Has anyone ever looked at strength of schedule...

[mgs316 14]

What I mean is, look at last years player stats (2005), and then look at their strength of schedule that was derived from the 2004 season, and see what barring it actually had on player performance?

 

Like everyone is saying Manning Jr. has a brutal schedule but that's according to last years stats. Since there is so much parody in the NFL maybe last years strength isn't this years strength.

 

I'm not saying one way or the other, I'm just curious.

[LunaTick 30]

Not quite certain what you are getting at?

 

I will state this.

The Leagues attempt to equalize the teams by having the better teams play a tougher schedule frequently fails to have the better teams play a tougher schedule.

As the schedule not only requires those teams to play 2 games per team their division, but that the NFL has a set pattern for what other division and conference each team will be playing.

 

Thus some really bad teams will have a tougher schedule to face than a top team.

 

 

Now If I understand your question.

How does the value of a fantasy player get effected by going from a soft schedule to a tougher schedule (i would not have used Peyton Manning for this one btw. Indy has been a contender for quite some time. I would instead look at a team situation like the Bears this season).

 

I have not ever looked at this.

[Jay 0]

In a nutshell, yes. I project my own defensive rankings and I adjust my projections based on that. It's a piece of the formula that I use. I don't do that until the season gets closer, though. Too much adjustment for injuries...etc....if you do them too early.

[mgs316 14]

Not quite certain what you are getting at?

 

I will state this.

The Leagues attempt to equalize the teams by having the better teams play a tougher schedule frequently fails to have the better teams play a tougher schedule.

As the schedule not only requires those teams to play 2 games per team their division, but that the NFL has a set pattern for what other division and conference each team will be playing.

 

Thus some really bad teams will have a tougher schedule to face than a top team.

Now If I understand your question.

How does the value of a fantasy player get effected by going from a soft schedule to a tougher schedule (i would not have used Peyton Manning for this one btw. Indy has been a contender for quite some time. I would instead look at a team situation like the Bears this season).

 

I have not ever looked at this.

 

For example: Manning Jr. apparently has a tough strength of schedule this season, according to last years defensive rankings (you can't use this years SOS because they haven't played yet obviously.)

 

My question is: has anyone ever looked and saw that these hold true at all. Meaning take all the players who had a tough SOS/easy SOS last season and see what real effect it had on performance. Meaning you have to use the 2004 defensive rankings to guage the SOS (because they hadn't played 2005 yet.) 2004 defensive SOS compared to 2005 offensive output.

 

My hunch is that with that parity year to year, that it isn't that great of a guage of performance because the teams change so much year to year, that the previous years top defenses (which the SOS is based on) aren't necessarly gonna to be this years top defenses rendering SOS unreliable.

 

That clear it up? lol