GobbleDog

Of all the players I was wrong about last year... I was DEAD WRONG about Barkley. Metrics were on the decline, didn't expect the volume, and a bunch of other stuff that sounds ridiculous now. The one thing I ignored that everyone kept saying "yeah, but that o-line will make him great." Turns out they were right - more than they even realized. Quickly became evident - Barkley popped through the line (showed more agility/speed than I expected) and ran for first downs/Tds completely untouched. It was too easy. Most Rbs finished the season with about 2.4 Yards-Before-Contact-Per-Attempt. But Barkley... led all Rbs at 3.8. Next closest was Gibbs at 3.3. As much as I'd love to join your bandwagon and call Barkley a potential disappointment, I've lost all credibility on that subject. And considering that o-line I wouldn't dare try.

I'm Wr guy which burned me last year, but I am what I yam. Draft early Wrs, scout Rbs later. So I'm hunting through the rankings today, doing my first bit of research and a few names stood out. (Rb 12) Breece Hall - how the mighty have fallen considering where he ranked last year (3rd). Only missed one game and finished Rb 16. Everything was down - yds, tds and rec (though still a respectable 57 rec). In '23, Hall finished Rb 4 despite a bad Jets offense. Rodgers is gone replaced by Fields - no Rb competition added. Jets invested a first rd pick on o-line and signed a couple backups (might increase last year's lowly 2.1 Yds-Before-Contact). If he repeats last year he'll be slightly poor value, and if he reverts to '23... tremendous. The truth is probably in the middle. Still young, talented, and probably the focal point of the offense with Fields under center. (Rb 14) James Cook - despite missing a game he slightly out performed Adp and finished Rb 9. Similar to '23 when he finished Rb 11. No major changes in Buffalo. Interestingly, the Bills had the most rushing Tds last year with Cook getting a whopping 16, though his receptions declined to 32. No Rb competition added. The Bills are a high scoring offense and he's a beneficiary. Entering 4th year, only missed two total games. Feels like a safe pick in this range. (Rb 21) Aaron Jones - old man still doing it. Finished Rb 14 last year without missing a game. The big change is McCarthy at Qb and the Vikings also signed Rb Jordan Mason to a sizable contract so Jones might not see another 255 carries. But he was productive with his carries at 4.5 ypc and added 51 rec. Vikes invested a 1st rd pick on o-line and signed two decent free agents. Might be tough to replicate last year with Mason in the fold (never know), but Rb 21 seems like the floor if healthy again. (Rb 27) RJ Harvey - Bronco's 2nd rd pick. Scouts say he can run like hell and most importantly - he can catch. Lord knows Shanahan edit: Sean Payton loves that. Minimal Rb competition. Considering the draft capital invested, probably steps in as the lead back who could be staring at least 50+ receptions (J Williams had 52). Rb 27 seems like a gift. (Rb 29) Quinshon Judkins - Brown's 2nd rd pick. Supposedly Chubb's replacement. Probably not quite as good, but scouts love him - "homerun ability" - whatever. Likely doesn't get tons of receptions as Ford is still there. The Browns do two things well - play defense and pound the rock, it's in their DNA. This is the new rock totter. Maybe it's early and the hype train hasn't left the station, but this feels too low for a guy who might easily get 200+ carries. (Rb 31) Brian Robinson Jr. - finished Rb 29 last year, due to missing 3 games and left early in a couple. Still had 187 carries, (4.3 ypc) 8 Tds, 25 rec. Redskins had 4th most rushing Tds last year, mainly due to Daniels but shows commitment. Robinson has missed a few games each of his three years, but he's still the lead back as old man Ekeler didn't show much. Redskins invested a 1st rd pick on o-line. Can't imagine Robinson breaking top 10-15 with Daniels vulturing so many carries and Tds, but should easily out-perform this lowly adp. (Rb 35) Javonte Williams - ok scraping the barrel, but what the hell is wrong with Jerry Jones? Upgraded Zeke and Dowdle with Williams and Miles Sanders? Seriously? Cowboys spent 5th and 7th round picks on Rbs, but they don't appear to be the main starters (make league-min money). No guarantee Williams does anything with his new starting gig despite lack of competition but we're talking about a 10th rd fantasy pick here and the Cowboys have a decent offense. Feels like a decent dart throw. Thoughts? Which mid to late Rbs are yall eyeballing?

Jags let go of Wr Christian Kirk, Te Evan Engram, and now Gabe Davis. They also let go a bunch of no-names... Wr Devin Duvernay, Te Luke Farrell, Wr Tim Jones, Te Josiah Deguara, Wr Josh Reynolds. Total revamp of receiving options.

More than a couple. In '23 Hall had six games with 20+ fantasy points (ppr). Only McCaff had more. Regardless, which anchor Rb do you recommend avoiding this year? Just for discussion sake - doesn't matter to me... I'm Wr guy. 1. Bijan 2. Barkley 3. Gibbs 4. Achane 5. Jeanty 6. McCaff 7. Henry

Giants 4th rd pick... Cameron Skattebo (currently Rb 41). From what scouts say - "tough, gritty, bruiser" does sound like Alstott. Probably gets goal line and short yardage work. Gotta worry how many total carries he gets with Tracy and Singletary still in town. Might be boom or bust each week with goal line Tds.

Yes... "Sean Payton." I'm old, and it's still early in the season. Cut me some slack.

Dang... apparently so. Here's a couple articles - first about how high Redskins are about their 7th Round pick (jeesh). The other about a possible Robinson to Chicago trade. Seems strange to me. Trading a productive commodity in Robinson and banking on a 7th rounder. Guess we'll see what happens over the next few months.

I had high hopes for Pickens last year finally getting a decent Qb... but every Wr metric you can think of - he absolutely stunk. I guess he'll be better in Dallas, sure as hell can't do any worse. He's not on my fantasy radar. Ranked Wr 33.... yeah, no thanks.

2024 ADP vs actual finish, noticed something unusual - very few Rbs missed more than a handful of games to injury - sorry McCaff drafters, he was an outlier. The few early/mid Rbs who didn't live up to ADP simply under-performed for whatever reason. In year's past, it was an extreme mix of injuries and under-performance. The data usually proved why drafting Rbs early was quite risky. Not last year. Among the 15 top ranked Rbs, only 3 were total disasters (McCaff, Etienne, Pacheco) and 2 were disappointments (Hall, Taylor). The others either met or exceeded ADP. Even old-man Alvin Kamara stayed healthy until Wk 16, and still finished 7 spots higher than his ADP. More RBBC systems reducing injuries - better medicine... or just a statistical anomaly.?. Whatever the reason, 2024 was unusually good for Rbs.

1) Citizen Bull 13-1 11) Flying Mohawk 28-1 2) Neoequos 38-1 12) East Avenue 39-1 3) Final Gambit 15-1 13) Publisher 30-1 4) Rodriguez 9-1 Scratched 14) Tiztastic 20-1 5) American Promise 12-1 15) Render Judgment 16-1 6) Admire Daytona 39-1 16) Coal Battle 24-1 7) Luxor Cafe 8-1 17) Sandman 5-1 8)) Journalism 4-1 18) Sovereignty 9-1 9) Burnham Square 17-1 19) Chunk of Gold 27-1 10) Grande 18-1 Scratched 20) Owen Almighty 37-1 21) Baeza 17-1 Odds updated May 3, 2:40 pm. Post time: May 3, 6:57 pm. Gentlemen, get your dollar bills ready!

Coming around the stretch with Journalism mowing them down, I thought he had it. At least the system held up - top 2 in the major preps. Props to Sovereignty for finding speed he'd never showed before. Had the field down to him and Journalism... and chose poorly. Chalk up another top Derby finish for jockey Flavian Prat on Baeza. Dude can ride. Win Place Show 1) Sovereignty $17.96 $7.50 $5.58 2) Journalism $4.94 $3.70 3) Baeza $8.38 4) Final Gambit Exacta - $48.32 $1 Trifecta - $231.12 $1 Superfecta $1,682.27

Good luck everyone! The sun shines bright on my ole Kentucky home...

Coal might hit the board... but I'd be surprised if he won. 29 of last 33 winners had a Beyer speed of 95 or better on their resume. Coal's best is 91, but it wasn't even from his last race - only posted 88 at Arkansas. Might be partly attributed to the ridiculous early pace in that race, but still... he's gonna need to do a lot better here.

Go back and watch a Laugh In show.... terrible. They must've been starved for comedy in the 60's.

That'd be incredible. Supposedly, he'll play more offense so might be hard to get that defense trophy.

Offense Defense Rb) Aston Jeanty +250 Lb) Abdul Carter +250 Qb) Cameron Ward +300 Lb) Jalon Walker +750 Wr) Travis Hunter +700 Cb) Travis Hunter +800 Wr) Tetairoa McMillan +900 Dt) Mason Graham +1200 Rb) Omarion Hampton +1400 De) Shemar Stewart +1700 ........................................................................................ From that list I think Hampton has the best chance at good odds. He's on the Chargers with Harbaugh likely to give him 200+ carries. For better odds I'd consider Denver Rb RJ Harvey at +2500. Defense... Graham. Browns already have a good defense so that'll make him look even better.

Rewatched that 2025 Arkansas Derby - strange race with a 9 horse field. The dead favorite (0.9 odds) Cornucopian got into speed duel right off the bat with some long-shot, setting an insane unsustainable pace and both faded badly in the final turn creating weird results ... sorta like when 80-1 Rich Strike won the Derby. Sandman (third favorite behind Coal Battle) was the winner with an impressive 99 Beyer speed. Publisher was 2nd, Coal Battle was 3rd. Interestingly, Coal Battle actually beat Sandman in their prior race at the Grd 2 Rebel. Have to respect Sandman's speed, but overall.. not really loving the Arkansas horses.

I also stay clear of exotics at the Derby. The odds are astronomical with that field. I play that race straight - win, place, show. Won't get rich, but don't go broke either. Just enjoy America's most famous sporting event and hopefully cash something. And no, I didn't know Wally World was Santa Anita. That's awesome! "Sorry folks, park's closed. The moose out front should've told ya."

Oof, bad beat... we've all been there. You're right there's long-shot value in this race. My guess is the winner will likely come from one of the 3 major prep races. The Blue Grass just isn't the prestigious prep it was decades ago producing just 1 winner in 30 years with the last in '07 (though last year was darn close). The Wood Memorial - a Grd 2 race, hasn't had a winner in 22 years. That leaves the Arkansas (Sandman, Publisher, Coal Battle) , Florida (Sovereignty, Neoequos) and Santa Anita (Journalism, Baeza, Citizen Bull). I'm quick to toss Publisher being a maiden onto his 8th race (good lord), and Citizen Bull out the #1 post which is incredibly difficult, along with Neoequos out of the #2 post which is a speed horse that'll be hard pressed to go this distance. That leaves Sandman (5-1), Coal Battle (27-1), Sovereignty (10-1), Journalism (4-1) and Baeza (36-1). I'm of course sticking with Journalism... but the "big upsets" I could see winning would be Coal Battle and Baeza. They have long odds, come from the best prep races, and have reasonable post positions.

The 20 horse field is ridiculous. The greatest horse ever, on steroids, and from a good starting gate... could still easily lose. If they get boxed in, they can't jump over other horses. And they can't control the pace which happened in '22 when 80-1 Rich Strike won... the early pace was ridiculous and the top horses ran out of gas. Best you can do is make an educated guess and pray. God bless anyone gutsy enough to bet against the stat of 22 of last 25 winners (88%) racing in one of the major prep races. I can't.

Meh, stupid horses don't know what their names are. Unlike people. Guess what Usain Bolt named his son? "Lightning". And ya know he'll turn out to be slower than molasses.

It's official - Rodriguez has been scratched and deported. Baeza will now start as horse #21. I'm still sticking with Journalism, but like I said in my write-up - Baeza shouldn't be dismissed off hand. Not with that jockey who thrives in the Derby.

That's some bad Derby mojo.

I don't defend Biden. Didn't give enough support or economic pressure on Russia, and should've permitted long-range strikes from day one. I'll give ya there probably wasn't enough oversight on spending - rarely is with the government. I do know Biden didn't take to Twitter the day Russia invaded Ukraine and call Putin "Genius... Brilliant!". Biden didn't call Zelensky a dictator or insanely accuse Ukraine of starting the war. Biden didn't align with Russia and North Korea in opposing a UN resolution simply condemning Russia's aggression. Biden didn't threaten to cut off support unless Ukraine signed a mineral deal as "repayment for $500 billion" even though only $150 billion was granted to them. Etc.. How do ya defend all that? "Well, Biden didn't have enough oversight." That's it?

Ukraine's supposed mineral deposits are based on 50 year old Soviet surveys, so the actual amount is questionable. In order to extract them multi-billions are required to set up towns (most in remote areas), employ miners, and buy/maintain specialized equipment. From what I've read it could take decades to see a return on investment. But hey Trump made a deal. Makes the US look like extortionists, but if it marks a turn-around in Trump's support for Ukraine, so be it. Future Presidents could very well modify or just outright terminate the deal.