Rbs Heavy Workload Article

[NAn 39]

This will likely get loss in shuffle of Sunday's games...may bump come Monday morning, but started this and finished it so putting it out there as is.

Look forward to your comments.

 

Prior to this season I wrote an article re: the statistical history of Rbs with seasons of ’heavy workloads’ and how those Rbs performed after those ‘heavy workload’ seasons.

 

Can refer to article here.

 

The article cited:

*83.3% chance that those Rbs would decrease in touches (f/carries as defined in article)

*71.5% chance that those Rbs would decrease in ff production (just 12.3% worthy of 1st round pick)

*76.9 % chance that those Rbs would miss game/s due to injury

 

Specifically, the article cited the following Rbs:

Shaun Alexander

Tiki Barber

Edgerrin James

 

Now, 7 weeks into the NFL regular season, for many the halfway point of the fantasy football regular season, a look back.

(Note that will use a breakdown of average carries, average ff pts for comparisons…obviously statistics can change between now and end of season, just going off what I can to this point in season…intend to revisit at later point/s in season)

 

Increase or decrease in f/carries?

Shaun Alexander

‘05 - 378 f/carries, average 23.7 per game

‘06 - 68 f/carries (3 games), average 22.6 per game (if factor in missed time then 11.3 per game)

Tiki Barber

‘05 - 384 f/carries, average 24.0 per game

‘06 - 142 f/carries (6 games), 23.6

Edgerrin James

‘05 - 382 f/carries, average 25.5 per game

‘06 - 173 f/carries (7 games), average 24.7 per game

 

*In all cases, the decrease in f/carries is nominal

*In all cases there is in fact a decrease in f/carries

 

Increase or decrease in ff production?

Shaun Alexander

‘05 - 353 ff pts, 22.1 ffppg

‘06 - 28 ff pts (3 games), 9.3 ffppg (if factor in missed time then 4.7 ffppg)

‘06 projected full season- 75 ff pts

Tiki Barber

‘05 - 295 ff pts, 18.4 ffppg

‘06 - 81 ff pts (6 games), 13.5 ffppg

‘06 projected full season - 216 ff pts

Edgerrin James

‘05 - 253 ff pts, 16.9 ffppg

‘06 - 62 ff pts (7 games), 8.8 ffppg

‘06 projected full season - 141 ff pts

 

*Alexander’s projected ffppg will likely be higher should he come back strong, but safe to say that even so, it will still be significantly less than what many expected going into the season.

*Barber has still remained relatively productive (currently leads NFL in rushing), but again, significantly less than what many expected.

*James could still turn things around, but by all accounts looks like will fall considerably short of expectations.

*None of the 3 players ff projections for '06 would have them worthy of 1st round pick (250 ff pts)

 

Other Rbs

Also noted were following Rbs who attained heavy workload benchmark other than last year that many projected for ‘bounce back’ years. Cited in article that 73.8% chance that these Rbs would not even attain 200 ff pts:

Ahman Green

Deuce Mcallister

Jamal Lewis

Curtis Martin

 

Ahman Green (4 games)

‘06 - 52 ff pts, 8.7 ffppg

‘06 projected full season - 139 ff pts

Deuce Mcallister (6 games)

‘06 - 79 ff pts, 13.2 ffppg

‘06 projected full season - 211 ff pts

Jamal Lewis (6 games)

‘06 - 39 ff pts, 6.5 ffppg

‘06 projected full season - 104 ff pts

Curtis Martin (0 games)

‘06 - 0 ff pts, 0.0 ffppg

‘06 projected full season - 0.0 ffppg

 

*3 of 4 players (75%) likely nominal ff production for a Rb (less than 140 ff pts)

*1 of 4 players (25%), Mcallister, likely solid ff production for a Rb (200 ff pts)

*Green could change these numbers if can stay healthy, but to date has missed 2 of 6 games

 

Missed Games

Shaun Alexander 3 games

Ahman Green 2 games

Curtis Martin 6 games

 

*3 of 8 players missed game due to injury (37.5%)

*Alexander will likely miss at least 1 more game due to injury

*Martin will likely continue to miss game/s due to injury

*Of those who have not missed time, several are carrying the ball significantly less than in years past (part of significance of data): Mcallister, Lewis in RBBC situations, Tiki less touches particularly in RZ.

*Mcallister on pace to have productive ff season

 

Intend to revisit data after wk13 and after wk17.

 

All comments welcome.

[vardaski 0]

After I saw this article I didn't touch tiki, shawn, or edge and it paid off in every case. I had the 2nd pick and took LT instead of SA, I had the 4th pick in another draft and took R brown instead of Tiki (This is barely better and I could lose this one in the end). With the 5th pick in my other draft I took S. Jackson when both tiki (again barely paying off) or edge was there. I did take green in one of my leagues but he was already my 3rd or 4th rb so I'm not complaining. Also took Lewis but traded him away for hines ward and that has paid off. Have McCallister in one league but have not actually played him yet and have been looking to trade him.

I thought the article was great and definitely took it into consideration. My biggest pay off is passing on shawn which many thought I was crazy at the time. I had actually rated LT number 1 before I saw your article but it gave me some confidence to stick with it. I could still lose passing on Tiki.

[TheGiantJets 18]

My main money league I have LT and none of the guys listed above were available anyways. However i did trade Westy/Glenn for Tiki/Ward 2 weeks ago and boy has it paid off. Looks as though Tiki is not bothered by the high work load but this is his last year and is going all out. LT should be on the list with Shaun/Tiki/Edge because his carries/receptions are almost equal with shaun so be wary of him the next couple of years.

 

The work load article did however help me in my new dynasty league which i created this year with 10 teams. I had first pick and was rattling my brain on who to take. I was going to take shaun but went with Larry Johnson for the youth and that he is just a monster. Could have gone with LT as well but have him in my other league. better not to put all my egss in one basket, plus in a dynasty league LT will depreciate a lot more in value than Larry Johnson. But i do have Turner too. All in all this study of workload is very valuable and can predict when a player will decrease his production to a good percentage of certainty.

[NAn 39]

Monday Bump

[norseman 0]

It seemed like a smart article when I read it pre-draft, and I avoided Tiki and Edge to some degree because of it. It still seems like a very smart piece midway through the season.

 

I would argue that Edge's decline in performance is due more to his switch to the Cardinals than to the workload issue, but it may be a combination of both.

 

In any event, well done, NAn. You deserve a shout out for your keen analysis here.

[ajmplaya69 0]

Great article...nominated for best of the off season.

[OB1 33]

I touted this article in threads about Tiki and SA all preseason. Great piece, and it's holding up to the test of time.

[sanders 0]

This article doesn't tell you anything.

 

What about LT and LJ - they both get the rock all the time and keep producing.

Tiki Barber just hasn't hit the endzone but he is running very well.

 

So let's see, out of LJ, LT, SA, Tiki - one guy is having a bad season and that's because of an injury - was it due to his workload last season? maybe?

 

1 out of 4 - this theory doesn't hold water.

 

You can't count Edge beacause hey - he's on the Cardinals and never had a run longer than 10 yards with Indy - if you didn't see his numbers dropping you don't know much.

Curtis Martin is in his mid 30's you don't need this article to tell you he could break down.

 

All this article did was selectively choose RBs to try and prove some point which isn't valid.

[gobuckeyes 0]

This article doesn't tell you anything.

 

What about LT and LJ - they both get the rock all the time and keep producing.

Tiki Barber just hasn't hit the endzone but he is running very well.

 

So let's see, out of LJ, LT, SA, Tiki - one guy is having a bad season and that's because of an injury - was it due to his workload last season? maybe?

 

1 out of 4 - this theory doesn't hold water.

 

You can't count Edge beacause hey - he's on the Cardinals and never had a run longer than 10 yards with Indy - if you didn't see his numbers dropping you don't know much.

Curtis Martin is in his mid 30's you don't need this article to tell you he could break down.

 

All this article did was selectively choose RBs to try and prove some point which isn't valid.

 

I think you missed the point of the article entirely. One, the article looks at RB production the year after a heavy workload season. Both LT and LJ are in the midst of that season, rather than coming off of it. This is particularly true for LJ who didn't become a starter until halfway through last season. Two, this is a statistical analysis of heavy workload RBs, simply pointing out that they are more likely to be injured or decrease production following a heavy workload year. I think the numbers from this season are pretty clear that San Nicol's analysis was right on. You can say what you want about Edge being a Card, but I watched a couple of their games and JJ Arrington looks a lot better than he does.

 

I think another interesting area to look at would be playoff games effects on players. Teams who play 2-4 games in addition to the grueling 16 game schedule. Look at both Seattle and Pittsburg, while most of their famous injuries (Hasslebeck, Big Ben) aren't really related to workload, they have had many which could be, particularly in Seattle's defense and both teams' offensive lines.

[ChasFile 0]

Less mashed potatos, fewer frenched fries.

[dak11 0]

This article doesn't tell you anything.

 

What about LT and LJ - they both get the rock all the time and keep producing.

Tiki Barber just hasn't hit the endzone but he is running very well.

 

So let's see, out of LJ, LT, SA, Tiki - one guy is having a bad season and that's because of an injury - was it due to his workload last season? maybe?

 

1 out of 4 - this theory doesn't hold water.

 

You can't count Edge beacause hey - he's on the Cardinals and never had a run longer than 10 yards with Indy - if you didn't see his numbers dropping you don't know much.

Curtis Martin is in his mid 30's you don't need this article to tell you he could break down.

 

All this article did was selectively choose RBs to try and prove some point which isn't valid.

 

I wouldn't say it didn't tell you anything, but it obviously was biased in a sense to leave out certain players who would have disproved the 'theory'. Case in point is the 370 f/carries benchmark which was just high enough to leave out, for example, Tomlinson's ~364 f/carries and Johnson's ~351 f/carries.

 

Really wasn't much of a stretch to predict Alexander's and James' production could slip. One was coming off a career year and the other was going from a high powered offense to one with O-line issues.

[NAn 39]

Appreciate all the comments guys.

 

I don't do this to 'pat myself on back', but to honestly look to see if the analysis holds up, so appreciate also discerning opinions by sanders/dax/etc.

 

To address those discerning opinions:

 

*As one poster pointed out, it's not just about the 'top guys'...LJ and LT didn't meet criteria so they weren't included.

 

*As for one of the guys being injured and that's why production went down (Alexander)...well that was part of point of the analysis, that a RB coming off a 'heavy workload' year could likely miss games and therefore likely produce less.

 

*Good pt was made that 'what about other RBs with heavy workloads? Particularly LT and Rudi. Were they left out b/c they 'disproved' the theory?

Need to go back to the beginning for this. This was not an article based on just last year to this year. Original article (if read beginning of article cited) was written 3 years ago based on data gathered at that time. So, I didn't just choose a number that would disprove it for this year. Again beginning of the article cited, shows that even since then, data has held up more than it hasn't.

 

*Re: that original analysis and analysis since though: You're right. It was not some arbitrary number of '370' I picked out of a hat. I looked at various numbers to benchmark as a 'heavy workload' and settled on 370 b/c that was the pt when the data really started to say something. Looking at numbers for 350-369 f/carries, the data showed that, more or less, a RB was just as likely to do well as fall off (about 58% would be 'FF productive' if memory serves, not a strong number either way).

Again, cited were LT/Rudi who fell in that 350-369 range...Portis was also in that range. He looks like he is on way to very productive season, but he did miss time. Pt being, data seems to be saying that if you do get a RB with 350-369 f/carries (in some cases less), that he is 'safe'.

LT in fact dodged bullet of '370' most of his years and so has continued to be successful year after year. Holmes also never attained 370 during his run as FF stud, but was in 350-369 a few years (even in the 340s a few years). Marshall Faulk also never attained 370, actually in the 320-340 range, during his run. Again, possible conclusion could be drawn that they were successful for so long b/c they didn't attain 370 benchmark.

Other RBs who attained 370, fell off quickly, usually the year after attaining that number: Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Ricky Williams, Terrell Davis, Eddie George

 

 

*Valid pts were made: 'Not much of a stretch to see Alexander's numbers coming down', 'Edge was going to Cards, don't need to know much to know he would drop off', etc.

Absolutely right. But we FFers are funny. B/c despite all that, most FFers still had those guys ranked top1-8, definite 1st rnders....so despite the 'common sense' of 'of course their production will drop' with those players, many still ranked them high.

 

*Lastly, by no means am I saying the data is infallible...Tiki isn't getting TDs and though short of last year, still on pace for 1900totyds, Deuce looks like he may have a solid year, Green as well if you spot start him when he's healthy.

This data is just a tool...in the article I say as much, conceding that I'm not saying outright 'don't draft these guys', just take the information into consideration when drafting/ranking, consider each player's individual situation and adjust accordingly.

A few have pointed out that they didn't overhaul their entire draft b/c of the article, but 'adjusted' a bit. Also that Edge going to Cards is a factor more than his prior workload...solid case of considering the individual situation of the player. Case could also be made for Tiki, where one could consider that Jacobs ran well last year when given chance and during preseason. That Jacobs was a 'bigger' RB. One could have considered that and thought: 'Tiki could still got alot of yds, but they may use Jacobs at GL, so Tiki may not get as many TDs'.

Again, just a tool...beyond that, take the information, or not, as you see fit.

 

Again, will revisit the data come wk13 and wk17, plus intend to do this article each preseason moving forward.