GobbleDog

1) Jefferson 2) Lamb 3) Any elite Wr 4) Gibbs I only invest early draft capital into a position less likely to get injured or under-perform. Thus elite Wrs. I'll take my Rb chances with slightly less valuable picks.

Not sure how I feel about that quite yet. I'm still in the grieving process.

They can't even afford Cook unless they make some drastic roster moves... currently $1.7 mil cap space. Sadly... Curtis Samuel is the 8th highest paid player on the team with a cap hit of $9.1 mil. Dude had 31 rec last year. I'd forgotten they even signed him.

Chubb is cooked. Among Rbs with 100+ carries... Dead last in yds-after-contact; 2nd worst in ypc; 3rd worst in missed tackles/attempt; 4th worst in explosive run rate ... among many other ugly metrics.

Might be the wise move. I already thought Mixon's adp was inflated just based on the age, mileage, and declining metrics down the stretch. Now ya have to worry about Chubb vulturing Tds too. Many are gonna over-draft Mixon just based on last year's total stats and pure name recognition. Won't be me.

Don't know if adding Chubb means the Texans are concerned about Mixon, their backups, or both. Chubb will get some goal lines, but his metrics last year .... oof. Surprised he even got signed. Mixon slumped badly down the stretch. Ypc, yac, broken tackles all declined. Lot of millage on him.

I didn't know what to make of the Jags backfield and was sorta leaning toward Tuten like everyone else ... just being the huge fast rookie (everyone loves a hyped rookie). But after I took an unbiased look at the film and metrics, I realized how good Tank actually was. The ypc, yac, broken tackle rate, and homerun ability. Last year, he lived up to the 2nd rd draft equity the Jags invested. Etienne is still there (man he stunk), and now they have the rookie - but Tank is the best Rb on the roster and I think he'll prove it in training camp. Rb 40.!. Feel like I've found hidden gold that nobody sees because Etienne and the rookie are clouding up the situation. Watch some film - look at the stats/metrics... ya might come to the same conclusion.

After some research... I'm warming up to Tank Bigsby. Youtube "Tank Bigsby 2024" and just pick a few random weeks.... gritty runner. Head first gaining tough yards. Also apparent how bad the Jags run-block was, rarely creating holes - Tank's horrible 1.8 yds-before-contact / attempt is a testament. Made the most of what was given - impressive he finished with 4.6 ypc. The few times he did get a hole, he popped through and shook tackles. Interestingly, Tank tied Derrick Henry with the best yds-AFTER-contact / attempt at 2.8. Playerprofiler ranked his juke rate at #6 in the league. His broken tackle / attempt tied for 12th best in the league. Solid runner. Only had 16 targets, catching 12... two drops (16.7%). His scouting report out of college even mentioned his 11.6% drop rate. Be nice if he could fix that part of his game, but currently doesn't seem like he'll get too many targets - probably more than last year, but not much. The former 2nd rounder out of Auburn (good stock) was solid and likely continues improving into his 3rd season. Jags invested some in that o-line so they should have better run-blocking (who knows). Many are hoping Tuten with his size and speed has a huge impact, but he's a rookie - don't know yet if he can match Tank's skill. As for Etienne... 3.7 ypc. Unsurprisingly 1.9 yds-before-contact (again o-line), but after contact... 1.8 (oof). Bet Jags regret picking up that 5th yr option now. He'll get a few receptions, but I wouldn't expect much else. Tank's adp ... Rb 40. Won't take much to meet that adp. Based on where things stand now, I'd ballpark him to finish around Rb 25. Though we'll see where things stand in pre-season. Have a feeling his adp is gonna shoot up once it's apparent he's the lead dog.

Reddit doesn't tolerate much. Had to start a new account last year after getting a few warnings from some rough jokes. Then I posted in some news headline ... can't remember exactly - something about an extremist nut who was calling for gays to be exterminated. "I don't agree... but I don't disagree either." BANNED Ok, bad joke. But banned for simply not agreeing with the side I was supposed to? Jeesh. I no longer visit news headlines. Can't help myself from making stupid comments.

Apparently the drones were packed into the roof trailers of 18-wheelers which drove near the air bases... and out they flew. No word if the truck drivers were Russians who thought they were making ordinary deliveries - or Ukraine agents (as suspected). After all the drones left, the trucks self-destructed. There's video of police examining the interior of one truck when it goes kaboom. Incredible operation.

That time of year gentlemen - put up or shut up. I figure some of yall are drafting this week so let's do this before everyone inducts their team to the HOF. 1) Keon Coleman (Wr 50) has double digit Tds - Slow and no separation, but rebounds like Wilt Chamberlain. 2) Saquon Barkley finishes outside top 20 Rbs. Legendary no more. 3) Brock Bowers (Te 11) finishes top 5 Te. There's a new sheriff in town. 4) Zamir White has 300+ carries. Coach loves bell-horses & work-cows. 5) Terry McLaurin (Wr 32) finishes top 15 Wr. Redskins have a tomahawk thrower. 6) Zack Moss (Rb 34) finishes top 10 Rb. High-powered Bengals could vault Stephen Hawking to fantasy greatness. 7) Devon Achane finishes outside top 20 Rbs. Unsustainable metrics aren't ... um, sustainable. 8)) Malik Nabers finishes with more fantasy points than Marvin Harrison. And his daddy. 9) Tua Taovailoa finishes with most Tds in the league. 2024 remembered as Year of the Fish. 10) Chicago Bears remain the only team to never have a Qb throw 4,000+ passing yards. Eternal punishment for the Superbowl Shuffle. What yall got?

Indy lost two major o-lineman to free-agency. Richardson is gonna have his work cut out for him. Could get ugly.

I guess bulk helps contested catches.... then again might limit jumping.?. Regardless, his adp is bit rich for my taste. Like I said he finished Wr 42 in avg pts / gm. He'll almost certainly do better than that, but.... Wr 20ish? At run-first Arizona with Kyler Murray? Maybe, but I ain't willing to gamble on it.

Yeah, I've looked for correlations top Wrs have aside from pure volume and not much stands out. Though Harrison being #107 in separation is a huge outlier none of the elites have. Rbs have slightly better correlation. Key categories where most elite Rbs are consistently high (aside from volume): True yac (discounts 10+ yd runs for more accurate measure), Yds per Touch, Juke Rate, Yds created per Touch (yds beyond what was blocked or juked), Production premium (situational comparison of carries/targets play outcome to league average). Even with high rankings in all those categories, it still takes volume. But does show how efficient they are with carries/touches and could indicate increased or decreased volume in the future. The metrics showed Zeke was cooked as burnt toast going into last year... and yeah, he was.

A Jones, aka Mr. Always Hurt played the whole season. Kamara played all but the final 3. Strange year for Rbs as most were unusually healthy, even for old guys who always miss time - well, other than McCaff. Will Kyren get injured this year? It's so random and he's only 24. But, maybe.

Metrics be damned, the no. 1 correlation deciding Wr fantasy success is ... targets. Shocking I know. 5 Wrs had 150+ targets last year... 4 finished top 5. Wilson odd man out finishing Wr 10. Chase had the most (175) and... of course finished Wr 1. 15 Wrs had 125+ targets ... and 12 finished top 15. DJ Moore finished Wr 16, Meyers Wr 19, and W Robinson Wr 36. Basically figure out which Wr gets lots of targets and stays healthy, you've pretty much nailed it.

Not a subscriber, so I can't see the full ranking list. Just individually look them up. I know Marvin Mims is #1... though he's got the lowest yds-before-catch in the world at 0.7. Jayden Reed is #2. There's a bunch of Te's in the top 10 like Kraft (#4), Gray, Conklin, Likely.... guess they automatic separation just by play-design. Khalil Shakir is #7. Zay Flowers is #9. There's another website (NFL next gen stats) that has separation stats, but they aren't the same rank and yds of sep for whatever reason. Still, it's close. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

Speedster with size is an under-statement. Ran a blazing fast 4.32 at the combine. It's the same time Achane ran who's 5'9" and weighs 188 lbs. Tuten is 5'11" and weighs 209 lbs.

I consistently mock draft Lawrence as my back-up in the 14th rd. If ya believe in Coen like I do along with all the new weapons, this could be a good year. Lawrence rank avg pt/ gm: '24) Qb 17 (in his 9 full games) '23) Qb 17 '22) Qb 14 Currently ranked Qb 20. Almost certainly finishes better than that. Interestingly, Mayfield finished Qb 3 last year under Coen. Can't expect that, but sky's the limit if things click. I'll buy a 13th/14th rd lotto ticket with that potential.

And with that terrible defense, the Panthers had the 2nd lowest time-of-possession in the NFL last year. Bad defense ain't always great for fantasy Qb stats.

Bottom line... are you excited to draft Harrison at Wr 21 or mid-4th rd? Last year he finished Wr 42 in avg pt/gm. That's a pretty big leap. I'll let the gamblers draft him.

I don't either. Just look for similar properties the best at that position have (other than pure volume). Harrison had plenty of double coverage compared to mediocre receivers, but that much more than elites? I know Chase definitely got his share.

Playerprofiler.com bears that out: Harrison's 1.03 yds of separation ranked #107. It's not like he needs to be top 10... just better. The best-of-the-best: Chase (36th), Jefferson (38th), St Brown (15th), Nacua (44th), Thomas Jr. (23rd), Lamb (60th), etc.

Jags were 4-13 last year, but 9 of those loses were by 5 or less points and that was with Lawrence missing half the season. Way more competitive than you'd think. Shouldn't take too much to turn that ship around. Jags signed a big time o-lineman to a monster contract and drafted one in the 3rd - so line should improve. Lawrence is entering his 5th year and has a bonafide superstar in Thomas Jr. now paired with their new Heisman trophy Wr. They have a new coach in the locker-room (fresh voice often helps) - former Bucs coordinator who had the 4th highest scoring offense last year. Finally, they play in the weakest division in the NFL. Jags over/under is 7.5 wins. I'd take the over. Fantasy wise, not sure Lawrence has a top 10 finish in him quite yet, but should easily outperform the lowly adp of Qb 20. I despise the Jags and enjoyed watching them suck last year (it's a Dolphin thing). Hope they stink again, but my unbiased opinion is they're gonna do a lot better than people expect.

SuperBowl win and 4 MVP's makes him a lock. Though might not get a 1st ballot entry because of he's a pr*ck. Although if I were charge of HOF rules - for all sports - they should only get one shot. They're either a HOF player or they're not. Getting in on the 14th ballot (it's happened) is ridiculous. Their stats don't get any better with age.