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Showing results for tags 'The Math Dont Lie'.
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Using FFToday Default Scoring, the Top 4 RB are; DJ. 297 Bell 258 McCoy 227 (14.2 per game) Freeman 215 (13.4 per game) Zeke comes in at 164 (= 16.4 per game over a projected 10 games played) For the purpose of this discussion, assume a 13 week regular FF season, with playoffs in weeks 14-16. The maximum number of games played during the regular season is 12 (I.e., 13 minus bye week). Let's assume that you draft McFadden in Round 7. Very conservatively, McFadden is likely to average at least 10 points per game for the first six games while Zeke is suspended. That would put him on par with guys like Paul Perkins and Bilal Powell, who are projected to score 10 points per game. (Running behind that Dallas O-Line, I think McFadden can put up closer to 12/game, but let's be conservative.) If you get six games out of McFadden (6 x 10 = 60) and 16.4 from Zeke for 6 regular season games (6 x 16.4 = 98), that's a total of 158 points out of the Dallas backfield. How does that compare with drafting Freeman, who is ranked by FF Today as the RB4 ? At 13.4/game, and assuming Freeman stays healthy for 12 games, doesn't lose significant carries to Tevin Coleman, etc., Freeman projects to score 161 points for the FF regular season (12 x 13.4 = 161). That is essentially the same number of points that you will get out of the McFadden/Zeke combo. But,... there are two things that need to be considered that make Zeke the more compelling draft pick; 1. The numbers above only consider the 13 game regular FF season. By drafting Zeke in the middle of the first round, and assuming you make the playoffs, you will now have Zeke going into the playoffs, ... hitting your stride when it matters most. 2. There is still a reasonable chance that Zeke will end up being suspended for less than six games, which makes the argument for drafting him early even more compelling. You may say,... "Your analysis is unfair because you're utilizing two roster spots (Round 1 and Round 7) and comparing that to a single player/roster spot". Perhaps, but if you draft Freeman, aren't you going to use a 6th or 7th round pick on Tevin Coleman anyway? If so, that makes the comparison a truer apples to apples comparison. Finally, assuming the 6 game suspension holds up, I can almost guarantee you that Zeke will be healthy with fresh legs when he hits the field in week 8. Guys like McCoy, Freeman, and Gordon will have a good amount of wear and tear by then. Depending on your scoring system, the WRs need to be in the discussion as well, specifically Brown, Jones, and Beckham. My point is that pulling the trigger on Zeke in the middle of the first round is perfectly reasonable at the very least, and perhaps a great gamble and strategy at best.
