curtblick 0 Posted October 24, 2005 KC at SD (-4.5)....o/u is 50. Kansas City (4-2): Rushing offense: 6th Passing offense: 16th Total offense: 9th Scoring offense: 6th Rushing defense: 8th Passing defense: 30th Total defense: 27th Scoring defense: 21st San Diego (3-4): Rushing offense: 9th Passing offense: 19th Total offense: 14th Scoring offense: 2nd Rushing defense: 2nd Passing defense: 29th Total defense: 21st Scoring defense: 19th San Diego at 3-4 is interesting to me. I thought they would be 5-2 at this point....but I found that their schedule is the toughest in the league this year (1st in Sagarin ratings). SD lost to Dallas by 4 pts, then lost to Denver by 3 pts. Then they crush both NY Giants and Patriots. Then they lose to Pitt by 2 pts. Then they beat Oak by 13 pts. And finally in week 7, they lose a heartbreaker to Philly on a blocked FG and return for TD. Lose to Philly by 3 pts. So again, SD has been in every game they've played this year. This team is tough, but isn't finishing the game, or getting the breaks. Now, I'm a big Chiefs' fan, but didn't know that the Chiefs have the 8th toughest schedule this year (Sagarin ratings). KC beat NYJ and Oak to start season, then lose to Denver and Philly (this game was a heartbreaker). Then they beat Wash and Miami. So they've played quality opponents. Both teams have plenty of offensive weapons. They both know how to score, but unfortunately they both know how to let the other team score as well. Both teams can run the ball, but both can stop the run. Both teams are average in passing the ball, and well below average in stopping the pass. I think this favors the "Over" because they'll both try to take advantage of each other's weak secondaries. Not saying that L.T. and Priest and Larry Johnson won't get carries, but there should be plenty of passing attempts. Both teams are good at scoring pts, and average at stopping their opponent from scoring. It's been Vermeil vs. Schottenheimer since 2002...KC has won 3 times, SD has won 3 times. They are always close games...and the average total pts is 52.3 pts. '02 KC at SD: 34-35, SD Wins '02 SD at KC: 22-24, KC wins '03 KC at SD: 28-24, KC wins '03 SD at KC: 14-27, KC wins '04 KC at SD: 17-24, SD wins '04 SD at KC: 34-31, SD wins In summary: * past history of these 2 teams * each team has very good offense * each team has below avg defense * each team can score pts * each team lets their opponent score pts * each team has below avg secondaries * avg total pts since '02 has been 52.3 pts The o/u is currently 50....I'm taking the Over. blick Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Echo52 0 Posted October 24, 2005 I like KC, but not touching it at 4.5. For week 8 I like: Cinci -8.5 Cards/Cowboys UNDER 40.5 Giants -2 Bears +3 and possibly the panthers -8 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
curtblick 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Chicago at Detroit (-3)…..o/u is 32.5. Chicago (3-3): head coach is Lovie Smith since ‘04 Rushing offense: 11th Passing offense: 30th Total offense: 28th Scoring offense: 25th Rushing defense: 4th Passing defense: 9th Total defense: 3rd Scoring defense: 2nd Detroit (3-3): head coach is Mariucci since ‘03 Rushing offense: 21st Passing offense: 27th Total offense: 27th Scoring offense: 23rd Rushing defense: 13th Passing defense: 12th Total defense: 9th Scoring defense: 10th Key trends: Under is 7-2 in last 9 meetings. Under is 5-1 in Chicago’s games this year. Chicago is 4-2 ATS this year. Detroit is 5-1 SU in last 6 meetings. Detroit is 5-1 ATS this year. Under is 3-2-1 in Detroit’s games this year. Chicago is 0-2 SU on the road this year. Why is the Under 5-1 in Chicago’s games this year?....because their defense is good, and their offense is bad. Same with Detroit….decent defense, bad offense. Chicago has Kyle Orton at QB with a rating of 61.1, which is horrible. Detroit has Jeff Garcia back from injury…and Garcia had a QB rating of 81.7 vs. Cleveland last week. Neither team scores points very well. Chicago averages 16.7 pts per game, while Detroit averages 17.3 pts per game. Chicago is -1 in turnover margin, while Detroit is +5 in turnover margin. Recent history: In 2004, Detroit beat Chicago twice……20-16 (Detroit covered, and game was Under)……19-13 (Chicago covered, and game was Under). In 2005, these 2 teams have already played once, and it was Chicago whipping up on Detroit 38-6 (Chicago covered, and game was Over). Chicago had a punt return for TD, and an INT return for TD. So Chicago scored 24 normal offensive points in that game. Of course, when Joey Harrington throws for 5 INTs in 1 game, that can hurt the Lions’ chances of scoring points. Lovie Smith went 5-11 in his 1st year with Chicago. Mariucci has gone 5-11 and 6-10 in 1st two years with Detroit. Sagarin ratings: Chicago has the 26th toughest schedule. Detroit has the 27th toughest schedule. So neither team has played quality opponents this year. In summary: * Chicago has a solid defense, and Detroit’s offense stinks. * Neither team can move the ball. * Neither team can pass the ball. * Garcia is playing now, instead of Harrington. * Chicago has a good running game with Thomas Jones (641 yds, 6 TDs, 4.8 avg). I’m taking the Under…..and will probably also take Chicago (+3). blick Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 996 Posted October 25, 2005 Home teams that were also favored have won 74% of the time (straight up). Given that statistic combined with the fact that CHI is not a great football team and the fact that DET is only laying 3 points, I'll take DET. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
curtblick 0 Posted October 25, 2005 GobbleDog - didn't you mention last week that you kept an Excel spreadsheet of the NFL games? I used to do that, but lost the time it takes to keep it updated. Would you want to share it? If not, no big deal. Just wanted to ask. What's the statistics this year for: Home teams winning straight up? Home favorites covering the spread? Home underdogs covering the spread? Visiting teams winning straight up? Visiting favorites covering the spread? Visiting underdogs covering the spread? thanks. blick Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 996 Posted October 25, 2005 I only have some of those stats. Unless I made a typo somewhere while inputting data, here are the stats for the year: Home team straight up: 66-36 Home team ATS: 53-46-3 Favored team straight up: 71-31 Favored team ATS: 52-47-3 At Home AND Favored straight up: 57-20 At Home AND Favored ATS: 42-34-1 Over/Under: 50-51-1 Average total score (each week): 38.4, 35.8, 43.9, 41.1, 44.6, 41.8, 40.8 Average winning margin (each week): 12.7, 13.4, 9.9, 11.8, 11.9, 11.4, 10.4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PriestAlone 0 Posted October 25, 2005 My sneaky play of the week: San Fran catching 12 at home from Tampa Bay. I've got two words for you: Chris Simms. Three more: On the road. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 996 Posted October 25, 2005 My sneaky play of the week: San Fran catching 12 at home from Tampa Bay. I've got two words for you: Chris Simms. Three more: On the road. You may be onto something. It should definately be a low scoring game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
curtblick 0 Posted October 28, 2005 Arizona at Dallas (-9)…..o/u is 40. Line opened at Dallas (-7.5). Arizona (2-4): Rushing offense: 31st Passing offense: 4th Total offense: 11th Scoring offense: 21st Rushing defense: 12th Passing defense: 19th Total defense: 15th Scoring defense: 25th Dallas (4-3): Rushing offense: 14th Passing offense: 9th Total offense: 6th Scoring offense: 17th Rushing defense: 7th Passing defense: 14th Total defense: 7th Scoring defense: 11th Key trends: Under is 6-0 in last six meetings. Over is 8-1 in Arizona’s last nine on the road. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. Under is 3-0 in Dallas’ last three at home. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Dallas. Turnover margin: Arizona: -2 Dallas: +2 Sagarin ratings: Arizona strength of schedule: 25th Dallas strength of schedule: 5th Yards per rush: Arizona: 32nd (3.0) Dallas: 27th (3.3) Yards per play: Arizona: 23rd (5.0) Dallas: 16th (5.2) Arizona lost their first 3 games of the season, but has since gone 2-1 in last 3 games. In those last 3, they beat Tennessee & San Francisco, and lost to Carolina by only 4 pts. So Arizona is showing more signs of life. Josh McCown has a QB rating 73.7 with 5 TDs, 6 INTs. Larry Fitzgerald is having a good year with 40 catches for 575 yds, and 4 TDs. But, Arizona’s running game sucks (ranked 31st). Arizona had to come from behind to beat Tenn last week, and also scored a TD on an INT vs. Tenn, so they only put up 13 offensive pts. last week. Arizona was even outgained by 175 yards by Tenn, but won the game. Dallas, believe it or not, has been in every game they played this year. They only lost to Washington by 1 pt, lost to Oakland by 6 pts, and lost to Seattle by 3 pts. They beat quality opponents in NYGiants, Philly, San Diego, and beat San Fran also. Last week was a loss to Seattle. Bledsoe didn’t play well, had 2 INTs, but still has a QB rating of 94.9. The NFC East is a very close race this year (every team in the NFC East has 4 wins), and Dallas needs a win to keep pace. In summary: • Dallas is more balanced, Off. & Def. • Dallas has played much better opponents this year • Dallas has been in every game they’ve played • Dallas can move the ball, 6th in Total offense • Dallas has the better QB • Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road I’m taking Dallas to cover. blick Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 996 Posted October 28, 2005 Cade McNown is 2-1 as the starting QB for Arizona. :ph34r: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
curtblick 0 Posted October 28, 2005 correct - Josh McCown is 2-1, with some playing time in week 3 vs. Seattle. Still, with a rating of 73.7, no way I can take Arizona. blick Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 996 Posted October 28, 2005 correct - Josh McCown is 2-1, with some playing time in week 3 vs. Seattle. Still, with a rating of 73.7, no way I can take Arizona. blick Oops, Cade/Josh... whatever. I'm not advising anyone to bet on Arizona. That's insane. But I'd be a little nervous about taking DAL-9. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
titan20 0 Posted October 28, 2005 Steelers on a tease Steelers -3 Over Under 27 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mikeso 0 Posted October 28, 2005 KC at SD (-4.5)....o/u is 50. Kansas City (4-2): Rushing offense: 6th Passing offense: 16th Total offense: 9th Scoring offense: 6th Rushing defense: 8th Passing defense: 30th Total defense: 27th Scoring defense: 21st San Diego (3-4): Rushing offense: 9th Passing offense: 19th Total offense: 14th Scoring offense: 2nd Rushing defense: 2nd Passing defense: 29th Total defense: 21st Scoring defense: 19th San Diego at 3-4 is interesting to me. I thought they would be 5-2 at this point....but I found that their schedule is the toughest in the league this year (1st in Sagarin ratings). SD lost to Dallas by 4 pts, then lost to Denver by 3 pts. Then they crush both NY Giants and Patriots. Then they lose to Pitt by 2 pts. Then they beat Oak by 13 pts. And finally in week 7, they lose a heartbreaker to Philly on a blocked FG and return for TD. Lose to Philly by 3 pts. So again, SD has been in every game they've played this year. This team is tough, but isn't finishing the game, or getting the breaks. Now, I'm a big Chiefs' fan, but didn't know that the Chiefs have the 8th toughest schedule this year (Sagarin ratings). KC beat NYJ and Oak to start season, then lose to Denver and Philly (this game was a heartbreaker). Then they beat Wash and Miami. So they've played quality opponents. Both teams have plenty of offensive weapons. They both know how to score, but unfortunately they both know how to let the other team score as well. Both teams can run the ball, but both can stop the run. Both teams are average in passing the ball, and well below average in stopping the pass. I think this favors the "Over" because they'll both try to take advantage of each other's weak secondaries. Not saying that L.T. and Priest and Larry Johnson won't get carries, but there should be plenty of passing attempts. Both teams are good at scoring pts, and average at stopping their opponent from scoring. It's been Vermeil vs. Schottenheimer since 2002...KC has won 3 times, SD has won 3 times. They are always close games...and the average total pts is 52.3 pts. '02 KC at SD: 34-35, SD Wins '02 SD at KC: 22-24, KC wins '03 KC at SD: 28-24, KC wins '03 SD at KC: 14-27, KC wins '04 KC at SD: 17-24, SD wins '04 SD at KC: 34-31, SD wins In summary: * past history of these 2 teams * each team has very good offense * each team has below avg defense * each team can score pts * each team lets their opponent score pts * each team has below avg secondaries * avg total pts since '02 has been 52.3 pts The o/u is currently 50....I'm taking the Over. blick im taking SD wheather its -4.5 or -6...i feel SD is gonna blow them away...LT wil take his anger out on the weak KC D Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 996 Posted October 28, 2005 Steelers on a tease Steelers -3 Over Under 27 I like Steelers -3. I teased a few games early in the week and have PIT -2.5 with NE -2. Good teams playing at home, against the bottom dwellers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ratsforlunch 0 Posted October 28, 2005 Steelers on a tease If there is one game this week that does not require buying any points its this one. Not knockin you for doing it, but really......we'll be just fine taking the ravens by more than 10 on MNF. 2 TD's is reasonable to expect. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
duece2626 0 Posted October 28, 2005 Here's my 4 teamer: KC +6 TB -11 NE -9 Pitt -10 :ph34r: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted October 29, 2005 Here's my 4 teamer: KC +6 TB -11 NE -9 Pitt -10 :ph34r: I've got a 7 teamer locked in already. Bears(Chicago) +3 (-115) Bills(Buffalo) +9 (-105) Texans(Houston) -130 Chargers(SanDiego) -240 Dolphins(Miami) +3 (-125) Bought 0.5 point(s) Broncos(Denver) -190 Redskins(Washington) +3 (-135) Bought 1.0 point(s) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jeffcolo1 0 Posted October 29, 2005 I would just like to make it known that I know the guy that started this thread, and the guy that started the college football thread. LMAO. What's that? We all need a life, you say? Up yours! LOL Nothin' better than the action fellas! Looking forward to reading thru the posts for the NFL. JP Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jeffcolo1 0 Posted October 29, 2005 My sneaky play of the week: San Fran catching 12 at home from Tampa Bay. I've got two words for you: Chris Simms. Three more: On the road. Random thought on Bucs @ 49ers, o/u is 36... can teams led by Chris Simms and Ken Dorsey actually score 36 pts combined? Especially with the Bucs' excellent defense. I'm thinkin' under here... I'm also thinkin' about starting on my 4th beer. Jeff Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jeffcolo1 0 Posted October 29, 2005 Fellow stats man (and accomplice to Blick) here, taking a shot at doing a write-up on a game: Redskins at Giants (-2.5) … O/U is 42.5 WAS (4-2) : Rush OFF – 4th Pass OFF – 8th Total OFF – 2nd Scoring OFF – 14th (22.5 pts/gm) Rush DEF – 15th Pass DEF – 4th Total DEF – 4th Scoring DEF – 9th (17.2 pts/gm) NYG (4-2) : Rush OFF – 17th Pass OFF – 13th Total OFF – 15th Scoring OFF – 1st (28.8 pts/gm) Rush DEF – 21st Pass DEF – 31st Total DEF – 31st Scoring DEF – 24th (22.8 pts/gm) Division rivals lock horns for the first time this year… it’s the 2nd division game for each of them… it’s tough to pick the Giants by looking at their rankings in the stats above! Wow, 31st in total defense, giving up 296 yds passing a game?? That’s worse than the KC pass defense, so that AIN’T good. WAS is better in the red zone and has fewer penalties. Turnovers: WAS -6 NYG +8 Injuries: WAS has none significant… for NYG, Burress is Q with a shoulder, missed practice… oh man, LB C. Emmons is Q with a pectorial muscle… it’s torn-Jeez these guys are tough! Strahan is probable, “illness”. Covers.com Power Rankings: WAS – 10th NYG – 12th Trends: Over is 4-0 in WAS last 4 games. Over is 3-1 in NYG last 4 games at home. Brunell is 8/0 in TD/INT in last 3 games. Summary: * WAS can move the ball, but their turnovers put them in the middle of the pack in scoring. * WAS has an excellent pass defense. * NYG offense is average in terms of yards, but they figure out a way to get points (+8 in turnovers will do that for you). * NYG defense is bad against the pass. Turnovers are the biggest factor in this game, but if these two teams play 10 games, WAS wins 7 of them, regardless of venue. Take WAS +2.5. A slight lean to the over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
curtblick 0 Posted October 29, 2005 Oakland (-1) at Tennessee....o/u is 46. Oakland (2-4): head coach Turner since '04 Rushing offense: 25th Passing offense: 5th Total offense: 10th Scoring offense: 16th Rushing defense: 18th Passing defense: 24th Total defense: 24th Scoring defense: 22nd Tennessee (2-5): head coach Fisher since '95 Rushing offense: 19th Passing offense: 12th Total offense: 18th Scoring offense: 18th Rushing defense: 14th Passing defense: 13th Total defense: 13th Scoring defense: 26th Sagarin ratings: Oakland strength of schedule: 9th Tennessee strength of schedule: 18th Avg. yards per rush: Oakland: 23rd (3.6) Tennessee: 19th (3.9) Avg. yards per rush against: Oakland: 9th (3.7) Tennessee: 24th (4.2) Avg. yards per play: Oakland: 9th (5.6) Tennessee: 20th (5.1) Turnover margin: Oakland: 0 Tennessee: -7 Key trends: Oak is 3-1 ATS in last four meetings. Under is 4-1 in Oakland's last five. Oak is 3-1 ATS in their last four overall. Tenn is 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home. Under is 3-1 in Tenn last four at home. Turner's Raiders and Fisher's Titans played last year at Oakland. Oakland won 40-35. Game was an Over, and Oakland covered the spread. Collins had 5 TDs, Volek had 4 TDs. Oakland's QB Collins has a rating of 87.0 this year, 7 TDs, 2 INTs. Oakland's LaMont Jordan is coming on stronger....his TDs per game...0,1,0,1,2,3. Jordan is also being used as a receiver, with 245 yards and 1 TD. Oakland dominated Buffalo last week in points and yardage. Moss is playing despite injury and had 1 TD last week vs. Buffalo. Oakland's passing game is solid (5th), and they can move the ball (10th). Oakland's defense is well below avg in every category. Tennessee's QB McNair has a QB rating of 82.9 this year, 7 TDs, 6 INTs. McNair is expected to start vs. Raiders. Tenn's passing game is better than their running game, but they can't stop the other team from scoring pts (26th). In summary: * Oakland has a solid passing game * Tenn can't stop other team from scoring * Oakland has played much better opponents this year * Oakland won an offensive game last year vs. Tenn, and covered * Tenn's turnover margin is -7 I'm taking Oakland to cover. blick Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted October 29, 2005 My sneaky play of the week: San Fran catching 12 at home from Tampa Bay. I've got two words for you: Chris Simms. Three more: On the road. I like your sneaky play PriestAlone. I'm going to try to piggyback on that "sneaky" play. I'm just thinking why not go one step further with your reasoning and say San Fran wins straight up? Well, based upon this sneaky play, I just locked into a 10 team parlay. Here is my 10 team parlay: 49ers(SanFrancisco) +450 Bears(Chicago) +4.5 (-155) Bought 1.5 point(s) Chargers(SanDiego) -240 Dolphins(Miami) +4.5 (-170) Bought 2.0 point(s) Broncos(Denver) -190 Rams(StLouis) +4.5 (-125) Bought 1.0 point(s) Bengals(Cincinnati) -420 Titans(Tennessee) +4.5 (-190) Bought 3.0 point(s) Redskins(Washington) +4.5 (-170) Bought 2.0 point(s) Panthers(Carolina) -330 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ratsforlunch 0 Posted October 30, 2005 PB!! where's the thread man. After a reasonably good college fball day, here's the first ones for tomorrow...all 1 unit. Bears +3 Panthers Under 45 Oakland -1.5 Philly +3.5 NE -7 Pitt -10 2P GL fellas!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
