***Official Week 14 NFL Gambling Thread***

[swirvenirvin 25]

PITTSBURGH 7 Cleveland

 

Sunday, Dec. 10

 

KANSAS CITY 3 Baltimore

 

Atlanta 3 TAMPA BAY

 

DETROIT 1½ Minnesota

 

HOUSTON 1 Tennessee

 

CAROLINA 2½ NY Giants

 

DALLAS 7 New Orleans

 

NY JETS 3½ Buffalo

 

Indianapolis 1½ JACKSONVILLE

 

Philadelphia 1½ WASHINGTON

 

CINCINNATI 11 Oakland

 

New England 3½ MIAMI

 

SAN FRANCISCO 4½ Green Bay

 

Seattle 3½ ARIZONA

 

SAN DIEGO 7½ Denver

 

Monday, Dec. 11

 

Chicago 6½ ST. LOUIS

 

 

 

I went 13-3 last week vs the spread pretty much went against the public.

 

My sorry ass record stands at 83-103-4

[swirvenirvin 25]

I really don't see too much I like

 

Straight Wager 12/07/06 17:07 ET

Result: Pending

Kellen Winslow (Browns) Total Receiving Yards on First Reception - Must Play

Yards on 1st Reception

No Receptions - No Action 12/07/06 (20:00 ET)

Over 8.5 (-115)

[GiantsRule 0]

I grabbed Ben Roethlisberger Over 16.5 completions (EVEN) last night. This was before I knew the weather was going to be sh!t (again on Thursday night).

 

Going to try and see if any of my other outs have the same line at 18.5 or 19.5 completions so I can try and middle. Ben only passes when necessary and if it's going to be a snowstorm, it might be Willie/Davenport all night long.

 

Hit a middle on this prop last week with Palmer (had Over 20.5 and Under 22.5) but I know that's a once in a LONG while gift. But I don't want to lose money on something that looks very iffy tonight.

[swirvenirvin 25]

I grabbed Ben Roethlisberger Over 16.5 completions (EVEN) last night. This was before I knew the weather was going to be sh!t (again on Thursday night).

 

Going to try and see if any of my other outs have the same line at 18.5 or 19.5 completions so I can try and middle. Ben only passes when necessary and if it's going to be a snowstorm, it might be Willie/Davenport all night long.

 

Hit a middle on this prop last week with Palmer (had Over 20.5 and Under 22.5) but I know that's a once in a LONG while gift. But I don't want to lose money on something that looks very iffy tonight.

 

 

I really didnt see much in props I liked.

 

The winslow was the bets

 

Willie at 21.5 carries but who knows.

 

I usually like yardage totals and neither on the sites I use offered much

 

I grabbed Ben Roethlisberger Over 16.5 completions (EVEN) last night. This was before I knew the weather was going to be sh!t (again on Thursday night).

 

Going to try and see if any of my other outs have the same line at 18.5 or 19.5 completions so I can try and middle. Ben only passes when necessary and if it's going to be a snowstorm, it might be Willie/Davenport all night long.

 

Hit a middle on this prop last week with Palmer (had Over 20.5 and Under 22.5) but I know that's a once in a LONG while gift. But I don't want to lose money on something that looks very iffy tonight.

 

 

Also I was still thinking about betting on that 16.5 for Ben but yeah he is so hit and miss, if they are down he completes 30

[Bouve-Rules 0]

My plays have been ripe for the fading. Hopefully someone other than Bodog has been making out the last few weeks. Chargers killed me on Sunday with the BS interception/fumble late in the 4th.

 

I'm leaning towards the Steelers -7.5

 

Please wager accordingly.

[vwneogeovw 0]

I like Pitt to cover tonight.

 

Also like Tennesee on Sunday although the situation I dont like. Let down game coming off big win against Indy. The Titans are by far the better team IMO though.

 

My picks for Sunday....

 

Tenn +1 @ HOU

 

NO + 7.5 @ DAL

 

ATL -3 @ TB

 

GB +4 @ SF

 

BUF @ NYJ -3.5

[Ras66not99 0]

Take the Nets +3 tonight in the NBA.....and thank me later

 

Line makes NO SENSE AT ALL !!!!!

[GiantsRule 0]

I grabbed Ben Roethlisberger Over 16.5 completions (EVEN) last night. This was before I knew the weather was going to be sh!t (again on Thursday night).

 

Going to try and see if any of my other outs have the same line at 18.5 or 19.5 completions so I can try and middle. Ben only passes when necessary and if it's going to be a snowstorm, it might be Willie/Davenport all night long.

 

Hit a middle on this prop last week with Palmer (had Over 20.5 and Under 22.5) but I know that's a once in a LONG while gift. But I don't want to lose money on something that looks very iffy tonight.

 

Bingo!

 

Ben Roethlisberger Over 16.5 completions (EVEN)

 

Ben Roethlisberger Under 19.5 completions (-140)

 

Big juice, but with a big middle like this (3 completions isn't like giving 3 points), it's a no brainer. I figured Ben to have between 18-19 completions before I saw the line (which obviously is the perfect scenario).

 

If I can only win one, I hope it's the Under since the over is at a book I'm hoping to scalp out of.

 

Good luck to all! C'mon middle!

 

[swirvenirvin 25]

Bingo!

 

Ben Roethlisberger Over 16.5 completions (EVEN)

 

Ben Roethlisberger Under 19.5 completions (-140)

 

Big juice, but with a big middle like this (3 completions isn't like giving 3 points), it's a no brainer. I figured Ben to have between 18-19 completions before I saw the line (which obviously is the perfect scenario).

 

If I can only win one, I hope it's the Under since the over is at a book I'm hoping to scalp out of.

 

Good luck to all! C'mon middle!

 

 

 

I think we both got our ass kicked

[GiantsRule 0]

I think we both got our ass kicked

 

Nah. Minimal loss because of juice. Like I said, hitting the under helps me clear money out of a book I hate. And because I'm the wussiest bettor ever, I'd hedge a sure winner with 5 seconds left if it helped me minimize losses! The weather cost me the playoffs in fantasy (benched Washington in a TD-length league because of it) but it's the main reason I looked to hedge the Ben prop.

 

I never bet college basketball, but even I couldn't figure out how an 8-1 Michigan team could only be 2 point favorites to 5-7 Miami-Ohio so I hit that one pretty easily.

 

Also hit a longshot halftime parlay that I thought had ZERO chance:

 

3rd qtr Pittsburgh -0.5 (EVEN)

3rd qtr Clev-Pitt Over 7.5 (+150!?!)

 

Paid almost 4:1 odds.

 

Sitting on 1H NBA Miami-Sacramento Under 97. Low scoring early but it's just that, early.

 

Even though I didn't have it, I'm drooling just looking at all of the over possibilities from that Nets-Suns game. 161-157 in 2X OT. I think every quarter went over. The bookies took a freakin' bath on that one!

[JesterX911 0]

Where dp you guys gamble online and where can you bet on player statistics?

 

I currently use sports.com but not to impressed

[BMoney 0]

Take the Nets +3 tonight in the NBA.....and thank me later

 

Line makes NO SENSE AT ALL !!!!!

 

 

i hope u also bet the over in that nutty game....

 

 

vince returns to texas? and gets 1 point vs the crappy texans? merry christmas to us?...the titans have shown the ability to be down 21-0 in games...but i think vince goes crazy...

 

the packers havent played well enough to worry about the 4 points...i stay far from their games...

[GiantsRule 0]

Where dp you guys gamble online and where can you bet on player statistics?

 

I currently use sports.com but not to impressed

 

Jester: Check my signature below.

 

I use a variety of online books to line shop, but Olympic is head & shoulders above the rest. The lines are consistently better. You have more betting options (whether you like betting quarters, team totals, or 1st half moneylines) and their prop bets (which are the player statistics bets you asked about), can't be beat. They also feature the highest limits on those type of wagers ($500 where most other books may cap it at $100 to $300). And the sign-on bonus (21% of your first deposit up to $250) is one of the best with one of the industry's smallest rollover requirements (the number of times you must bet your deposit + bonuses before you can request a withdrawal.)

 

Feel free to shoot me an email if you want more info about Olympic/The Greek.

[GobbleDog 816]

My account is on life-support, so I'm putting nearly all of it on just one game this week: IND -1.5 vs JAC

 

Seems to me anytime you can get Peyton Manning and the Colts laying less than a field goal, you take it. Especially against a Jags team who's been up and down all season.

 

Let's Go Colts!!! Here's to keeping my account alive through the playoffs!!!

[Parja 0]

I use a variety of online books to line shop, but Olympic is head & shoulders above the rest. The lines are consistently better.

 

I like using a combo of Olympic and Bodog since their lines tend to go to opposite extremes.

[GiantsRule 0]

I like using a combo of Olympic and Bodog since their lines tend to go to opposite extremes.

 

That is true. I had a Bodog account for a few weeks (strictly because there was a promo offer for "deposit $100; get $100" and I am an extreme bonus wh0re!). Ended up losing everything in there (usually through middle opportunities) because they would have lines that weren't even close to OLY's.

 

Example: If a halftime line was -4.5 at OLY, you could likely find +6.5 or even +7 (perhaps with a bit more juice) at Bodog. Same thing if you liked the opposite side of a public play (you love Arizona vs. Seattle but most books have Zona at +3.5; it's not uncommon to find it at +5 at Bodog).

 

On the flip side, if you like a favorite, Bodog is almost useless. You'll never find a line that's better than your standard sportsbook.

[GobbleDog 816]

On the flip side, if you like a favorite, Bodog is almost useless.

 

Yep. Hence my dwindling Bodog account.

[Parja 0]

On the flip side, if you like a favorite, Bodog is almost useless.

 

Yup, seems Bodog is short for Betting On DOGs.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Where dp you guys gamble online and where can you bet on player statistics?

 

I currently use sports.com but not to impressed

 

 

www.mysportsbook.com

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

I like the Indy/JAX UNDER...

 

Very tight lines this week IMO.

[thekris 0]

I'm leaning towards a few bets for this week...depending on how well I do on college basketball later today and how much money I'll have in my account:

 

Atlanta -3 vs. TB - Tampa Bay is garbage. Atlanta, especially Vick, is hit or miss but I think this'll be one of his good weeks

 

Indy -1 vs. Jax - Indy's falling apart now but I think they'll beat Jax by at least 2 points.

 

Tenn +1 vs. Houston - As stated on this board already, Vince Young is getting better each week and returning to Texas should really light a fire under his a$$ to perform well.

 

Will post my definite picks tomorrow night but this is what I'm checking out so far.

[JT 137]

I play lots more college than NFL, but there's one game that jumps out at me this week: Arizona +3 vs Seattle.

 

The Seahawks won at Denver in large part because Cutler has a very limited command of the offense. Their pass defense is average at best, giving up a 61% completion rate to opposing QB's. That number jumps to near 65% on the road to the likes of Kitna, Grossman, Huard & Alex Smith. They're 2-4 on the road, with losses at Detroit, Chicago, KC and San Fran (wins at St Louis & Denver). Seattle also coming off a short week.

 

Leinart has been decidedly better at home, completing near 60% vs his season avg of 56%. Those home stats have come against some pretty decent pass defenses (KC, Chi, dal) and Detroit.

 

I like the Cards getting 3, and to have a good shot at winning this one outright.

 

Also on:

 

Miami +3.5 vs New England : Pats averaging 23.4 pts per gm, but almost 9 fewer per gm vs upper tier AFC defenses (Miami, Denver, Indy). Fins had a bad loss last week, and come out strong vs a division opponent.

 

ETA: Looks like no Maroney for the Pats. Even more reason to like Miami.

 

SD -7 Denver: Chargers have had trouble focusing lately vs bad teams. They won't have a problem getting up for Denver. Chargers play the run very well, forcing Cutler to throw. It'll get ugly as SD crushes the Broncos.

 

Watch the Bucs +3 vs Atlanta. After a season opening slaughter in Tampa vs Baltimore, the Bucs are 4-1 at home. 4 of the 5 have been decided by 3 pts or less, with a 31-14 loss to the Saints being the only exception. They're home after two straight road games, and Atlanta's offense has a very small margin of error. The Falcons are unpredictable though, so I'd skip this one.

 

I really want to take Jax vs Indy, but it looks like Sanders could play for the Colts. They're a far better run defense with him on the field, so I'll have to stay away from that one.

 

Just my .02. Good luck to all!

[Mad Matt 0]

Got killed earlier this season. Wasted the budget by week 5. For the last 8 weeks I’ve been doing nothing but re-calibrating, just waiting in reeds like an alligator waiting to get back in the action. I finally believe I’m onto something.

 

I went with the Money Line on these games.

 

Packers over the 9ers: Straight Up. Alex Smith is playing horrible. Favre should be fine.

Titans over Texans: How are they the underdog?

 

If these games don’t pay. It’s over till the playoffs for me.

 

 

 

 

FYI: Borrowed from a classy columnist.

 

Favorites vs. spread: 80-105-6

Home teams vs. spread: 99-86-6

Road favorites: 22-40-3

Dogs winning outright: 74 of 105

[GiantsRule 0]

Thanks to an unbelievable day with college basketball (winning a ton of 1st half plays despite knowing nothing about the sport), I'm able to take a few risks later this afternoon. If they hit, my bankroll will be back to the record levels I realized just a month ago.

 

Matt Jones Over 3.5 receptions (+170)

Jones has played three complete games and had more than 4 receptions in two of them (with last week being his best game of the season.) If the world is working properly and the Colts lead for much of this game, Jones could be the recipient of a lot of looks in garbage time.

 

Tom Brady Over 20 completions (-115)

Gotta stick with what brought me to the dance. With Maroney out and Dillon only a factor at the goalline lately, Brady is going to need his accuracy to succeed in Miami. Also a good bet because the Pats typically struggle in Miami and Brady may have to pass to bring his team back in the game.

 

Instant Gratification First Half Unders Parlay:

 

Atlanta Falcons/Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 19½ (-105)

Tennessee Titans/Houston Texans under 21 (-110)

Indianapolis Colts/Jacksonville Jaguars under 22 (-105)

 

No Risk Middle Props

 

Tiki Barber -24.5 rushing + receiving yards over DeAngelo Williams (-180)

 

DeAngelo Williams +28.5 rushing + receiving yards over Tiki Barber (+240)

A Barber lead of 25, 26, 27, 28 will cash both. Williams may not have the opportunity with Foster getting the starting job back. If the Barber side wins, I lose nothing. If Williams uses those free yards properly, I make money.

 

Eddie Kennison Over 4 receptions (+200)

 

Eddie Kennison Under 4.5 receptions (-130)

4 catches or higher, and I'm in great shape. Less than 4, lose nothing.

 

May take a prop in the 4 p.m. games or some 1st half bets if they look decent.

 

Good luck to all!

 

[phillybear 364]

I'll probably only play a couple games today. I pounded Jacksonville in the early action.

[GiantsRule 0]

Added a 3-team "sucker bets" parlay:

 

Tennessee ML (EVEN)

Minnesota ML (EVEN)

Indianapolis -1 (-105)

 

Good luck to all!

 

[GobbleDog 816]

I'll probably only play a couple games today. I pounded Jacksonville in the early action.

 

But I've got the farm riding on IND!?!?!? Are you saying I'm gonna lose my farm?

[EAwer 1]

i forsee a bad day for the public with TB, Ari, and Car all covering. I feel Hou will prob beat Ten but dont love it.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Straight Wager 12/10/06 10:29 ET

Result: Pending

Ahman Green (Packers) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Rushing Yards

Rushing Yards 12/10/06 (16:05 ET)

Over 84.5 (-115)

 

 

 

But I've got the farm riding on IND!?!?!? Are you saying I'm gonna lose my farm?

 

 

public is on them 81%

 

i wouldn't bet on them

 

Future Wager 12/10/06 10:32 ET

10.00/10.00 Result: Pending

$10 Free Bet - LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers) Total Rushing Touchdowns vs the Broncos

Over 2 Rushing Touchdowns 12/10/06 (16:15 ET)

1-1

[X-ecutionner 0]

Those are my choice on this sunday

Indy -2 1/2 3 unit under a fG with Jacksonville team not being reliable I'm ready to take that bet any day of the week

Hou +1 1 unit I'm not going on this bandwagon . Tennessee beat Houston in Week Eight, but the Texans rolled up 427 total yards. They committed five turnovers. I don’t think there’s a lot of difference between these teams and for that reason I think there’s a little value in the favorite. Give me the Texans.

ATL -4 1 unit The spread went real far on this one but I do think that the falcons are a better team than TB I don't see how TB wins this game Rushing adv ATL passing even and D I favor ATL T/o ratio ADV ATL

Kc - 3 1 unit at home nuff said they have a good secondary I like this bet

 

Upset of the day ARI and GB Don't ask me why I just think that Arizona at home with a new attitute can surprise the no hands SEA and GB I just think that Mr favre and their nice off can beat the sorry team of SF who rides on Gore who's always injured

 

Gl to all This is my first post and hope I help people make money

 

YTD 0 0 0

[swirvenirvin 25]

Straight Wager 12/10/06 10:58 ET

Carson Palmer (Bengals) Total Passing Yards - Must Play

Total Passing Yards

Total Passing Yards 12/10/06 (13:00 ET)

Under 242.5 (-115)

 

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

Alexander vs James - who will score a TD first Shaun Alexander -170

 

Straight Wager 12/10/06 11:14 ET

Matt Jones (Jaguars) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play

Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards 12/10/06 (13:00 ET)

Under 54.5 (-130)

[phillybear 364]

I'll probably only play a couple games today. I pounded Jacksonville in the early action.

 

Playing Buffalo (+5) and San Diego (-7.5) in the later games.

[swirvenirvin 25]

 

i wouldn't bet on them

 

 

 

Sorry Gobble

[swirvenirvin 25]

Straight Wager 12/10/06 10:58 ET

Carson Palmer (Bengals) Total Passing Yards - Must Play

Total Passing Yards

Total Passing Yards 12/10/06 (13:00 ET)

Under 242.5 (-115)

 

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

Alexander vs James - who will score a TD first Shaun Alexander -170

 

Straight Wager 12/10/06 11:14 ET

Matt Jones (Jaguars) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play

Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards 12/10/06 (13:00 ET)

Under 54.5 (-130)

 

 

FOCK YOU DENNY GREEN

[BMoney 0]

i hope u also bet the over in that nutty game....

vince returns to texas? and gets 1 point vs the crappy texans? merry christmas to us?...the titans have shown the ability to be down 21-0 in games...but i think vince goes crazy...

 

the packers havent played well enough to worry about the 4 points...i stay far from their games...

 

 

i guess that WAS a christmas present to the believers....Vince-sanity....

 

maybe miami home vs ne is always a safe bet...at least with the points youll get...jason taylor alone will help u rest easy

[phillybear 364]

Taking Dallas (-7.5) for Sunday Night.

 

Looks too easy to take New Orleans with more than a TD. But their defense is not that good, missing Horn and Colston on offense most likely, so their offense is shaky as well. New Orleans has mostly beaten bad teams this year.

[R8dr Fan 87 0]

Taking Dallas (-7.5) for Sunday Night.

 

Looks too easy to take New Orleans with more than a TD. But their defense is not that good, missing Horn and Colston on offense most likely, so their offense is shaky as well. New Orleans has mostly beaten bad teams this year.

im with you on that one patna

[swirvenirvin 25]

Straight Wager 12/10/06 10:29 ET

Result: Pending

Ahman Green (Packers) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Rushing Yards

Rushing Yards 12/10/06 (16:05 ET)

Over 84.5 (-115)

public is on them 81%

 

i wouldn't bet on them

 

Future Wager 12/10/06 10:32 ET

10.00/10.00 Result: Pending

$10 Free Bet - LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers) Total Rushing Touchdowns vs the Broncos

Over 2 Rushing Touchdowns 12/10/06 (16:15 ET)

1-1

 

 

Well at least I got my $10 free bet right

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I like the Saints tonight. I'm seriously thinking of playing them straight up. Maybe it's too easy, but Romo is still a rookie and should still make some mistakes. I like McCalister and Bush in the running game opposed to Julius Jones and Marian Barber III. Both teams are playing for the #2 seed since Seattle lost to Arizona earlier. This is a big game because of that. Remember the #2 seed gets a buy in the first round and home field in the conference playoff game. Can Devery Henderson step his game up? Will Brees respond to the Dallas defensive pressure? Two teams late in the season playing for big stakes should be a smaller spread in my opinion. If the topsy turvsy NFL world stays true to its style, the Saints will win straight up. Don't forget this is a nationally televised game.

 

 

 

I'm kind of waiting to see how this line moves in these last few minutes. Remember, America loves to bet Dallas. Dallas has big names like Parcells, Owens, and just a storied history.

 

 

MY PLAY IS==========>>>>>>>>>(Saints +288)

[swirvenirvin 25]

Straight Wager 12/10/06 20:07 ET

Saints vs Cowboys - Adjusted Line and Total

Saints

Cowboys 12/10/06 (20:15 ET)

Saints -3.5 (+260)

 

NO reason i just wanted to bet