Finished 33rd last year with 202.2 pt or 20.2 per game. Was 1st in '22 and 4th in '21. Missed seven games last year due to a hamstring. Kirk Cousins is out replaced by Sam Darnold and rookie McCarthy. Jefferson only played five games without Cousins at the end season averaging 18.6 pts per game, though the average is skewed by a week 18 spike (36 pts) against a Lions team which had already wrapped up the playoffs (but fighting for a bye). Don't know if Lions benched starters, but without that game Jefferson only averaged 14.2 pts per game in the prior four. So, what to expect from one of the most talented Wr's with Darnold and possibly a rookie? Ugh... The impossible question, but looking at how his points dropped in the final games and how Chase declined without Burrow, a top 5 finish seems overly optimistic. I'm leaning top 10-ish, but even that feels risky - god-forbid the hamstring problem returns. Might have to pass and let someone else roll these dice. 6) A.J. Brown ADP 1.09. Played 17 games, 158 tar - 106 rec, 1,456 yds (13.7), 21 deep rec, 7 Tds. Finished 5th last year with 289.6 pts or 17.0 per game. Was 6th in '22 and 32nd in '21 (missed games). Once Mr. Consistent, he dipped some last year having fairly low scoring games in the final four. The Eagles fired the o-coordinator for last year's offensive failures and brought in Kellen Moore who was recently fired by the Chargers (supposedly because he refused to run and always wanted to 'light up the scoreboard'). Sounds like good news for Eagles Wrs. Not much else changed in the offense other than adding Barkley, but Hurts hasn't throw much to Rbs anyway. Brown scored 11 Tds in '22, but that dipped last year along with his average reception (was 17.0). So how will the new pass-happy coordinator effect Brown? Seems like a lock for another top 10 finish with potential for another top 5. ............................................................................... 7) Garrett Wilson ADP 1.10. Played 17 games, 168 tar - 95 rec, 1,042 yds (11.0 avg), 11 deep rec, 3 Tds. Finished 26th last year with 213.2 pts or 12.5 per game. Was 21st in '22. Everything came crashing down with Rogers going out game 1. Fans still haven't seen "the amazing talent" Wilson supposedly possesses in his first two years, but both seasons are attributed to atrocious Qb play. Now with Rogers healthy (assuming he stays healthy), will we finally be amazed? Who knows, but good lord the volume. If Rogers throws to him 168 times, I'd certainly expect a top 10 finish. There is the slight possibility that the Jets are just too good. Great defense, solid running game with a RB who catches a ton... and Rodgers known to milk the clock. Big leads, rushing, and clock killing isn't great for Wr stats. But it's a long season. This feels like a leap of faith, but I'm willing to take the leap. 8)) Puka Nacua ADP 1.11. Played 17 games, 160 tar -105 rec, 1,486 yds (14.2 avg), 25 deep rec, 6 Tds. Finished 4th last year with 298.5 pts or 17.6 per game. Not much changed in L.A. but Kupp should be healthy to start the season - who didn't look right all year and now he's 31 yo. Kupp missed the first four games last year, but while playing together Nacua's average points per game was slightly lower at 15.6. So was Puka's rookie year a flash in the pan or a sign of things to come? Rams coach Sean McVay seems to have a way of scheming players open and force feeding them the ball as he did with Kupp for years and Nacua last year. Stafford clearly has a rapport with him and he's shown he can handle the work. No outcome wouldn't shock here... a dip to 20th, or a Kupp-like season finishing top 3. Considering what he did last year... I'm inclined to agree with this ADP. 9) Devante Adams ADP 2.03. Played 17 games, 175 tar - 103 rec, 1,144 yds (11.1 avg), 13 deep rec, 8 Tds. Finished 10th last year with 265.4 pts or 15.6 per game. Was 3rd in '22 and 2nd in '21. Last year the Raiders had Qb's O'Connell and Garoppolo. Garoppolo is out, and in comes Minshew. O'Connell played 10 games with Adams last year in which he averaged 14.9 points per game. Raiders added Brock Bowers at Te who's supposedly a "generational Te talent" (two years in a row Raiders drafted early Te - 2nd rd Mayer '22). Who knows how much Bowers affects Adams volume, though might remove some pressure. O'Connell was a rookie last year and should theoretically improve, but nobody knows if Minshew or O'Connell starts the season. Amazing Adams hasn't demanded a trade as this garbage isn't what he signed up for. Regardless, Adams is now 31 yo (turns 32 in Dec) but is (was) one of the elite Wrs. Pure volume (175 tar) didn't result in many big plays, but did equate to a 10th place finish last year. It's anyone's guess how much volume he gets this year, if Qb play improves, if age takes a toll, or if Bowers changes the situation... this is a tough nut to crack. Way too much uncertainty for me to invest such early draft capital. .............................................................................................. 10) Marvin Harrison Jr. ADP 2.04. The 4th overall draft pick out of Ohio State was the first Wr selected in '24. He's supposedly way more athletic than his father, with all the receiver skills NFL teams want. Selected by the Cardinals who weren't good last year and aren't supposed to be very good this year (6.5 o/u win total). Kyler Murray has never surpassed 4,000 passing yards in his five year career and his passer rating isn't great (ranked 20th last year). Considering all that... Wr 10? Even if the kid is amazing - which nobody really knows yet at the NFL level, the ADP seems incredibly optimistic. Maybe he finishes top 20... maybe. Top 10? God bless anyone who does take that leap and it works out. I won't be sharing that glory.

That's probably the best thing to say about Zeke: 50+ receptions and 5+ Tds guarantees at least 30th. What I can't figure is what are the Cowboys gonna do if he's only averaging 3.5 ypc? Are they really giving 175+ carries to a Rb who's that inefficient? His metrics last year were unspeakably bad. Maybe a better o-line helps along with defenses respecting the passing game, but still we're talking about a 29 yo Rb with mega millage. Even his last year in Dallas ('22) the metrics weren't great. To make matters worse, he had a pass-blocking grade of 31.7 last year - career low. Makes ya wonder if he'll even be on the field on 3rd downs. If Zeke looks lifeless in training camp, I think there's a strong chance Cowboys make a trade... they have four 5th round draft picks next year.

I've tried to justify reasons why Foreman might be a worthwhile last-pick-of-draft flyer. Analyzed stats, contracts, situations... in the end, even if Foreman did steal the job, here comes Chubb who probably never gets back to anything reliable fantasy wise. Sucks because this is a Kevin Stefanski team - just run it baby! Ultimately I probably won't invest in any Browns player. Watson has been an unmitigated disaster which hurts everyone's value (including Cooper and Njoku), on top of the confusing Rb situation. What a hot mess. The Browns might be decent with their stout defense, but fantasy wise it's a tough nut to crack.

Browns Rb situation reminds me of the Chargers. Teams destined to run, but noone great to do it. Ford didn't impress with his 4.0 ypc last year. Doesn't seem built for work-horse. So the Browns signed D'onte Foreman who's been fairly effective in recent years. Chubb didn't even start running on his rebuilt knee until April (same knee he tore in college), which is bit surprising considering the injury happened in Week 2. So a little red flag there. The way I see it playing out... Ford splits with Foreman until Chubb is ready. Then they all split, because they won't just hand Chubb his old workload on that knee. Sprinkle in a little Nyheim Hines for good measure and it's a fantasy cluster. Sucks because they all have dirt cheap adps and the Browns are going to run.

Shows commitment to running game. Bowers will do his share of run-blocking and has skills for it. That 2nd rounder out of Oregon is a run-block specialist. Throw in a 3rd rd lineman and free-agents... o-line should be stout. Again with the "bad team = worthless Rb" theory. I don't buy it and even I did, I expect the Raiders to be way more competitive. Can't wait for this season to get going... I got a whole lot of crowing to do! Or eat crow. One or the other.

Half. Would've been 4 out of 6, but Conner missed four games (had 208 carries). Redskins didn't do it because Brian Robinson missed two games, they had 3 Rbs sharing carries, and a whopping 20% of all passes went to Rbs. Chargers split backfield and Ekler had 74 targets on top of his 179 carries. Why can't we compare White to Henry and Barkley? Those teams committed to bell-cow work, even though the Rbs finished with just 4.1 and 3.9 ypc respectively. Seems like a perfect comparison. I'm not seeing the implied correlation between bad teams and limited carries for the lead Rb. I'm more concerned with a team's commitment to bell-cow usage and no real rushing competition - not even from the Qb. Even if teams are losing late in games, might that just mean more Rb receptions? Bad team = worthless Rb ... too simplistic.

"12 carries per game" ... Really low estimate with Antonio Pierce as coach - president of the bell-cow conservation society. Went on record about wanting his back hitting "the magic number of 20 carries". Coached the final nine games as interim with lead back averaging 20.4 carries. White averaged 21 per game with Jacobs out. Raiders beefed up o-line spending a 1st rd pick on Te, then a 2nd and 3rd on linemen, and signed a free-agent center. "Non-factor in passing game" ... White averaged over 3 targets per game with Jacobs out. Jacobs himself averaged over 4 targets per game. Players like Gus Edwards/Travis Henry are non-factors in the passing game. Averaging 3 to 4+ targets per game isn't. "they win 5 games" ... I'd bet over 6.5, but who knows (won 8 last year... defense allowed 9th fewest points, and offense could surprise with improved o-line, better qb play, and phenom Bowers as Te). Losing isn't great for Rbs, but not the death nail either. Barkley finished 9th in ppg, Connor finished 13th ppg, Brian Robinson finished 16th ppg. Those guys played for teams with 6 or fewer wins. In 2022, Raiders only won 6 with Jacobs finishing 3rd ppg.

I don't like any of 'em other than Chase. But back to the point - I like Metcalf's Wr 20 adp. "Geno Smith" is why he's so cheap and I think that's a mistake.

Wrs who finished top 15 with bad Qbs. Geno doesn't need pro-bowl stats for Metcalf to out-perform adp.

To hell with Geno. Elite Qb play isn't necessary to vault Wrs to the top 20. Pedestrian will do. Last year: D.J. Moore 8th Chase 10th - without Burrow half the season D. Adams 11th Pittman 13th Thielen 15th Td's are fluky. I'll take the volume of red-zone targets all day.

That's the point - if Geno doesn't rebound, it's still a solid pick. If he does rebound (and there's reason to be optimistic he will)... value.

DK Metcalf career finishes rookie to present wks 1-17 ppr: 32, 7, 14, 16, 19 26 yo Alpha Wr who was targeted 20 times inside the 15-yd line last year - second only to Ceedee Lamb (21) and tied with Tyreek Hill. Seattle has a new o-coordinator from Huskies who ran a fast-tempo offense with big passing stats. Current adp... Wr 20. He's supposed to do worse than last year's disappointing season? Seems like an incredibly safe pick with big upside.

New Hampshire -vs- Central Michigan Al Bundy once scored 4 Tds in a single game at Polk High! Seriously though Laube carried that New Hampshire team all year and did have a high RAS score (9.2) at the combine. If Zamir gets injured, I'll take a waiver on Laube over worthless Mattison.

Not cutting Miles Sanders after June 1st could indicate otherwise. They also signed old Rashaad Penny who played for the coach in Seattle. Even if Brooks is ready from the start, I doubt he gets a full workload right off the bat. They'll probably ease him in. Brooks current 10th rd adp looks great right now considering what he might be doing by mid-season... but the hype train is just starting. By late August he could very well be 6th+- rd depending on preseason. Which might be higher than I'm willing to pay considering he won't get the full work all season, re-injury risk, and with Carolina finishing dead last offensively last year.

Never had the entire off-season to prepare as full time starter... perennial back-up for 5 years. Yet a career passer rating of 90.2. Had some good games last year. From what I hear, the rookie Te Brock Bowers is about to idiot-proof whoever is the Raiders qb is. Adams is still there. If Minshew starts as I suspect he will, I bet he surprises.

From the way scouts talk about him... good lord. Sounds like a beast. Last two years at FSU, Benson finished #1 out of 226 qualified Rbs in forced missed tackles per attempt. Once he breaks into the second level, his size and speed come into play which created so many explosive runs. Stud of an athlete and multi-skilled - motions out to slot and displays high-level receiver skills. As a receiver, Benson was in the 86th percentile in forced missed tackles per reception. He can sell play action and work his way through the line of scrimmage to get open. Relatively low-millage thanks to FSU's coach not working players to dust. Obviously the problem is James Connor who's coming off the greatest season of his career. But he's 29 yo and the Cards are going to want to kick the tires on their offensive weapon. I'm guessing they split carries pretty evenly til mid-season. Then it becomes Benson's backfield.

Without looking, I wouldn't have guessed Love finished with the 2nd most passing Tds (32) and 4th most Tds overall (36). I knew he had a good year, but not that good. Impressive. It's hard debating Qb value because scoring systems are so different: 3 pt -vs- 6 pt passing Tds, yardage bonus's, completion pts (yes, that's a thing). Love doesn't run much and his 4 rushing Tds last year is rare for Qbs with 50 or fewer rushes, so that probably drops a bit. But the passing Tds? Nothing would surprise - he's shown he's capable of 30+, but has only done it once and the Packers don't have the greatest Wrs or Te. Overall probably good value, but not on my radar.

Absolutely. But in games he doesn't score... 43 yds, 0 rec, and a cloud of dust. Gonna be some clunkers. But for a 10th round pick, I'll take the random Tds as a spot start. And hope he magically finds the fountain of youth.

Look what sheer volume did for R. White and Etienne last year... neither particularly skilled or on high-scoring teams. Jacobs finished Rb 3 in '22 on a rather pathetic Raiders team with insane volume. Who are these "decent backs" behind White you speak of? Surely not 26 yo Alexander Mattison who hasn't broken 4 ypc in three years? Or 31 yo journeyman Ameer Abdullah? Or 6th rd rookie out of New Hampshire Dylan Laube? Please... this is White's backfield. I also think the Raiders are going to be better than expected. Minshew might look like a 70's porn star, but he actually had several decent games last year. They still have Adams, Meyers, and if Te Brock Bowers is half as good as scouts are touting, they'll be moving the ball. I'm not projecting White into the top 10, but he's definitely got a shot which is incredible for a 7th rd pick. Like Al Davis says "Just volume baby!"

Zamir White not getting enough love. "Raiders suck and Minshew is Qb... no thanks" - I get it. Coach Antonio Pierce loves bell-horses and work-cows... whatever. As interim last year he talked about wanting his Rb (then Jacobs) to get the "magic number of 20+ carries per game." He followed through on that claim. New o-coordinator from Chicago is also committed to the run. Raiders invested in their o-line with a free-agent center and using 2nd and 3rd rd picks on lineman, not to mention a 1st rounder on Te Bowers. White (4th rd out of Georgia) had four starts while Jacobs was out last year and his carries... 17, 22, 20, 25 - along with 13 targets. Had 7 runs of 10+ yds in those games. Dude has some burst. His only competition - Alexander Mattison who's done virtually nothing his forgettable five-year career. Barring injury White should easily surpass 250 carries and could very well get 300+, along with a sizable chunk of receptions. And he gets all the goal line work. We're talking about a 7th round pick.

Harbaugh did personally select him (albeit 6th rd), and supposedly that bowling ball - low to ground running style is what he likes. Scouts say Vidal is a decent receiver, but didn't do it much at Troy as that wasn't their game. Finished #2 in forced missed tackles among Rbs last year. Might take over the top spot by out-performing, or pure necessity due to injuries... both seem reasonably possible.

Coach Harbaugh - known for pounding the ball, of course hires o-coordinator Greg Roman who from '19 to '22 made Baltimore a top five rushing team every season. Chargers lose both top receiving options and basically have no Te worth mentioning. So one thing is quite clear - the Chargers are going to run, run, and run some more. In comes 29 yo injury plagued Gus Edwards with a pathetic 30 total receptions over a 5-year career. I was thrilled to get Edwards off waivers after Mitchell went down last year and immediately Youtubed Gus's highlights. Color me disappointment. Plods forward until touched, then falls down. And those were the "highlights." Next... JK Dobbins who had ACL/LCL tears in '21, and then the dreaded Achilles tear last year - death nail for Rbs. Signed a dirt cheap 1-year contract (paltry $50k guaranteed). Might not make the team if doesn't impress in training camp. Next... 6th rd pick out of Troy - bowling ball Kimani Vidal. What a maddening situation. A team guaranteed to run the hell out of the ball, with nobody great to tote the rock. Out of principle I'll have to draft Gus if he actually falls to 9th/10th rd, but I won't be proud of it. Rather hoping to get Vidal with the last pick of the draft.

Looks more like "random distribution" to me. 4 of the top five came from rounds 3 to 15. Only 2 first-round Rbs actually finished top ten, and just one (McCaff) lived up to expectation as Henry was Rb5. Rb variance makes it too risky to invest my most valuable draft capital. I prefer Quantity later, over Quality early. Shotgun middle-rounds and see which one's turn into gems. Preserve early picks for more predictable positions.