GobbleDog

Gotta love Week 1. Full of optimism. Everyone thinks they outsmarted the room and players are fully healthy ready to go. By week 5 half your roster is on the injury report, "gems" turned into worthless bums, and monster points came from bench players. God bless fantasy football. Good luck everyone.

Dak was Qb 20 ppg when he left after Wk 9 last year. He might regain '23 form, but you willing to risk your fantasy life on it? Not me. Parsons leaving is a reflection of the piss-poor operation in Dallas right now... and ain't it good.

I drafted Mahomes in my big money league ... 3rd round. Sounds ridiculous for a guy projected for 5th rd. But 0.5 pt per completion - monumental shift in value. Leagues that don't have that ridiculous scoring format (all of them), I wait til rd 9+- ... Goff, Maye, McCarthy, Lawrence, Tua... take 2 and see which hit. The opportunity cost for the early Qb in normal formats doesn't seem worth it. .......................................... I generally avoid 1st rd Rbs in 12-man leagues as they injure or under-perform more than Wrs. But in 10-man leagues I take more risks because there's more depth. If the #1 goes down, no big deal because you're able to easily load up at that position. If I were in your shoes with the 4th pick in a 10-man FULL PPR ..... I'd be looking for Bijan or Gibbs with that first pick (forget Barkley). Hope one of the top 9 Wrs fall in the 2nd rd (ends with London)... if so take one, if not, pivot to Bucky or Chase. And because the Wrs are still sorta trashy in that early 3rd round... I'd probably just take a 3rd stud Rb to start in flex - James Cook. Get a couple Wrs the next few rounds (Sutton / Ridley / etc.) Back to Rbs while some starters are still available. And eventually think of a Te. And then Qb around 9 or 10.

Brown has the potential to have a decent fantasy season. Not saying he will, but being part of the Chiefs offense with Rice missing time and Kelce slowly decaying - it's possible. The other two are bums.

My league tried the blind bidding system last year - for a 20-year league that never changes anything, I was shocked it got enough votes. Everyone seemed to like it over the old waiver order system, so I doubt we'll ever go back.

I've heard scouts refer to Marks as - a Jack of all trades, master of none. Can catch, but not a dynamic receiver. Can run, but not very dominate. He's just ok at everything. Even if that's true, he only has to beat out old-man Chubb and Pierce, so maybe he's got a shot. I kind of wonder if Pierce isn't the one who surprises... the new coordinator (Caley) reportedly runs a man/gap scheme which Pierce did well in as a rookie. The problem with Pierce has always been "he runs so mean" ... which also translates to "why not try to avoid getting tackled?" In the end it might not matter who totes the rock. Take a gander at where the Texans o-line ranks this year.... I'll give ya hint - it's slightly higher than 33rd.

Think ya nailed it. Dude showed up at OTA's in a walking boot - coach said "he'll be ready for training camp." He wasn't. Missed all of it along with pre-season. Now he's on the non-football injury list. On top of everything - nobody knows exactly what the injury is. I've heard speculation it's likely broken bones... foot or ankle? Nobody knows. Mixon was dragging down the stretch last year, but with the injury and latest news - he's un-draftable in my book. Just hope your opponents are eternal optimists, see the name, and waste a pick.

When I saw that Otton's snap count over the past two years was among the highest among all Te's, I was intrigued. Thought maybe I'd found some hidden gold. Then closer examination... Those "solid numbers last year"... came from three games. Wk 7 (Evans injured early), Wk 8 (Evans out), Wk 9 (Evans out). The other 11 games Otton averaged 6.5 ppg which last year would've been Te 32. According to some articles, the deal with Otton is he's just not a very talented receiver, as partly indicated by his 8 drops last year (highest among Te's). He flashed in those three games because the Bucs were desperate for receiving options and fluke games happen. But you don't want to rely on Otton on a weekly basis.

I think there's a chance broke-back Stafford shuts it down by mid-season... especially if the Rams get off to a slow start. Puka himself has his own injury history to worry about. And Nabers.... the bad toe + Wilson (who only throws moon balls) is worrisome. I'll hold my nose and take Nico (Texans o-line is atrocious and they did nothing to fix it), but I'd rather have BTJ and St. Brown. BTJ with Coen... a fantasy dream. St. Brown is what he always is: 140-160 targets of reliable gold.

Certainly makes rushing Qbs valuable. As much as I'm inclined to say Wr-Wr (especially this year with elite Wrs sitting on 150+ targets falling to the end of the first).... have to admit Allen makes sense. Real question is will he outscore the next best Qb you'd draft in later rounds, moreso than the elite Wr over a Wr to be drafted later.?. In a ppr it's probably close. But Allen is as close to a sure thing among the rushing Qbs as there is. Consistently top 3 and the offense hasn't changed a darn thing. Should be great again. I don't think I'd do it for Jackson - who's not nearly as consistent. Drafting an early Qb is strange to me, because my league doesn't value rushing Qbs, but instead high volume Wrs. Gotta know your scoring.

Washington will have an occasional big game, but lack consistency. Certainly wouldn't want to start him in playoff weeks. With all the receiving options, he'll get lost in the shuffle the way Waddle has in recent years - though Waddle's stats might improve some as Hill continues descending. Washington was mass-targeted down the stretch because Tua was coming back from yet another concussion, the o-line was broken, and they game-planned to get the ball out as fast as humanely possible. The second half of the season was mostly short throws to the slot Wr (Washington), the Te and Achane. Tua's intended air yards/ att .... lowest in the NFL at 5.7 yds, and a career low which in past years hovered around 8 yds. I don't think that's gonna carry over to this year - not that o-line is all that, but should be slightly improved and Tua has had a full year to recover from the concussion. I wouldn't be drafting Washington at any price in re-draft.

One prediction I got right last year - when Mclaurin's adp was Wr 32. "Gonna be a top 20 Wr!" Finished Wr 7 overall and Wr 16 ppg. Better than even I expected. This year, I was already out at his adp of Wr 17 before the hold-out. At this point without practicing and potentially missing games... no way in hell. Oddly, his adp doesn't seem to have changed much. I don't get it. Should be going Wr 30+.

Deciding between Qb -vs- Wr or pass-catching Rb... ppr should enter into the equation. With 6-pt passing Tds, I'd be less inclined to pay big draft capital for a rushing Qb.

Drew #9 spot in big money 12-man league. Would've much preferred 11-12. Current plan - St Brown 1st, then hope and pray BTJ falls to the 2nd or if not London. If none of the top Wrs fall to 2nd.... I'm switching to Bucky. This is what sucks with that 9th pick - difficult to have a reliable plan. Gonna be drafting on the fly. I'm cool with the first 2 rounds no matter how it plays out, but the 3rd and 4th rounds are up in the air. I want Cook, Hampton and/or Walker, and should land one in the 3rd (some mocks they're gone too), but I'll probably have to pick between Hall or Chuba in the 4th. Ugh. Not loving it.

Need to know the scoring. 4 vs 6 pt passing Tds? Ppr? 100+ yd bonus pts?

I'm in the opposite system... 6 pts passing td and 1/2 pt per completion. So I ALWAYS wait for a Qb ... like rd 9 or later (Goff please). But in your league, I'd be inclined to draft Allen early like you're saying at the 2/3 turn. He's God's fantasy gift in that system. Moreso than Lamar IMO.

I think the Jags want him mainly for Wr and they're placating him allowing some defense, but I doubt it ends up being much. Especially early in the season. Who knows. Seems crazy to allow to play too much every week. We'll see.

I didn't think Hunter would amount much either - padding his stats off Colorado's weak schedule. But the scout I respect most (Thor Nystrom) thinks he's worth every bit of that draft capital. He's usually been right calling out studs and duds in recent years, so I'm inclined to give him the benefit of doubt.

I refuse to believe Bigsby can't catch, just that he hasn't been used that way. If doesn't catch a lot more under Coen, then I'll believe it.

He can burn in hell! Sorry, I don't know what got into me. God bless Pearsall.

The truly bold predictions.... err Stone Cold Locks: 1) Puka Nacua (Wr 4) finishes outside top 15. Broke-back Stafford gets shut down mid-season. 2) De'Von Achane (Rb 13) misses 6+ games. Munchkin cheated death last year. Time to pay the reaper. 3) Calvin Ridley (Wr 29) finishes top 15. Alpha Wr with a competent Qb and Titans gonna throw a lot - bet on it (anyone get it?) 4) Jared Goff (Qb 11) finishes top 5. "Oh no, Lions lost their coordinator." Eat me. 5) Stefon Diggs (Wr 37) finishes top 20. Maye is good and Diggs is a pr*ck about getting targets. 6) RJ Harvey (Rb 25) finishes top 10. Great offense + old Dobbins + Payton wet-dreams of Kamara = top 10 7) Ricky Pearsall (Wr 43) finishes top 20. Shanahan's best Wr gets peppered with bullets, err targets. 8)) Tyler Warren (Te 10) finishes top 5. I predicted Bowers last year, and I'm about to do it again. Damn I'm good. 9)) Jonathan Taylor (Rb 9) finishes outside top 20. Doesn't catch, misses games, team sucks, Warren eats short Tds. Good night Jon-boy. 10) Tank Bigsby (Rb 42) finishes top 20. Metrics don't lie. He's a Tank alright. 11) Tua Tagovaoiloa (Qb 21) has 35+ Tds. 2025 is forever known as "Year of the Fish!"

Rb's I'll be looking for after rd 4: Hampton, Walker, Hubbard, Henderson, Harvey, Pollard, Johnson, Tracy, Williams, Mason, Bigsby And I skipped a bunch I'm not overly interested in, but "no rbs rds 4-6" .?. I disagree. With Wr's getting drafted higher than ever nowadays, it's pushed lots of reliable Rbs down the board.

I keep reading that. Might be true, but on top of everything... even if he is healthy - Russ Wilson. Mr. throw-it-deep but can't hit the middle of the field. It's all just too much. I only got one #1 pick and I'm rather stingy about it.

I've done a complete 180 on Nabers. Was hyped a few months back, but at this point... way too many worries to invest my most valuable draft capital. As they say "ya don't win the league with early picks, but you can sure as hell can lose."

Bum toe + Wilson Qb = bad mojo https://x.com/Connor_J_Hughes/status/1955265336040689713