Compiler Question

[Camaro24 0]

Hey everyone. This is the first year I purchased the compiler and draft buddy system. I put all my setup information into the system and I'm kinda shocked with some of the results. (i.e. Antonio Gates rated 5th overall, but yet what it shows for his FF points are about 100 points less than #6 which is Joseph Addai) We are not a standard league, but still seems a little skewed.

 

So my question is for the people who have used this system, how close to you actually follow how this ranks people to your actual draft? Any tips or advice would be nice to hear as well.

 

Thanks!

[m4rk0 0]

Sounds to me like you did something wrong. I don't have him as #5. Did you click the "compile cheat sheet" button in the setup tab of the compiler?

[Camaro24 0]

Yup, I believe I set it up all correctly and I did hit the compile cheatsheets, but those were my results. That's why I started asking questions, the overall rankings is sorted by "value" but clearly he's less value determined under the FF points projected column.

[stlku 0]

Yup, I believe I set it up all correctly and I did hit the compile cheatsheets, but those were my results. That's why I started asking questions, the overall rankings is sorted by "value" but clearly he's less value determined under the FF points projected column.

 

What is your league scoring system?

 

I would not think that a TE at a 100 point disadvantage would be ranked at #5, something is wrong.

[Darcimer 0]

Yeah, post your scoring...

 

But..... There is nothing wrong if Gates is ranked 5th overall, that's a pretty common sight. For example, in a PPR ( 1 point per reception) league, and everything else pretty normal ( i.e 4 pt passing TD, 6 pt TD,s 1 pt per 10 yds for RB and WR and TE, 1 pt per 20 yds passing yard) Gates could very well end up ranked 5th overall, depending on your baseline, the number of teams, and roster requirements.

For example, in my 12 team league, we start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE..etc... If you leave it on "compiler recommended", Gates will be 13th overall, but if you give TE's a scoring advantage ( say 1.5 or 2 points per 10 yds), this will drastically influence Gates' value. Another big factor is if you use only 2 WR's, ( or TE's are a bigger percentage of your lineup). A third big factor is if you adjust the baseline to "last starter drafted", Gates will be bumped all the way up to #4.

 

The reason is this:

VBD drafting is based on what a player's "VALUE" is, not fantasy points. Let's assume you have a 2 team draft, and 2 players on each team, one TE and one WR. Let's also assume you know exactly how many points each player will score this coming year. ( Bear with me..)

A realistic example from last year:

 

* WR Roy Williams - 255

* TE Antonio Gates - 217

* WR Terry Glenn - 212

* TE Jason Witten - 145

 

If you had the first pick, knowing ahead of time how many fantasy points each player would score, whom would you select?

 

The correct answer is not Roy Williams, but Antonio Gates. Even though Williams scored more points, Gates was more valuable. He is more valubale, becaus eof how many MORE points he scored over his replacement would have scored ( in this case, Witten). In fact, whichever team had Gates was guaranteed to win this league. Gates plus either wide receiver outscored the opposing WR-TE pair. The reason is that Gates outscored Witten by a greater amount than Williams outscored Glenn.

 

The point here is, when you have a super-stud like Manning or Gates, there comes a point in your draft where it just does not make sense, point-wise, to skip over the selection, UNLESS!!!!...... You know the draft tendencies of your league. If you know that no one in your league is going to draft a TE until the 5th round, then by all means, do not take Gates at 5, or 20, or even 29. By this point, Gates is certainly a steal by my scoring rules, but it's your league tendencies( read, "economics") that will determine what "price" (in terms of picks) Gates will fetch. If you wait too long, someone will beat you to him, and reap the rewards.

Let's face it, most leagues are filled nowadays with people that have a relatively up-to-date cheatsheet. Your advantage will be that you KNOW when a player has fallen to a spot where is is now undervalued, and represents a huge value to you. After all, the point is to get the greatest value at every pick. If your projections are wrong, well, there isn't much we can do about that. There are alot of very smart people doing their best to give us their projections. You will never be able to draft a team without using some common sense.

As for how you can use the compiler to your advantage, you can adjust your baseline to reflect what your league does. If you have access to your leagues past drafts, ( or you can use average ADP data from the compiler, ANTSports, or Mockdraftcentral). you can try this great exercise:

 

First take the number of rounds in your draft. ( mine is 24). Take 2/3 of that number ( 16), and find out how many QB's were drafted by that round in your league. On the setup page of the compiler, there is an "overall rankings/custom baseline" box. Change the yellow "baseline adjust factor" until the "adjusted baseline rank" ( the line right below it) is equal to the # of QB's taken by round 16 (or 2/3's of the way through your draft). Do the same for RB's and all your positions, and then compile the cheatsheet. ( It doesn't matter what overall rankings method you use at this point, as long as the "adjusted baseline rank is showing the numbers you desire).

This will probably address your Gates concern to a little extent. For me, it dropped Gates 5 spots to # 9. I also notice that Gates' ADP is 3.11, so I still won't draft him there. But honestly, if you did, I would have a hard time coming up with some concrete evidence that you made a mistake. The compiler is only telling you what values the players have and where he ranks when compared to other players at different positions. It's up to you to decide whether or not other factors warrant a shift up or down in where you "actually" draft them. You may very well still get Gates in the 3rd round, and land Peyton Manning AND Reggie Wayne before the spot that the compiler was telling you to take Gates.

Personally, though, I won't be gunning for Gates, unless it's 4th round or later. But that's my league...

 

Todd A.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Thanks for the insightful and detailed post Todd! I agree with everything you've said. I'll shorten it a bit to the main points in response to Camaro24:

 

- It is possible in some league setups that Gates can vault to a value of 5th overall where you are seeing him.

 

- I wouldn't draft him there, because in all likelihood you can get him later. He's been going 3rd in most of my leagues even though his value is about early to mid-2nd. Hopefully you know your league's tendencies so you can judge accordingly.

 

- If you can get him in the 3rd, then you'll have picked up a great value for that pick.

[Darcimer 0]

Yeah, I kinda got on a roll there for a minute... I hope it made sense, it's a pretty important concept if you play fantasy.

 

I just felt obligated to spit it all out since it's taken me years to figure that out that exact answer. That variable baseline adjuster is almost a burden once you figure out how to use it and what it's telling you. Then you start searching for the "holy grail". Let me say that there really is no "perfect" baseline. The way I am doing it gives you a fairly good estimate on value tailored toward my league. But keep in mind, it will not get you your picks before the rest of the crowd. It's very close to the "compiler recommended" baseline, so I'd recommend that new users trust it.

My suspicion is that camaro24 might have used a different baseline or he has more than one backup TE ( or maybe TE is included in the flex position). I'll also point out that the compiler is projecting Gates to have over 1,000 yards this year.

 

Todd A

[Camaro24 0]

Hey guys thanks for the great information. Sorry I was away pretty much all weekend, but that helps a lot. We do only have one TE, but it is available in the flex position as well. Here is our leagues scoring system, sorry if it's really long...

 

Passing TD Pass 6 Every 25 passing yards 1

40+ yard TD pass bonus 1 50+ yard TD pass bonus 2

400+ yard passing game 2 2pt Passing Conversion 2

Interceptions Thrown -1

 

Rushing TD Rush 6 2pt Rushing Conversion 2

Every 10 rushing yards 1 40+ yard TD rush bonus 1

50+ yard TD rush bonus 2 200+ yard rushing game 2

 

Receiving TD Reception 6 2pt Receiving Conversion 2

40+ yard TD rec bonus 1 50+ yard TD rec bonus 2

Every 10 receiving yards 1 Each reception 1

200+ yard receiving game 2

 

Miscellaneous Fumble Recovered for TD 6 Each Fumble Lost -1

Kickoff Return TD 6 Punt Return TD 6

 

I loved the explanation about how Gates value is listed so high in comparison.