GobbleDog

As I've said, I think a few of the big name Rbs are a bit over-valued (Barkley, Kamara, Mixon)... but I can't say that about Henry. Metrics are solid - in spite of age, usage and playing for a bad Titans team. Incredible. My one concern is the Ravens replaced 3 starting o-lineman which is always a bit alarming. I also wonder if the Ravens might limit the 30 yo to a small degree for a playoff push, maybe 250+ touches rather than 300+.?. Who knows, the same was said of McCaff last year and that never panned out. Still those concerns aren't enough for me to try to talk anyone out of him. He could very well finish with the most Tds and lord knows how many yards. Dude's a beast.

You have way more faith in Richardson's passing game than me. Maybe he's great... nobody knows. Only completed 54.7% in college, and last year's NFL - 59.5% (despite a low 6.9 yds per comp). That has to concern anyone drafting Pittman.

He's the one I thought everyone would be talking about. Scouting guru's can't say enough great things about him. The Raiders like him so much they used a 1st rd pick when he surprisingly fell to pick 13 due to all Qbs drafted... even though the Raiders previously spent a 2nd rd pick on Te Michael Mayer the year prior.

Wr 12 - Michael Pittman Jr. 156 tar - 109 rec, 1,152 yds and 4 Tds, finished 13th. Was 20th in '22, and 21st in '21. Entering 5th year and appears to be at the peak of skill. Coming off career best season, though with Minshew as Qb most of the season. Wr 12 implies Anthony Richardson will keep things going just as they were. Richardson still has a lot to prove (to me anyways) passing wise only playing 2 full games last year - completion rate 56.4%, though yardage projected to 3,600 yds. Richardson only started 13 total games in college - finishing with 53.8% completion, 17 Tds / 9 Ints. And that was against some bottom dwellers - South FL, Kentucky, Vandy, E. Washington. I was surprised he went #4 overall (and I'm a Gator fan), but clearly his running game is what GM's want. Week 1 last year Pittman had 8 rec for 97 yds and a Td. Looks good, though the Td came from a behind the line of scrimmage pass which Pittman broke loose for 40 yds. In fact all 3 of Richardson's Td passes were short - other 2 were Te dump-offs. Pittman is a great Wr and Richardson is a great running Qb who might eventually be a true dual threat... but right now Wr 12 feels like a stretch.

6.03 Joe Burrow - decent 8.03 Zack Moss - awesome Didn't love the rest. GOBBLE

Kamara's salary cap is $18.6 mill this year - highest on the team. It balloons to $29 mill in '25. Unless the deal is restructured, this will certainly be Kamara's final season in New Orleans. Kamara knows this and wants a new a deal... held out of minicamp last week. The Saints surprisingly didn't draft any Rb's, indicating they believe Miller is their future. He looked good coming back in Week 18 getting 13 carries with 5.6 ypc and a Td - Kamara was out that game. With Kamara headed out the door, they're probably going to want to kick the tires more with Miller, especially if Kamara's efficiency doesn't improve. There's a new o-coordinator in town, so it'll be interesting if Kamara keeps getting the reception volume.

Te 24) Ben Sinnott - Redskins 2nd rd pick out of Kansas St. Plays with 1st rd pick Qb Jayden Daniels. I hear the kid is mega-talented... one of the best blockers coming out of college, and can break tackles for monster gains. Still, the situation doesn't look promising - rookie Te AND rookie Qb, on a rebuilding team, with new coach and coordinator... doesn't sound like a recipe for immediate success.

Certainly, though his ability is dwindling. Regardless - let me rant... How hard is it to catch a pass from a Qb 5 to 10 yards away? Sure, some are slightly better than others, but difficult to believe there's that big of difference - they're all elite athletes.?. It's not like they run particularly difficult routes. Obviously NFL coaches know better than me, but to this layman... Rb's "pass catching ability" always seemed a bit overrated.

I knew that was coming.

I do like Miller's adp and could be a worthwhile lottery pick. Nobody knows what to expect at this point in his young career, especially while sharing touches with Kamara, and playing for the boring Saints led by one of the most boring Qb's of all time - Carr. I certainly can't project Miller into top 20. But I bet he finishes with more rushing yards and rushing Tds than Kamara. I would say more total fantasy points, but for Kamara's damn ridiculous reception volume assuming the Saints keep going to that well for some pointless reason.

I do like Stevenson at the Rb19 adp (early-6th rd). He was Rb 19 before getting hurt in week 13 last year, despite of having a bad season (4.0 ypc) on a terrible team. He averaged 4.6 and 5.0 ypc the previous years and had 69 receptions in '22, finishing as Rb 7.

I'll bump this thread and happily eat a big plate of crow if I turn out to be wrong about Barkley. Could happen - I was wrong once or twice in the past.

Alvin Kamara (RB 14) early 4th rd. About to turn 29 and father time has taken a toll. 180 carries last season... none broke 20 yds. Only two other Rbs didn't break 20 yards at least once with 75+ carries - K. Hunt, and J. Williams, both with significantly fewer carries. His longest run over the past three seasons (643 carries) was 30 yds in 2021. Ypc the past three years: 3.7, 4.0, 3.9 - type of stats that usually get Rbs cut. Last season Kamara had 12 runs inside the five, scored just 3 times. I could cite lots of metrics, but trust me - not good. Juke rate, evaded tackles, breakaway rate, yds per touch, etc. near the bottom of the league in most every category. He caught a whopping 75 receptions last year which is how he finished Rb11, but his yards per rec dropped to a career low - 6.2. Kamara's stats look like a Rb who's washed. It'd be surprising for the Saints to keep pouring water down that bottomless well.

Jefferson with Darnold/McCarthy... Wr 5 or higher does feel like a stretch. Not to mention the possibility of re-injuring the hamstring. Deebo finished 15th last year despite missing two games. Last year's finish was mainly because of 12 total Tds, as receptions and yardage weren't great. Tds aren't reliable, so I get the lower ADP at Wr 19. But coach Shanahan's penchant for offense and Deebo's sick metrics... (yac #9, juke rate #1, yds per route #12, etc...) Hard to imagine he finishes much lower than Wr 19.

The Eagles gave Barkley a 3-year deal with $26 mil guaranteed so he'll get volume. The o-line is an upgrade, there's no Rb competition, and maybe the new o-coordinator gets Hurts to throw more to Rbs than in recent years. Maybe. Barkley has injury history with declining metrics last year (blame the Giants if ya like). 352 touches in '22 and 288 touches last year (despite missing 3 games - injury). He's now 27 yo and ya have to wonder if can handle another 350+ touches and will he be healthy in those final weeks critical for fantasy? One certainty is Hurts will continue cannibalizing goal line work, which puts a hard cap on Barkley's value in my mind. The Rb is the riskiest position to invest in fantasy football, regardless of situation. But Barkley's early 2nd round (Rb 6) seems particularly risky - and without goal line work, the reward isn't what it could be. God bless drafters who make the leap of faith and it works out. I'm more risk-averse with my early draft capital.

Saquon Barkley's ADP of 2.02 (Rb6) is bananas. Last year his metrics declined dramatically probably from age, injuries and high millage. Hurts is going to steal goal line Tds and doesn't throw much to Rbs - last year Swift (known as a pass-catching back) only had 39 rec; in '22 Gainwell was the Eagles top receiving back... 23. I don't see how anyone can justify an early 2nd rounder. Name recognition goes a long way I guess.

Williams had multiple tears - ACL, LCL and PCL. Some Rb's never bounce back from that. Last year's performance wasn't encouraging, but hopefully another year removed helps.

Last year Rashee Rice had 79 rec, 938 yds, and 7 Tds... finishing as Wr 27 (ppr). It's the highest any Wr (not named Tyreek Hill) has ever had with Mahomes. Chiefs Wrs = fools gold. We've all been fooled at one time or another. Until Kelce retires or falls off a cliff... I'm out.

Spears finished 34th last year in spite of 70 tar for 52 rec. It was lack of Td's (4 total) and yardage that held him back. Pollard is no Travis Henry, but he's going to eat a chunk of the ground work. But the biggest problem holding the entire offense back ... Will Levis was awful last year. Spears showed some explosiveness last year and I'd prefer him over Pollard too. It just seems like a lot of unknowns... how much goal line work and receptions Pollard gets, and how much (if any) Will Levis improves.

I recently heard stats being discussed about WIlliams performance last year.... not good. ProFootballFocus grades Rb's at the end of the season and out the Rb's who qualified to be graded, Williams ranked 56th out of 60 Rbs. Per NextGenStats Williams finished last in rushing yds over expectation and second to last in percentage of yds run over expectation. Out of the 23 Rbs with 200+ carries, Williams had the fewest runs over 20 yds (2). Obviously he was coming off the knee injury and maybe he gets better, which happens sometimes. Or maybe this is just who he now, which also happens. To top off Williams woes, there's articles circulating that he might not even make the final roster. Hopefully for him, the off-season conditioning improves his game and he hangs on to the top spot in Denver. Otherwise, say hello to Denver's Jalil McLoughlin who graded out as ProFootballFocus's 13th best Rb, and finished 3rd in their elusiveness rating. His breakaway percentage of 28% ranked 15th in the league and the dude has reliable hands with zero drops last year. If Sean Payton is looking for another Alvin Kamara type, he might have found him. Denver's o-coordinator has recently been hyping him up as well.

Vikings4ever. Runners up - worm and robb

'21) Let's toss out his god awful rookie year with Urban Meyer... that's fair. '22) 4,113 yds, 25 Td / 8 Int, 95.2 pass rating '23) 4,016 yds, 21 Td / 14 Int, 88.5 pass rating ................................................................ 5 years with $200 mill guaranteed.?. Bananas. NY Giants Tommy DeVito finished with a higher passer rating last year. Perhaps Lawrence gets better eventually, but based on last season's stats, what the hell makes them think he will? Just pure hope? That's what the contract seems like. Hope... and desperation.

Kupp finished 40th last year, but his 12 game stats were on pace for 84 rec, 1,044 yds, and 7 Tds, over a full season. In ppr, that would've ranked him 18th... way higher than I would've guessed. He's currently ranked Wr 22. If he were likely to play an entire season, the current ranking might make sense. But he turns 31 in a few days, missed 9 games in '21 and 5 games in '22. Anyone believe he plays the entire season AND continues the pace he was on last year?

Pre-2002 division rival.

Think he meant Arizona is your division rival. As a Dolphin fan, I don't care how the Cards do. I won't be drafting a rookie Wr on a bad Cards team led by a mediocre qb, with my 2nd pick. If he proves me wrong, so be it. I can live with that.