GobbleDog

That time of year gentlemen - put up or shut up. I figure some of yall are drafting this week so let's do this before everyone inducts their team to the HOF. 1) Keon Coleman (Wr 50) has double digit Tds - Slow and no separation, but rebounds like Wilt Chamberlain. 2) Saquon Barkley finishes outside top 20 Rbs. Legendary no more. 3) Brock Bowers (Te 11) finishes top 5 Te. There's a new sheriff in town. 4) Zamir White has 300+ carries. Coach loves bell-horses & work-cows. 5) Terry McLaurin (Wr 32) finishes top 15 Wr. Redskins have a tomahawk thrower. 6) Zack Moss (Rb 34) finishes top 10 Rb. High-powered Bengals could vault Stephen Hawking to fantasy greatness. 7) Devon Achane finishes outside top 20 Rbs. Unsustainable metrics aren't ... um, sustainable. 8)) Malik Nabers finishes with more fantasy points than Marvin Harrison. And his daddy. 9) Tua Taovailoa finishes with most Tds in the league. 2024 remembered as Year of the Fish. 10) Chicago Bears remain the only team to never have a Qb throw 4,000+ passing yards. Eternal punishment for the Superbowl Shuffle. What yall got?

Indy lost two major o-lineman to free-agency. Richardson is gonna have his work cut out for him. Could get ugly.

I guess bulk helps contested catches.... then again might limit jumping.?. Regardless, his adp is bit rich for my taste. Like I said he finished Wr 42 in avg pts / gm. He'll almost certainly do better than that, but.... Wr 20ish? At run-first Arizona with Kyler Murray? Maybe, but I ain't willing to gamble on it.

Yeah, I've looked for correlations top Wrs have aside from pure volume and not much stands out. Though Harrison being #107 in separation is a huge outlier none of the elites have. Rbs have slightly better correlation. Key categories where most elite Rbs are consistently high (aside from volume): True yac (discounts 10+ yd runs for more accurate measure), Yds per Touch, Juke Rate, Yds created per Touch (yds beyond what was blocked or juked), Production premium (situational comparison of carries/targets play outcome to league average). Even with high rankings in all those categories, it still takes volume. But does show how efficient they are with carries/touches and could indicate increased or decreased volume in the future. The metrics showed Zeke was cooked as burnt toast going into last year... and yeah, he was.

A Jones, aka Mr. Always Hurt played the whole season. Kamara played all but the final 3. Strange year for Rbs as most were unusually healthy, even for old guys who always miss time - well, other than McCaff. Will Kyren get injured this year? It's so random and he's only 24. But, maybe.

Metrics be damned, the no. 1 correlation deciding Wr fantasy success is ... targets. Shocking I know. 5 Wrs had 150+ targets last year... 4 finished top 5. Wilson odd man out finishing Wr 10. Chase had the most (175) and... of course finished Wr 1. 15 Wrs had 125+ targets ... and 12 finished top 15. DJ Moore finished Wr 16, Meyers Wr 19, and W Robinson Wr 36. Basically figure out which Wr gets lots of targets and stays healthy, you've pretty much nailed it.

Not a subscriber, so I can't see the full ranking list. Just individually look them up. I know Marvin Mims is #1... though he's got the lowest yds-before-catch in the world at 0.7. Jayden Reed is #2. There's a bunch of Te's in the top 10 like Kraft (#4), Gray, Conklin, Likely.... guess they automatic separation just by play-design. Khalil Shakir is #7. Zay Flowers is #9. There's another website (NFL next gen stats) that has separation stats, but they aren't the same rank and yds of sep for whatever reason. Still, it's close. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

Speedster with size is an under-statement. Ran a blazing fast 4.32 at the combine. It's the same time Achane ran who's 5'9" and weighs 188 lbs. Tuten is 5'11" and weighs 209 lbs.

I consistently mock draft Lawrence as my back-up in the 14th rd. If ya believe in Coen like I do along with all the new weapons, this could be a good year. Lawrence rank avg pt/ gm: '24) Qb 17 (in his 9 full games) '23) Qb 17 '22) Qb 14 Currently ranked Qb 20. Almost certainly finishes better than that. Interestingly, Mayfield finished Qb 3 last year under Coen. Can't expect that, but sky's the limit if things click. I'll buy a 13th/14th rd lotto ticket with that potential.

And with that terrible defense, the Panthers had the 2nd lowest time-of-possession in the NFL last year. Bad defense ain't always great for fantasy Qb stats.

Bottom line... are you excited to draft Harrison at Wr 21 or mid-4th rd? Last year he finished Wr 42 in avg pt/gm. That's a pretty big leap. I'll let the gamblers draft him.

I don't either. Just look for similar properties the best at that position have (other than pure volume). Harrison had plenty of double coverage compared to mediocre receivers, but that much more than elites? I know Chase definitely got his share.

Playerprofiler.com bears that out: Harrison's 1.03 yds of separation ranked #107. It's not like he needs to be top 10... just better. The best-of-the-best: Chase (36th), Jefferson (38th), St Brown (15th), Nacua (44th), Thomas Jr. (23rd), Lamb (60th), etc.

Jags were 4-13 last year, but 9 of those loses were by 5 or less points and that was with Lawrence missing half the season. Way more competitive than you'd think. Shouldn't take too much to turn that ship around. Jags signed a big time o-lineman to a monster contract and drafted one in the 3rd - so line should improve. Lawrence is entering his 5th year and has a bonafide superstar in Thomas Jr. now paired with their new Heisman trophy Wr. They have a new coach in the locker-room (fresh voice often helps) - former Bucs coordinator who had the 4th highest scoring offense last year. Finally, they play in the weakest division in the NFL. Jags over/under is 7.5 wins. I'd take the over. Fantasy wise, not sure Lawrence has a top 10 finish in him quite yet, but should easily outperform the lowly adp of Qb 20. I despise the Jags and enjoyed watching them suck last year (it's a Dolphin thing). Hope they stink again, but my unbiased opinion is they're gonna do a lot better than people expect.

SuperBowl win and 4 MVP's makes him a lock. Though might not get a 1st ballot entry because of he's a pr*ck. Although if I were charge of HOF rules - for all sports - they should only get one shot. They're either a HOF player or they're not. Getting in on the 14th ballot (it's happened) is ridiculous. Their stats don't get any better with age.

I'm confused... they don't like Golden wearing 22 because it's usually a corner-back's number? Is that correct? If the league allows it, don't see why anyone would care. I thought this was about retired numbers - which I've always disliked. The Yankees have retired so many numbers, they'll have to go triple-digits in the coming decades. Ridiculous. The Gators retired Heisman Trophy winner Spurrier's #11 after he graduated. Years later when he became coach, Spurrier himself officially un-retired it. He thought numbers should never be retired because... they're just numbers. God bless the Ole Ball Coach.

Completed three live mock drafts (12 team) on ESPN the past couple days. Not with bots, but full of idiots like me who start FF analysis way too early. Just to get a feel for where players are going. I select high ranked players rather than one's I'm interested in. So based on those mocks... Harvey & Judkins went mid 5th in all three mocks. Almost no variation. K Johnson... late 5th to early 7th. Surprised how high Jav Williams went... early to late 8th in all three mocks. Thought he'd be 10th or so. Pacheco consistently went early 8th as expected. Brian Robinson ... late 8th to mid 9th. Red-headed step kid apparently. Jags rookie Tuten ... 10th to 11th rds. Jordan Mason ... 13th and 14th rds. Interestingly, if ya want a piece of the Chargers backfield... Omarion Hampton costs a late 4th. Versus Najee Harris who goes mid 10th.

The only vagina sport I watch is tennis. Helps that I gamble on it, but I actually enjoy watching them play. And some are so smoking hot I can almost smell their sweet - sweet sniz through the tv. God bless 'em.

If I could gamble on it... I'd bet he stays in '26 based on scuttlebutt I've heard. Although scuttlebutt isn't always as good as it sounds.

4 out of 10. Back to the drawing board.

After some research... Breshard Smith (just turned 22) was a Miami Hurricanes Wr for three years with uninspiring stats. Transferred to SMU his senior year and switched to Rb. Did well finishing with 1,332 yds (5.7 ypc), 14 rushing Tds, 39 rec, and 4 rec Tds. SMU played several bad teams, but some of his big games were against decent competition (Clemson, Pittsburgh, FSU, TCU). He's not big (194 lbs) which makes his 235 carries last year impressive. But he runs a 4.39 - third fastest among Rbs at the combine. Didn't test well in broad jump or vertical, and graded a RAS score of 7.02. His lack of athleticism likely attributed to falling the draft. Though don't take too much stock in that ... last year Bucky Irving had the worst combine possible with a pathetic RAS score of 2.3. Scouts joked "Bucky couldn't jump over a two dollar bill." But I digress. So we've got a Wr turned Rb who's small, but fast. Won't be seeing goal lines, short-yardage, or high volume carries... but word is he could be the Chiefs next Jerick McKinnon - a passing catching specialist. Probably needs to bulk up if he's to survive, or be a decent pass-blocker. Considering everything, doubtful he has a major impact in fantasy next year.

I'm with you. This moral police game after their career is over is ridiculous. "Well his stats are HOF worthy, but he was involved in those DUI car crashes. On the flip side, nobody died and he does seem really sorry... Ok, he's in!" Give me a break. Rose should be in. As for juicers - they wouldn't be HOF worthy without the juice. So no, they don't get in.

Kansas City Chiefs: 1) Pacheco - returned from a broken leg mid-season and didn't look great (3.7 ypc). Probably why he was sparingly used in the playoffs. Chiefs didn't offer an extension so now in the final year of his (7th rd) rookie deal which means peanuts... $1.1 mil. Very motivated to prove his worth for next year's contract with Chiefs or whoever. 2) Hunt - 200 carries and a sad 3.6 ypc. The Chiefs resigned him to a 1-year deal ($1.5 mil). Was good at short-yardage/goal lines finishing with 7 Tds. Turns 30 yo in a couple months. 3) Mitchell - free-agent from Niners were he was often injured, but decent while healthy. Chiefs gave him a 1-year $2.5 mil deal. 4) Smith - who? Chiefs 7th rd draft pick Brashard Smith. Supposedly a speedster and probably relegated to special teams... but who knows. Everyone and their uncle predicted the Chiefs were gonna invest a high draft pick in Rb this year. Didn't happen so does that show confidence in Pacheco returning to '23 form? Do they expect Mitchell to stay healthy and perhaps take over the lead? Will Hunt continue to vulture short Tds? Pacheco has been going first in mocks - late 8th rd. Good value if he does return to old form - and the Chiefs actually give him decent volume. But in that murky mess, hard to predict anything. Anyone care to venture a guess?

Jaguars Rb riddle - gold to be mined, but I can't decipher the code. Jags have a new coach - Liam Coen, former Bucs o-coordinator. Prior regime picked up Etienne's 5th year option, but the new coach reportedly isn't thrilled with the inefficient running. Tank is still there, but hasn't impressed. Jags drafted two more Rbs this year... a 4th on Bhayshul Tuten (speedster Rb with size) and a 7th on LeQuint Allen (receiving specialist/pass blocker). All have low adp's, so there's value somewhere... just not sure where. We'll see where things stand in the coming months. Interestingly Coen was at the Bucs when they drafted Bucky Irving in the 4th. Perhaps the coach sees Tuten as his next Irving.?.

(Rb 33) Kaleb Johnson - Steeler's 3rd round pick. 6'0" 225 lb bruising Rb who's scouting report reads: "Doesn’t go down on first contact. Light in tight quarters on inside-zone concepts. On outside-zone runs, displays patience picking the line and waiting for opportunity. These runs he looks like Le’Veon Bell … waiting, waiting, waiting, and then exploding up-field. Johnson baits second-level defenders, forcing them to declare first, sucking them into a muck of bodies as he escapes into space. Johnson will appeal to zone-run offenses looking for a bellcow." Zone-run offense - check; Coach who loves bell-cow's - check; "Runs like Lev Bell" ... perfect. Tomlin drafted Najee in '21... 307 carries his rookie year. Johnson is currently projected mid-9th rd.