GobbleDog

11 seasons with a win-loss record ... 77-92 Playoff record ... 0-1 Career Qb rating ... 92.8 meh

Carr will forever be remembered as ... meh. Perhaps the greatest meh of all-time. The Saints were already in for a long crappy season, but it just got worse. Qb options... Shough, Rattler, Haener Wouldn't be surprising if all of them get a few starts this season.

(Rb 23) Pollard - missed a game and finished Rb 21. 260 carries (4.2 ypc) and 41 receptions. That volume usually results in a top 15+ finish, but only 6 total Tds held him back - though entire team only had 8. Problem was the offense was terrible, defense abysmal (allowed most points), and the o-line ranked near the bottom. Game script wasn't good for Pollard as they were usually losing by half time and defenses had nothing fear from the passing game. Impressive Pollard even managed 4.2 ypc in that mess. Enter Qb Cam Ward who's mobile, but not necessarily a running Qb. The Titans signed a big name o-lineman from Detroit, but he's 35 and not much else changed to fix the o-line. Spears missed 5 games last year which helped inflate Pollard's volume some, but even when healthy Spears didn't impress. Titans drafted a Rb the late 6th, but he's a short-yardage guy and at best a change of pace. Doubtful he steals much, if any, goal line work. Bottom line... Pollard's durability probably means another year of big volume which means low-floor - at worst another Rb 21 finish. But the team's sad state of affairs probably means the best one could hope for Rb 15+-. So relatively safe in that respect and reasonable for a late-6th pick.

Learned a little more about the Aaron Jones situation. The Vikes didn't just get Jordan Mason out of free-agency... they traded a 5th rd pick in '25 & 6th rd pick in '26 with the Niners, before signing him to the 2-year deal with $7 mill guaranteed and a max value of $12 mill. Aaron Jones had a good fantasy season with lots of receptions and a healthy 4.5 ypc. But inside the five yd line... 13 carries for NEGATIVE 2 yds, and just 3 Tds - awful. This is reportedly one of the big reasons the Vikes aggressively pursued Mason - he's gonna get most if not all the goal-line carries and short yardage situations. Even Jones himself recently told reporters his role is going to change yielding to Mason. He's 20 lbs heavier, a great interior runner, and after three seasons has a carrier average of 5.3 ypc. Given the situation, Jones could finish with a meager 4+- Tds this year. He'll still be the pass catcher, but he's 30 years old with a history of getting dinged up, and last year's full work load could work against him. Some speculate that as the season the progresses, it's quite possible that Jones and Mason's roles reverse and Mason becomes the lead back with Jones as the change of pace. Given all that ... Jones Rb 21 adp suddenly doesn't look so great. Food for thought.

Not "likely" - they're definitely going with JJ. But I get the sense the Vikes coach is bit of a Qb whisperer - much like Andy Reid. Doesn't seem to matter who he's got, they all succeed. Don't expect much offensive drop-off from that. Jones main issue is staying healthy, though he finally did it last year and showed he can still be very productive. Aside from health, the other concern is Jordan Mason signing - 2 years $10.5 mill. Vikes are gonna want some return on that and it probably cuts into Jones touches. Also might help keep him healthy, so perhaps a trade-off. Still Jones at Rb 21 put him around mid-6th round. A fair price in my mind.

I've been saying that about Henry the past three years, and yeah. I give up... he's inhuman. Also another Rb who benefited from a great run blocking o-line with a Yards-Before-Contact per attempt rate of 3.1, third place only to Barkley and Gibbs. From that list of top 7 ranked Rbs... I'd be most nervous about McCaffrey. Missed significant time in 3 of the last 6 years. Now entering his 10th season and about to turn 29. Mid-2nd round isn't nearly enough discount. Regardless, I won't be drafting any of them. '24 adp -vs- actual finish... the top Rbs correlated much better than the top Wrs. That almost never happens. Lighting might strike twice, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Of all the players I was wrong about last year... I was DEAD WRONG about Barkley. Metrics were on the decline, didn't expect the volume, and a bunch of other stuff that sounds ridiculous now. The one thing I ignored that everyone kept saying "yeah, but that o-line will make him great." Turns out they were right - more than they even realized. Quickly became evident - Barkley popped through the line (showed more agility/speed than I expected) and ran for first downs/Tds completely untouched. It was too easy. Most Rbs finished the season with about 2.4 Yards-Before-Contact-Per-Attempt. But Barkley... led all Rbs at 3.8. Next closest was Gibbs at 3.3. As much as I'd love to join your bandwagon and call Barkley a potential disappointment, I've lost all credibility on that subject. And considering that o-line I wouldn't dare try.

Jags let go of Wr Christian Kirk, Te Evan Engram, and now Gabe Davis. They also let go a bunch of no-names... Wr Devin Duvernay, Te Luke Farrell, Wr Tim Jones, Te Josiah Deguara, Wr Josh Reynolds. Total revamp of receiving options.

More than a couple. In '23 Hall had six games with 20+ fantasy points (ppr). Only McCaff had more. Regardless, which anchor Rb do you recommend avoiding this year? Just for discussion sake - doesn't matter to me... I'm Wr guy. 1. Bijan 2. Barkley 3. Gibbs 4. Achane 5. Jeanty 6. McCaff 7. Henry

Giants 4th rd pick... Cameron Skattebo (currently Rb 41). From what scouts say - "tough, gritty, bruiser" does sound like Alstott. Probably gets goal line and short yardage work. Gotta worry how many total carries he gets with Tracy and Singletary still in town. Might be boom or bust each week with goal line Tds.

Yes... "Sean Payton." I'm old, and it's still early in the season. Cut me some slack.

Dang... apparently so. Here's a couple articles - first about how high Redskins are about their 7th Round pick (jeesh). The other about a possible Robinson to Chicago trade. Seems strange to me. Trading a productive commodity in Robinson and banking on a 7th rounder. Guess we'll see what happens over the next few months.

I had high hopes for Pickens last year finally getting a decent Qb... but every Wr metric you can think of - he absolutely stunk. I guess he'll be better in Dallas, sure as hell can't do any worse. He's not on my fantasy radar. Ranked Wr 33.... yeah, no thanks.

2024 ADP vs actual finish, noticed something unusual - very few Rbs missed more than a handful of games to injury - sorry McCaff drafters, he was an outlier. The few early/mid Rbs who didn't live up to ADP simply under-performed for whatever reason. In year's past, it was an extreme mix of injuries and under-performance. The data usually proved why drafting Rbs early was quite risky. Not last year. Among the 15 top ranked Rbs, only 3 were total disasters (McCaff, Etienne, Pacheco) and 2 were disappointments (Hall, Taylor). The others either met or exceeded ADP. Even old-man Alvin Kamara stayed healthy until Wk 16, and still finished 7 spots higher than his ADP. More RBBC systems reducing injuries - better medicine... or just a statistical anomaly.?. Whatever the reason, 2024 was unusually good for Rbs.

1) Citizen Bull 13-1 11) Flying Mohawk 28-1 2) Neoequos 38-1 12) East Avenue 39-1 3) Final Gambit 15-1 13) Publisher 30-1 4) Rodriguez 9-1 Scratched 14) Tiztastic 20-1 5) American Promise 12-1 15) Render Judgment 16-1 6) Admire Daytona 39-1 16) Coal Battle 24-1 7) Luxor Cafe 8-1 17) Sandman 5-1 8)) Journalism 4-1 18) Sovereignty 9-1 9) Burnham Square 17-1 19) Chunk of Gold 27-1 10) Grande 18-1 Scratched 20) Owen Almighty 37-1 21) Baeza 17-1 Odds updated May 3, 2:40 pm. Post time: May 3, 6:57 pm. Gentlemen, get your dollar bills ready!

Coming around the stretch with Journalism mowing them down, I thought he had it. At least the system held up - top 2 in the major preps. Props to Sovereignty for finding speed he'd never showed before. Had the field down to him and Journalism... and chose poorly. Chalk up another top Derby finish for jockey Flavian Prat on Baeza. Dude can ride. Win Place Show 1) Sovereignty $17.96 $7.50 $5.58 2) Journalism $4.94 $3.70 3) Baeza $8.38 4) Final Gambit Exacta - $48.32 $1 Trifecta - $231.12 $1 Superfecta $1,682.27

Good luck everyone! The sun shines bright on my ole Kentucky home...

Coal might hit the board... but I'd be surprised if he won. 29 of last 33 winners had a Beyer speed of 95 or better on their resume. Coal's best is 91, but it wasn't even from his last race - only posted 88 at Arkansas. Might be partly attributed to the ridiculous early pace in that race, but still... he's gonna need to do a lot better here.

Go back and watch a Laugh In show.... terrible. They must've been starved for comedy in the 60's.

That'd be incredible. Supposedly, he'll play more offense so might be hard to get that defense trophy.

Offense Defense Rb) Aston Jeanty +250 Lb) Abdul Carter +250 Qb) Cameron Ward +300 Lb) Jalon Walker +750 Wr) Travis Hunter +700 Cb) Travis Hunter +800 Wr) Tetairoa McMillan +900 Dt) Mason Graham +1200 Rb) Omarion Hampton +1400 De) Shemar Stewart +1700 ........................................................................................ From that list I think Hampton has the best chance at good odds. He's on the Chargers with Harbaugh likely to give him 200+ carries. For better odds I'd consider Denver Rb RJ Harvey at +2500. Defense... Graham. Browns already have a good defense so that'll make him look even better.

Rewatched that 2025 Arkansas Derby - strange race with a 9 horse field. The dead favorite (0.9 odds) Cornucopian got into speed duel right off the bat with some long-shot, setting an insane unsustainable pace and both faded badly in the final turn creating weird results ... sorta like when 80-1 Rich Strike won the Derby. Sandman (third favorite behind Coal Battle) was the winner with an impressive 99 Beyer speed. Publisher was 2nd, Coal Battle was 3rd. Interestingly, Coal Battle actually beat Sandman in their prior race at the Grd 2 Rebel. Have to respect Sandman's speed, but overall.. not really loving the Arkansas horses.

I also stay clear of exotics at the Derby. The odds are astronomical with that field. I play that race straight - win, place, show. Won't get rich, but don't go broke either. Just enjoy America's most famous sporting event and hopefully cash something. And no, I didn't know Wally World was Santa Anita. That's awesome! "Sorry folks, park's closed. The moose out front should've told ya."

Oof, bad beat... we've all been there. You're right there's long-shot value in this race. My guess is the winner will likely come from one of the 3 major prep races. The Blue Grass just isn't the prestigious prep it was decades ago producing just 1 winner in 30 years with the last in '07 (though last year was darn close). The Wood Memorial - a Grd 2 race, hasn't had a winner in 22 years. That leaves the Arkansas (Sandman, Publisher, Coal Battle) , Florida (Sovereignty, Neoequos) and Santa Anita (Journalism, Baeza, Citizen Bull). I'm quick to toss Publisher being a maiden onto his 8th race (good lord), and Citizen Bull out the #1 post which is incredibly difficult, along with Neoequos out of the #2 post which is a speed horse that'll be hard pressed to go this distance. That leaves Sandman (5-1), Coal Battle (27-1), Sovereignty (10-1), Journalism (4-1) and Baeza (36-1). I'm of course sticking with Journalism... but the "big upsets" I could see winning would be Coal Battle and Baeza. They have long odds, come from the best prep races, and have reasonable post positions.

The 20 horse field is ridiculous. The greatest horse ever, on steroids, and from a good starting gate... could still easily lose. If they get boxed in, they can't jump over other horses. And they can't control the pace which happened in '22 when 80-1 Rich Strike won... the early pace was ridiculous and the top horses ran out of gas. Best you can do is make an educated guess and pray. God bless anyone gutsy enough to bet against the stat of 22 of last 25 winners (88%) racing in one of the major prep races. I can't.