The Reggie Bush Argument

[jjbeantown 0]

Most of the discussion I've seen about Reggie Bush focuses on whether or not he or Deuce will be the primary back in the Saints offense. Doing so misses the whole point.

 

The reason Reggie Bush should be drafted no lower than the 12th RB in redraft non-ppr leagues, and probably no lower than 8 in ppr leagues, is because he is not a traditional RB. Every argument based on the fact that he is a rookie RB, or that he will be splitting carries with Deuce, or that he isn't physical enough to survive as a 20-carry back in the NFL, is based on a flawed premise: that he is a normal RB.

 

Bush is a playmaker, period. Sean Payton is known to be one of the more creative offensive minds in the game; Bush probably couldn't have landed in a much better situation coach-wise. Bush will definitely carry the rock this year as a RB, but not likely more than 10-15 times. However he will be on the field for at least 70% of the offensive plays, as a wideout, slot receiver, h-back, moving all over the field to create mismatches.

 

In the preseason, Bush has already shown that his quickness and explosion can translate to the next level. Even in the off game against the Cowboys, that play where he cut off his inside foot was just sick. However anyone taking the preseason as an indication of how he will be used in the regular season isn't paying attention. Teams run vanilla offenses during the preseason, to gauge the fundamentals of their football team and not give away anything scheme-wise. Bush will be used all over the place when the bullets start flying for real.

 

So what's the bottom line? Yes, he'll probably only get 10-15 carries. And there is simply no way he'll average any less than 5 yards a carry with those. And he'll average around 5 catches a game; we're not just talking typical RB dumpoffs here either, we're talking down the field, in space, over the middle, etc. Conservatively let's say he only gets 10 yards a catch. So you're looking at 50-75 yards rushing a game and 50 yards receiving. He'll break one for a TD at least every other game, and that's not counting any return work he might get. So 1600 total yards and 8 TDs sounds like a good *starting* point for him, with upside of up to 2000 total yards and 12-15 TDs.

 

I'd be interested to hear counterarguments. I still don't think you should take him over proven workhorses like Edge, but you can't deny that his triple-threat skills make him more than a typical RB. Stop thinking of him as a typical RB and I think his true value becomes more clear.

[GRAPHIC VIOLENCE 0]

Most of the discussion I've seen about Reggie Bush focuses on whether or not he or Deuce will be the primary back in the Saints offense. Doing so misses the whole point.

 

The reason Reggie Bush should be drafted no lower than the 12th RB in redraft non-ppr leagues, and probably no lower than 8 in ppr leagues, is because he is not a traditional RB. Every argument based on the fact that he is a rookie RB, or that he will be splitting carries with Deuce, or that he isn't physical enough to survive as a 20-carry back in the NFL, is based on a flawed premise: that he is a normal RB.

 

Bush is a playmaker, period. Sean Payton is known to be one of the more creative offensive minds in the game; Bush probably couldn't have landed in a much better situation coach-wise. Bush will definitely carry the rock this year as a RB, but not likely more than 10-15 times. However he will be on the field for at least 70% of the offensive plays, as a wideout, slot receiver, h-back, moving all over the field to create mismatches.

 

In the preseason, Bush has already shown that his quickness and explosion can translate to the next level. Even in the off game against the Cowboys, that play where he cut off his inside foot was just sick. However anyone taking the preseason as an indication of how he will be used in the regular season isn't paying attention. Teams run vanilla offenses during the preseason, to gauge the fundamentals of their football team and not give away anything scheme-wise. Bush will be used all over the place when the bullets start flying for real.

 

So what's the bottom line? Yes, he'll probably only get 10-15 carries. And there is simply no way he'll average any less than 5 yards a carry with those. And he'll average around 5 catches a game; we're not just talking typical RB dumpoffs here either, we're talking down the field, in space, over the middle, etc. Conservatively let's say he only gets 10 yards a catch. So you're looking at 50-75 yards rushing a game and 50 yards receiving. He'll break one for a TD at least every other game, and that's not counting any return work he might get. So 1600 total yards and 8 TDs sounds like a good *starting* point for him, with upside of up to 2000 total yards and 12-15 TDs.

 

I'd be interested to hear counterarguments. I still don't think you should take him over proven workhorses like Edge, but you can't deny that his triple-threat skills make him more than a typical RB. Stop thinking of him as a typical RB and I think his true value becomes more clear.

 

 

Anyone expecting Bush to be a top 10 RB this season is going to be majorly disappointed.

[jjbeantown 0]

I'd be interested to hear you justify your reasoning. I spent a good amount of time justifying mine.

[GRAPHIC VIOLENCE 0]

I'd be interested to hear you justify your reasoning. I spent a good amount of time justifying mine.

1. He's a rookie

2. He's on a bad team with a bad line

3. He's on a team with a talented RB veteran (yes he's coming back from injury)

4. He's never carried the full load as a feature back

5. He has to live up to the hype and we have to see how he will even handle it the first time he puts up a bad performance.

[jjbeantown 0]

1. He's a rookie

2. He's on a bad team with a bad line

3. He's on a team with a talented RB veteran (yes he's coming back from injury)

4. He's never carried the full load as a feature back

5. He has to live up to the hype and we have to see how he will even handle it the first time he puts up a bad performance.

 

1. That doesn't really mean much. Plenty of rookie RBs have done well.

2. The bad line doesn't mean very much to my argument. My point is that he's going to get all-purpose yards, not traditional RB yards.

3. Again, I'm not sure you read my post, but Deuce has little to no negative effect on his numbers in my argument.

4. Read my post, I'm not saying he will carry a full load.

5. Of course he hasn't lived up to the hype yet, if he had, he'd be a lock top 5 pick!

[NASDAQ 0]

1. That doesn't really mean much. Plenty of rookie RBs have done well.

2. The bad line doesn't mean very much to my argument. My point is that he's going to get all-purpose yards, not traditional RB yards.

3. Again, I'm not sure you read my post, but Deuce has little to no negative effect on his numbers in my argument.

4. Read my post, I'm not saying he will carry a full load.

5. Of course he hasn't lived up to the hype yet, if he had, he'd be a lock top 5 pick!

 

 

go ahead and take him hype buyer

 

you will be a GHOST in oct

[VaTerp 0]

While I think your projections are a bit genreous, I agree with the thinking here. Picking 8th, I am tempted to consider Bush in the second but I cant do it unless some really unforseen things happen in front of me.

 

I think Bush will develop into a Westbrook type of fantasy back except for the fact that he is more explosive and better bewteen the tackles than people give him credit for.

[escobante 0]

Bush is a playmaker, period. Sean Payton is known to be one of the more creative offensive minds in the game; Bush probably couldn't have landed in a much better situation coach-wise. Bush will definitely carry the rock this year as a RB, but not likely more than 10-15 times. However he will be on the field for at least 70% of the offensive plays, as a wideout, slot receiver, h-back, moving all over the field to create mismatches.

 

In the preseason, Bush has already shown that his quickness and explosion can translate to the next level. Even in the off game against the Cowboys, that play where he cut off his inside foot was just sick. However anyone taking the preseason as an indication of how he will be used in the regular season isn't paying attention. Teams run vanilla offenses during the preseason, to gauge the fundamentals of their football team and not give away anything scheme-wise. Bush will be used all over the place when the bullets start flying for real.

 

really. ready for the counter argument? he hasn't played a down in a regular season game yet. so you have no idea. i'm happy you are in love with him and all, but you don't "know" a thing.

 

maybe he ends up being the best running back ever, but right now he is a rookie running back who has 4 rec for 24 yards and 10 car for 66 yards. so outside of the one 44 yard run against the titans, who gave up 240 yds rushing the next week, he has 9 carries for 22 yards.

 

and please allow me to laugh out loud. sean payton, an offensive genious? you mean the guy that was so creative offensively that Jim Fassel had to take over play calling for him 3 years ago. then 2 years in dallas, where he produced a super creatively average team both years.

[jjbeantown 0]

go ahead and take him hype buyer

 

you will be a GHOST in oct

 

I already have taken him in one draft, but I won't overpay for him in the first round. What I'm looking for is flaws in my reasoning. Posts like this one just aren't constructive... point out what assumptions I'm making that are flawed. Is he not going to be in on as many offensive snaps as I think? Is he not going to be used extensively as a receiver, both in the slot and out wide in addition to out of the backfield? Just interested in hearing well thought-out counter-arguments.

 

I think the hype argument is specious... yes there is hype, but aren't a lot of people overlooking the many ways he will be used?

[hotdogcollarsdotcom 0]

just dont see that happening and here's why:

 

REASON 1 - he's a rookie and here's a look at stats of some notable RBs in their rookie years. i tried to choose a balance of RBs who had to split carries, who were wayyy hyped coming into the league, and who were considered small. i threw in LT2 just to see what a monster rookie year looks like (note these are TOTAL yds).

Ronnie Brown - 1100/5

LT2 - 1500/10

Dunn - 1400/7

Priest - 1200/7

The basic idea here is that a BIG year for a rookie RB is 1500 and 8, so to say that 1600 and 8 is a "starting point" is a bit generous. PLus, i didnt even include any "busts" in their rookie years

 

REASON 2 - The schedule

Starting week 4, the 'Aints play Carolina, Tampa, Philly, Bye, Bit'mo, Tampa, and Pittsburgh. Then they get a few easy weeks and roll into FF playoff season with Dallas, Washington, and NYG. Thats 9 out of 15 FF games they will have to face good to great defenses. And the NFC east teams they play in the FF playoffs were ranked 8,9 & 11 in total D last year and have all gotten better on that side of the ball

 

REASON 3 - Splitting time will hurt him

Sure, he's a playmakerand the Saints know that, but so does everyone else on the field. So, when he is on the field for those 25-30 plays each game, the D knows the ball is probably going to him

 

REASON 4 - They're the saints

Probably the weakest of all the reasons, but still valid. They have a new coaching staff, new players, and by the time they "gel" into their new offense, they will right in the heart of that grueling schedule

 

REASON 5 - ADP vs Value

Probably the biggest reason in my mind since Bush is SO hyped right now, I have a feeling he is going to go mid Rd2 or higher in my league (PPR that is in love with RBs). I just dont think he is that valuable this year. Myabe if you've got a top 3 pick and he makes it back to you in the snake in rd 3. But, that is the earliest i would consider him

[PRuggs 0]

I'd be interested to hear you justify your reasoning. I spent a good amount of time justifying mine.

 

 

1) Assuming he wil average over 5 yards per carry? Not that its not possible, but with thos type of numbers are very high for any top back to expect.

 

2) A good starting WR is in on 95% of all plays, and brings in 4-8 catches per game. Your saying Bush will be in on 70% of the plays but will also bring down 5 catches per game. Again I find this to be a very high assumption.

 

3) McAllester is a very good proven back in both catching and reciving, and as the year goes on he will only get better from his injury. Not that he will be top form, he will take away touches.

 

4) New coach, new QB, new team.... these are factors that are never good for a consistant offence. I don't have any stats but I'm sure there are no players to ever go even 1500 total yards in this situation.

 

5) you say he will get 10-15 carries, and 5 receptions per game and still end up with 2000 yards???

OK so say he gets 20 total touches a game... thats over 6.25 yards per touch!!!! If he can average 6.25 yards per touch as a RB, he will be the greatest RB in the history of football in his rookie season on a new team, with a new coach, and new QB

[aggiewildlife 0]

You've cleverly tried to make your argument for Bush sound uber-intelligent, but it's really not at all. All you're saying as "evidence" is that he's "not normal" and therefore good. Wow, groundbreaking analysis!

 

To say that Deuce will have little to no effect on his numbers because he'll get all-purpose yards is ludicrous. If you're not scoring TD's, yards are only moderately useful. Deuce will be taking away many TD opportunities, you cannot deny that.

 

Your "conservative" estimate of his production is pretty grand. Again, you can't just say that because he's not normal, that's somehow a valid premise for your argument. You haven't made an argument, just stated your opinion.

[NASDAQ 0]

I already have taken him in one draft, but I won't overpay for him in the first round. What I'm looking for is flaws in my reasoning. Posts like this one just aren't constructive... point out what assumptions I'm making that are flawed. Is he not going to be in on as many offensive snaps as I think? Is he not going to be used extensively as a receiver, both in the slot and out wide in addition to out of the backfield? Just interested in hearing well thought-out counter-arguments.

 

I think the hype argument is specious... yes there is hype, but aren't a lot of people overlooking the many ways he will be used?

 

you are way too blind for reasoning, you have already stated that you have taken him. The damage is done. So congrats GHOST. Way to go, will be better than Sanders. Best RB EVER!!!

 

thats what you want to hear

 

GHOST

[jjbeantown 0]

really. ready for the counter argument? he hasn't played a down in a regular season game yet. so you have no idea. i'm happy you are in love with him and all, but you don't "know" a thing.

 

maybe he ends up being the best running back ever, but right now he is a rookie running back who has 4 rec for 24 yards and 10 car for 66 yards. so outside of the one 44 yard run against the titans, who gave up 240 yds rushing the next week, he has 9 carries for 22 yards.

 

and please allow me to laugh out loud. sean payton, an offensive genious? you mean the guy that was so creative offensively that Jim Fassel had to take over play calling for him 3 years ago. then 2 years in dallas, where he produced a super creatively average team both years.

 

Of course none of us "know" a damn thing. Every projection we're making is based on a mix of our own perception of talent, past performance, etc. But don't you agree that looking at him as just a RB is flawed thinking?

 

And I've go no love for Sean Payton, I'm just saying he's thought of as a creative offensive mind by people that have forgotten more about football than any of us will ever know.

[scottlaroc 0]

So go ahead and make him your #1 RB and we'll see how it works out. The fact is simple rookie RBs very rarely, let me re-itterate, VERY RARELY make an impact for fantasy. He will most certainly help the Saints, but he will not be on my team unless he slides to the end of round 3.

 

Someone here did a nice job detailing rookie RBs and the little impact they have had. I'll try to find it.

[JREarly 0]

i dont have to justify my reasons because you guys are not in my league. my thoughts on bush are this. i will in no way shape or form take him as my #1 RB or my #2. if he happens to fall in the 4th round and be there as my #3 RB on my team, then i would consider taking him. i will let someone else have the rookie, way too high in the draft.

[GRAPHIC VIOLENCE 0]

1. That doesn't really mean much. Plenty of rookie RBs have done well.

2. The bad line doesn't mean very much to my argument. My point is that he's going to get all-purpose yards, not traditional RB yards.

3. Again, I'm not sure you read my post, but Deuce has little to no negative effect on his numbers in my argument.

4. Read my post, I'm not saying he will carry a full load.

5. Of course he hasn't lived up to the hype yet, if he had, he'd be a lock top 5 pick!

 

 

Read the whole thing.

LJ,LT2,SA,

Edge, Tiki, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, Lamont Jordan, Clinton Portis, Steven Jackson

 

Which two of these 11 will he outperform?

And there are a good number of backs not on this list that will put up better fantasy numbers than Bush.

[jjbeantown 0]

you are way too blind for reasoning, you have already stated that you have taken him. The damage is done. So congrats GHOST. Way to go, will be better than Sanders. Best RB EVER!!!

 

thats what you want to hear

 

GHOST

 

I've also passed on him in drafts. I think there is risk and also upside, which is why I have him slotted 12th among RBs.

 

He won't ever approach Barry Sanders in rushing yards IMO. But I'm looking at him as an overall offensive weapon, which is the point of my post.

[jagermeister 0]

And there is simply no way he'll average any less than 5 yards a carry with those. And he'll average around 5 catches a game; we're not just talking typical RB dumpoffs here either, we're talking down the field, in space, over the middle, etc.

 

Offer proof or your argunment is not justified!? Opinion, maybe, but far from "no way" he'll average less than 5ypg.

 

This post is premature and lame.

[jjbeantown 0]

Read the whole thing.

LJ,LT2,SA,

Edge, Tiki, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, Lamont Jordan, Clinton Portis, Steven Jackson

 

Which two of these 11 will he outperform?

And there are a good number of backs not on this list that will put up better fantasy numbers than Bush.

 

I don't necessarily think that he'll outperform any of them. I have them all ranked higher; like I said I think he should be 12th taken in non-PPR leagues. But when you start to get into Westbrook/McGahee/Jones/Parker territory, I think he has a good shot to be better than all of them. And if he's as good as some people think, he could easily surpass a few of the others.

 

So go ahead and make him your #1 RB and we'll see how it works out. The fact is simple rookie RBs very rarely, let me re-itterate, VERY RARELY make an impact for fantasy. He will most certainly help the Saints, but he will not be on my team unless he slides to the end of round 3.

 

Someone here did a nice job detailing rookie RBs and the little impact they have had. I'll try to find it.

 

I would never take him as my #1; I never said I would. I have him 12th.

 

The fundamental point I'm making is that he's not going to be used as a typical RB; he'll used all over the place which makes him more valuable.

 

I'd love to read the RB post, but I don't think it's as relevant as it would be for D. Williams, etc...

[escobante 0]

Of course none of us "know" a damn thing. Every projection we're making is based on a mix of our own perception of talent, past performance, etc. But don't you agree that looking at him as just a RB is flawed thinking?

 

And I've go no love for Sean Payton, I'm just saying he's thought of as a creative offensive mind by people that have forgotten more about football than any of us will ever know.

 

reggie isn' going to levitate, or wear flubber on his shoes. so they will use him as a receiver in some sets. but plans are plans, when it comes down to it, he will be used if he is successful in gaining yards and he won't be used if he isn't. make your projections, but give me a break on the "reasoning" crap. it's called a guess, and thats cool, but don't pretend it is more than that.

 

and is that really your response regarding sean payton, just read your words from both posts and tell me if you don't smirk a bit.

[jjbeantown 0]

just dont see that happening and here's why:

 

REASON 1 - he's a rookie and here's a look at stats of some notable RBs in their rookie years. i tried to choose a balance of RBs who had to split carries, who were wayyy hyped coming into the league, and who were considered small. i threw in LT2 just to see what a monster rookie year looks like (note these are TOTAL yds).

Ronnie Brown - 1100/5

LT2 - 1500/10

Dunn - 1400/7

Priest - 1200/7

The basic idea here is that a BIG year for a rookie RB is 1500 and 8, so to say that 1600 and 8 is a "starting point" is a bit generous. PLus, i didnt even include any "busts" in their rookie years

 

REASON 2 - The schedule

Starting week 4, the 'Aints play Carolina, Tampa, Philly, Bye, Bit'mo, Tampa, and Pittsburgh. Then they get a few easy weeks and roll into FF playoff season with Dallas, Washington, and NYG. Thats 9 out of 15 FF games they will have to face good to great defenses. And the NFC east teams they play in the FF playoffs were ranked 8,9 & 11 in total D last year and have all gotten better on that side of the ball

 

REASON 3 - Splitting time will hurt him

Sure, he's a playmakerand the Saints know that, but so does everyone else on the field. So, when he is on the field for those 25-30 plays each game, the D knows the ball is probably going to him

 

REASON 4 - They're the saints

Probably the weakest of all the reasons, but still valid. They have a new coaching staff, new players, and by the time they "gel" into their new offense, they will right in the heart of that grueling schedule

 

REASON 5 - ADP vs Value

Probably the biggest reason in my mind since Bush is SO hyped right now, I have a feeling he is going to go mid Rd2 or higher in my league (PPR that is in love with RBs). I just dont think he is that valuable this year. Myabe if you've got a top 3 pick and he makes it back to you in the snake in rd 3. But, that is the earliest i would consider him

 

1. I think comparing with other RBs is flawed reasoning. He'll be used much differently than any of those guys.

 

2. That's a good point. If those defenses play up to last year's standards he will have some absolutely brutal games if they gameplan against him.

 

3. I think he'll be on the field more than people think, probably 40 plays a game.

 

4. The Saints had an awful season, but the core of the team is there from when they weren't all that bad. With Brees coming in at QB I think they could surprise with at least a mediocre (7 or 8) win season.

 

5. Just trying to nail his actual value. Can't argue with your strategy.

[NASDAQ 0]

Do you realize you have been defending your lover for THE LAST HOUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

get a life you blind ghost

[GRAPHIC VIOLENCE 0]

I don't necessarily think that he'll outperform any of them. I have them all ranked higher; like I said I think he should be 12th taken in non-PPR leagues. But when you start to get into Westbrook/McGahee/Jones/Parker territory, I think he has a good shot to be better than all of them. And if he's as good as some people think, he could easily surpass a few of the others.

I would never take him as my #1; I never said I would. I have him 12th.

 

The fundamental point I'm making is that he's not going to be used as a typical RB; he'll used all over the place which makes him more valuable.

 

I'd love to read the RB post, but I don't think it's as relevant as it would be for D. Williams, etc...

 

 

When I claimed there wouldn't be a way I could see him sniffing the top ten in fantasy points by a RB you wanted me to justify that claim. I gave you a list that should easily smash his production and you point out that he is going to be used all over the field. You need to show which of these RBs he's going to outperform. And is he going to get more looks in the passing game than either Horn or Stallworth? I'm just trying to figure out where all this production is going to come from.

[The Unknown Soldier 0]

While they might design certain plays for him outside of a traditional running back role, you are making a big assumption that they are going to run a very untraditional offense the majority of the time. A few times a game I can see, but to have him out there 70% of the time and all over the field in every role possible and to get as many looks in the passing game as you suggest is a bit too grand a premise IMO.

[jjbeantown 0]

1) Assuming he wil average over 5 yards per carry? Not that its not possible, but with thos type of numbers are very high for any top back to expect.

 

2) A good starting WR is in on 95% of all plays, and brings in 4-8 catches per game. Your saying Bush will be in on 70% of the plays but will also bring down 5 catches per game. Again I find this to be a very high assumption.

 

3) McAllester is a very good proven back in both catching and reciving, and as the year goes on he will only get better from his injury. Not that he will be top form, he will take away touches.

 

4) New coach, new QB, new team.... these are factors that are never good for a consistant offence. I don't have any stats but I'm sure there are no players to ever go even 1500 total yards in this situation.

 

5) you say he will get 10-15 carries, and 5 receptions per game and still end up with 2000 yards???

OK so say he gets 20 total touches a game... thats over 6.25 yards per touch!!!! If he can average 6.25 yards per touch as a RB, he will be the greatest RB in the history of football in his rookie season on a new team, with a new coach, and new QB

 

1. 5ypc isn't crazy for a change of pace, slasher type back who breaks long runs. See Dunn 5.1, T. Bell 5.3.

 

2. I only think he'll get 2-3 catches at wideout, and 2-3 as typical RB screens/dumpoffs/etc.

 

3. I agree that he'll take away carries. I don't think it'll affect the other touches.

 

4. Agreed, lots of uncertainty, although at least with the QB change I'd say it's a good thing.

 

5. With those projections I predicted 1600 yards... 2000 is the upside, high end number assuming he totally goes off and has higher touch totals.

[Fred Sanford 0]

I didn't really think R. Bush would be a top 10 back until I looked at the running back standings from last year and realized being a top 10 back is not out of the question.

 

Projections- 12 carries a game at 4.5 per carry=54 yards a game, 864 for the year. 86.4 points

 

4 receptions a game at 10 yards average= 40 yards a game, 480 for the year. 48 points

 

8 Total TD's. 64 points

 

Total points in standard scoring league- 182 (exactly what the 10th place RB scored last year)

 

I don't think these numbers are that far fetched.

[jjbeantown 0]

Do you realize you have been defending your lover for THE LAST HOUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

get a life you blind ghost

 

I'm far from a ghost... been a lurker for 3 years. Just never felt compelled to post a topic before.

 

I'm not saying that Bush is the end all be all. I'm just interested to hear divergent viewpoints on how he will be used and how that affects his value.

[onejayhawk 3]

1. He's a rookie see above. Not a huge factor

2. He's on a bad team with a bad line mediocre team with a solid line

3. He's on a team with a talented RB veteran (yes he's coming back from injury) MAJOR injury. He will still be the GL back though, which is a big knock

4. He's never carried the full load as a feature back nor will he. His receiving skills will be very important, since he will likely be a flanker for most purposes

5. He has to live up to the hype and we have to see how he will even handle it the first time he puts up a bad performance. I'm not worried about his maturity. Its purely a touches thing

This is a good place to start.

 

I dont see him as a top 20 RB except in PPR. Expect a lot of his play to be returning kicks and/or punts, which have small fantasy value.

 

Here is my argument.

1) No more than 15 carries a game, more like 12 on average

2) Return duties detract from his appeal

3) Duece vultures his GL work

4) RB's can run effectively from the getgo, but Bush will need to be a great receiver to be an impact back, and that DOES take time.

 

J

[jjbeantown 0]

While they might design certain plays for him outside of a traditional running back role, you are making a big assumption that they are going to run a very untraditional offense the majority of the time. A few times a game I can see, but to have him out there 70% of the time and all over the field in every role possible and to get as many looks in the passing game as you suggest is a bit too grand a premise IMO.

 

That's an interesting point. My thinking is that they are going to just insert him as a WR on plays within the offense, making the offense not very unconventional, just their use of him unconventional. But on second thought trying to learn all those positions and routes would be a lot for a rookie. I still think he's going to be on the field for a majority of the plays, but agree that maybe not as much at WR, at least early on.

[GRAPHIC VIOLENCE 0]

That's an interesting point. My thinking is that they are going to just insert him as a WR on plays within the offense, making the offense not very unconventional, just their use of him unconventional. But on second thought trying to learn all those positions and routes would be a lot for a rookie. I still think he's going to be on the field for a majority of the plays, but agree that maybe not as much at WR, at least early on.

 

yea, I just don't see Bush out there on alot of two receiver sets. I think New Orleans will use him 3 or 4 times a game as the third receiver. That's about it.

[jjbeantown 0]

When I claimed there wouldn't be a way I could see him sniffing the top ten in fantasy points by a RB you wanted me to justify that claim. I gave you a list that should easily smash his production and you point out that he is going to be used all over the field. You need to show which of these RBs he's going to outperform. And is he going to get more looks in the passing game than either Horn or Stallworth? I'm just trying to figure out where all this production is going to come from.

 

Well you said whoever expects him to be top 10 will be horribly disappointed; that's a pretty strong statement that he won't even come close. I just wanted to know your thinking.

 

I don't think he'll get more looks than either of those guys. I see 2-3 downfield receptions per game, probably less at the beginning of the year. But that's 30-50 yards receiving that most other backs never sniff.

[CBFan 0]

While they might design certain plays for him outside of a traditional running back role, you are making a big assumption that they are going to run a very untraditional offense the majority of the time. A few times a game I can see, but to have him out there 70% of the time and all over the field in every role possible and to get as many looks in the passing game as you suggest is a bit too grand a premise IMO.

 

While this is only a guess, I would expect that a rookie has plenty to learn in their first training camp for one position, and if they are to spend any time learning multiple positions, it would be in extremely limited capacity. I can see him spending some time as a receiver, but I don't see any way that a rookie, at least early in the season, would be capable of learning the offense enough to be used in that many different positions and situations.

[jjbeantown 0]

This is a good place to start.

 

I dont see him as a top 20 RB except in PPR. Expect a lot of his play to be returning kicks and/or punts, which have small fantasy value.

 

Here is my argument.

1) No more than 15 carries a game, more like 12 on average

2) Return duties detract from his appeal

3) Duece vultures his GL work

4) RB's can run effectively from the getgo, but Bush will need to be a great receiver to be an impact back, and that DOES take time.

 

J

 

I agree with most of what you're saying. The only thing I might point out is how easy it is to be a top 20 RB even without PPR. Last year the 20th RB only averaged a little over 9ppg. That really isn't much production.

[GRAPHIC VIOLENCE 0]

Well you said whoever expects him to be top 10 will be horribly disappointed; that's a pretty strong statement that he won't even come close. I just wanted to know your thinking.

 

I don't think he'll get more looks than either of those guys. I see 2-3 downfield receptions per game, probably less at the beginning of the year. But that's 30-50 yards receiving that most other backs never sniff.

 

 

So he's going to average 2-3 catches and 30-50 yards receiving a game

 

I see him being more of a decoy in the passing game and maybe getting one downfield reception every other game or so.

[jjbeantown 0]

So he's going to average 2-3 catches and 30-50 yards receiving a game

 

I see him being more of a decoy in the passing game and maybe getting one downfield reception every other game or so.

 

We'll see how it goes... supposedly they're planning on using him like Carroll did at USC, where he was split out pretty often and had a lot of big catches down the field. But this might be a lot to expect out of a rookie in a more complicated pro offense.

[Fred Sanford 0]

So he's going to average 2-3 catches and 30-50 yards receiving a game

 

I see him being more of a decoy in the passing game and maybe getting one downfield reception every other game or so.

 

Yeah, let's use our 1st round, 2nd overall pick as a decoy. He was on the field for the 2nd play of the first preseason game. I don't think he's gonna be a decoy.

[jjbeantown 0]

You've cleverly tried to make your argument for Bush sound uber-intelligent, but it's really not at all. All you're saying as "evidence" is that he's "not normal" and therefore good. Wow, groundbreaking analysis!

 

To say that Deuce will have little to no effect on his numbers because he'll get all-purpose yards is ludicrous. If you're not scoring TD's, yards are only moderately useful. Deuce will be taking away many TD opportunities, you cannot deny that.

 

Your "conservative" estimate of his production is pretty grand. Again, you can't just say that because he's not normal, that's somehow a valid premise for your argument. You haven't made an argument, just stated your opinion.

 

Sorry for trying to bring more to the table than "I think Bush will be top 5 this year! 2000 yards and 20 TDs!". I actually like to back up my projections with my thought process...

 

The evidence is his college production compared to his peers and the college production of other great NFL running backs. RB is one of the positions that projects very accurately to the NFL. He had some ungodly all-purpose stats. That is the only evidence anyone has to go on.

 

RE: Deuce: exactly why I'm not arguing that he'll be a top 5 back. I think he'll have lots of yards, but not a lot of TDs.

 

All of us are only stating our opinion. Reiterating that is useless.

[GRAPHIC VIOLENCE 0]

We'll see how it goes... supposedly they're planning on using him like Carroll did at USC, where he was split out pretty often and had a lot of big catches down the field. But this might be a lot to expect out of a rookie in a more complicated pro offense.

 

 

I can't be 100% sure but I don't think Marshall Faulk ever averaged 2-3 catches and 30-50 yards in a season and that would be a tough guy to measure up to in that department.

 

Yeah, let's use our 1st round, 2nd overall pick as a decoy. He was on the field for the 2nd play of the first preseason game. I don't think he's gonna be a decoy.

 

 

So he's going to be the primary target on most plays he's split out on? Over Horn and Stallworth?

[jjbeantown 0]

I can't be 100% sure but I don't think Marshall Faulk ever averaged 2-3 catches and 30-50 yards in a season and that would be a tough guy to measure up to in that department.

So he's going to be the primary target on most plays he's split out on? Over Horn and Stallworth?

 

Well here are the stats:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1109

 

Marshall several times averaged well over 50 yards/game, and 10yards/rec.