2006 Quarterbacks: Pre-Season Projections

[Kilroy 0]

1. Peyton Manning | 272 Pts | 4450/29/13 |40/0

2. Daunte Culpepper | 271 Pts | 3990/25/15 | 320/3

3. Marc Bulger | 260 Pts | 4290/26/14 | 60/1

4. Donovan McNabb | 258 Pts | 3395/24/11 | 300/3

5. Drew Bledsoe | 247 Pts | 4280/26/16 | 40/0

6. Aaron Brooks | 241 Pts | 3730/24/16 | 220/1

7. Michael Vick | 240 Pts | 2660/16/13 | 660/5

8. Tom Brady | 235 Pts | 3850/25/13 | 70/0

9. Matt Hasselbeck | 232 Pts | 3490/25/10 | 120/0

10. Jake Plummer | 230 Pts | 3640/22/14 | 180/1

11. Eli Manning | 227 Pts | 3710/25/15 | 90/0

12. Kurt Warner | 225 Pts | 3920/23/14 | 40/0

13. David Carr | 223 Pts | 3370/18/12 | 280/2

14. Jake Delhomme | 217 Pts | 3530/24/15 | 40/1

15. Byron Leftwich | 215 Pts | 3520/21/14 | 120/1

16. Trent Green | 210 Pts | 3625/21/12 | 50/0

17. Brett Favre | 209 Pts | 3690/23/18 | 50/0

18. Drew Brees | 209 Pts | 3500/23/15 | 70/0

19. Ben Roethlisberger | 209 Pts | 3170/22/11 | 100/1

20. Chris Simms | 207 Pts | 3420/20/13 | 100/1

21. Brad Johnson | 196 Pts | 3450/18/9 | 40/0

22. Steve McNair | 177 Pts | 2840/18/11 | 130/0

23. Billy Volek | 172 Pts | 3010/18/13 | 60/0

24. Charlie Frye | 169 Pts | 3100/16/16 | 130/0

25. Philip Rivers | 166 Pts | 2990/17/14 | 60/0

 

Teams QB situations that weren't Projected

*Cincinatti Bengals (Not sure what to make of Palmer's knee at the moment)

*New York Jets (It's an open battle at the moment. Pennington isn't garaunteed the job)

*Chicago Bears (Griese may be starting opening day)

*Washington Redskins (I'm not convinced Brunell has the job locked up. Even if he starts the opener)

*San Francisco 49ers (Smith may sit another season if Dilfer runs things better early on)

*Buffalo Bills (Holcomb and Losman are battling for the spot)

*Detroit Lions (I'm not sold on Kitna as the starter over McCown yet)

 

Scoring System Used

25 Yards Passing: 1 Point

1 TD Pass: 4 Points

1 Int: -2 Points

10 Yards Rushing: 1 Point

1 Rushing TD: 6 Points

 

Rankings (How I'd draft them off the board)

• 1. Peyton Manning
  • He might be the only QB who is a virtual lock to throw for over 4,000 yards at the start of every season (eventhough he missed that mark last year). He's also a safe bet to throw at least 26 TDs in a season. That combination, along with his ability to start week after week, make Manning the top ranked QB. The loss of Edgerrin James should mean the Colts go back to relying on the pass a bit more this year--which means more production from Manning. Defenses may not bite on the play-action as often however, so I wouldn't be so quick to expect 30 plus TDs from him this season.
    

2. Donovan McNabb

• TO won't be around, but that shouldn't stop McNabb from having a solid season. Reggie Brown looked good while starting the second half of last season and should be a reliable target for #5. L.J. Smith and Brian Westbrook will also be productive members in the passing game. Those 3 players should do enough to keep McNabb's production up. His rushing totals also help in his ranking here.
  

3. Tom Brady

• He's a Top 10 QB as it is, but the consistant performances you get from him week to week increase his value.
  

4. Marc Bulger

• He may come with some injury concerns, but he's a Top 5 QB when healthy. He comes with a high enough reward factor to be worth the risk. If I only get 8-10 starts out of him before he misses time-so be it. His production in those games should earn you a few more wins you may not have had otherwise.
  

5. Drew Bledsoe

• With the addition of Terrell Owens, Bledsoe should flirt with the 4,000 yard mark this season and toss 25 or more TDs. Terry Glenn and Jason Witten are also great options in the passing game for him.
  

6. Matt Hasselbeck

• More times than not, Hasselbeck provides solid production at the position. The addition of Nate Burleson should only help his production this season and against weak secondaries, he has the ability to light it up.
  

7. Eli Manning

• If he can improve his accuracy, he'll be one of the top QBs in the league this year. If I had more confidence in him, he'd be ranked higher. After a strong start, he was awful down the stretch.
  

8. Aaron Brooks

• The combination of Randy Moss, a weak defense, and Brooks mobility at the QB position should equal lots of passing yardage. Brooks may not be the best NFL QB, but when placed in the right situation, fantasy owners can reap his rewards. More times than not, Brooks should be a good start this year.
  

9. Daunte Culpepper

• If my draft was today, this is the area I'd look to roll the dice and select Culpepper. Reports on his knee have been promising and even if he doesn't start the season, I think you'll be glad you have him for the 12 or so games that he starts.
  

10. Jake Plummer

• With the addition of Javon Walker to the receiving core, and the loss of Mike Anderson in the run game, Plummer is likely to throw a bit more this season. His rushing totals also provide a couple extra points from time to time.
  

11. Jake Delhomme

• With Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson in the passing, I'll take my chances on Delhomme over some of the other QBs likely to rank around him. I also like that he's supported by a strong rushing game.
  

12. Brett Favre

• Because we lose two points for INTs in this scoring system, Favre's ranking takes a hit. He is still a solid starter however most weeks of the season.
  

[Da Bomb 0]

i can get on board with most of that... but favre is too low, and culpepper and bulger are way too high. knock down the 2 of them about 10 spots each for injury and what not, and move everyone else up, and you are sitting in pretty good shape. no way those two are passing for 8300+ and 51 TDs between the two of them imo.

 

i like that, unlike most people around here, you actually notice the QBs with rushing stats. well done there.

[Ras66not99 0]

If Culpepper reaches the 4 Grand mark passing this year.... I'll look in the mirror and say Rob you really don't know your stuff anymore and you can't evaluate NFL players like you used to....

 

where he belongs ~~> along with the rest of that 99 Qb draft class...

[Kilroy 0]

i can get on board with most of that... but favre is too low, and culpepper and bulger are way too high. knock down the 2 of them about 10 spots each for injury and what not, and move everyone else up, and you are sitting in pretty good shape. no way those two are passing for 8300+ and 51 TDs between the two of them imo.

 

i like that, unlike most people around here, you actually notice the QBs with rushing stats. well done there.

 

I know what you mean about C-pep and Bulger being high, but I'm actually going to go back and add how I would rank them in a day or two (basically list them in the order I'd draft them). I don't like predicting injuries for players, so instead I project them over a 16 game schedule, and then during the draft I knock them down a few spots because I know their chances of playing all 16 games aren't as high as others.

 

Kurt Warner for example, I have him projected 12th, but I probably wouldn't select him unless he lasted as the 18th-20th QB off the board. I'd also take a few guys ahead of Vick even though he projects to be 7th. I'd also place some extra value in Brady because he's a consistant performer from week to week.

 

 

If Culpepper reaches the 4 Grand mark passing this year.... I'll look in the mirror and say Rob you really don't know your stuff anymore and you can't evaluate NFL players like you used to....

 

where he belongs ~~> along with the rest of that 99 Qb draft class...

 

My response to Da Bomb may explain it a bit. But, if Culpepper is cleared to start in Week 1, I believe he could reach 4,000 yards passing this season. If we were coming up on the opener and nobody has seen Culpepper taking snaps and working with the first team, then I won't take him so high, but I would still like to have him for when he returns.

 

The reports concerning his rehab and progress have been very positive. I may be overly optimistic, but we'll find out more as the season nears.

[hoffdaddy 1]

The reports concerning his rehab and progress have been very positive. I may be overly optimistic, but we'll find out more as the season nears.

 

 

I'm a little confused by this logic though. If Palmer's knee injury and rehab cause you to keep him out of the rankings, how can you included Culpepper, expecially that high? The Palmer news has been every bit as good, maybe better, than the Culpepper news. Plus, Palmer is coming off a great season, while Culpepper was stinking up the joint before he got hurt.

 

Just failing to make the connection on Culpepper.

[Kilroy 0]

I'm a little confused by this logic though. If Palmer's knee injury and rehab cause you to keep him out of the rankings, how can you included Culpepper, expecially that high? The Palmer news has been every bit as good, maybe better, than the Culpepper news. Plus, Palmer is coming off a great season, while Culpepper was stinking up the joint before he got hurt.

 

Just failing to make the connection on Culpepper.

 

I haven't heard anything concrete about Palmer. It sounds like they've been rather quiet about his progress, which makes me wonder just how soon he'll be back. Maybe I've missed some things.

 

I've been hearing nothing but good things about Culpepper's progress. He's been running around and should be practicing in some capacity with the team once camp opens. The Dolphins gave up a 2nd round pick for him - maybe they knew more about his progress than we thought.

 

Also, I have Culpepper projected 2nd, but I wouldn't take him as the 2nd QB off the board. I'll rank them how I'd draft them at some point.

[RicemanX 20]

I definitely feel like you went way too high on culpepper, Vick, and Brooks. But hey, thats your opinion, I would love someone to draft culpepper and let Palmer drop to me.

Good work though. Thanks for the projections.

[PackYourNut 47]

Palmer was injured in January, Culpepper was injured in Oct. I believe. That may be why there is more info out on CPep's progress. Hence, having projections for one and not the other.

[BirdBradyBobbyOrr 0]

C Pepper is way way too high. I just have a feeling that the Joey Harrington era in Miami will be starting around week 6!

 

Favre is too low. That team was terrible and so was Favre last year. He's a warrior, I'd flip flop the numbers of the two guys.. assuming Duante is healthy.

 

Brady will break the 30 TD mark this year, the young talent he has on offense is scary. TE's FB's WR's plus solid vets and a much improved offensive line (has to be better with all the injuries it sustained last year).

 

YOU ARE INSANE TO THINK BLEDSOE PUTS UP THOSE NUMBERS!

 

Nicely done breakdown, worth reading and it's appreciated.

[mdubz 0]

not that it matters, but i disagree with pretty much all of it. i have as top 10

 

manning

brady

palmer

bulger

hasselbeck

mcnabb

warner

e. manning

green

bledsoe

[Kilroy 0]

Ranked the first 12. I'll do the rest later.