Do you think Santonio Holmes will be more of a stud than Housmanzadah?

[coyote-kid 0]

"The difference between Housh and Holmes for this season is minimal, at least not enough that you should be concerned that Housh will blow Holmes out of the water. In fact, I could see Holmes, arguably the Steelers' No. 1 receiver now, matching or even outproducing Housh. Holmes had the highest yards-per-catch total (18.1) of any starting wide receiver in the league last year, and his big-play ability will make him an intriguing option as he gets more passes thrown his way this season."

 

This quote comes from a mail bag analyst from maybe the #1 sports site in America.

 

I like Santonio Holmes, but how good do you think he will be this year and does he belong

in the same company as TJ? Where should each of these players be drafted?

 

TJ's numbers last year placed him 6th in WR's with 112/1143/12 (in my league his ff pts. = 240)

S. Holmes -------------------------- 20th --------------------------- 52/ 942/8 (------------------------- = 169)

 

Personally I think TJ goes in the 2nd round and Holmes in the 4th or 5 round.

Does this sound right to you?

[murf74 461]

Ummmm, NO and it's not even close. Does he have the talent to outproduce TJ, sure he does but not on a team that doesn't need to pass 40 times a game like defensiveless Cincy. And Pitt has tons of weapons to spread to, while Cincy has 2 playmakers and don't even have a RB, really.

[packerfan 0]

No. HTH.

[Raider 84 29]

He will in leagues that reward for lonf tds.

[Zee 0]

Personally I think TJ goes in the 2nd round and Holmes in the 4th or 5 round.

Does this sound right to you?

 

 

That's about what I've got. I've got Housh as late 2nd value, and Holmes as a 5th rounder.

[Barberian24 0]

That's about what I've got. I've got Housh as late 2nd value, and Holmes as a 5th rounder.

 

 

I will argue the contrary. Housh beat Holmes in yards by less than 100 despite getting twice as many targets (169 to 85). Although 18 YPC is unlikely to be repeated, any uptick in targets would probably have Holmes ahead in yards.

 

Holmes played in three less games. So if he averaged say 4 catches a game (based off his targets and catch rate), for the 3 games you get 216 yards which would beat TJ. Factor in probably one more TD and they are less than 25 pts apart.

 

Although TJ I would likely take over Holmes based on Cincys terrible D and having to pass as well as his red zone targets, the gap is a lot closer than people think.

[coyote-kid 0]

I will argue the contrary. Housh beat Holmes in yards by less than 100 despite getting twice as many targets (169 to 85). Although 18 YPC is unlikely to be repeated, any uptick in targets would probably have Holmes ahead in yards.

 

Holmes played in three less games. So if he averaged say 4 catches a game (based off his targets and catch rate), for the 3 games you get 216 yards which would beat TJ. Factor in probably one more TD and they are less than 25 pts apart.

 

Although TJ I would likely take over Holmes based on Cincys terrible D and having to pass as well as his red zone targets, the gap is a lot closer than people think.

 

 

Good point about the 3 missed games which I didn't factor into my thoughts.

However, you are wrong about yardage. Housh. had him by more than 200 yards.

 

With your numbers I calculate Holmes to have 33 more pts. in my league scoring.

216 yds = 21

12 catches over 3 more games = 0.5*12=6

1 Td = 6

Total pts. = 33, add this to his 169 and the new total is = 202 vs 240 for TJ.

That would of bumped him up to 13th place from 20th which now seems impressive on its own.

 

This thread has opened my eyes to Holmes potential this year and like him more now than before.

It also makes me think he is a great value pick sitting in 4th or 5th round.

 

Bottom line though, I would never take him over Housh. in 08 anyway...

[dogbert 0]

No because Pittsburgh doesn't throw as often. Those limited chances are enough to make me choose TJ, but Holmes is a good sleeper canidate.

[treat88 0]

Based purely on talent, Holmes is definitively more of a stud than Housh. Better into and out of his breaks, better long speed, better at beating the jam, and more of a threat after the catch.

 

Housh has very reliable hands and is fearless going after the ball, but he produces based on # of targets not talent.

 

I don't see Holmes putting up equivalents receptions, but can see him producing more yards and TD's.

 

In PPR Housh wins.

 

Traditional format....flip a coin.

[Dan 59]

The answer is . . . maybe.

 

I realize that Pittsburgh is more of a running team, but don't discount the fact that they are playing to greater balance. The "experts" that are suggesting that Roethlisberger is just a caretaker QB are wrong, and I think you're going to see the passing game expand a little there, especially with Holmes coming into his own. If Holmes becomes the primary beneficiary of that, well, then, he catches Housh.

 

On the flip side, there is an assumption that Houshmandzadeh is going to remain in that 5-10 grouping of WRs that discounts factors such as the fact that Cincinnati is absolutely a wreck of a team, in complete turmoil. Chad Johnson will probably be back; they really cannot afford for him not to be. Palmer will spread the ball more if he's going to be successful, and Housh is not his only talented target, and is arguably not even his most talented target. Will Housh stay put? I don't think so . . .

 

Just a thought or two.

 

I'm not sure I would take Holmes over Housh straight up, but with a 2-3 round differential, this is a no-brainer.

[dcgangstas 41]

No, I don't think Holmes will be more of a stud WR than Houshmandzadeh, primarily because he isn't as targeted in the red zone anywhere near the way Housh is.

 

Housh is Palmer's preferred WR of choice (in terms of targets) in the red zone, while Roethlisberger seems to prefer Ward and Heath Miller. Limas Sweed is the economy-sized WR that Big Ben has been begging for since Plax left town, and he may cut into Holmes' looks in the red zone also. Santonio will make his bones on the big play (> 25 yard passing plays).

[BringBackBernie 0]

Based purely on talent, Holmes is definitively more of a stud than Housh. Better into and out of his breaks, better long speed, better at beating the jam, and more of a threat after the catch.

 

Housh has very reliable hands and is fearless going after the ball, but he produces based on # of targets not talent.

 

I don't see Holmes putting up equivalents receptions, but can see him producing more yards and TD's.

 

In PPR Housh wins.

 

Traditional format....flip a coin.

My thoughts exactly, except I'm not sure about the TD's. Good post.

[sanders 0]

If what you guys on this board are saying holds true then I would certainly draft Holmes. If you can wait 2-3 rounds and get a guy with just slightly less fatntasy points then I'll target some other players in my earlier rounds and go for Holmes later. You do run the risk of someone drafting him just before you then though and getting stuck.

[Borat33 17]

Holmes will be the better value of the two. You can get him several rounds later and I see him having similar numbers to Housh. Holmes is a stud in the making. Believe.

[mdog1967 0]

That's about what I've got. I've got Housh as late 2nd value, and Holmes as a 5th rounder.

I hope that thinking prevails in my last draft for the season. I would be more than happy to snag Holmes in the 5th round. I wont touch Houz this year before the 5th myself.