Nichee 0 Posted July 15, 2006 Trying to find reasons to drop LJ seems like searching for something that isn't there. I see no reason why he shouldn't be a top scorer in 2006. I'll pick him No. 1 with confidence and if I get a lower pick and he falls to me, I'll consider myself lucky. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Freak Jones 0 Posted July 15, 2006 Trying to find reasons to drop LJ seems like searching for something that isn't there. I see no reason why he shouldn't be a top scorer in 2006. I'll pick him No. 1 with confidence and if I get a lower pick and he falls to me, I'll consider myself lucky. Word! I think people want to believe things don't change. People think because Shaun had the top stats last year that he has to be the top pick! Hutch is gone. Shaun got his new deal, a rushing title and the TD record. Great for him! That was 2005. It's all downhill from here. I've asked this once before and didn't get a reaction, so I'll ask it again. Am I the only one that watched the guy run for 9 yards on 6 carries against the Redskins? Supposedly he was "concussed", but really he knew he was going to be in for it all day long and couldn't take the heat. He's still an elite back, but watch out when his stats drop off this year because he already had his payday! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
devildog 0 Posted July 15, 2006 Word! I think people want to believe things don't change. People think because Shaun had the top stats last year that he has to be the top pick! Hutch is gone. Shaun got his new deal, a rushing title and the TD record. Great for him! That was 2005. It's all downhill from here. I've asked this once before and didn't get a reaction, so I'll ask it again. Am I the only one that watched the guy run for 9 yards on 6 carries against the Redskins? Supposedly he was "concussed", but really he knew he was going to be in for it all day long and couldn't take the heat. He's still an elite back, but watch out when his stats drop off this year because he already had his payday! LJ has his own series of questions. You mention Shaun's game against Washington. How about LJ's first game against Denver 8 carries 13 yards. Big deal on both accounts. LJ lost his coach, lost Al Saunders, lost his lead blocker, his old line is another year older, Priest's situation is still up in the air, he's had one half season of great ball- Shaun and LT have proven to be studs year over year for 5 years now. I'd take LJ #1 overall but to say there aren't question marks around him is ridiculous. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
joefry 0 Posted July 15, 2006 All of you LJ bashers are nothing but haters at best and at worst, retarded. As a previous poster pointed out LJ posted all-world numbers against crappy D's and great D's. He did awesome both with and without Roaf. He is as stud as stud can be, and it is very sad for you if you can;t have him, since LJ plus any type of competent draft = playoffs for sure and probably more (barring injury). I cannot believe this is even a debate!!!! He has done this two years in a row morons!!! If it was one year, I wouyld see your point, but he steped in twice in two years and delivered big time. Hell...he even had two 10 carry games last year where he was scoring big fantasy points either through tds or yards. All you fools who are arguing against him are total idiots!!! Sorry to burst your bubble. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Freak Jones 0 Posted July 15, 2006 All of you LJ bashers are nothing but haters at best and at worst, retarded. As a previous poster pointed out LJ posted all-world numbers against crappy D's and great D's. He did awesome both with and without Roaf. He is as stud as stud can be, and it is very sad for you if you can;t have him, since LJ plus any type of competent draft = playoffs for sure and probably more (barring injury). I cannot believe this is even a debate!!!! He has done this two years in a row morons!!! If it was one year, I wouyld see your point, but he steped in twice in two years and delivered big time. Hell...he even had two 10 carry games last year where he was scoring big fantasy points either through tds or yards. All you fools who are arguing against him are total idiots!!! Sorry to burst your bubble. I'll say it again. WORD! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cuse9 129 Posted July 15, 2006 I love these kind of assumptions! So all of a sudden in Shaun’s last 8 carries he would have averaged 13 ypc like Mo did? Yeah……ok. FYI, LJ had 138 yards rushing and 2 TDs after 22 carries in his game against Houston. However, if it’s necessary to pretend that his games against Houston and Cincinnati were meaningless, lets compare the only other common opponents Shaun and LJ played last year and their defensive rank against the run: Shaun NYG #12 def rank 31-110, 1 TD 0 rec. yds DAL #15 def rank 21-61, 0 TD 4 rec. yds LJ NYG #12 def rank 31-167, 2 TD 17 rec yds DAL #15 def rank 26-143, 3 TD 28 rec yds I’m sure with 5 more carries in the Dallas game Shaun would have run for at least 82 yards and 3 TDs right Cuse? Oh and since Shaun didn’t have to play the top 2 defenses last year, why don’t we look at how poorly LJ did in his starts against them: LJ SD #1 def rank 32-131 1 TD 48 rec yds 1 TD DEN #2 def rank 30-140 2 TD 9 rec yds 9 starts, 9 100+ yard games to finish the season! Why is it that people are so quick to dismiss what Larry did last year? Have people just forgotten what Priest did each year he was healthy? Is LJ the best RB in the game? Probably not, but we’ll have a better idea in 2007 if Roaf and Shields retire. Is LJ the best fantasy RB in the game this year? Most definitely yes! It's funny...you start out by saying "I love these kinds of assumptions" Then you go ont to assume what Larry will do because of what he did last year. Kind of contradictory of yourself isn't it. But, that is how we draft...we "assume" a player will be as good, if not better than he was the year before. I'm not dismissing what he did....simply stating that his two biggest games were against complete powderpuffs. His other games vs Denver/San Diego....I give him all the credit in the world...especially since they won those games. Have I said he was gonna be a bust, absolutely not. I said he is still an elite back, but I think people are expecting alot out of a guy who is gonna have alot of new things around him. Is LJ the best back in the league....again, your assumptions took over...you say most definitly. How do you know? I know last year I would have rather had Alexander for the entire year. My leagues play a full schedule, not just nine games. Will I be surprized if LJ is the best this year....no. Will I be surprized if he keeps his same pace that he went on last year...definitly. Your comparison of their common opponents proves my entire theory. Yes LJ did better in both games, but LJ's team lost both games....and Alexanders team won both games....hence the reasoning that things need to change in KC. Not that LJ can't or won't put up great stats if they become a playoff team, but something has to change. Your trying to hard to find reasoning that I'm bashing LJ...my whole point is if the Chiefs are gonna win a SB, they have to do things different. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Freak Jones 0 Posted July 15, 2006 LJ has his own series of questions. You mention Shaun's game against Washington. How about LJ's first game against Denver 8 carries 13 yards. Big deal on both accounts. LJ lost his coach, lost Al Saunders, lost his lead blocker, his old line is another year older, Priest's situation is still up in the air, he's had one half season of great ball- Shaun and LT have proven to be studs year over year for 5 years now. I'd take LJ #1 overall but to say there aren't question marks around him is ridiculous. All good points, but.....LJ went on from that Denver game, became the starter and went 9 100 yard games in a row including a game against Denver! So I think he settled that issue. As far as the coach goes, seems like LJ feels it was good riddance and C-Mart didn't have a problem winning the rushing title with Herman in 2004. Until Roaf and Shields retire, the O-Line is not an issue. Priest and LJ put up a combine 2700 yards from scrimmage and 28 TDs with that geriatric O-line. Priest is still not lifting weights or working out enough to be in playing shape as he waits month after month for some kind of answer. Plus LJ proved to be just as much of a stud in his absence as Priest was, so Priest would only get carries when LJ is tired. Which honestly would make LJ angry and play with more of a chip on his shoulder. So I say bring it Priestie! LJ has had 2 half seasons of great ball. One in 2004 and one in 2005. Losing Richardson will only make them change-up their play-calling a little bit. The big mystery to me will be how much Al Saunders is missed. That's the one thing that I have no idea how to quantify for LJ. All I know is that Clinton's TD's are going this way in 2006. I'm completely with you on Shaun and LT. They have proven to be studs year after year. Although LT has proven the last 2 years that he can help get you to the playoffs, but you might be on your own once there. The thing is players rise and players fade. I'm taking my chance on LJ's star this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Freak Jones 0 Posted July 15, 2006 Is LJ the best back in the league....again, your assumptions took over...you say most definitly. How do you know? I know last year I would have rather had Alexander for the entire year. My leagues play a full schedule, not just nine games. Actually, I said LJ was probably not the best back in the league. I did say he was the best fantasy back for 2006. Just my opinion. Everyone's got one! I think many people would have rather had Shaun for all of last year rather than 9 games of LJ. That's probably why Shaun was consistently drafted with one of the first 3 picks last year and LJ was one of the best values ever when drafted in the 4th and 5th round as Priest's handcuff. It was a pretty strong theory at the time that Priest would go down, it was just a question of when and then LJ would be lights out! I wasn't accusing you of bashing LJ. Rather, I live in Seattle and I think we've seen Shaun's best days. The guy has nothing to play for and he's soft. The Washington playoff game proved it. Still elite, but Charmin-like soft. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cuse9 129 Posted July 15, 2006 Actually, I said LJ was probably not the best back in the league. I did say he was the best fantasy back for 2006. Just my opinion. Everyone's got one! I think many people would have rather had Shaun for all of last year rather than 9 games of LJ. That's probably why Shaun was consistently drafted with one of the first 3 picks last year and LJ was one of the best values ever when drafted in the 4th and 5th round as Priest's handcuff. It was a pretty strong theory at the time that Priest would go down, it was just a question of when and then LJ would be lights out! I wasn't accusing you of bashing LJ. Rather, I live in Seattle and I think we've seen Shaun's best days. The guy has nothing to play for and he's soft. The Washington playoff game proved it. Still elite, but Charmin-like soft. Gotcha....I think we are almost on the same page now. I still think in reality the best back in the league is LT. He does everything....Brees will realize how good LT was in a few months!! Fantasy wise I wouldn't be a bit surprized if LJ, LT, SA or even Portis (he does have Saunders now) ends up being the best fantasy back. But this is what makes fantasy ball so much fun....trying to figure out what is gonna happen....who's gonna rise, bust, surprize and so on!! In hindsight you could go from a genius to an idiot in just one pick!! As for Shaun....don't you think the taste of being so close to winning the Super Bowl will motivate him to do even better. They lost nothing (well, Joe J, replaced by Burleson) and should be just as good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Freak Jones 0 Posted July 15, 2006 Gotcha....I think we are almost on the same page now. I still think in reality the best back in the league is LT. He does everything....Brees will realize how good LT was in a few months!! Fantasy wise I wouldn't be a bit surprized if LJ, LT, SA or even Portis (he does have Saunders now) ends up being the best fantasy back. But this is what makes fantasy ball so much fun....trying to figure out what is gonna happen....who's gonna rise, bust, surprize and so on!! In hindsight you could go from a genius to an idiot in just one pick!! As for Shaun....don't you think the taste of being so close to winning the Super Bowl will motivate him to do even better. They lost nothing (well, Joe J, replaced by Burleson) and should be just as good. Yeah, obviously I have a little bit of a pro-LJ mindset this year. I have the expectations set pretty high. I'll definitely hear it from people if I'm wrong. I'm ok with that. Having said that, I also think LT's numbers should be dominant and will happily take him with any 2nd pick I end up with in drafts. In my opinion as you mentioned with Saunders, Clinton's ceiling is really high this year as well. They finally figured out how to get him back in the endzone in the 2nd half of the year. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him end up in the top 3 at year-end. I think Shaun's numbers are going to drop back a bit. They still have a great line. Walter Jones is a beast. I just think his numbers will back off somewhat. Still elite, but I think he'll score closer to 15-17 TDs rather than 20-23 TDs and his rushing yardage will drop back to 1500-1600. I don't think defenses will be as powerless as they were with the left side of the O-Line the last few years. Hutch's departure won't hurt the team as much as its going to hurt Shaun's stats. I would legitimately be surprised if he puts up something close to last year. I would love to think that Shaun is still motivated. I think what put a bad taste in some of our mouths out here was the stuff he pulled at the end of 2004. Holmgren ran the QB sneak with Hasselbeck at the end of the game to score a TD and Shaun missed the rushing title by a yard. It didn't matter that that TD was the game winner, that Holmgren was most likely trying to catch them offguard with the sneak rather than the obvious 1-yd TD handoff to Shaun. It clinched the division and sent the Hawks into the playoffs. What mattered to Shaun was that he didn't get his rushing title. Who cares that the team won the division and went to the playoffs. He was "stabbed in the back". It really showed his true colors. I'm sorry Shaun but what is the focus of the team, to get you a rushing title or go to the playoffs? Apparently Holmgren should have been paying more attention to what kind of day Curtis Martin was having rather than coaching. Prior to that there had been rumors that Shaun was fake and was all about saying the right things to the press and perfecting his own image. That just really brought it all out in the open that when he says it's all about the team, blah blah blah he's full of spit. As a result of that there were rumors as to whether he really suffered a concussion against Washington in the playoffs or whether he chickened out. The whole thing seemed pretty fishy and it was like they tried to sweep it under the rug the week after the game. Luckily for Shaun they made it to the Super Bowl and it was pretty much forgotten. Just not by me. The Seahawks should be really good this year as well. What got lost with Shaun's MVP last year was how great Hasselbeck was. If Shaun were to go down this year, Mo could step in and put up ok numbers with that line. Hasselbeck would just end up throwing a few more TDs. Whereas if Hasselbeck goes down, the season would be over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cuse9 129 Posted July 15, 2006 What....where is the love for Seneca Wallace or David Greene? I agree, you'd have a better chance with Mo and Hasselbeck rather than Seneca and Shaun. I don't think Seattle misses a beat this yaer. I look for them to be back in the SB again. This year will definitly be fun to watch, seems like there are alot more quality studs than in the past. One weird stat that no one has mentioned is Peyton Manning. Both Marino and Warner threw 40+ TD's in a season. The following year both had bad years...but the year after that they both bounced way back! Manning had 40+, average year...does he come back with a steller year...time will tell. I doubt I'll get Larry in any drafts this year, since you got him hope he does great except for the weeks that I have to play against him...lol!! Only a month and a half to go....woo hooo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SoloMatisse 0 Posted July 15, 2006 I think there is a good chance he will be right where many FF sites have him maybe less. I doubt that he will do much more than that. His 9 game stretch last season was un fockin real but he did play some soft Defenses. Hey will be keyed on every single down because Gonzo seems to be there only other weapon. That being said, the O-Line is the shiznit still. Still with S.A. being so consistent and having one of the 3 easiest schedules in Football (Chiefs are right in the middle there) , I think he is the safer pick. In the end, I would not be shocked if the big 3 have very similar seasons. I have the first pick in my draft coming up in about a month and have bounced back and forth between LJ and SA at least 10 times. This quote is ridiculously easy to exploit, so allow me to do so. Soft Ds you say? Lets take a look at Larry's stretch run, when KC was desperate to win every game in a playoff push. I'll just break down the final SIX GAMES of the season. Oh, what do you know?........4 of those six teams were playoff teams....and the other two, San Diego and Dallas were 9 win teams that barely missed the playoffs. Hmmmmmmmm... vs New England 10-6 record , 7th ranked D vs the run - 172 total yds 1TD vs Denver 13-3 record , 2nd ranked D vs the run - 149 total yds 2TDs @ Dallas 9-7 record, 15th ranked D vs the run - 171 total yds 3TDs @ NY Giants 11-5 record, 12th ranked D vs the run - 184 total yds 2TDs vs San Diego 9-7 record, TOP ranked D vs the run - 179 total yds 2TDs vs Cinci 11-5 record, 20th ranked D vs the run - 222 total yds 3TDs So there are the hard #s for a finishing kick of a soft schedule closing out with 4 playoff teams and 2 nine win teams that were playoff contenders last year and will be again this year. Two of those teams were ranked #1 and #2 in the NFL against the run. The combined record of those 6 teams was 63 Ws against 33 Ls. So, anyone arguing about Larry playing a soft schedule last year, or playing a more difficult schedule THIS year, need to review these #s again. In these 6 games, against teams AVERAGING 10plus wins, Larry had a combined 1077 yds and 13TDs......that is in 6 friggin' games! Someone wanna tell me again why Larry should NOT be picked #1 overall??? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
duaneok66 0 Posted July 15, 2006 This quote is ridiculously easy to exploit, so allow me to do so. Soft Ds you say? Lets take a look at Larry's stretch run, when KC was desperate to win every game in a playoff push. I'll just break down the final SIX GAMES of the season. Oh, what do you know?........4 of those six teams were playoff teams....and the other two, San Diego and Dallas were 9 win teams that barely missed the playoffs. Hmmmmmmmm...vs New England 10-6 record , 7th ranked D vs the run - 172 total yds 1TD vs Denver 13-3 record , 2nd ranked D vs the run - 149 total yds 2TDs @ Dallas 9-7 record, 15th ranked D vs the run - 171 total yds 3TDs @ NY Giants 11-5 record, 12th ranked D vs the run - 184 total yds 2TDs vs San Diego 9-7 record, TOP ranked D vs the run - 179 total yds 2TDs vs Cinci 11-5 record, 20th ranked D vs the run - 222 total yds 3TDs So there are the hard #s for a finishing kick of a soft schedule closing out with 4 playoff teams and 2 nine win teams that were playoff contenders last year and will be again this year. Two of those teams were ranked #1 and #2 in the NFL against the run. The combined record of those 6 teams was 63 Ws against 33 Ls. So, anyone arguing about Larry playing a soft schedule last year, or playing a more difficult schedule THIS year, need to review these #s again. In these 6 games, against teams AVERAGING 10plus wins, Larry had a combined 1077 yds and 13TDs......that is in 6 friggin' games! Someone wanna tell me again why Larry should NOT be picked #1 overall??? great post; but the response to your question has already been answered in this thread 1) the Oline is great, but aging 2) Alexander is proven over SEVERAL years, LJ has only done it for less than a year . . . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lguero1 4 Posted July 15, 2006 not taking lj would be foolish with the number 1 pick. great arguments and postings. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
semaj33 0 Posted July 15, 2006 i see roaf getting hurt in about week 8 and deciding to retire... it will be hard pressed for larry to match last years totals... willis and kevin jones come to mind from last season.... but maybe thats just me... didn't larry used to be in the NBA or something...? "Grand Ma Ma"...now those were the days...lol ~out Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Freak Jones 0 Posted July 15, 2006 willis and kevin jones come to mind from last season.... I'm thinking you may have just wanted a reaction. I'm game, here goes. I have to say the back and forth on this thread has been entertaining to say the least. There have been valid points as to why LJ's stats could be lower than expectations, although this is not one of them. While I acknowledge the valid ones, I personally don't think they will be a big factor in 2006. Having said that, comparing our expectations of LJ to expectations of KJ and McGahee last year is ludicrous. 1st while they were hyped heavily, the vast majority wasn't discussing whether they should be taken with the 1st pick. As hyped as they were, we didn't think they would knock off LT and Shaun nor Priest while healthy. The reason for this was their situations. KJ had 4 100 yard games in 2004 and no multiple TD games. Willis had an excellent stretch in 2004. To put it in perspective, they were 13 & 14 in rushing that year. Willis was also tied for 4th with 13 TDs. What killed Willis last year and will probably continue is the lack of a QB threat. While Bledsoe is a statue, the guy has a serious arm and won't let defenses stack the line against the run. Losing that hurt Willis more than many could imagine including me. I totally bought in. KJ had the same issue last year as well as all of a sudden being Mr. Glass. I actually think because of the dissapointments they were last year they could both be values this year. Especially Willis. Now that he's not talked about in the 1st round, I'm much more willing to think about taking him if he drops too far. Just not in the top 5 RBs like last year. LJ was 3rd in rushing last year and 2nd in TDs scored even though he only started 9 games. Both outdid LT. Although LT's did have more TDs when you include his passing TDs. Thats why there is this debate about who should go #1. There are lessons to be learned from Willis and KJ though. The one thing that would truly concern me is if Trent Green went down this year. I would be sweating bullets for a bit. However, KC's line even with a worthless QB blows away Buffalo and Detroit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SoloMatisse 0 Posted July 15, 2006 The Willis and Kevin Jones reference should bring with it a doughnut stuffed STRAIGHT UP THE NOSE......while youre sleeping! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
